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BTC futures start and end dates: Manipulation?I have set the length of each rectangle to coincide with the length of each CME Bitcoin futures date. The height of the other rectangles is irrelevant as we don't have end date prices for those futures contracts. The blue rectangle is the only one where we have both open and close information. It seems to me that manipulation is obvious but I can't say that for sure. The open date for the first contract (starts December '17 ends June '18) opens one day before the all time high . The close date for the contract is one day after the local low , the lowest low Bitcoin has seen since $20K. Was this timed perfectly? Looks like it to me. Assuming this is right and the market is being manipulated, we could be seeing a real uptrend in the coming months that would match the start dates for the other future contracts. I wouldn't trade on this information, I'm still holding my coins as I'm holding medium-long term bullish. Open interest in CME futures is rising and price is rising which suggests a bullish move. Needs more volume to confirm the bullish sentiment though. Source: www.cmegroup.com
BLong
by reycripto
1
CME & Also CBOE Future Expiry dates are impacting the btc pricesAs we see on the expiry dates of both CME and CBOE futures, Bitcoin price generally drops heavily. This trend has to end at some point and always comes back from the dip level (6K-7K) that is defined when those companies announced they will launch those futures. This is the time the financial wolves joined the game and became market makers. This dip is the exact bitcoin price when it was announced. So I'm pretty sure we will not go below. I don't know how many cycles it will take to boost and market makers play the bull, we will see but at some point this will happen. Also the cycles of shorts is telling us that not so long. Every time they decrease, the highest level of shorts reach is getting lower. So this paradox should end a new cycle should start in upcoming months. I'm long in bitcoin... We will see a bullish market in august and september...
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by turananil
The CBOE/CME Settlement cycle really dump & pump BTC price!You can check my previous analysis about his hellish CBOE/CME cycle that suppress/pump BTC price ( and the whole crypto market ) into dump & pump cycle. If my guess is correct, this dump will stop around 6-7 June 2018 at around 7000-7200 price. and it will continue to pump again. But since the price will stuck at trend line ... so the highest price for next BTC pump cycle will be around 8500 or 8200. But I think 9000 is the possible price target for next pump.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Real_inwCoin
Just an update for CBOE-BTC up and down cycle, so it's began.Since BTC test 10k and couldn't pass, the price start to crumble. Now it form very big Head & Shoulders pattern in 4H Timeframe, the neckline is around 9050 and I think it won't hold. Expect slow price drop to 8800 then struggling to go up to 9000. Then drop to 8500 and up to 8700.. Then 8000-8500. From my idea, the price will continue to drop to the bottom ( 7000 or 8000 ) around first week of June 2018. And start to rally up again.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Real_inwCoin
3
Bitcoin Quarterly Analysis 2013 - 2018In Q3 of 2013, BTC/USD printed a low of $1.00. 5 years later, the low for Q3 2017, was $1826.10. It is now 2018 and the LOWEST Bitcoin has printed is $6k. Even after this -49.68% loss, the $6k all time low for 2018 is +715.99% change from the 2017 year low. Over the 22 Quarters between 2013 Q1 and today (2018 Q2): Bitcoin has performed a. 12 of the 22 with an average positive change of +102.62% b. 10 of 22 with an average negative change of -19.62% Total average change for Bitcoin/USD in this period is A POSITIVE GAIN of 47.10% PER QUARTER. Despite material fact of BTC/U performance and trend over the past years, the effort to project a BTC/U Bear Market narrative shamelessly continues, claiming $4k as the true near term support. The reality is, $4k is a price level that BTC/U has not seen since, Q3 of 2017. Yes, it’s possible to see that price again but positing 4k as a bear market price is nothing short of embarrassing, considering this 2017 level of "support" represents a positive change of 444% from Q1, 273.83% from Q2, and 119.03% from Q3, all within the same fiscal year. With the historical data referenced above and readily known by anyone in the market prior to Q4 2017, the "4k Bear Market" narrative echoes nothing more than the bitter sentiment of a latecomer. Even the CME's, BRR and BRTI, can track an overall change of greater than a +1000% in BTC/U from it's official launch in Q3 2016 to the current day price. Since the first listing of BTC/U on an exchange priced at $0.003 on March 10 2010, to the current price at $8516.80, BTC/U has seen a 283,893,233.33% gain. Since it priced at $1.00 as the low for Q3 of 2013, to today, BTC/U has seen a 851,580% gain. Those that continue to insist that BTC/U is in a bear market, will have better luck finding losses in their credibility. Credit Suisse reported 1.1 Million new millionaires were created in the U.S. in 2017, for a total of 15,356,000 millionaires in the U.S. alone. Total current supply of Bitcoin is 17,044,825 with a max cap of 21,000,000. So to those intent on driving down prices; tread lightly, there are masses ready and waiting to take your seat at this table. “…the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.” Appreciate the risk.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by iSovereign
6
E-Mini S&P500 Future JUN18 (CME)Trading Signal Short Position (EP) : 2635.25 Stop Loss (SL) : 2643.5 Take Profit (TP) : 2604.25 Description ES1! formed Double Repo Sell at 30m time frame. Trade setup with sell limit at 0.382 level of FR (2635.25) and place stop loss at 0.618 level of FR (2643.5). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement zone (2604.25) Money Management Money in portfolio : $73,000 Risk Management (0.5%) : $365 Position Sizing $0.25 = +-$12.50 (Mini) Commission fee = -$2.05/contract (Mini) EP to SL = $8.25 = -$412.50/contract (Mini) Contract size to open = 1 mini contract EP to TP = $31.00 = +$1,550 (Mini) Expected Result Commission Fee = -$4.1 Loss = -$412.50 Gain = +$1,550 Risk/Reward Ratio = 3.72
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SuppasitWechprasit
Bitcoin needs to complete this last wave down to find bottom!!!BTCUSD is having a time right now, but I've been calling for a bottom sub $6k end of April / early May for months. I've been counting these waves down, and if this last 5 work out as planned that bottom should come in right on time. Also, LOOK OUT FOR APRIL DATES: - US TAX DAY ( APRIL 17th this year ) - BTC CME FUTURES EXPIRATION MARCH 29TH - March 29th expiration had a dip starting on the 25th with a massive push down on the 29th. I would not be surprised if we end in a truncation or a long flat or both. This is me trying to plot out what I'm seeing. Let me know what you think!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by foulmouthmuggle
Bitcoin - Analysed From Future's Traders ViewIn the above graph, Green Channels show large volume for CME future contracts where Red Channels indicate small volume, the darker the colour, the more intense the volume. As you can see, the early Green Channels signal large volatility hence large price rises where low volume future contracts resulted in significant drops, now later along in March, Contract volumes steadily rose, in which its seems this increase in Fututes volume has taken the volatility out of the market. MACD appears to be tightly entangled within the closing wedge, either this will limit future corrections or force an breakout with the amplitude of the wedge ranges from $6000 - $9000, Latest futures trading data shows net-long traders are converting to shorts although currently longs have just over 2-1 lead, there is rumors longs are coming back into favor yet the trends show differently, as two-three weeks of reversal hint at perpetual shorts. Taking a view of traders and their attitudes, seems to exhibit pressure to force BTC prices low although changes in sentiment suggest a reversal of the BTC downtrend despite the fact traders remain net-long, this could change with current price action as low BTC price mean net-longs are lucrative. We have declining open interest indicating the market is liquidating and could lead to current downward trend coming to an end. This is a contradiction as the overall Futures volume shows we can expect the existing trend to continue rather than reverse. Here is CBOE views on it: “The daily volume has mostly been concentrated in the near-month future and the open interest doesn’t change much from day to day,” said Gary Compton, a spokesperson for the CBOE, to Modern Consensus. “This could indicate that short term or day traders are concentrating on this contract. The farthest-dated contracts haven’t been trading too much" "This shows that asset managers and institutional investors—pension funds, insurance companies, and the like—have switched from being completely short bitcoin to long the Cryptocurrency, at least when ti comes to the futures contract on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)" According to the COT report, “Asset manager/institutional” traders required to report to the regulator are now long a total of 220 contracts, worth a little above $1.7 million as of Monday. There are no new short contracts. Just two weeks before, they were short 110 contracts but long no contracts. They are currently long 2,323 BTC contracts and short 953 contracts (for a net of 1,370 contracts). Two weeks ago, they were 2,531 contracts while short 815 (for a net of 1,716). Using commodities index as a base for open interest volume, states Falling Price + Falling Contract Volume + Falling Open Interest represents a market that is Strengthening for an uptrend where the price decline is likely being caused by disgruntled net-long traders liquidating their positions on current price action. The market in this scenario is viewed as in an strong position because the downtrend will end once all the sellers have sold their positions. Another option is Falling Price + Rising Open Interest + Falling Contract Volume is indicative of a weak market downtrend. During the course of the current trend, high and rising volume in Jan, Feb suggests trading activity supported the downward trend and that the trend continuation happened due to increased investors supporting overall downward price movement.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by CerealTrader
Bitcoin Future's Future (CME Cboe) Futures have had a wide ranging effect on BTC, from the rumor rise in June that CME will release at years end, to the parabolic rise before possible shorting to double dip profit taking, now an overall reduction in volatility similar to that of the commodities futures of Gold, Silver when first introduced way back when. Future's previous effect on the Bitcoin price listed along with future prediction if the same trend was to continue. I could add other indicators to confirm the trend possibility but if this is what future hedges funds do, then this is what they do. By no way comfirmed but interesting nevertheless.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by CerealTrader
Bitcoin - The YUGE bubble Some people believe that BTC is overvalued and some believe it's undervalued. The one who considers Bitcoin is overvalued is referring Bitcoin as a bubble but still want to buy it, whereas the one who considers Bitcoin is undervalued because it still has not reached the point of global adoption are the one who speculates the market. Whereas BTC chart is no different than others and every chart is different on each exchange. Honestly, only a strong person with patience can gain "Yuge" profit in the market basically from rumors and news. Obviously, it's all speculation before the market adoption. For cryptocurrency, Twitter is working as the primary source of information while 90% investor really doesn't understand blockchain and probably 30%-50% more or less never invested in stock market. Hopeless romantic : Myth: Macafee will make you rich or otherwise he will cut his crap? Really? Fact: There's no source of legit information, one Tweet from Macafee wouldn't make you rich. Technologically novice : Myth: Ethereum is better than Bitcoin? Fact: UTXO are the currency while Ethereum is a smart contract, both have a different purpose. Blame game : Myth: Futures are manipulating the market. Fact: They are hedging but still BTC contracts not worth more than just the Oil contracts. "That's how the market works" Accept it. The bubble is everywhere, we can't say BTC is in the bubble or cryptocurrency is the bubble. The Blockchain is promising technology but still need to prove itself. For now, let's play the " YUGE" speculation before we get the final product for the generation "Z". J. Christopher Giancarlo, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) remarked, “It strikes me that we owe it to this generation to respect their enthusiasm about virtual currencies with a thoughtful and balanced response, not a dismissive one.” He did urge, however, that regulators “must crack down hard on those who try to abuse enthusiasm with fraud and manipulation.”
by fk91
CME futures tradings dates on chart.CME future trading launched 15. December 2017. BTC - February 2018 Bitcoin Futures - First Trade Date BTC - March 2018 Bitcoin Futures - First Trade Date BTC - June 2018 Bitcoin Futures - First Trade Date Just to see if CME futures tradings may have some impact on bitcoin price movements. For spectating purpose only! masterthecrypto.com Just a good read on the topic. How to read this chart: 1. Light blue lines are dates where trading positions are opened. ( don't know if they go long or short) 2. Purple lines are where the trading positions end. Example : BTC - May 2018 Bitcoin futures first trade date (26.Feb) = (meaning) Position is opened 26. Feb until May. Correct me if I am wrong and let me know what u think on the topic.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Bitpillow
Bitcoin Futures - Volume Analysis Prediction 2/16/2018Hi, friend. This is Bitcoin Futures (CME contract) analysis. I think we must to analyze it, because this instrument plays an important role of bitcoin priceformation on other exchanges. Also, the volumes on the Bitcoin Future is constantly growing and more institutional investors are entering the market. What we see now on BTC Futures? The price has reached important resistance levels - P O C of January contract and the lower level of previous balance (consolidation). If the price breaks out level 10250 and holds above next target will be 11150. On cryptoexchanges it would 11200. But I would rather wait for a rollback to the upper balance level 9100 or support zone (8700-9100). These levels are much better for opening buy positions. Trade recommendation (appropriate for cryptoexhanges): Entry point: 8700-9100 Stop: 8200 Target: 11150 Glossary of terms Point of Control (P O C) – The price level for the time period with the highest traded volume . Value Area (V A) – The range of price levels in which a specified percentage of all volume was traded during the time period. Typically, this percentage is set to 70% however it is up to the trader’s discretion. Balance - Accumulation Area. F L - flat level. T L - trend level. Fixing (fix, culmination) - reverse price reaction then the markets stops i'ts movement for a short time. The trend stops when it passes through 2-3 fixing movement.
CME:BTCG2018Long
by mooncatcherpro