Volumes. Why every trader should be able to work with them.The third “stream” of incoming real data, which simply cannot be ignored when analyzing a chart, is volumes. I’ll try to explain why the third stream, what are the first two.
On any chart of a trading instrument there are two scales, price and time. These are two real and independent incoming data streams.
All Technical Analysis studies them inside and out.
Price behavior is studied in the form of graphic figures, support/resistance levels, candlestick analysis and patterns, trend lines and channels, the movement of waves of price movement, using indicators, Renko charts, tic-tac-toe, etc. and so on.
The time scale is divided into seasonality, quarters, trading sessions, sessions for hours before and after lunch, and simply into hours and minutes of possible manipulations (in ICT smartmoney, for example, Kill zones, macros).
I would call volumes the third stream of data, the “3rd scale on the chart.”
This is an independent and independent flow of data about the turnover of money, or more precisely, contracts traded at a certain time and at a certain price.
All indicators and volume analysis tools do not depend on price and time in the direct sense. They work with their data coming from the exchange.
A clear example... Any oscillator, for example, depends on the price, is calculated using a formula based on the price value, and produces a certain “averaged” option.” The cumulative delta curve is constructed based on data on the number of contracts traded from the exchange, and does not depend in any way on the price value; it has its own data.
Volumes also include not only analysis using various indicators and clusters. And the ability to work with COT reports, open interest and other data from CME. This is also data on contracts traded by different groups of participants.
And understanding how options work, all markets are closely related and influence each other. There are many complex risk hedging designs. Nobody wants to lose money.
And I think ignoring this data flow and not being able to work with it is, at the very least, stupid.
And simply, isn’t it interesting to look inside a candle or figure to see what’s really going on there? The price is in a “triangle or sideways”, accumulation/distribution is taking place, but is anything really happening there? Are you waiting for a rollback to imbalance (FVG), but is there this imbalance there? Are you waiting for a reaction to a level, “liquidity withdrawal”, order block, but is there something or someone inside the reaction or not?
By the way, I don’t know the fourth data stream, if you know, please let me know. I'll be happy to study it.
I hope the information will be useful. Don't forget to like, subscribe, share with friends, leave comments. All you have to do is click a button, and I love seeing feedback. Thank you.
Cme!
Three Factors Keeping Oil Prices in CheckAT A GLANCE:
Despite ongoing geopolitical conflict, oil prices and volatility are relatively low
A rise in U.S. crude production and weak demand in China are helping oil inventories maintain average levels
Considering many factors like the Russia-Ukraine war, OPEC+ cutting production by 3.6 million barrels per day and conflict in the Middle East, many traders might be surprised to find out that oil prices are only around $82 per barrel and that implied volatility on crude options are trading at relatively low levels below 40%.
Inventories Remain at Average Levels
So why are crude oil prices not higher and more volatile? Part of the answer lies in inventories. Crude and product inventories are right around their seasonally adjusted averages for the past five years. This suggests that at least some cushion exists in the event of a supply disruption.
Given that oil production is about 3.5% lower globally than it would have been without OPEC+ production cuts, how is it possible that oil inventories are still at average levels? There are two reasons. First, a boom in U.S. production has replaced about one third of what OPEC cut.
The second reason is weak demand. China buys about 10 million barrels per day in the international markets, and its economy has been growing much more slowly than it was a few years ago. Slow growth in China often hits oil prices with a lag of about 12 months and may be among the factors preventing a further rise in global crude prices.
Higher Prices Expected?
That said, traders are displaying some signs of nervousness. The skew on CME Group’s WTI CVOL index is quite positive at the moment, suggesting that some traders are buying out of the money call options to protect themselves from the possibility of much higher prices.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
COT reports + SMT. How to determine the long-term trend (BIAS).A pattern in the COT reporting curve to determine long-term trend or bias (BIAS). With a scope from several weeks to months. Of course, reports arrive with a delay, but on a long-term scale this is not a big problem.
Many people use divergences, or SMT in the teachings of Smartmoney Michael Huddleston (ICT), when analyzing charts. Why not use COT and divergence reports together as a useful chart analysis tool.
Everyone probably noticed that the positions of Commercial traders in the curve constructed from reports coincides with the price movement (there is some direct correlation, and a large one). After a long observation and playing with the scale, obvious discrepancies in correlations and emerging divergences (SMT) caught my eye. And very often at the peaks of movements, followed by a reversal.
Data reports are of course released once a week. Therefore, tracking such SMTs can be used as an additional factor to determine bias in the analysis of higher time frames. And already having a bias for the next few weeks, or even a couple of months. You can look for signals in trades with confirmation on lower timeframes.
I like these divergences, they are built on an indicator that is completely independent of price. unlike any RSI, Stochastics, etc.
The curve is constructed solely based on trading volumes on the CME exchange, and does not depend in any way on the price, therefore it does not follow the price further to infinity. This is a direct correlation of two different data streams, and their divergence (divergence).
I think I’ll make a separate short article about “data streams”, what I mean by this.
And finally, of course, the tool is not the holy grail. But with a proper and adequate approach in skillful hands, it is a very good tool that can be kept in mind during a complex analysis of charts. At a minimum, if divergence occurs, you can be wary and reconsider your plans.
I hope the information will be useful. Don't forget to like, subscribe, share with friends, leave comments. All you have to do is click a button, and I love seeing feedback. Thank you.
Gap closed on Bitcoin futures.With a candle that can be seen as a hammer, the price closed the gap by taking buy orders that were in the majority compared to sells, the candle is evident. In the related analysis I had written that it would be a very useful level, given that gaps often work well as supports or resistances, in this case it has become a very useful support, a perforation of the minimum of this candle would be a sign of weakness, but let's see better the context in which we find ourselves.
At this moment the price of btc is correcting in the medium term (2/3 months), therefore faced with a movement of approximately 88 days, a correction could occur (which has drawn a new high) linked to this cycle, of course if if the scenario changes, the session count would also change. So far the price is moving higher and there is no reason to think otherwise, so my bullish hypothesis or scenario continues to be useful in understanding where we are now. Possible even very violent increases could appear before long, we are at the end of this correction which has not yet given the final blow, the classic strong decline, unless it was this weekly candle which we can call hammer, the last decline of the correction. Now we need caution and above all trust in the trend.
BTC: Long at Breakout or Sell at Breaker Block?Assessing two potential scenarios for BTC, my bias leans bullish. The recent closure of the CME gap and successful liquidity sweep above the gap contribute to this optimistic outlook.
However, a critical factor to consider is the breaker block, particularly as it aligns with a corrective wave level, creating confluence for the short side. Monitoring the market's response to this level is crucial, as a retracement might occur, possibly heading towards the 36k-32k range. Staying adaptable to evolving market dynamics is key in navigating these scenarios.
Bitcoin Weekly CME Gaps 2019 - 2024Here I've highlighted all the weekly CME gaps for Bitcion, showing all but One have now filled.
Technically, there's still one open just under $10,000 at / around $9750.
Unlikely this will ever fill at this point, but as of today Bitcoin filled the recent gap just under $40,000, which clears Bitcoin for runing higher.
However I still believe we'll re-test $38,000, followed by a bounce.
And potentially, if not likely, a deeper drop to re-test $32k before the bull run ensues.
Interesting chart just showing how often these do back-fill and re-test.
BITCOIN GAPS IN PERFECT LOCATION!!?! Still Bullish!There are 2 gaps on the #CME that will most likely get filled.
A short move up to fill the most recent gap , then a move down to fill the gap around $39500.
This will still keep #Bitcoin in an HTF uptrend.
Calculate Your Risk/Reward so you don't lose more than 1% of your account per trade.
Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT.
Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below!
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
What’s ahead for the dollar?As the year draws to a close, it's an opportune time to evaluate the potential trajectory of the dollar going forward.
From a broader perspective, we anticipate a regime shift for the dollar in 2024, potentially marking significant turning points for the major dollar pairs. Notably, since the 1990s, each instance when real rates crossed the 1% threshold, the dollar experienced an average sustained fall of approximately 18% over around 340 days. The combination of aggressive hikes and lower inflation has now pushed real rates clearly above the 1% mark, but the dollar’s reaction thus far has been rather muted when considering the past 3 reactions.
This observation aligns with our cyclical analysis of the dollar. Historically, the dollar index has demonstrated a recurring cycle of approximately 3.5 years, often bottoming out at the end of most cycles.
Furthermore, the dollar index has recently dipped below the crucial 103 resistance level, a significant benchmark since the 1990s.
In light of a potential weaker dollar in 2024, we're exploring various strategic positions. At present, the NZDUSD pair, in particular, stands out due to its compelling technical setup and policy divergence.
Currently both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are testing their 3-year resistance levels.
Given the current inflation and interest rate scenarios, we find the NZDUSD pair more appealing. New Zealand's inflation rate remains relatively high compared to the US, while their policy rates are almost identical. Moreover, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained its hawkish stance in the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting, whereas the Federal Reserve has begun hinting at possible rate cuts in 2024. Such divergence in policy should favor the NZDUSD pair as rate differentials shift towards the NZD.
Hence, considering the weaker outlook for the Dollar in 2024, combined with the technical setup in the NZDUSD's price action and the emerging policy divergence, we lean bullish on the NZDUSD. To express this view, we can go long the CME New Zealand Dollar Futures at the current price level of 0.6247, take profit at 0.6800 and stop at 0.6050. Each 0.00005-point move is 5 USD.
With that, we wrap up our last piece for 2023. We wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
www.cmegroup.com
Bitcoin Has To Fill Some December GAPsA CME gap for bitcoin refers to a price discrepancy that occurs on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange bitcoin futures chart between the closing price of one trading day and the opening price of the next trading day.
Gaps occur because the bitcoin spot market trades 24/7 on various centralized exchanges, from which CME derives its Mark Price, while the futures market only trades Sunday through Friday, from 6:00 pm to 5:00 pm ET.
Some believe that gaps on the CME chart can act as significant support or resistance levels, as prices typically tend to fill the gap at a future date. Others argue that CME gaps are simply a technical phenomenon with no real predictive value.
Bitcon CME Futures chart made some GAPs in December, which can get filled in upcoming days/weeks and it can be very interesting to follow. We think that wave C can now fill the GAP from December 3rd and then when correction is completed and bulls back in play, then it can fill the GAPs from December 17 and December 10.
Is the Santa Claus Rally on Its Way Again?The lights, carols and the last FOMC of the year, you know the drill by now, Christmas is here soon!
As we head into the year's end, it's the perfect time to revisit an old idea we had last Christmas. In our piece last December titled “ Is the Santa Claus rally real? ” we explored the concept of the Santa Claus rally, discussing why and how a modified version might work.
To recap, last year we proposed examining the Santa Claus rally through a spread between the S&P500 and the Nikkei, rather than focusing solely on either the S&P or Nikkei alone. This approach was based on several reasons:
1) Holiday Impact: The Christmas holiday holds greater cultural importance in the US, likely resulting in more holiday observance in the US compared to Japan.
2) Diverging Monetary Policies: The Bank of Japan is set to meet next week, and while no change in the policy rate is expected, we're looking for any hints on the timing of an exit from negative interest rates. Conversely, the Federal Reserve has just signalled expectations of up to 75bps rate cuts in 2024, marking a policy shift. These differing policies could influence equities in their respective markets differently.
3) Difference in Accounting/Financial Years: Different accounting practices and book closure dates mean that institutional traders in each market will have varying flows as they prepare to close positions for the financial year.
4) January Effect Front-Running: Investors re-establishing positions after December's tax loss harvesting.
With policy directions now swapping, optimism for this strategy's success is higher this year. The Federal Reserve signalling an end to hikes, has resulted in the S&P500 surging closer to previous all-time highs.
Meanwhile, the USDJPY has collapsed from its high of 152, as views grow that the BOJ might end its negative interest rate policy sooner than expected, as alluded to by BOJ Governor Ueda.
This Christmas, we'll compare what happened last Christmas to see if a similar pattern emerges this year.
A review of last year's Christmas effect shows that the spread rose roughly 12% from mid-December to mid-February.
This result adds to the current streak of a 60%-win rate since 2013, now improving to 63% with a simple average return of about 33%.
Examining each index individually, we find that periods where the S&P 500’s RSI is above 75 and the Nikkei 225’s RSI is around 50 have generally preceded critical junctures where the S&P 500 continues to rise while the Nikkei remains rangebound or falls.
Additionally, observing the S&P500 and Nikkei 225 spread, we notice an ascending triangle pattern, with current price action breaking above. An ascending triangle is typically associated with bullish continuation.
Considering the broad macro factors, such as changing monetary policy stances aligning with the historical behavior of the Santa Claus rally, along with a bullish technical setup, we lean bullish on this spread. To express this bullish view, one could go long on the E-mini S&P 500 Futures and short on the Nikkei/USD Futures. At the current price levels, the notional value of one S&P 500 Futures contract is 4771*50 = 238550 and the notional for the Nikkei futures is 33010*5 = 165050, hence to match the notional we can trade 2 S&P 500 Futures contracts against 3 Nikkei Futures contract with the intent of holding the position from now till the middle of February.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
www.cmegroup.com
www.cmegroup.com
www.fool.com
www.jstor.org
Natural Gas: A look at term structureLast week , we examined Natural Gas from a seasonality perspective. This week, we aim to extend that discussion and explore other ways to implement a similar view.
To quickly recap: From a seasonality standpoint, we identified short-term opportunities for a downward move in Natural Gas. Factors such as higher-than-normal storage levels, unseasonably warm weather, and the typical price trends from December to January suggest a potential decline in prices. Additionally, prices have recently broken past initial short-term support, now trading below the $3 handle.
Another perspective worth considering is the term structure. Term structure refers to the difference between futures prices of various maturities of commodity futures. It is visualized by plotting the prices of different expiry contracts, forming what we refer to as the term structure curve.
The term structure reveals other insight that we can explore, starting with the basic slope, which can be categorized as flat, upward sloping, or downward sloping. Understanding these can reveal potential mispricing or provide a clearer picture of market expectations at different future points.
Contango
An upward-sloping term structure, known as "Contango", occurs where contracts closer to expiry are priced cheaper relative to those further from expiry. This can be attributed to factors like storage costs where contracts further from expiry might trade at higher prices due to the associated storage expenses. Sellers, therefore, demand higher prices to offset these costs.
Backwardation
A downward-sloping term structure, termed “Backwardation,” happens when prices in the near months are higher than those further from expiry. This might occur for various reasons such as a benefit to owning the physical material, also known as convenience yield or even just short-term demand pressures.
Term Structure
With a rough idea of contango and backwardation in mind, we can now look at Natural Gas term structure.
The chart above shows the term structure for natural gas 1 year ago, 6 months ago and yesterday.
Here we can see the 3 distinct shapes for the term structure, especially when we focus on the front part of the term structure. With the term structure a year ago deeply in backwardation, 6 months ago in contango and current term structure in a generally flat shape. We also observe that term structure shapes can change quite rapidly hence it can be valuable to look at the shape of the curve to place strategies on the term structure.
For instance, if we maintain a short-term bearish but long-term bullish view, one strategy could be to short the front part of the curve while going long on the back part. This can be achieved by creating a Jan – Jun 2024 calendar spread, going short on the Jan 2024 contract and long on the Jun 2024 contract.
What’s interesting when we look at the Calendar spread vs the outright price moves in the individual leg is that the direction of the outright contract moves generally dictates the direction of the calendar spread. Again, this could happen for a couple of reasons, one being that trading activity often concentrates on the front part of the term structure for liquidity reasons, hence, making the front part of the term structure generally more reactive than the back part of the term structure.
But why trade the calendar spread instead of the outright?
Reduced Margin
Benefits of trading the calendar spread instead of the individual month contract include lowered margin requirements due to margin offsets from CME, reducing the margin needed compared to outright positions.
Reduced sensitivity to risk/black swan events
Both long and short positions in a spread will react together to risk events, albeit to different magnitudes, mitigating overall exposure. For example, during the Natural Gas rally in 2021, while outright prices increased from $2.5 to $9.5, the Jan – Jun 2023 calendar spread only increased by $1 over the same period. Similarly, on the decline, outright prices fell close to $8, but the calendar spread fell by only $0.74. This relatively controlled price swing allows for more manageable risk compared to outright contracts.
Hence to express our short-term bearish but long-term bullish view, we can take a short position on the CME Henry Hub Natural Gas January 2024 Futures and a long position on the CME Henry Hub Natural Gas June 2024 Futures at the current level of 0.11.
The same position can also be expressed using the newly launched (on 6 November 2023) CME Micro Natural Gas. At 1/10 the size of the full-sized contract, the margin requirements to set up a position become more manageable.
Micro Natural Gas Futures Margin Requirements
Alongside the lowered margin requirements, it offers the opportunity to tactically average into a position to achieve a better average entry price for the same amount of capital.
Each 0.001 point move in the full-sized Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures is 10 USD while a move in the Micro Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures is 1 USD.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
www.cmegroup.com
www.cmegroup.com
www.cmegroup.com
www.cmegroup.com
Ethereum - A Sucker's Rally Before The Bitter WinterWhoever is shorting crypto right now probably has a death wish. And this isn't because there's going to be some new paradigm replacement of the USD or because institutions finally see the value of digital currency BECAUSE BLACKROCK ETF.
It's because Bitcoin, Ethereum, and all the other chains are going to zero, because they're in the way of the advent of Central Bank Digital Currencies, which are needed to underpin the worldwide roll out of the Chinese Communist Party's social credit system.
You shouldn't have faith in digital currency. There's nothing decentralized about them. It's not a free market. They're not saving you from anything.
The people who like them like them because they're getting Monero payments on the sly for being part of Palestine (Hamas)/Antifa/BLM events, which they can use to buy all sorts of horrific stuff on the Dark Web.
These "assets" are heavily concentrated in the hands of players either squatting in Shanghai (Babylon) with the CCP, or with entities who have stained their hands earning "the Mark" for "the Plan."
The problem for the CCP and Xi Jinping is that the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners looms over their head like a guillotine about to drop.
And so everything related to these digital currency things and people are things you want to practice social distancing from, wash your hands of, and inoculate yourself against by formally filing a statement of withdrawal on the Tuidang website.
Whoever doesn't have the guts, can't see it, or doesn't want to is gone with the wind.
So, here's the trade.
The Eth rally is obviously real, and it's obviously an exit pump at the same time. This means the target is painfully higher. Not to raid a monthly bar and then turn around and dump.
This means that shorts are trapped, more shorts are trapped.
A problem is that market psychology is not what you think it is. People love to buy when stuff is expensive and they love to sell when stuff is cheap. Because emotion is what drives everything, and it's why every U.S. election is lynch pinned around the words "fear" and "hate."
Price going up means a lot of big on-chain wallets get sold off at very high prices. Not only because shorts are force liquidated/force covered, but because people come piling in to buy with the number $5,000 in their eyes.
Eth monthly shows us that the dump was too deep and took too long to rally to be some sort of a prelude to a new high.
But because this rally shows no signs of retracing anywhere on futures or BTC, we can only assume that the target is the most obvious and painful target, which is the $3,600 pivot level set in 2022.
The problem for proponents of $4,000 is that despite these rallies and this supposedly bullish news about ETFs, there's no contango in futures at the moment.
And so this means that the CME Futures pattern will constrain the exchange spot prices, which we see in the charts
This means $3,600-$3,800 is the likely top.
And what's going to kill the rally?
It's really simple. A raid by the FBI/DOJ/SEC on Tether/iFinex/Bitfinex will do it and end it all forever.
What happened with online poker in the late 2000s when this happened to Full Tilt and Pokerstars?
One day everyone woke up to find their websites, where all their money was held, had been shut down with a takedown notice.
Everyone lost their money and it took many years for it to be paid back by the companies that bought FTP/Stars, the industry never recovered, and now you never even so much as hear about poker.
And that's what is going to happen to crypto. In the future, it will be gone.
And so will the 9th Communist International's CBDCs.
Gold: Shining Bright with OpportunitiesGold is once again in the spotlight, and here’s why!
Economic Cycles, PMI & Gold
The US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a leading indicator often used to identify turns in the economic cycle. A below 50 PMI print indicates contraction in the US manufacturing cycle, while a print above 50 suggests expansion. Generally speaking, expanding manufacturing cycles spell a boost for industrial materials, like copper, while contractionary periods spell downturns in the economy and a preference for 'flight to safety', boosting gold holdings. An interesting observation from the chart above is the correlation between the Gold/Copper ratio and the inverted US PMI, moving in tandem over the last decade. However, looking at the current scenario, the PMI has turned lower, yet the Gold/Copper ratio has remained relatively muted, suggesting that gold may currently be underpriced. Similarly, the Gold/Silver ratio shows a less pronounced but similar effect.
Significant drops in the PMI below the 50 level have historically triggered notable increases in the Gold/Copper ratio. With the PMI currently below 50 for a sustained period, this might be priming the ratio for a potential upward surge.
Yields, Fed Expectation & Gold
As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold loses its appeal when interest rates rise, leading investors to prefer interest-yielding products. We covered the effect of a Fed rate cut on gold in a previous article here . While the Fed remains steadfast in holding rates, even the act of pausing rate hikes positively impacts gold. This effect is observed via the Gold/US10Y Yields ratio. The previous pause in rate hikes preceded a significant run-up in this ratio. Additionally, this ratio is currently near its resistance level, which it has respected multiple times over the last decade.
With the Fed expected to continue holding rates, now could be an opportune time to consider adding gold to your portfolio.
Gold Price Action
Gold’s current price action also shows a completed cup-and-handle pattern. With an initial attempt to break higher halted, it now trades right above the handle.
Additionally, gold could arguably be trading in an ascending triangle pattern, as noted by its price action as well as generally declining volume, potentially signaling a bullish continuation pattern.
In summary, given the Fed's stance on holding rates, the correlation between PMI and the Gold/Copper ratio, and the bullish technical indicators in gold's price action, a positive outlook on gold seems reasonable. To express our view, we can buy the CME Gold Futures at the current level of 1962. Using the cup and handle pattern to guide the take profit level, at 2400 and stop at 1890. Each 0.10 point move in gold futures is for 10 USD. The same view can also be expressed with greater precision using the CME Micro Gold contract where the notional is one-tenth of the regular size gold contract. Here, each 0.10 point move is for 1 USD.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
www.cmegroup.com
www.cmegroup.com
www.cmegroup.com
Oil, where are you headed?
This week our eyes fall on the crude oil market. From our previous article, Cracking the Crack Spread , we know that crude oil and gasoline hold a special relationship. Since gasoline is extracted from crude oil, the spread between the two futures should not diverge too much. Yet, in the past few weeks, we have observed a deviation in their prices with the Crude Oil/Gasoline ratio peaking.
Futures Fundamentals
Open interest refers to the number of open contracts in the market. It serves as a measure of liquidity, activity and more importantly, interest in the security. While trading volume refers to the number of contracts traded each day.
The decline in both prices and open interests indicates the liquidation of long positions. Together with a low trading volume, this can indicate a bear market.
Economic Outlook
Although the federal reserve (Fed) is likely done with its hikes in this hiking cycle, it intends to keep interest rates higher for longer. Coupled with continued tightness in the labor market, sticky inflation and inflating cost of debt, growth would be dampened.
One way to back up this view is to look at the US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). The PMI is widely used as a leading indicator to anticipate changing economic trends. Furthermore, there tends to be a positive association with PMI and commodities year-on-year change. Given the latest PMI value, it points to a negative economic outlook, with year-on-year crude oil prices playing catch up.
It is good to be mindful that if the Fed has indeed concluded its hiking cycle, there is a greater likelihood for the dollar to weaken rather than strengthen. As crude oil is quoted in USD, a weaker dollar would lead to a more expensive contract. Therefore, there are upside risks to crude oil prices.
Supply Factors
US crude oil production reaches record high levels. In conjunction with other non-OPEC countries’ record production, they have been upholding the supply despite facing cuts from OPEC. This could possibly explain why oil prices fell on Oct 4th when OPEC confirmed its cuts until the end of the year.
However, we also see the number of oil rigs in the US on a decline, which may hinder any higher levels of production. Also, there is the debate whether production from non-OPEC countries will be outpaced by OPEC’s cut, leading to the materialization of a supply deficit.
Volatility
Historically, the energy sector is known for its volatility. In comparison to the S&P 500, crude oil appears to be more volatile. In the chart above we look at the maximum year-on-year change in the S&P500 and marked that range on the year-on-year crude oil prices. Here, the wider range that crude oil trades becomes much more obvious compared to the S&P 500. This effect could likely stem from the fact that oil, unlike equities, is affected by a myriad of complex factors at any given time, from supply/demand to geopolitical, environmental and many more.
Gold and crude oil tend to be positively associated. Rising oil prices place upward pressure on inflation leading to precious metals to appreciate as investors flock to “store of value” assets. Other than store of value, gold also acts as a form of safe haven asset, where investors take shelter in gold against uncertainty. With gold now trading significantly higher than oil, it appears that markets are expecting higher levels of fear and uncertainty, which could translate to higher volatility in oil.
So where is oil heading?
Here we find ourselves in a limbo, considering potential breakout risk from geopolitical tensions the downside risk from the likely turnover of the economy, a fading PMI pointing to oil weakness, and overextended oil prices when looking at the spread complex with gasoline. In times like this, when risk could extend on either side, a long straddle options position could allow us to harness profits in the event of a volatile move, in either direction.
To express our view, we can set up long straddle position by buying one at-the-money call and put option that expire in Feb 2024. Given the last price of CLZ3 is 82, we will purchase the two options at the strike price of 81.50. The premiums for the call and put options are 5.39 and 4.89 points respectively. In total, our premium would be 10.28 points.
As a rough gauge of the potential for profitability, it might help to look at the volatility in oil prices. For the selected strike, ignoring the effects of options Greeks, the price on expiration would have to move roughly 12.7% in either direction. In the chart above, the bottom figure shows the rolling 3-month change in oil prices, with the red band marking the 12.7% higher & lower range. Here we see oil continually swinging past this level, highlighting the potential for this strategy to play out.
In this setup, it should also be noted that the maximum loss on the position is the premium paid on the initial setup, which is 10.43 points. The breakeven levels are above 92 or below 71 on option expiration day, as seen in the chart above. Each 0.01 point move in crude oil options is for 10 USD.
CME also has a handy strategy simulator allowing you to construct the option strategy and simulate future prices on your position's P&L. Above are two potential scenarios if the price of crude oil remains close to flat on expiration day, or if it trades lower on expiration day, alongside a diagram showing the effect on the option position's P&L.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
www.cmegroup.com
www.cmegroup.com
www.cmegroup.com
🅱️ BTC CME Futures GAPs Points To $35K, Who's Selling? | Go UP!Looking at the Bitcoin CME Futures contracts we have to major gaps on the way down that are yet be filled.
These gaps can be found in the following ranges:
1) $34,445 - $35,775
2) $27,365 - $28,860
Now, let me ask you one question...
Who's selling?
Who is going to sell?
Who is selling now?
I ask this question because there is people around waiting for a "new low", "another leg down"... But who is going to sell?
Who will part with their bitcoins after Bitcoin hit a low back in June 2022?
The capitulation phase is where the masses sell.
The "sucker rally" is not.
The sucker rally, terrible name, happened in July/August 2022, then again months of red.
If you count from June '22 until January '23 you have more than six months.
That's the bottom pricing... The sellers had their time to sell from November 2021 until early this month...
New money is coming in not to sell but to hold long-term and profit as bitcoins price appreciates over the years.
Our billionaire friends gave the Go. ✔
The charts gave us the Go. ✔
Our third eye/intuition gave us the Go. ✔
Conventional markets gave us the Go. ✔
The FED gave us the Go. ✔
Even China, opening its country, gave us the Go. ✔
Astrology gave us the Go. ✔
Nothing is saying down now...
Everything is saying Go... UP!
Namaste.
Inflation not down under!Australia's CPI data, released yesterday, showcased figures hotter than anticipated. While this may not be 'reaction-worthy' news on its own, the scenario in Australia is worth delving into for several reasons.
Inflation Trends
Initially, let's consider inflation trends. In most western economies, although inflation remains above central bank targets, the trends are on a downward trajectory. However, when juxtaposed against those for the European Union (EU) and the United States (US), Australia's (AU) inflation rates on a month-over-month (MOM) and year-over-year (YOY) basis still stick out from the norm.
Moreover, yesterday’s CPI prints surpassed consensus on both the YOY & MOM basis, indicating a notable deviation from expectations.
In fact, Australia's YOY CPI is now on its longest streak above inflation expectations, and crucially, inflation expectations have ceased revising downwards.
Given the higher inflation levels compared to its peers, consensus estimates, and expectations, inflation remains a significant concern for Australia.
Interest Rates
In the realm of interest rates, Australia has been a long-standing “pauser,” having maintained its policy rate unchanged since its June meeting. This prolonged pause now further opens the leeway to raise rates, especially given the “watch and see” approach adopted towards burgeoning inflation. Additionally, its interest rates remain low compared to the US, EU, Canada, and even New Zealand.
As a result, on the real rates basis, Australia trails far behind, with its policy rate still 1.3% behind its inflation rate, significantly less restrictive compared to other economies that have already moved into positive real rates territory.
We posit that the RBA is behind the curve and has room to react, given the considerably long period of pause and still negative real rates.
The market seems to echo this sentiment too, as the odds for a hike in the next meeting surged post the CPI news, moving from 21% to 55%!
Against multiple currencies, the AUD appears to be threading above the long-term support level, a threshold that has essentially defined AUD low. This strong support is expected to hold, given its tested and respected level across multiple currency crosses since 2020.
Policy turning points between the two currencies, as indicated by the turn in the interest rate differential, have generally marked the trend change for the currency, notably for the AUDEUR pair.
Given the persisting high inflation in Australia compared to various economies and metrics, should market expectations trend in the right direction, it's plausible the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may react with a rate hike. This action could tilt the rate differential and interest for the AUD, bolstering the currency.
To capitalize on this bullish view on the AUD, we can consider a long position on the AUDEUR. We can set up this trade via a long position on the CME Australian Dollar Futures and a short position on the CME Euro FX futures to create a synthetic long AUD/EUR position at the current price level of 0.5951, stop at 0.5865 and take profit at 0.615.
Given that one CME Euro FX futures is for 125,000 Euros and one CME Australian Dollar Futures is for 100,000 Australian Dollars, this suggest that we should use two Australian Dollar Futures to one Euro FX Futures to match the contract size, given that 125,000 Euros is roughly equivalent to 210,000 Australian Dollars at the prevailing exchange rate. Each 0.00005 increment in the Australian Dollar Futures is equal to 5 USD and each 0.00005 increment in the Euro FX Futures is equal to 6.25 USD.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
www.cmegroup.com
www.cmegroup.com
melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au
www.rba.gov.au
www.asx.com.au
www.cmegroup.com