Roku's Fibonacci drop analysisTechnical analysis
OBV keeps a steady uptrend, surprisingly... Since its price has dropped about 40%.
Fibonacci retracement has its 61.8% line at $102.
We are at a SMA(100) support.
Market moving out of growth, into value.
Moving market news
Pivotal research downgrades to $60 (SELL).
Comcast (CMCSA) is gifting its streaming box, it was selling it before at $5.
Note
* Keeping a tight stop limit, there is a great risk reward ratio.
CMCSA
CMCSA stock price forecast timing analysis.Stock investing strategies
Read more: www.pretiming.com
Investing position about Supply-Demand(S&D) strength: In Falling section of high risk & low profit
S&D strength Trend Analysis: In the midst of a rebounding trend of upward direction box pattern stock price flow marked by limited falls and upward fluctuations.
Today's S&D strength Flow: Supply-Demand(S&D) strength flow appropriate to the current trend.
D+1 Candlestick Color forecast: GREEN Candlestick
%D+1 Range forecast: 1.0% (HIGH) ~ -0.9% (LOW), 0.3% (CLOSE)
%AVG in case of rising: 1.5% (HIGH) ~ -0.3% (LOW), 1.0% (CLOSE)
%AVG in case of falling: 0.7% (HIGH) ~ -1.5% (LOW), -0.8% (CLOSE)
Stock Price Forecast Timing Criteria: Stock price forecast timing is analyzed based on pretiming algorithm of Supply-Demand(S&D) strength.
COMCAST Bearish Mode ONThe stock dropped below the 200 and 50-day moving average. My PV is at $42 a share, but in my case, I’m already short on it and I'll wait to take some actions for a proper chance to buy around $32.83 and then take profit around $42. Wall Street is targeting this share around $43.
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Comcast mid-term long callComcast (CMCSA) has seen a 7% price decline since earnings, even though they recorded better-than-expected returns and revenue. They have also recently made a hostile bid for the assets of 21st Century Fox, threatening Disneys current bid for the company. The price is currently at a level of previous support. I expect an upward price movement in the next few weeks.
Comcast Will Give Some BackComcast has been in a bullish trend since January 2016. During this course of this trend, the stock has moved down after hitting resistance. The stock is currently at this point of resistance and should follow suit by moving down. Near-term downward movement is outlined below.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 72.7044. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is near overbought levels. The last two times the stock spike up to its current resistance trendline, the RSI was also at similar levels the stock was at on May 30. Both of these resistance and RSI indicators led to a 4% drop for the stock. This is the first indicator of potential near-term downward movement.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 18.8524. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI has been trending up, and there is no telling where its future direction shall go.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.2278 and the negative is at 0.7091. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. These indicators have currently spiked favorably to the upside. This won't last forever, but as long as the positive stays above the negative this could slow any drop in the stock.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 91.0208 and D value is 95.4541. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. This indicator is clearly overbought. The last four times this indicator reached this point the stock fell. Similar to the RSI analysis above, This overbought level led to a 4% decline in the stock over the following weeks and the same is expected in our current case. This is the second indicator of potential near-term downward movement.
The stock is at its resistance point, the RSI and stochastic are flashing overbought. These three indicators have been accurate when occurring together during the stock's year and a half bull trend. Natural up and down movement is common in any bull or bear trend. The stock has a history of bouncing off its current resistance level down to one of two support levels before moving up again. The solid yellow line support on the bottom may not occur this time, but the dotted white line is very plausible.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 3% over the next 32 trading days if not sooner.
CMCSA: Take the not too crowded shortLet's enter shorts in CMCSA at market price, stop loss is 68.32. Looks like a good chance with bearish RgMov signals pointing to further downside, while the daily chart uptrend turns around dropping under the Key Earnings Support level above. This is a very conservative stop loss, but I prefer to take small risks when it comes to fighting the trend.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.