Cme!
Spike In $BTC June Futures VolumeThis spike in CME June BTC futures seems consistent with the previous idea that these are ideal accumulation levels.
Gold Future (CME)Double Re-penetration Pattern. Trade setup with Buy Stop position (EP) at 1337.5, Stop Loss (SL) at 1333 and Take Profit (TP) at 1342.
Money Management
I have 22,800 USD in my portfolio. I can lose 5% of the port which is 1,140 USD.
Position Sizing
1 Tick = $100
1 Contract size need IM = $3,850 (I can open not more than $22,800 / $3,850 = 5.92 Cons)
It is 4.5 Tick from EP to SL, with 1 Con, I will lose 4.5 * $100 = $450
To lose 1,140 USD I need to open 1,140 / 450 = 2.53 Con
Then I will put 2 Contract
If I win, I will gain (1342 - 1337.5) * $100 * 2 Con = $900
Gold Future (CME)Turtle Soup. Trade setup with Buy Stop position (EP) at 1336, Stop Loss (SL) at 1329 and Take Profit (TP) at 1350.
Money Management
I have 22,800 USD in my portfolio. I can lose 5% of the port which is 1,140 USD.
Position Sizing
1 Tick = $100
1 Contract size need IM = $3,850 (I can open not more than $22,800 / $3,850 = 5.92 Cons)
It is 7 Tick from EP to SL, with 1 Con, I will lose 7 * $100 = $700
To lose 1,140 USD I need to open 1,140 / 700 = 1.62 Con
Then I will put 1 Contract
If I win, I will gain (1350 - 1336) * $100 * 1 Con = $1,400
CME will accumulate new short positions soonMain trend on BTC Futures is down.
Expecting short term pullback to downtrend resistance line and than they will short us again... And they will try to short it on each resistance.
RSI bottomed to get another bearish momentum
MACD bearish
GOLD FutureGold minor correction for uptrend. Trade setup with Buy Stop position (EP) at 1344, Stop Loss (SL) at 1329 and Take Profit (TP) at 1354.
Money Management
I have 20,800 USD in my portfolio. I can lose 10% of the port which is 2,080 USD.
Position Sizing
1 Tick = $100
1 Contract size need IM = $3,850 (I can open not more than $20,800 / $3,850 = 5.40 Cons)
It is 15 Tick from EP to SL, with 1 Con, I will lose 15 * $100 = $1,500
To lose 2,080 USD I need to open 2,080 / 1,500 = 1.38 Con
Then I will put 1 Contract
If I win, I will gain (1354 - 1344) * $100 * 1 Con = $1,000
GCJ2018Absorb Bear trend for Mega Bull trend. Minor correction. Trade setup with Buy Stop position (EP) at 1335, Stop Loss (SL) at 1320 and Take Profit (TP) at 1357.
Money Management
I have 20,800 USD in my portfolio. I can lose 10% of the port which is 2,080 USD.
Position Sizing
1 Tick = $100
1 Contract size need IM = $3,850 (I can open not more than $20,800 / $3,850 = 5.40 Cons)
It is 15 Tick from EP to SL, with 1 Con, I will lose 15 * $100 = $1,500
To lose 2,080 USD I need to open 2,080 / 1,500 = 1.38 Con
Then I will put 1 Contract
If I win, I will gain (1357 - 1335) * $100 * 1 Con = $2,200
ABCD Correction: CME Over-Exuberance & Fear of the UnknownDisclaimer: This is an opinion based on experience and analysis, meant only to add to your own formulated opinions, not give you a trade to take.
There's been an incredible amount of fear surrounding the CBOE and CME futures contract, mostly because people don't really understand them. The first ride on the futures merry-go-round brought the price down instantly. So, the automatic knee-jerk reaction is that every contract will bring it down. Yet, it should be noted that their announcement brought the price up wildly. There has been gain and loss, so far. As expected.
Swings seem to have caused the price action of Bitcoin to go so high that it forgot to retrace its previous price rise from around $8350. There have been other views which claim every bull run has retraced to close a price gap, (reference forthcoming). The only price gap I see still open is the aforementioned one at $8350. Using trend analysis, you can draw pretty clear lines leading to around $7550 as a compensation for the over-exuberance of the bull market due to the introduction of futures contracts. The first correction after the CME announcement was around 29-11-2017 and was declared 'over' at somewhere near 9135, however, it appears now that closing that gap from 8350 to 9135 is, in fact, 'in the cards', based on a trend analysis of the current downward movement. Savvy investors have pointed to an 8K prediction since that time, and it looks by all sings like we're getting it.
And, on that note, let's be honest. Futures is just betting. There's no ownership of the asset, and the bets are private - meaning we (the retail consumers of Bitcoin) gain absolutely nothing from their existence, other than the opportunity to sell the news, and the abject terror when the market moves as a result of it (so far).
Anyway, I assume the bounce from 7550 levels will be aggressively bought into.
There is the (3xBearish) scenario that $7550 will be ignored and the price will drop further. Personally, if that DOES happen, I'm going to make the assumption that most of the Bitcoin in existence is in the hands of institutional traders, whether they be old whales or new. From there, I'd expect the price to be driven to $2999 and repurchased for another round of ponzi scheme trading in a few years. That would make Bitcoin worthless, for my needs.
However, I DON'T think that is the case and will work off the assumption that $7550 will be the the absolute floor which is only touched once, as an unconscious psychological punishment for over-reaching $8350 after CME, CBOE & The Moon.
From where it is today, at the bottom of the minor ascending support line (marked in red), could hold if enough volume comes in to push it above the resistance of the ABCD correction, though I personally doubt it.
Overall, though, I think the future of Bitcoin will be bright. Whales aren't just idiots who bought bitcoin early. They're early adopters because they recognized value. That value still exists as long as you can transfer value outside of the banking system. Let's not forget how badly every bank has extorted the poor and needy, and how much distaste there actually is for them. They'll be on best behavior for as long as they can resist the temptation to nickel and dime us, but once it happens and the face of institutional extortion shows itself again, Bitcoin will go up.
Thank you for reading. This has been my first published idea on Tradingview.
BTC possible big dip to 7000$ - 9000$ levelIf you watch the 1D chart for BTCUSD it looks like a big Pump & Dump (P&D) which lasted several months. It looks like most of the big dump already finished half it's way and there is a possibility it will dip between the 7000-9000 levels. Let's say 8000$ as average, but keep in mind a lot of fear will reveal it self when 9000 trend line is broken. Therefor support at 8000$ is crucial!
Lastly not to forget is in 5 hours the Future market contracts will end. A big chance for a LONG run coming month. A small chance still exists Futures will go SHORT. In that case "So Help us God" ;)
Bitcoin : Futures - are they affecting the spot market?Hi,
I am not normally into conspiracy theories, but I am interested in any impact (if any) on the spot market from the CBOE and CME futures markets.
I have marked the start and end of the 2 futures markets. There was a clear downtrend for the first CBOE duration and a clear up tick after if ended. Let's see what happens when the CME futures expire.
Perhaps the futures market (being currently so small) doesn't have a direct effect but the impact may be set more in the minds and expectations of the market as a whole. Either way, the effect may be the same.
Let's see.
The tail is not wagging the dogPpl say that futures traders now dictate the price of BTC. Doesn't look that way to me.
I put a H&S in your H&S... CME contract end 26th, dip to 8k-ish?Observing how BTC loves H&S formations you can never put too many of them in the chart. :) I'd like to hope that the dip is over and we can go on with our lives, but many TA I've seen and articles I've read mention that 8k target. Could still be valid and considering CME contract end on 26th this could be a plausible move. Happy surfing!
The tail is not wagging the dogPpl are saying that the bitcoin price is now dictated by futures traders. The data disagrees.
Jamie Dimon 2.0 - BitcoinSept 13th - Jamie Dimon makes a public statement that Bitcoin is a fraud.
Price immediately plummeted 30% into the low $3000 range.
Oct. 31st - CME Futures Annoucement
Price rocketed ~220%; sending us to our current all time high just shy of $20k
Nov. 17th - CME Futures Launch
Immediate collapse of ~43% at the time this article is being written.
This was all predicted in my CME Conspiracy Theory here:
youtu.be
Now the question is, where is support?
Is $13,000 the new bottom?
or are we heading to the next support at 10k?
IF the daily closes above $13,000, I would expect a decent bounce none the less.
If the $13,000 level fails, I will close all positions/orders and wait for the next support level.
Which is appearing to be 10k atm.
Additional possible support levels are also shown on the chart above
IF history repeats itself and one of these two levels are truly the bottom.
Is another 550% possible?
Time will tell will story.
Please trade carefully.
note: I lost a great deal of money in this dip. I refused to follow my own technical analysis and it has cost me dearly.
Let my lesson reflect onto you. Do not let emotions get in the way. You cannot make the market do what you want. You must be dynamic and react accordingly.
I wish you all luck!
DISCLAIMER:
Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
BTC Vs USD, CME Futures, hourly chart. BTCF2018. Current trendsBTC Vs USD, CME, hourly chart. BTCF2018. Current trends
BTCUSD:Facing CME Volume And A Bearish Formation. 20K Anyway?BTCUSD update: Minor retrace to the 18k level followed by a bullish pin bar off of a narrowing channel that points to an attempt at 20k. Now that both the CBOE and CME futures are in play, I anticipate more and more price noise in this market, and based on the current structure, a test of the psychological 20k level.
As far as levels goes, not much has changed except for the 20300 upper boundary of the reversal zone generated by the structure of the 18k retrace. This zone is narrow and is worth noting because of the psychological effect of the 20K level. Will price break it?
Based on the current bullish pin bar that is unfolding, price is likely to push through momentarily at least. Markets that intend to sell often reject major levels quickly, not form a pin bar within the lower boundary of a bullish trend line just under the resistance level.
With that being said, there is a conflicting structure than may lead to a much broader correction soon after the 20k test and that is the bearish pennant formation which is made clear by the converging trend lines. These formations have been appearing frequently in these markets only to see price go higher, but that does not mean they should be ignored when they appear.
As the trading day progresses, the CME futures volume should increase and have a stronger effect on the price action. Keep in mind futures contracts can easily be shorted which will compensate for the absence of selling that has been built into these markets thanks to regulation in the U.S. And if institutions decide to get short, they can afford to do it big, and with ease now that the CME offers a 5 coin contract compared to the one coiner over at the CBOE.
So price is at a psychological resistance, gyrating around 18974 which is a 2.618 target (written about in previous report) and in the process of building a bearish pennant formation. Even though the overall trend is still bullish, these conflicting signs say three things to me: A broader short term correction is more likely, if you are long, lock in some profit, and do not take any new long swing trades at these levels.
And as far as the alts, people keeping asking me what will happen if this market presents a more serious correction and the answer is: who knows. The relationship with the alts fluctuates wildly. One minute BTC sells while alts push dramatic new highs, and the next minute, they are all showing the similar price structures as they are at the moment. I don't rely on that relationship and instead evaluate the price action of each coin independently.
In summary, it will be interesting to see how the CME affects this market now that professionals and institutions can get into the game safely and with size. As far as my plan goes, I am patiently waiting for a reasonable retrace to a projected support which is at the 14500 area. IF price retests that support, I will then evaluate for a bullish reversal. Otherwise I have no reason to take any action at this time. If the market can't meet my criteria, then I can't take any risk because the market doesn't control me, I control myself. That is what a trading plan is all about.
Comments and questions welcome.
Quick announcement: Tomorrow I am going to appear live on NASDAQ's Twitter broadcast. They are going to interview me about the coins. I will post the link in tomorrow's report so keep an eye out for it.
BTC Impulse waves following futures -Previously on the 10th we saw immediate sell offs in fear of the C-B-O-E futures, but never retraced past wave 1. (Rule 1)
-Today on the 17th we see a similar sell offs following the C-M-E futures, but wave 4 did not break previous gains from Wave 1. (Rule 3)
-Physiological affects futures stop B-T-C gains in the short-term, but believe we could see B-T-C all time high again soon.
-Predicting 20k in the near future
IOTA/USD Longer term Possebility.IOTA is one of the altcoins I have the most trust in.
Right now lot's of people will not believe that it could go up again.
Quite normal, everybody was calling XRP a shitcoin last week untill it went up and we all were ripplelovers.
I've published another IOTA/BTC chart before.
Now I feel that there could be two possible futures for IOTA and I can't decide which one it is.
Last time I said IOTA would moon a few days after the CME listing of bitcoin.
I'm not saying this won't happen, but because of the holydays most people will be spending time with the family and buying them gifts.
Also the CME listing could have an effect that lasts multiple days on bitcoin, which results in alts not having a big chance to moon.
Iota is still unknown for the real newbie crypto traders and once people know what it does and how the tech works, I feel like they will want to buy it.
Nocoiners will be spamming bad things about BTC and a popular argument nowadays is quantumcomputing.
Iota already is quantumproof, so people will trust this coin because of its advanced tech and long/good history.
Hope you guys leave your opinion in the comments!
BTC/USD CME PUMP TO 21k If we dump before CME, the lowest we will see is 16k.
End all be all is 21k.
Any buys or longs (on low leverage), in the range between 16k and ATH, will be profitable by CME Date.
Good luck
BTC - Short of a lifetimeOk so here is a possible situation..
BTC Is being pumped (parabolicly) buy big money investors until the launch of CME futures on the 17th Dec 2017.
This is when they will open a short position on BTC and dump their holdings. FUD will start to spread and panic will set in.
People will panic sell and the price will plummet to around $10k.
*Please note*
This is only a theory and is a high risk trade. If you are a long term holder it may be better to just hodl.
Good luck!
- phazednb
