ETH has two pending CME Gaps#ETH #Analysis
Description
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+ ETH has two pending CME future gaps to filled.
+ First gap is around 2900-3400 range and second gap is around 2500-2600 range.
+ Sooner or later these CME gaps will get filled. I'm expecting Gap2 get filled in this or next month and Gap 1 in the second or third quarter.
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Enhance, Trade, Grow
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VectorAlgo
Cme!
BTC will fill CME GAP at around 77KWe're seeing some wild swings in Bitcoin's price, and I'm calling it: this isn't just the market doing its thing. I mean, where's all the BTC on exchanges? It's like there's none left, and the prices are shooting up to levels that Wall Street boys would think twice about jumping into.
This smells like big-time manipulation by the heavy hitters, like those hedge fund giants and the exchanges themselves. They've got the power to make the market dance, and with so little Bitcoin floating around, every move they make has an outsized impact. It's like they're playing with a loaded deck.
I'm not saying I've got the smoking gun, but the signs are there. When you see prices that don't match the supply, you gotta wonder, right? Are we just pawns in their game, or is there something else at play?
Let's keep our eyes peeled, because if this is manipulation, it's on a whole new level. What do you guys think? Am I onto something, or am I just seeing shadows?
Remember, this is speculative based on what we're observing in the market, and while manipulation is a concern, it's one among many factors influencing crypto prices.
Whats your thouhts?
BTC CME GAP
- A new gap was created this weekend on the CME.
- BTC's price is higher there, which is typical.
- A gap isn’t always filled; while many do eventually close as prices retrace, it’s never guaranteed.
- This isn’t a price analysis, but rather an alert to monitor the gap.
- I’ll add my previous gap analysis in the comments.
Happy Tr4Ding
Bitcon currently filling the CME futures gapWe knew it was likely this would happen at some point in the near future from when the gap was formed and it appears like now is the time. Price action needs to dip as low as $77,920to fill the gap entirely. History tells us the correction should be over with not long after the gap is filled. The only way this isn’t the case is if the top of the bull market was indeed already in, which is a very minute probability but not impossible. *not financial advice*
BTC CME MMBM is over If we use data like Market Maker for the purchase, then perhaps we have completed it, now MMSM has worked
We see that December was aсamulation, January - manipulation and February - distribution with the completion and withdrawal of monthly liquidity for January, now we are in the zone of immediate inefficiency, 82-88k + emptiness at 77-80k
I will consider NWOG for 23 feb as resistance and a search for a short entry if the price goes there due to weekly inefficiency
Inflation Fears Weigh More than China Tech GainsDeepSeek Is Not the Market’s Biggest Concern
Over the past few days following the emergence of DeepSeek, Nasdaq or technology stocks have experienced a notable 6% decline across all major U.S. indices. However, this recent pullback pales in comparison to the more substantial drop seen in December.
Small-Cap Stocks Take a Bigger Hit
The Russell 2000, which tracks small and medium-sized enterprises in the U.S., suffered an even sharper decline, falling by 12%. This suggests that broader economic concerns, beyond just the tech sector, are weighing on investor sentiment.
Then, What Is It?
On December 18, during the highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a widely expected 0.25% rate cut, bringing the Fed Funds Rate down to 4.5%. However, it wasn’t the rate cut that rattled the market—it was Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that followed.
“… the median participant projected that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be 3.9% at the end of 2025, indicating expectations of two additional rate cuts in 2025, down from the four projected in the previous summary.”
This statement signaled that the Fed remains hawkish on inflation, with expectations of only two rate cuts in 2025 instead of the previously projected four. As a result, borrowing costs are likely to remain elevated at around 3.9%, a scenario that investors had not fully priced in. The market reacted negatively, with indices falling sharply over the subsequent weeks.
Market Stabilization Amid China Tech Competition
Despite the recent downturn, there are signs of stabilization, with major indices still maintaining their position along an established uptrend line. As long as inflation continues to ease—hovering around 3% or, ideally, heading toward the Fed’s 2% target—the broader market outlook remains positive.
From a strategic standpoint, I will continue to focus on buying dips if the market respects the uptrend line. However, if hopes for rate cuts in 2025 fade and the trend begins to break below key support levels, my strategy will shift toward selling into strength when opportunities arise.
Short-Term Trading Outlook
To refine my trading decisions, I have also drawn trendlines on an hourly chart. Applying the same uptrend principles, these lines serve as a guideline for short-term trading in the Micro S&P 500 futures.
With the latest January Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading at 3%—higher than expected—I will be closely monitoring my daily chart's uptrend line.
While external economic conditions remain unpredictable, adapting trading strategies in response to market trends is key to staying ahead.
Please see the following disclaimer and information that you may find useful:
E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options
Ticker: ES
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $12.50
Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options
Ticker: MES
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $1.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• My mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
Trading competition: www.tradingview.com
Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Recap: CL and ES Weekly Plan analysis & Key LevelsNYMEX:CL1!
CME_MINI:ES1!
In this trading trading view blog we will refer to our February 3, 2025, weekly trading plans.
Our main idea for ES futures was to get long above yearly open, also our key LIS (Line in Sand). And our main idea for CL futures was to stay short below February monthly open targeting mcVAL and then waiting for an opportunity to get long at our key bullish support zone.
Below we explain our thoughts behind these ideas and how we choose our key levels and the process to create our plan.
ES Trade Idea: Key Levels and Strategies Amid Macro Uncertainty :
From our ES trade plan, scenario 1 played out. The line in sand for long trades was Key LIS/Yearly open. Click on the link above to see how this played out!
Our key levels for the trade idea noted in the blog were:
(mcVAH) micro composite value area high: 6,134.25
Key LIS/Yearly Open: 5,949.25
(mcVAL) micro composite value area low: 5,914.25
(CVAH) Composite Value Area High: 5,924
mcVAH held as an area of initial resistance. Our neutral zone at 6,068.25 - 6,051.50 acted as a zone for pullback after initial push higher. The remaining week was choppy with some days more volatile and playing out per our scenario 1 in our trading plan.
CL Trade Idea: Key Levels & Strategies Amid Volatility:
From our CL trade plan, scenario 1 also played out.
Why we favored this as scenario 1 was due to rejection confirmed at January 2025 mid range. The provided a good short opportunity below Jan 2025 mid or February monthly open towards our key levels as specified in the trading plan. We mentioned the following key levels in last week’s plan.
Micro Composite Value Area High (mCVAH) January 2025: 76.00
January 2025 mid- range: 74.96
February Monthly Open: 74.14
Micro Composite Value Area Low (mCVAL) January 2025: 71.82
Yearly Open: 70.52
2024 Mid- Range: 70.40
mCVAL provided a good target for short trades, while Yearly open and 2024 Mid-range confluence at our key bull support provided a good spot to initiate the long trade idea.
Following a consistent process can help traders stick to a trading approach that can help them achieve consistency. Losses are an inherent part of trading, executing the trade plan also involves weighing which scenario will play out on the hard right edge in real- time. However, our market analysis blogs are aimed to educate traders, showing whatever their methodology or approach, consistency in preparation and having a roadmap of important price levels will help them distinguish between getting caught in noise versus important areas to engage with markets.
Market Update: Tariffs, Trade Shifts & Bitcoin's Next MoveCME:BTC1!
News and Economic Calendar Update
President Trump announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, effective Monday, with reciprocal tariffs to follow on Tuesday or Wednesday. As Trump has shared, “if they tax us, we tax them the same amount.” This move is expected to reshape global trade relations, with China reportedly considering probes into U.S. tech firms such as Broadcom (AVGO) and Synopsys (SNPS), according to WSJ. Japan's PM Ishiba remains optimistic about avoiding higher U.S. tariffs, while Australia and India are negotiating exemptions and trade concessions. Meanwhile, the EU has hinted at retaliatory measures should new tariffs be imposed.
The U.S. dollar strengthened following Friday’s jobs report and fresh tariff announcements, while the Japanese yen under-performed. The EUR/USD briefly dipped below 1.03 before rebounding, and the British pound remained stable ahead of comments from BoE’s Mann. U.S. Treasury yields were unchanged, while European bunds edged higher amid rising trade concerns.
Gold surged to an all-time high above $2,900/oz, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets due to tariff uncertainty. Meanwhile, crude oil reached session highs, and European natural gas prices climbed to a two-year peak due to colder temperatures and tight storage.
Looking Ahead
Key upcoming data releases include Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, U.S. CPI data, Chinese M2 Money Supply, and U.S. retail sales. Additionally, multiple central bank officials are scheduled to speak throughout the week, providing further insights into monetary policy direction.
Macro Update: Trade War 2.0 and Tariff Shifts Impact Markets.
The latest reciprocal tariff announcements from Trump, in our view, presents a strategic opportunity for the U.S. This approach enables negotiations for lower tariffs on U.S. exports with individual trading partners, fostering a more flexible and targeted trade policy. This shift aligns more with global trade integration and could provide a more balanced framework for U.S. exporters.
Gold continues to exhibit renewed strength as a safe-haven asset, marking fresh all-time highs amid market uncertainty. Meanwhile, Bitcoin—often referred to as "digital gold"—has lagged behind, struggling in a climate of risk-off sentiment. However, it remains within its post-election trading range, signaling resilience despite broader market volatility.
At the fiscal level, U.S. House Republican leaders are proposing federal spending cuts ranging between $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion, according to Punchbowl sources. These cuts are expected to focus heavily on Medicaid spending. However, the effectiveness of government spending adjustments remains in question—whether such measures will enhance efficiency or simply reduce overall spending is yet to be seen. In addition, extending President Trump’s tax proposals could cut revenue by $5-11T over a decade, potentially pushing U.S. debt to 132-149% of GDP by 2035. Senate Republicans propose $342B in border and defense spending, with offsetting cuts. Meanwhile, Musk’s DOGE Service aims to automate government functions, reduce the federal workforce, and slash spending.
Bitcoin Big Picture:
Bitcoin has been consolidating after making new all time highs post US elections. Although price action and consolidation points towards further bullishness. We remain cautious and prepared for any of the scenarios that may happen as a result of many different factors influencing risk assets and market sentiment.
To better manage your exposure to Bitcoin, consider using CME’s Micro Bitcoin and Bitcoin Friday Futures . Additionally, you can take part in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, allowing you to showcase your Micro Bitcoin trading skills in The Leap —risk-free.
Key Levels to Watch
Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan.
Yearly Hi: 110,920
mCVAH: 104,400
Dec 2024 mid range: 101,570
Jan 2025 mid range: 100,610
mCVPOC: 98,075
mCVAL: 93,730
Key Bull Support: 92,505 - 90,000
Scenario 1: Further chop and acceptance
In this scenario, we may see price action remain range bound. Traders look for clarity on how policy may affect market sentiment before further committing capital.
Scenario 2: New ATHs
Price attempts to create new ATHs which marks a significant move. Although bitcoin created new all time highs in January 2025, these were rejected and price action pointed towards market top.
Scenario 3: Souring market sentiment
Scenario 2 and 3 requires remaining alert to all developments as fundamental and macro news is turning ever so significant in driving short-term volatility and price action.
Any further hint towards tighter monetary policy and tighter fiscal policy may send BTC prices lower very quickly.
Analyzing Our Crude Oil Trade Plan & Key LevelsNYMEX:CL1!
This is our first blog recapping the trade plan from the prior week. In this blog, traders can take a sneak peek into why we choose and plot the levels we do on our charts. However, these are simply our thoughts and ideas on the market—we do not know what will happen. You should carefully consider whether this approach aligns with your own trading strategy and risk tolerance before making any decisions.
Do you struggle with analysis paralysis in your trading? Don’t worry—we will help you develop a process that you can customize and apply to your own market approach.
Markets by nature have randomness and uncertainty built in. Markets move based on the collective psyche of the participants. These footprints left behind by the collective participants analyzed through volume profiling and multiple time frames is what provides us with our selected support and resistance zones.
To help you better understand our chart setup, here’s how we define key zones and indicators:
On our charts, we use color-coded zones to highlight key market levels:
Green zones indicate bull support areas.
Red zones represent bearish support areas.
Blue zones act as neutral zones but serve as important inflection points.
The Line in the Sand (LIS) is a crucial reference point:
A single LIS can be used to validate both long and short trade ideas.
Alternatively, there may be separate LIS levels—one confirming long trades above it and another confirming short trades below it.
Some other terms that you will commonly find in our blogs are:
VPOC (Volume Point of Control): The price level with the highest traded volume within a given volume profile.
VAH (Value Area High): The upper boundary of the value area, typically representing the +1 standard deviation level in the volume distribution.
VAL (Value Area Low): The lower boundary of the value area, typically representing the -1 standard deviation level in the volume distribution.
Value Area: The range where approximately 70% of the total traded volume occurs, falling within one standard deviation of the distribution.
Important and significant levels on our charts are marked. You can see on the crude oil chart, that we consider mid ranges of defined year, quarter, month, week as significant areas of interest and reaction by market participants.
We also give importance to HVN (High Volume Nodes) and LVN (Low Volume Nodes) and how price usually reacts to these visible distributions of high and low volumes on the volume profile.
Our analysis begins with four key questions that guide our market perspective and decision-making process:
What has the market done?
What is it trying to do?
How good of a job is it doing?
What is more likely to happen from here?
These questions are not intended to decipher the reasons behind market movements or predict outcomes based on personal bias. Instead, they provide a structured framework using Auction Market Theory, Volume Profile, and market-generated significant levels to develop a trade plan—whether for the day or the week.
This trade plan does not dictate specific trades to take; rather, it serves as a roadmap, outlining the key areas where we may want to engage with the market.
To illustrate the importance of structured market analysis and preparation, let's review how our recent crude oil trade plans have played out:
Week of January 27, 2025 – Crude Oil Plan Recap :
The initial trade plan played out, but a pullback occurred.
Buyers stepped in, pushing prices back toward the Blue zone (also the LIS for longs and shorts).
Long positions were only valid after confirming a reclaim of the January 2025 mid-range.
Crude oil then moved sharply toward our key bull support zone before rebounding higher.
This completed the trade plan scenario outlined in red.
Week of January 13, 2025 – Key Takeaways :
We identified the start of bullish momentum in crude oil following a long Q4 2024 consolidation.
Two short trade scenarios were outlined, with the first playing out as expected.
Reviewing past trade plans helps traders develop a structured market preparation process.
This analysis was featured in the Editor’s Pick, mapping out key levels and our thought process.
As we mentioned earlier, we do not have a crystal ball but we do have insights when planning for the week. If you are incorporating this weekly plan, please also monitor and be ready to adjust with new information that is provided on the hard right edge.
If you click the play button on most of our trade plans and just consider that week’s price movement, you may notice that our plans have thoughts and efforts put in them.
ES Trade Idea: Key Levels and Strategies Amid Macro UncertaintyCME_MINI:ES1!
ES futures opened with a gap down on Sunday.
With numerous macro headlines, President Donald Trump’s comments on the Fed’s decision last week, and ongoing trade war tariffs, traders may struggle to distinguish what truly matters for the markets from the noise.
In our opinion, do not let macro headlines cloud your judgement. Have a trade plan and be ready to adjust with market conditions and volatility. One way to mitigate risk is by utilizing micro CME contracts , allowing for more precise risk management during volatile market conditions. Additionally, you can participate in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, giving you the opportunity to test your skills in The Leap without risking real money.
Remember, it's NFP week, and several other key economic data releases are also on the calendar.
In our view, it is important to zoom out and reduce key levels on your charts to ones that are significant.
Key Levels:
Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan.
(mcVAH) micro composite value area high: 6,134.25
Key LIS/Yearly Open: 5,949.25
(mcVAL) micro composite value area low: 5,914.25
(CVAH) Composite Value Area High: 5,924
Scenario 1: Long above Key LIS
Our key LIS is still Yearly open as it was discussed in last week’s idea. We are looking for long trade setups at this level.
Scenario 2: Short below Key LIS
If the price moves lower and holds below a key level, we will look for short trade setups targeting our green support zones on the chart from mcVAL and CVAH confluence.
Is This Sell-Off Another "Buy the Dip" Opportunity?Macro Update
Index futures sold off during overnight trading as market sentiment turned risk-off.
Newswires reported that, after Colombia denied entry to two U.S. deportation aircraft, President Trump announced emergency tariffs of 25% on all Colombian imports, with plans to increase them to 50% next week. Additionally, The Wall Street Journal noted growing support among President Trump's advisors to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday to initiate negotiations.
Meanwhile, Chinese startup DeepSeek is challenging U.S. dominance in the AI sector by introducing a low-cost model rivaling OpenAI's o1. This development may intensify geopolitical and economic tensions.
Adding to the unease, Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs missed expectations. Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1, below the forecast of 50.1. Markets in China and most of Asia will remain closed starting Tuesday for the Lunar New Year holiday, which could lead to lower regional liquidity.
Looking ahead, the week features several high-impact events:
Wednesday, January 29:
Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the first FOMC press conference of 2025.
Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
Thursday, January 30th:
ECB interest rate decision
Preliminary Q4 GDP data (QoQ).
Friday, January 31st:
Core PCE Price Index (Dec).
ES Futures Update
This week is packed with critical data releases, and macroeconomic developments are having a stronger influence on short-term price fluctuations. It’s an important time to step back, zoom out, and identify key levels of interest to engage with the market.
Despite the overnight sell-off and heightened volatility, the auction process remains orderly. Managing risk is paramount, as losses are an inherent part of trading.
Key Observations:
ES futures bounced off the yearly open in overnight trading, marking it as our critical Line in the Sand (LIS).
If prices stay above the LIS, markets are likely to consolidate further this week, with FOMC and other data releases determining the next move.
A break below the yearly open could open the door to short trade opportunities targeting the support zones identified on the chart.
Scenario 1: Wait and See
Allow the market to digest the sell-off. Look for long setups from the LIS. Key events like the FOMC decision will likely influence market direction, but unexpected negative news could overshadow these data releases.
Scenario 2: Sustained Sell-Off
If a catalyst triggers further downside, the market may test support levels near 5,750 and 5,800. Below the LIS, short setups may be viable if supported by news or price action that aligns with a bearish trade thesis.
For traders looking to manage risk more effectively, consider using Micro E-mini S&P 500 contracts , which are 1/10th the size of standard ES contracts.
This week’s data releases, geopolitical developments, and tariff announcements are likely to shape market sentiment. Stay cautious and adapt to new information as it unfolds. Risk management remains the cornerstone of success in volatile markets.
Not confident to incorporate these into your trading plan? Why not incorporate our trade ideas to your trade plan in TradingView and CME’s paper trading competition; “The Leap”.
ES Futures Trade Idea - Trump Inauguration MLK weekMacroeconomic News:
US markets were closed yesterday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. ES, NQ and YM futures saw mild gains yesterday, RTY futures outperformed.
As the 47th president of the United States, Donald Trump took the oath of office promising to protect the border, address inflation, and restructure trade policies. In addition to withdrawing from the Paris Climate Treaty and signing orders to cancel 78 Biden-era acts, he also started energy production reforms, such as drilling for oil in the Arctic. Trump discussed agreements over TikTok ownership, threatened global tariffs, and suggested imposing duties on the EU, Canada, and Mexico. He urged a speedy conclusion to the conflict in Ukraine and gave top priority to evaluating China's adherence to trade agreements. Trump stopped importing oil from Venezuela, emphasized energy independence, and lifted sanctions on Israeli settlers. The goal of bold measures is to put American workers and security first.
Following yesterday's strong selling pressure, which was brought on by the announcement that President Trump would not impose tariffs on the first day of his presidency, the dollar is now showing signs of recovery. Nevertheless, Trump's statement that he is considering 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and believes they would be implemented on February 1st shattered trade confidence overnight.
In our opinion, buy the rumor-sell the fact, sell the rumor-buy the fact, will likely be a key theme during Trump’s presidential term.
ES Futures update:
As we can see in the chart above, ES futures are currently above our Line in the Sand, Yearly Open at 5,949.25.
ES futures also made a higher low on Jan 13th, 2025 compared to Nov 4th, 2024 swing low.
ES futures formed a bull flag after the Dec 18th, 2024 FOMC announcement. Price has now broken out of the bull flag channel.
Key Levels to Watch
Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan.
Jan 6th Weekly Hi: 6,068.25
Jan 13th Weekly Hi: 6,051.50
Yearly Open | LIS (Line in Sand): 5,949.25
Resistance R1: 6,105 - 6,115
Resistance R2: 6,145 - 6,155
All time highs: 6,184.50
Scenario 1: Breakout continuation
Price has broken out of bull flag formation from the Dec 18th, 2024 FOMC announcement. Break above current area of consolidation marked in Blue zone forming the area between Jan 6th and Jan 13th Weekly Highs. Price heads towards R1, R2 and R3 targets.
Scenario 2: Further consolidation
Price further consolidates this week awaiting a catalyst to trend higher next week. Strong earnings season propels US futures and stocks higher.
We encourage you to monitor these levels closely and incorporate them into your trade planning. Share your thoughts or insights on these key levels in the comments below.
BTC CMEAfter touching the weekly BISI, the price dropped behind the stops in the shorts, the daily BIs became an inversion and gave support to the price without pushing it down.
If this is a Екгьз rally, we will see how the price will react within 4 hours, a selling pattern is formed, there is inefficiency, a block of refusal is possible, which can lower the price to 0.5 range
Will this move be to fill the weekly BISI again or will it continue to send orders up?
Now those who entered long have opened positions, I think the price will follow their stops
BTC CME Short Model and Long ModelNow Bitcoin is in the Premium zone, where it is better to consider short positions for a short-term movement to the Discount zone. If the Market Maker goes for equal lows, which is a good exit point, or if the Market Maker goes long, then the exact entry will be better in the Discount zone, return to where the accumulation was, and see what candles will be formed at this level.
If we look at TOTAL 1 2 3, we will see that these assets are also in the Premium zone, which can also be good support for short positions.
BTC Target Price & Supports after 12/30/2024 structure break.BTC has broken its current market structure and is now seeking new support. I’ve identified three key support zones and a potential target price to monitor for the future. I plan to execute three trades, each with a 2% risk allocation. The exit strategy will be determined later, but for now, the target price serves as the anticipated level for evaluation.
Trade Idea 2024-12-30 and Review of 2024As the year comes to a close, we expect it to be a quiet week. If you haven’t already, now is an excellent time to set your trading goals for the coming year. Where will your focus be? Which markets will you trade actively? What is your risk management plan?
It is also a good time to complete a review for 2024 if you have not already! Keeping a trading journal is essential for tracking progress and learning from your mistakes.
Active trading, like other high-performance activities, requires resilience, focus, and a winning mindset, but even with these attributes, losses are a natural part of the process. Always trade with a clear plan, manage your risks effectively, and never trade with more capital than you can afford to lose.
As we wrap up the year, we are sharing a couple of the most popular charts we reviewed in 2024 and reflecting on the following questions we asked ourselves:
What has the market done?
What is it trying to do?
How good of a job is it doing?
What is likely to happen from here?
Volume profile provides key insights into market auction and interaction of buyers and sellers.
This is how we approach markets although there are many other ways of doing so.
Big Picture ES Futures:
Key Levels:
2024 mid point: 5574.50
2024 VPOC: 5441.75
2024 Value Area High: 5844.25
2024 High: 6184.50
Fib Extensions Target 1: 6388
Fib Extension Target 2: 6514.25
Fib Extension Target 3: 6590.75
Fib Extension Target 4: 6695.50
Big Picture BTC Futures:
Key Levels:
2024 High: 108,960
2024 Mid point: 77,865
2024 VPOC: 69,710
2024 Value Area High: 79,525
Key Support for Bulls: 78,000 - 76,000
Big Picture CL Futures:
Key Levels:
Composite Value Area High: 79.65
2024 Value Area High: 74.90
2024 Mid point: 72.14
2024 VPOC: 69.70
2024 Value Area Low: 66.70
Composite Value Area Low: 63.55
We await the start of the new year to further gauge short term price action, volume and ranges for the upcoming year! Happy trading from EdgeClear! We wish you all a great 2025!
Disclaimer: The views expressed are opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
Price Gap Examples - Bitcoin FuturesSharing for educational purposes only.
█ Three Types of Gaps
There are three general types of gaps:
Breakaway Gap
Runaway (or Measuring) Gap
Exhaustion Gap
█ 1 — The Breakaway Gap
The breakaway gap usually occurs:
At the completion of an important price pattern.
At the beginning of a significant market move
Examples:
After a market completes a major basing pattern, the breaking of resistance often involves a breakaway gap.
Breaking major trendlines signaling a reversal of trend may also involve this type of gap
Key Characteristics:
Heavy volume often accompanies breakaway gaps.
They are typically not filled (or only partially filled).
In an uptrend, upside gaps act as support areas on subsequent corrections.
A close below the gap is a sign of weakness.
█ 2 — The Runaway or Measuring Gap
The runaway gap forms:
Midway through a trend (uptrend or downtrend).
Indicates the market is moving effortlessly, usually on moderate volume.
Key Characteristics:
In an uptrend, it signals strength.
In a downtrend, it signals weakness.
Acts as support or resistance during subsequent corrections.
Why "Measuring" Gap?
It often occurs at the halfway point of a trend.
By measuring the distance the trend has already traveled, the probable extent of the remaining move can be estimated by doubling the amount already achieved.
█ 3 — The Exhaustion Gap
The exhaustion gap appears:
Near the end of a market move.
Key Characteristics:
Occurs after objectives have been achieved and other gap types (breakaway and runaway) have been identified.
In an uptrend, prices leap forward in a final push but quickly fade.
Within a couple of days or a week, prices turn lower.
█ Conclusion
By understanding the types of gaps and their characteristics, traders can better interpret market signals and anticipate potential trends or reversals.
█ Source:
Murphy, John J. Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications. New York Institute of Finance, 1999. Chapter 4, "Price Gaps," pp. 94-98.
BTC CME Regression Trend Re-visiting an old chart, I put in a regression trend channel on March 11 2024, before the halving. BTC has just come back to the bottom part of that channel. Should retest bottom, then middle, another test, then test the top , in theory. nothing about the next 6 months is known. watch the liquidity cycle. Gonna get crazy, be safe, hardware wallets everyone!
Where from here? my thoughts are $225K, but..., ladder out at fibs, the 61.8's