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CME's painting the picture of BTC's next move perhaps BTCUSD Ok here’s my BTC theory... The CMEs closed on Friday with BTC at 10660. That means as long as we stay under that price on the weekend, a new gap up to that number will be created. There’s the existing gap between 9670-9930 and we have wicked down there a couple times so far this weekend. If we stay around the area we are now (10,300ish) then I have a feeling come Monday CMEs will close the lower gap and then shoot up to close this weekends gap. So therefore I’m still currently bullish looking for 9600-10k entries. **Bitcoin CME Futures Gaps Are Filled With 95% Certainty, But Trading Them Is Risky
CME:BTC1!Long
by TradeTravelChill
Bitcoin Price Action vs the CME GapThe reason I started looking into this is because I was wondering if there could be a scenario where the price of bitcoin could stay relatively close to $10k but the CME price when it opens on Sunday gaps down passed the price of bitcoin filling the gap from July then bounce back up to near the current price of BTC. The CME bitcoin futures price closed today at $10,620 so if The upper chart simply shows the CME gap which formed from the close on July 24th to the open on July 26th and has yet to be filled. The bottom chart shows what the price of bitcoin did during the hours that the CME was closed causing the CME to respond with a gap. I was curious how close the CME price came to the bitcoin spot price when it gaped, I was looking for any over shoot. Looking at the data it looks like the CME price gaped very close to the spot price with little if any over shoot. It is possible that the price of bitcoin over the weekend could rise instead of dropping back to or under $10k. As close as the price is to the gap right now I feel pretty strongly that the price of BTC is more likely to drop so that the gap can be filled rather then take off higher from here leaving the gap unfilled.
CME:BTC1!
by Bigsky_Crypto
2
[Beginners & Intermediate] Where to learn about trading?I will introduce this by reminding that this is not school and not a 9 to 5 job either. No one will just hand over a strategy and go "ok go make some money instead of me now", there are a few strategy out there on the internet an never know one might have an edge, but it's not even worth it to spend hours looking for something. And makes no sense, "too lazy to find one on my own so I spend hours looking for the holy grail on the internet". People got brainwashed to learn something by heart at school, go to work from 9 to 5 - this must be why there are so many day traders, they do not know how to function differently than 9 to 5 -, get a wage every month, the more you do the bigger the reward... Real life does not work like this. Even the cheetah know this. While they run at formula 1 speeds, they still stalk their prey and are real careful and plan ahead and make sure they have a good risk to reward and high probabilities of catching their (big) prey. And then they protect it. They do not leave carcasses lying around and spend all their time chasing prey like idiots. It's like with Einstein, no one told him "k now go prove that Newton gravity theory is false, this is how you will do it". There are plenty of different type of strategy, merger arbitrage, quantitative systematic, discretionary, a combination of both (I think this is what I do), stock long bias, stock short bias (haha), and so on. But in any case you have to do your own research. Arbitrage means analysing data and looking for numbers in sheets of numbers, quant & discretionary means analysing data and looking for numbers in sheets of numbers, and so on. Still you have to understand how markets work, what futures are and are not if you trade those, the different terms, compounding (it does not just mean "waow I make lots of money"), learn that after losing 20% to get back to breakeven you need to make 25%, that markets gap, markets change... Also you need to get used to tools, used to the places you'll get your info from, and constently be learning from especially at some point we do want to learn how to invest to get some passive income because we do not know if we will still be making money 5 years from now. The road is long, so be sure you are legit interested, and it is as important to have reliable sources as it is to make it fun & interesting, because the road is real long. 1- At the source Biggest exchange, and best website: The CME. ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Both the best for beginners, and for advanced. www.cmegroup.com The site is huge. They have what is at human scale infinite data. And it is well designed. They even have some courses, webinars, and more. Here you can find courses for each of their asset classes, and if you select none you got generic ones too. All free. Free and reliable. The problem with trolls that sell $5000 education is it is often infested with errors, including very dangerous ones. Maybe the cme is going to get greedy seing millions of new fresh amateur liquidity providers, and start charging for their content. I hope not. Thinking of it, this sort of people is not looking for some sober information dense content, but for flashy lights and "get abs in 30 days with no efforts lose 10 pounds a week make 10% every day". www.cmegroup.com They even have an introduction to dairy, in 13 modules. www.cmegroup.com We live in the day of big data funds, and they charge a few hundred to a few thousand dollars for access to TB of data on their products. Bitcoin and a few other featured/new products are free. datamine.cmegroup.com Crypto is free xd but who cares? Crypto traders won't download this ever will they? Not like there is enough data to get anything out of it, but still can be interesting to look at. If you do not know where to start you can (and probably should if you trade futures) spend thousands of hours on the CME website alone, looking at various info and going throught courses (I'd recommend starting with just a handful of assets and getting into those + taking a quick look at others for greater understanding). The second biggest exchange group is the ICE. They operate the Intercontinental Exchange (no kidding) and the famous New York Stock Exchange. The ICE is king on a few futures: - The big non grain 4 agri: Cotton, Cocoa, Sugar, Coffee. Unless another exchange steals this it is unlikely it will ever disappear, did you know that over 1000 years ago the most traded product after gold was Kola nuts? People were already addicted to "chocolate & coffee" back then. Anything that binds to opiod receptors & is socially acceptable = invest for 100 generations. Sugar is sugar obviously. I think those are the most interesting products they have. - Brent Oil, Natural Gas variations - Equity derivatives (FTSE, FANG) - The Euribor I think those are the main ones. Their site just makes me angry. I want to punch my screen everytime I go there unless I use a direct link and go straight for the info I want. They list their futures so bad so wrong, they have them literally hidden in a list of 100 other ones no one cares about and of course why show volumes so people can get there faster or why put them at the top of the list when you can rather have people waste time every single time? There might be some things no one is looking at in some ignored assets... But one has to get past the anger... They sometimes hide the central, important info, and blind you with absolutely useless and stupid things. Even the dumbest things... I clic on one of their links then the site buttons just move! Why are they not in the same corner? Why is every page built a little differently? Not completely different, but just enough to annoy you. I go on the main page for a CME future I directly see volumes & for the past days and open interest and for each expiry, with the ICE... It's a 5 months projects, I have to clic on some links that are so not explicit at all, then there is another list of links and I always end up on the wrong one and so on. Well I think it improved, it is not as irritating and useless as it used to be. Maybe another 10 years and they enter the 21st century? Recently their charts on tradingview went from EOD to regular, I don't know how that happened, but this sort of thing can help them get into the spotlight a bit more, retail has no interest whatsoever in their futures except maybe Brent so it might not be very helpful, but it is a start. www.theice.com They offer some insights that are pretty helpful. Nah I'm joking they are useless like the rest of the site. www.theice.com Industrial metals are not popular they are less popular than some rando chinese mlm stock (with retail I mean, many of the metals have volumes of over 5 bil a day), but I will link the LME site anyway, it is well designed, and they have plenty of useful ressources. www.lme.com The biggest ones are I think Aluminum, Nickel, Zinc. Nickel has an adv of 10 billion usd which is more than silver & copper, and was very roughly twice the silver volume until recently where it exploded. Volumes have been going up, maybe in large part due to EV batteries needing this metal, and lots of mines getting opened in south america. The limitation for amateurs to get into this is it is priced in tonnes (1 future = 6) and I do not think there are brokers with minimum sizes below 1 unit (tonne). The price being $15000 and min tick size $5 eliminates alot of participants. The spread alone would already be on the min order $30. That is 1% of a 3 grands account so forget it. Another one I really liked the chart of is Zinc, but I did not look much into it. Interesting site even if it is more for advanced participants, there are no e-mini-ultra-super-micro-get-started-with-your-lunch-money-no-experience-required s&p for baby accounts like the CME did recently (e-mini was not small enough for the "legends" to gamble). For FX there is no "at the source". But interesting places would be GS website, they publish public reports sometimes, the international bankers with the imf & bis, the fed websites have alot of info, but there is no "learn trading" or market data there. And FX does not have all its info available if you are not part of a bank. So objectively it is probably harder to get into. The FED (one of them) published a report on patterns in charts, their conclusions are "sometimes head and shoulders work". They have some info. A little of verified tested and legit info is better than tons of worthless crap filled with mistakes a marketting troll put together. Morgan Stanley... Here is a pdf from them with performances from hedge funds (max drawdown, sharpe ratio, returns), shows what is possible and realistic. www.morganstanley.com Then for stocks there are all kinds of places. The nyse I never go to and is as ugly as the ice website, probably as bad too. www.nyse.com The nasdaq that was always down when I used to check. News, short interest (They showed you that half the planet was shorting Tesla a year ago), all the important stock info you would expect... www.nasdaq.com For crypto: nothing. There simply is nowhere to go to. Satoshi whitepaper maybe. The CME & Nasdaq website have a little on crypto so might as well go there check it out (I haven't, no idea what is inside). Who I would not recommend on the "at the source" side: Brokers. I mean... lol brokers come on. 2- Specialised websites There is already enough to be busy for several thousand hours in 1-, but there is more. First there is tradingview. Not sure if I wanted to put them in social networks or here. You will find all kindz of people making all kindz of gainz- I mean losses. It's a place to exchange ideas, see what others are doing, learn crowd psychology... And they have the most ergonomic convenient charting service. Support page to find how to use the tools and ... I had to link something. www.tradingview.com Babypips is offering an education on forex in 348 lessons (free), they have quizz also. Remember to never take anything as reality, in general I mean not them in particular. Have the chart & source data at the tip of your finger. Completing this should take a good 500 hours. Since you are not just rush reading it and seing for yourself on charts how things play out. Doable in 30 days if you spend 16 hours a day on it. Maybe faster if you skip the indicators part, but nah everyone should look at those at least once. Prime brokers on their PF offer indicators and pros use them (especially small funds) so if it helps... I think most PM use at least some indicators they just don't over-rely on them and not any indicator. And it is interesting, you might indirectly learn something, also early on maaaaybe they can help because you are not experienced enough to see with the naked eye. www.babypips.com Investing dot com. Now with free ebooks! www.investing.com Investopedia has all sorts of definitions and articles www.investopedia.com 3- Social networks MyFxBook contains the best systems that go from the top followed to the top discussed when they go to zero. Coinflip outliers get popular, go to zero, get most discussed, disappear. There is no big "went to zero recently" at the moment, but they happen all the time. Some might not go to zero because they found a bug with a broker and are exploiting it until it gets fixed. Some people also cheat the results are fake, if you look for it you can find it explained how it works. If seing huge results makes you sad, then stay away. I only check from time to time to see fools blow up. www.myfxbook.com www.myfxbook.com Forexfactory, pretty classic, with calendars forums and all, they have variants of the site for stocks & for commodities www.forexfactory.com EliteTraders www.elitetrader.com Trade2Win I never go there not flashy and full of dumb trolls enough for me, must mean it's half decent. I get most of my entertainement elsewhere, and I don't want to say I know everything but I don't really need tips - that are always the same ones - anymore. www.trade2win.com Stocktwits stocktwits.com Then there are also youtube channels. Some I like are: - The ukspreadbetting channel, they have interviews with traders, and for the past couple of years Mark has been pumping out videos at an inhuman rate. - MoneyWeek, especially their old videos which are also the most popular - Patrick Boyle channel, he is quantitative speculator (he analyses data and looks for pattern) that worked with Soros I discovered his channel recently he was being interviewed and cracking up about "fast car trading educators". "Patrick Boyle is a hedge fund manager, a university professor and a former investment banker." - OBVIOUSLY Peter Schiff, GoldSilver (w/ Mike Maloney), and any permabear I can get my hands on will be a favorite ^^ - Dan Pena videos for the screaming - Ricky Gutierrez, Timothy Sykes, Tai Lopez, FxLifeStyle Forex for... well let's just leave it there shall we? There are plenty of channels. The list could go on. 4- Books & other tools Math & stats sites are usually pretty safe. The sort of people that wants to get rich quick is not the sort of people that goes to those ;) They're not infested with wolfs of wall street advice. Books are boring but some I know of and are good are Market Wizards, Reminiscences of a stock operator, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. You can find the last 2 on the internet as free pdf. A probability calculator is here (to estimate odds of drawdown, and other things): vassarstats.net Well tradingview, excel, and the printscreen button. 5- Expensive educators I don't want to only bash them, hey even pro athletes and gamers have coaches and mentors right? It makes little sense to me for a novice that knows nothing to go pay hundreds or thousands to learn basics that are out there for free. I would at least pick someone with credentials, and be aware that because someone was a floor traders or a market maker in a bank, or a trader only supposed to execute clients orders like Nick Leeson, does not mean they know how to make money speculating (especially if they are Nick Learned his Lesson). Chances are they don't, they tried but they just can't because not every one can make it into one of the hardest games. There will always be people that want to lose 30 kilos in 30 days and want quick abs and so the scammers will keep proliferating, can't even blame them. Just get in front of a chart and grind your way up noting what happened everytime specific conditions came together checking how often it worked out and what was the payout and far did it go in the wrong direction first, find the point where the SL is the most optimal for WR & RR, run stat tools and note everything about it. Log your trades, gain experience, read about economic news, keep learning, keep analysing charts, work on your routine, get more organised, design ways to decide you will look at a specific asset, then design your method for building an opinion on it based on your vast database of probabilities, intuition, macro conditions etc. It's not that hard. You either want to be a financial speculator or you don't. And this is what it is. You can't go for a job but without doing that job and constantly looking for tricks to do anything but that job. Or just go try to become a multi millionaire golf player without ever picking up a club, at least you'll get some fresh air. Same goes for going for it but expecting the journey to last 200 hours and then that's it you are profitable and can now relax on your expensive boat delusional to the max 😆
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by MrRenev
2020 > 2021 CME Cheat SheetCME Cheat Sheet. Date > Ticker > Duration > Settlement. Aug 2020 BTCQ20 02 Mar 2020 - 28 Aug 2020 - 31 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 BTCU20 30 Mar 2020 - 25 Sep 2020 - 28 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 BTCV20 27 Apr 2020 - 30 Oct 2020 - 02 Nov 2020 Nov 2020 BTCX20 01 Jun 2020 - 27 Nov 2020 - 30 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 BTCZ20 16 Dec 2019 - 24 Dec 2020 - 28 Dec 2020 Jan 2021 BTCF21 03 Aug 2020 29 Jan 2021 - 01 Feb 2021 Feb 2021 BTCG21 31 Aug 2020 26 Feb 2021 - 01 Mar 2021 Dec 2021 BTCZ21 30 Dec 2019 31 Dec 2021 - 03 Jan 2022
by The_Paradoxed_Prophet
Gold: Strong bullish sentiment in the hobby trader communityLots of big bulls now in the retail community. Bad sign. Here are the areas with buyers: Notice the small fish were net short at the bottom. Pathetic. First they think the "bull market is back" inside of a drawn out distribution pattern. Second they "have strong hands" and "DCA average down" catching falling knives. Third they get wiped out. Fourth they "learn their lesson" and angrilly short the bottom. Fifth they attempt to slit their wrists. And swear they'll never trade again. I am not making this up man. You can see the volumes for yourself. 🤣 The market really has this ability to find anyone breaking point and make them go "I am done. I can't take anymore." Regardless of the price, regarless of any rational consideration. They'll sell at the good support they dreamt of buying 1 year ago and they'll say "I know but I don't care". Alot of people are thinking "the pullbacks will be smaller than you expect you will keep chasing it and not be able to buy" and will chase the price and so same as 2008. It will last forever and go back and forth. Maybe the USD could get strong in the meantime. How many weeks of months it will take I do not know. But the area I am interest in is around 1700. There are virtually no buyers before 1800! And as we have seen both large speculators and hedgers have shown no interest for these prices. Let all the struggling gambling small retail traders that think they are the new George Soros go try and be heros that think they can outsmart the whole market. There probably are noobs getting all excited that think this 1 buy will turn them into Soros or Jim Rogers and they have to rush and cannot afford to miss. Sure, some hedge funds might start finally showing interest from now one, but it will be like a snowball, and they won't start putting their feet in the water just because Berkshire bought a few gold stocks. Not like "don't worry the cavalry is here" and just solo charge head first all alone and save the day. I am not interested in doing business if I do not have numerical superiority on my side. That simple. I choose the day of the battle (well within what the market decides for me). I choose who I fight with. I choose how much I risk. It's all me. We will fight on my terms, where I want, and when I want. And if I say retreat we retreat. Hard to lose that way xd Almost feels like cheating. Absolute strategic superiority. Use all information available and pick your battles. And one last point, just because I think gold will take a big plunge does not mean I am getting all excited and want to short it. Corrections are often noise. I do not conduct business into noise.
TVC:GOLDShort
by MrRenev
12
Have we really broken out?CME Futures chart of Bitcoin, regular scale, on the weekly time frame. If we connect the weekly candle (not the all time high) to the other highs we can see a triangle formation that hasn't broken out yet. We also see the futures gap (orange line) corresponding with the weekly EMA ribbon, which we like to come back to during bull markets (see 2017). I think we will come down and close the gap while bouncing of the EMA ribbon. Lets see how it plays out....
CME:BTC1!Short
by Mamocoin
1