BTC is not gonna make it this time!BTC is currently pathetically trying to take a new Higher-high but it won't make it due to the lack of buying power, pressure from CME and CBOE.
The former one (buying power) is obvious. Take a look at MACD, RSI Stoch and you will clearly see an immense divergence. Concerning the Bitfinex Long/Short indicator we can see how longs are being closed during this market rally. Curretly almost 11,500 contracts have been closed. Moreover, Shorts are rising on a market rally. Indeed, that is not typical for a crowd. We can rarely see how longs are being closed while the market is showing some hope. I spotted such cases several times:
Concerning the situation around BTC futures market:
1) Spreading at CME is high (known as hedging) = 295 contracts
2) SHORT commercial (he never made a mistake since June 2018) is still holding his hedge position. Once he closes at least
40% we can talk about surge to 5k. I bet this happens once we break 4300$ level and consolidate.
3) Leveraged funds are BIG short
4) Asset Managers are also short, but last week we saw + Longs. Though, Shorts overweight Longs a lot!
To conclude. I really think that we are about to fall back to 3600$. Probably even breaking the line further way down. We well act accordingly. At the moment now purchasing power is extremely weak.
Cme!
Short CME to 160Fully formed head and shoulders patterns on the daily chart. The neckline was just recently broken as the 50 MA dropped below the 100 MA and is headed towards the 200 right now. We can also see bearish divergence forming on a downwards MACD cross. Stochastic RSI cross downwards as well. The price itself breached the 200 MA level of $175 as well. Looking super bearish here, and this is a stock that is less likely to be impacted by a "lavish" trade deal.
GOLD: Week10 update2Hi Guys,
if you drag backwards the above chart you will find LS in week4.
LS (left shoulder) week4
H (head) week7
RS (right shoulder) week10
IMPORTANT: RS was the idea, opportunities were along the way. At 1310 Gold will start facing resistance. Be carefull.
For a complete picture please refer to my post dated March 10 in the related ideas linked below (GOLD: week10 H4)
Next step: wait and see if the H&S will complete and how.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
GOLD: week10 update1Hi Guys,
on Monday morning Gold retrieved from Friday's hights along with sentiment as shown in RSI to find support on the 100SMA at approx 1290 in the afternoon.
Retail Sales were up today but faild to uplift DXY above 97.40 turning short term sentiment for US dollar into bearish (positive for Gold).
AToW Gold is still supported by the 100SMA even if sentiment is below 50RSI. Today's move retraced approx 0.618 of last Friday's move (A to B). The bounce on the 100SMA may be the start of the 3rd wave going into forming the second shoulder of the potential H&S into or just above the 250SMA coming down. (For the potential H&S pattern please refer to my posts in the related ideas linked below). However, if 100SMA is breached next step would be 1285 and H&S just a mirage. Be carefull. At midnight Fed Chair Powell speaks. Tomorrow CPI datas but mainly UK Parliament vote on Brexit deal.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
EUR/CHF: overview (week9 H4)Hi Guys,
on Feb 11, 2019 I posted some thoughts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF in relation to their PEG (please refer to the Related Ideas linked below).
EUR/CHF at 1.20 (A)
USD/CHF at 1.02 (A)
Both are travelling below their PEGs.
With reference to the 4H Chart posted above, please note it is just a structure and do not provide any trading opportunity for the time being in accordance with my trading "style".
In relation to their PEG, EUR/CHF is lagging compared to USD/CHF but I don't think I can be sure that EUR/CHF will catch up. Yet.
EUR/CHF on the weekly chart may want to touch the 225SMA again before running up towards its PEG if USD/CHF crosses and run above its PEG.
But the fact that USD/CHF hit its PEG does not mean that EUR/CHF will hit its PEG too. In the past USD/CHF hit its PEG several times whilst EUR/CHF only once back in April 2018.
Strategy: Wait & See
Watch out for news & datas that may help to indentify moments of strenght or weakness of the Swiss Franc.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Don't forget to like if you like the post and to follow if you want to receive notifications on new or updated ideas.
Respect, Be Carefull and Enjoy:)
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
BTC continues to show weakness!
BTC has moved higher recently after breaking through support
This region has now become resistance and this can be shown so far by the rejection of price on that last push
We haven't really seen bulls come in with volume to defend these prices and with the gap still open below, the odds are high on a fill soon
We would need to regain this supply zone for longs to look appealing again but until then, the trade is still to short rallies
The unfilled gap remains near $3,150 and with month end tomorrow, we could see some volatility
Bulls would need to step in with force on that gap fill or else we could see massive stop runs below the lows and the 2k handle will be a reality
Shorting either the initial test of supply or the block EQ would be ideal spots for a move back down to fill the gap
BTC quickly closes weekend gap!
BTC has a rather larger than normal move over the weekend
We saw price take another leg lower hitting the $3,400 region
That did cause a gap down on futures BUT it was short lived as we popped right back into the void and have now filled it
We continue to remain below both EMAs and below both monthly opens at the moment and until we can regain either/or both, bulls need to proceed with caution here
This strong move up this morning is good to see but the next few hours and even daily close will give us a good idea of what the possible next move to come is
Something to keep in mind are the remaining gaps left to fill at $4,300 and $3,200
Bakkt ETF decision is approaching as well so we could see a pump into the news and very likely see a "sell the news" event afterward
Thanks guys!
CME Bitcoin Futures Effect On Bitcoin PriceEvery time the CME BItcoin Futures expiry date is preceded by a bounce, the price drops all the way back down to the start of that bounce.
The orange vertical lines, show that this happens every time.
The dotted blue vertical lines, are CME dates when there was no preceding bounce.
All vertical lines are the CME Bitcoin Futures expiry dates.
BTC FILLS FIRST GAP!
BTC has finally come down and closed its first unfilled gap, which was previously mentioned in our charts
We are very near to closing another one right below, which at this point seems very likely to be the next one filled
A close below the SFP around $3500 would most likely result in a retest of lows so that is something to consider to bulls
We have found support at the monthly open so far and staying above here is key for bulls
Keeping an eye on the gap right below near $3500 as an area of interest
Thanks guys!
CME Bitcoin Futures downswing Fibonacci retraceContinuing from my previous chart. Fibonacci downswing retrace is always 61.8%
All vertical lines are the CME Bitcoin Futures expiry dates
Each orange vertical line, shows a CME date that was preceded by a bounce
Following those dates (orange), there is a short retest of the recent high
The price then drops all the way back down to test the start of that bounce
After testing the lower trendline, the downswing Fibonacci retrace is always 61.8% (to meet the upper trendline)
This cycle repeats until the price breaks down to a lower plateau trendline
BTC unfilled CME gaps!
BTC has continued its uptrend over the past few weeks but has been leaving a trail of gaps behind it
The most recent one being from 3990~3875
We also have 2 others below 3685-3650 & 3165-3150 and another one higher above 4410-4375 , which coincides perfectly with the 48EMA
Whether we clear the higher one first before trending lower or return below to pick up the crumbs before breaking out higher waits to be seen
We have had some accumulation over the past few weeks as we can see from the 'ultimate volume' indicator but nothing to brag about
The CMVP seems to have topped out so a pullback could be expected as we look at this bearish Daily candle forming (still very early)
Thanks guys