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S&P 500 E-mini Futures VWAP Breakout Strategy Sharing a solid intraday idea for you all – something I’ve been running on the S&P 500 E-mini Futures (30-min chart) lately, and it’s been delivering clean setups. VWAP Breakout Play I’m focusing on simple VWAP-based breakouts. Here’s the breakdown: The setup: • Wait for price to break above or below the VWAP with strong momentum (big candles + solid volume). • I always confirm with a momentum indicator like MACD or RSI to filter out the noise. Entries: • Breakout Long: When price pushes above VWAP + momentum aligns. • Breakout Short: When price dumps below VWAP + momentum confirmation. Exits & Stops: • Scale out at session highs/lows or key pivots. • Stop-loss goes just beyond VWAP to keep the risk tight. • If momentum fades, I’m out. Why I like it: VWAP attracts institutional flow, and combining it with momentum gives this strategy a solid edge, especially around U.S. session opens when volatility kicks in. Give it a try and tweak it to your liking!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by CatalystNKD
ES Futures Market Outlook & Key LevelsCME_MINI:ES1! As we discussed in last week’s TradingView blog, the ES futures are currently undergoing a 10% correction. You can access the full context through the link here. Rollover Notice: Today marks the rollover of ES futures to the June 2025 contract. The rollover adjustment using Friday’s settlement prices for ESH2025 and ESM2025 is +52.25. To map out the new levels for ESM2025, simply add +52.25 to the levels on ESH2025. Note: TradingView will roll over the continuous ES1! chart on Tuesday, March 18, 2025. Key Events This Week: This week, all eyes will be on the FOMC rate decision , FOMC press conference , and the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP ), which includes the Fed’s dot plot, inflation expectations, and growth forecasts for the next two years. This release will set the tone for market movements, at least until the clarity of the looming reciprocal tariffs deadline on April 2, 2025. Key Levels to Watch: • Bullish LIS / Yearly Open 2025: 5,949.25 • Key Level to Reclaim: 5,795 - 5,805 • Resistance Zone: 5,704.50 - 5,719.75 • Bearish LIS / Mid Range 2024: 5,574.50 • 2024-YTD mCVAL: 5,449.25 • 2022 CVAH: 5,280.25 Market Scenarios: Scenario 1: Fed Support ("Fed Put") The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady this week. However, markets are forward-looking, so the key focus will be on the updated SEP forecast and the Fed’s press conference. A dovish stance and flexibility to support the US economy, including rate cut expectations moving to the May/June meetings, will drive sentiment. This would imply markets pricing in more rate cuts throughout 2025. The CME Fedwatch tool is a useful resource for tracking Fed fund probabilities and comparing these with the dot plot projections. Scenario 2: Trade War 2.0 If the Fed remains in a "wait and see" mode, maintaining a restrictive stance while uncertainties surrounding Trade War 2.0 persist, markets may face heightened volatility. The combination of a restrictive Fed policy and geopolitical tensions could act as a double whammy for markets.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
Recap ES Futures Weekly PlanCME_MINI:ES1! In this TradingView blog, we’ll recap the price action and share our insights from the weekly trade plan posted on March 3rd, 2025. Our Scenario 3 highlighted mounting risks, with weaker economic data reigniting the stagflation theme. While the price action largely aligned with our expectations, it extended further downward than anticipated. Economic data was mixed: PMIs exceeded expectations, while the NFP report came in lower than forecasted. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, and average hourly earnings data showed mixed results. The Month-over-Month figures were in line with expectations, but Year-over-Year average hourly earnings came in slightly lower at 4% versus the consensus of 4.1%. In addition, headline news and tariff uncertainties dampened sentiment across the board. Our approach primarily involves volume profiling and market auction theory to map out price levels and set expectations based on the prevailing market context at the start of each week. However, as fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, geopolitics, and headline news gain increasing significance and impact the market, we draw on our accumulated experience to incorporate these elements into our analysis. When market regimes shift, technical analysis alone often proves insufficient. A strong understanding of fundamentals, macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitics is crucial to staying aligned with what’s actually happening in the markets, rather than relying on your personal thoughts and assumptions. Given the myriad factors influencing the economy and markets, traders should recognize that each approach has its merits. We recommend sticking with the strategy that works best for you.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
Putting the current pullback from ATHs into context ES FuturesCME_MINI:ES1! Big Picture: ATH on December 6th, 2024: 6,184.50 There has been no significant correction or pullback since the ATH. Currently, the market has pulled back ~8.20% from the ATH. The previous correction (over a 10% pullback, but less than a 20% downturn) occurred after ES futures hit an all-time high of 5,856 on July 15th, 2024. The market bottomed out on August 5th, 2024. Currently, ES futures are trading below the 50% retracement level from the ATH on December 6th, 2024, and the swing low on August 5th, 2024, at 5,719.25. Given the current "risk-off" sentiment, let's review the updated price map for ES Futures. Key Levels: Important level to reclaim if no correction: 5,795.25 - 5,800 Key LVN (Low Volume Node): 5,738 - 5,696 Mid 2024 range: 5,574.50 Key Support: 5,567.25 - 5,528.75 2024 YTD mCVAL (Market Composite Value Area Low): 5,449.25 2022 CVAH (Composite Value Area High): 5,280 Key Support: 5,567.25 - 5,528.75 This zone is important in the event of a 10% pullback, which could lead to a bounce thereafter. On our regular 4-hour time frame, which we use for weekly analysis and preparation, higher lows have been breached, and ES futures are now trading below the lows from November 4th, 2024, January 13th, 2025, and February 28th, 2025. The probable next downside target is the 50% retracement of the 2024 range, which stands at 5,574.50. Unless we see a sustained bounce that reclaims the 5,795.25 - 5,800 zone, the key support level at 5,567.25 - 5,528.75 is likely to be tested, aligning with our expected 10% pullback. Note that a bear market (i.e., a pullback greater than 20%) wouldn't begin until prices drop to around 4,900, which is still about 750 points away from the current price level of 5,650. Considering all the above, what can we expect this week? CPI and PPI data are due this week, and the market is currently in "risk-off" mode. This sentiment is exacerbated by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's comments on needing more data before altering rate path, combined with tariffs complicating the US economy. What price level might prompt policymakers to adjust their stance? The Fed’s dual mandate considers both 2% inflation and low unemployment. With the unemployment rate edging above 4% and inflation remaining high, this upcoming inflation reading is critical. We believe this report may trigger volatility not seen in recent months with CPI releases. We have the SEP and FOMC rate decision coming up on March 19th, 2024. Scenario 1: Soft CPI than expectations Expecting volatile price action, however, a V-shaped recovery given softer CPI reading. Markets go in wait and see Scenario 2: Range bound week In this scenario, we expect a range bound week, with inflation print in line and markets in wait and see mode for FED FOMC announcement. Scenario 3: High CPI print With a higher CPI print, FED will be in a difficult position to cut rates. Will this bad news be bad for the market or good? Mounting risks point to further downside if we do not get any pivot on macro level to support the economy.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
ETH has two pending CME Gaps#ETH #Analysis Description --------------------------------------------------------------- + ETH has two pending CME future gaps to filled. + First gap is around 2900-3400 range and second gap is around 2500-2600 range. + Sooner or later these CME gaps will get filled. I'm expecting Gap2 get filled in this or next month and Gap 1 in the second or third quarter. --------------------------------------------------------------- Enhance, Trade, Grow --------------------------------------------------------------- Feel free to share your thoughts and insights. Don't forget to like and follow us for more trading ideas and discussions. Best Regards, VectorAlgo
CME:ETH1!Long
by VectorAlgo
BTC will fill CME GAP at around 77KWe're seeing some wild swings in Bitcoin's price, and I'm calling it: this isn't just the market doing its thing. I mean, where's all the BTC on exchanges? It's like there's none left, and the prices are shooting up to levels that Wall Street boys would think twice about jumping into. This smells like big-time manipulation by the heavy hitters, like those hedge fund giants and the exchanges themselves. They've got the power to make the market dance, and with so little Bitcoin floating around, every move they make has an outsized impact. It's like they're playing with a loaded deck. I'm not saying I've got the smoking gun, but the signs are there. When you see prices that don't match the supply, you gotta wonder, right? Are we just pawns in their game, or is there something else at play? Let's keep our eyes peeled, because if this is manipulation, it's on a whole new level. What do you guys think? Am I onto something, or am I just seeing shadows? Remember, this is speculative based on what we're observing in the market, and while manipulation is a concern, it's one among many factors influencing crypto prices. Whats your thouhts?
CME:BTC1!Short
by r0b1n4t0r
1
Bitcon currently filling the CME futures gapWe knew it was likely this would happen at some point in the near future from when the gap was formed and it appears like now is the time. Price action needs to dip as low as $77,920to fill the gap entirely. History tells us the correction should be over with not long after the gap is filled. The only way this isn’t the case is if the top of the bull market was indeed already in, which is a very minute probability but not impossible. *not financial advice*
CME:BTC1!
by DrDovetail
BTC CME MMBM is over If we use data like Market Maker for the purchase, then perhaps we have completed it, now MMSM has worked We see that December was aсamulation, January - manipulation and February - distribution with the completion and withdrawal of monthly liquidity for January, now we are in the zone of immediate inefficiency, 82-88k + emptiness at 77-80k I will consider NWOG for 23 feb as resistance and a search for a short entry if the price goes there due to weekly inefficiency
CME:BTC1!Short
by Jojo2075
Inflation Fears Weigh More than China Tech GainsDeepSeek Is Not the Market’s Biggest Concern Over the past few days following the emergence of DeepSeek, Nasdaq or technology stocks have experienced a notable 6% decline across all major U.S. indices. However, this recent pullback pales in comparison to the more substantial drop seen in December. Small-Cap Stocks Take a Bigger Hit The Russell 2000, which tracks small and medium-sized enterprises in the U.S., suffered an even sharper decline, falling by 12%. This suggests that broader economic concerns, beyond just the tech sector, are weighing on investor sentiment. Then, What Is It? On December 18, during the highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a widely expected 0.25% rate cut, bringing the Fed Funds Rate down to 4.5%. However, it wasn’t the rate cut that rattled the market—it was Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that followed. “… the median participant projected that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be 3.9% at the end of 2025, indicating expectations of two additional rate cuts in 2025, down from the four projected in the previous summary.” This statement signaled that the Fed remains hawkish on inflation, with expectations of only two rate cuts in 2025 instead of the previously projected four. As a result, borrowing costs are likely to remain elevated at around 3.9%, a scenario that investors had not fully priced in. The market reacted negatively, with indices falling sharply over the subsequent weeks. Market Stabilization Amid China Tech Competition Despite the recent downturn, there are signs of stabilization, with major indices still maintaining their position along an established uptrend line. As long as inflation continues to ease—hovering around 3% or, ideally, heading toward the Fed’s 2% target—the broader market outlook remains positive. From a strategic standpoint, I will continue to focus on buying dips if the market respects the uptrend line. However, if hopes for rate cuts in 2025 fade and the trend begins to break below key support levels, my strategy will shift toward selling into strength when opportunities arise. Short-Term Trading Outlook To refine my trading decisions, I have also drawn trendlines on an hourly chart. Applying the same uptrend principles, these lines serve as a guideline for short-term trading in the Micro S&P 500 futures. With the latest January Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading at 3%—higher than expected—I will be closely monitoring my daily chart's uptrend line. While external economic conditions remain unpredictable, adapting trading strategies in response to market trends is key to staying ahead. Please see the following disclaimer and information that you may find useful: E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options Ticker: ES Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $12.50 Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options Ticker: MES Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $1.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • My mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Trading competition: www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by konhow
Recap: CL and ES Weekly Plan analysis & Key LevelsNYMEX:CL1! CME_MINI:ES1! In this trading trading view blog we will refer to our February 3, 2025, weekly trading plans. Our main idea for ES futures was to get long above yearly open, also our key LIS (Line in Sand). And our main idea for CL futures was to stay short below February monthly open targeting mcVAL and then waiting for an opportunity to get long at our key bullish support zone. Below we explain our thoughts behind these ideas and how we choose our key levels and the process to create our plan. ES Trade Idea: Key Levels and Strategies Amid Macro Uncertainty : From our ES trade plan, scenario 1 played out. The line in sand for long trades was Key LIS/Yearly open. Click on the link above to see how this played out! Our key levels for the trade idea noted in the blog were: (mcVAH) micro composite value area high: 6,134.25 Key LIS/Yearly Open: 5,949.25 (mcVAL) micro composite value area low: 5,914.25 (CVAH) Composite Value Area High: 5,924 mcVAH held as an area of initial resistance. Our neutral zone at 6,068.25 - 6,051.50 acted as a zone for pullback after initial push higher. The remaining week was choppy with some days more volatile and playing out per our scenario 1 in our trading plan. CL Trade Idea: Key Levels & Strategies Amid Volatility: From our CL trade plan, scenario 1 also played out. Why we favored this as scenario 1 was due to rejection confirmed at January 2025 mid range. The provided a good short opportunity below Jan 2025 mid or February monthly open towards our key levels as specified in the trading plan. We mentioned the following key levels in last week’s plan. Micro Composite Value Area High (mCVAH) January 2025: 76.00 January 2025 mid- range: 74.96 February Monthly Open: 74.14 Micro Composite Value Area Low (mCVAL) January 2025: 71.82 Yearly Open: 70.52 2024 Mid- Range: 70.40 mCVAL provided a good target for short trades, while Yearly open and 2024 Mid-range confluence at our key bull support provided a good spot to initiate the long trade idea. Following a consistent process can help traders stick to a trading approach that can help them achieve consistency. Losses are an inherent part of trading, executing the trade plan also involves weighing which scenario will play out on the hard right edge in real- time. However, our market analysis blogs are aimed to educate traders, showing whatever their methodology or approach, consistency in preparation and having a roadmap of important price levels will help them distinguish between getting caught in noise versus important areas to engage with markets.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Market Update: Tariffs, Trade Shifts & Bitcoin's Next MoveCME:BTC1! News and Economic Calendar Update President Trump announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, effective Monday, with reciprocal tariffs to follow on Tuesday or Wednesday. As Trump has shared, “if they tax us, we tax them the same amount.” This move is expected to reshape global trade relations, with China reportedly considering probes into U.S. tech firms such as Broadcom (AVGO) and Synopsys (SNPS), according to WSJ. Japan's PM Ishiba remains optimistic about avoiding higher U.S. tariffs, while Australia and India are negotiating exemptions and trade concessions. Meanwhile, the EU has hinted at retaliatory measures should new tariffs be imposed. The U.S. dollar strengthened following Friday’s jobs report and fresh tariff announcements, while the Japanese yen under-performed. The EUR/USD briefly dipped below 1.03 before rebounding, and the British pound remained stable ahead of comments from BoE’s Mann. U.S. Treasury yields were unchanged, while European bunds edged higher amid rising trade concerns. Gold surged to an all-time high above $2,900/oz, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets due to tariff uncertainty. Meanwhile, crude oil reached session highs, and European natural gas prices climbed to a two-year peak due to colder temperatures and tight storage. Looking Ahead Key upcoming data releases include Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, U.S. CPI data, Chinese M2 Money Supply, and U.S. retail sales. Additionally, multiple central bank officials are scheduled to speak throughout the week, providing further insights into monetary policy direction. Macro Update: Trade War 2.0 and Tariff Shifts Impact Markets. The latest reciprocal tariff announcements from Trump, in our view, presents a strategic opportunity for the U.S. This approach enables negotiations for lower tariffs on U.S. exports with individual trading partners, fostering a more flexible and targeted trade policy. This shift aligns more with global trade integration and could provide a more balanced framework for U.S. exporters. Gold continues to exhibit renewed strength as a safe-haven asset, marking fresh all-time highs amid market uncertainty. Meanwhile, Bitcoin—often referred to as "digital gold"—has lagged behind, struggling in a climate of risk-off sentiment. However, it remains within its post-election trading range, signaling resilience despite broader market volatility. At the fiscal level, U.S. House Republican leaders are proposing federal spending cuts ranging between $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion, according to Punchbowl sources. These cuts are expected to focus heavily on Medicaid spending. However, the effectiveness of government spending adjustments remains in question—whether such measures will enhance efficiency or simply reduce overall spending is yet to be seen. In addition, extending President Trump’s tax proposals could cut revenue by $5-11T over a decade, potentially pushing U.S. debt to 132-149% of GDP by 2035. Senate Republicans propose $342B in border and defense spending, with offsetting cuts. Meanwhile, Musk’s DOGE Service aims to automate government functions, reduce the federal workforce, and slash spending. Bitcoin Big Picture: Bitcoin has been consolidating after making new all time highs post US elections. Although price action and consolidation points towards further bullishness. We remain cautious and prepared for any of the scenarios that may happen as a result of many different factors influencing risk assets and market sentiment. To better manage your exposure to Bitcoin, consider using CME’s Micro Bitcoin and Bitcoin Friday Futures . Additionally, you can take part in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, allowing you to showcase your Micro Bitcoin trading skills in The Leap —risk-free. Key Levels to Watch Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. Yearly Hi: 110,920 mCVAH: 104,400 Dec 2024 mid range: 101,570 Jan 2025 mid range: 100,610 mCVPOC: 98,075 mCVAL: 93,730 Key Bull Support: 92,505 - 90,000 Scenario 1: Further chop and acceptance In this scenario, we may see price action remain range bound. Traders look for clarity on how policy may affect market sentiment before further committing capital. Scenario 2: New ATHs Price attempts to create new ATHs which marks a significant move. Although bitcoin created new all time highs in January 2025, these were rejected and price action pointed towards market top. Scenario 3: Souring market sentiment Scenario 2 and 3 requires remaining alert to all developments as fundamental and macro news is turning ever so significant in driving short-term volatility and price action. Any further hint towards tighter monetary policy and tighter fiscal policy may send BTC prices lower very quickly.
CME:BTC1!
by EdgeClear
Analyzing Our Crude Oil Trade Plan & Key LevelsNYMEX:CL1! This is our first blog recapping the trade plan from the prior week. In this blog, traders can take a sneak peek into why we choose and plot the levels we do on our charts. However, these are simply our thoughts and ideas on the market—we do not know what will happen. You should carefully consider whether this approach aligns with your own trading strategy and risk tolerance before making any decisions. Do you struggle with analysis paralysis in your trading? Don’t worry—we will help you develop a process that you can customize and apply to your own market approach. Markets by nature have randomness and uncertainty built in. Markets move based on the collective psyche of the participants. These footprints left behind by the collective participants analyzed through volume profiling and multiple time frames is what provides us with our selected support and resistance zones. To help you better understand our chart setup, here’s how we define key zones and indicators: On our charts, we use color-coded zones to highlight key market levels: Green zones indicate bull support areas. Red zones represent bearish support areas. Blue zones act as neutral zones but serve as important inflection points. The Line in the Sand (LIS) is a crucial reference point: A single LIS can be used to validate both long and short trade ideas. Alternatively, there may be separate LIS levels—one confirming long trades above it and another confirming short trades below it. Some other terms that you will commonly find in our blogs are: VPOC (Volume Point of Control): The price level with the highest traded volume within a given volume profile. VAH (Value Area High): The upper boundary of the value area, typically representing the +1 standard deviation level in the volume distribution. VAL (Value Area Low): The lower boundary of the value area, typically representing the -1 standard deviation level in the volume distribution. Value Area: The range where approximately 70% of the total traded volume occurs, falling within one standard deviation of the distribution. Important and significant levels on our charts are marked. You can see on the crude oil chart, that we consider mid ranges of defined year, quarter, month, week as significant areas of interest and reaction by market participants. We also give importance to HVN (High Volume Nodes) and LVN (Low Volume Nodes) and how price usually reacts to these visible distributions of high and low volumes on the volume profile. Our analysis begins with four key questions that guide our market perspective and decision-making process: What has the market done? What is it trying to do? How good of a job is it doing? What is more likely to happen from here? These questions are not intended to decipher the reasons behind market movements or predict outcomes based on personal bias. Instead, they provide a structured framework using Auction Market Theory, Volume Profile, and market-generated significant levels to develop a trade plan—whether for the day or the week. This trade plan does not dictate specific trades to take; rather, it serves as a roadmap, outlining the key areas where we may want to engage with the market. To illustrate the importance of structured market analysis and preparation, let's review how our recent crude oil trade plans have played out: Week of January 27, 2025 – Crude Oil Plan Recap : The initial trade plan played out, but a pullback occurred. Buyers stepped in, pushing prices back toward the Blue zone (also the LIS for longs and shorts). Long positions were only valid after confirming a reclaim of the January 2025 mid-range. Crude oil then moved sharply toward our key bull support zone before rebounding higher. This completed the trade plan scenario outlined in red. Week of January 13, 2025 – Key Takeaways : We identified the start of bullish momentum in crude oil following a long Q4 2024 consolidation. Two short trade scenarios were outlined, with the first playing out as expected. Reviewing past trade plans helps traders develop a structured market preparation process. This analysis was featured in the Editor’s Pick, mapping out key levels and our thought process. As we mentioned earlier, we do not have a crystal ball but we do have insights when planning for the week. If you are incorporating this weekly plan, please also monitor and be ready to adjust with new information that is provided on the hard right edge. If you click the play button on most of our trade plans and just consider that week’s price movement, you may notice that our plans have thoughts and efforts put in them.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
ES Trade Idea: Key Levels and Strategies Amid Macro UncertaintyCME_MINI:ES1! ES futures opened with a gap down on Sunday. With numerous macro headlines, President Donald Trump’s comments on the Fed’s decision last week, and ongoing trade war tariffs, traders may struggle to distinguish what truly matters for the markets from the noise. In our opinion, do not let macro headlines cloud your judgement. Have a trade plan and be ready to adjust with market conditions and volatility. One way to mitigate risk is by utilizing micro CME contracts , allowing for more precise risk management during volatile market conditions. Additionally, you can participate in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, giving you the opportunity to test your skills in The Leap without risking real money. Remember, it's NFP week, and several other key economic data releases are also on the calendar. In our view, it is important to zoom out and reduce key levels on your charts to ones that are significant. Key Levels: Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. (mcVAH) micro composite value area high: 6,134.25 Key LIS/Yearly Open: 5,949.25 (mcVAL) micro composite value area low: 5,914.25 (CVAH) Composite Value Area High: 5,924 Scenario 1: Long above Key LIS Our key LIS is still Yearly open as it was discussed in last week’s idea. We are looking for long trade setups at this level. Scenario 2: Short below Key LIS If the price moves lower and holds below a key level, we will look for short trade setups targeting our green support zones on the chart from mcVAL and CVAH confluence.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by EdgeClear
Is This Sell-Off Another "Buy the Dip" Opportunity?Macro Update Index futures sold off during overnight trading as market sentiment turned risk-off. Newswires reported that, after Colombia denied entry to two U.S. deportation aircraft, President Trump announced emergency tariffs of 25% on all Colombian imports, with plans to increase them to 50% next week. Additionally, The Wall Street Journal noted growing support among President Trump's advisors to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday to initiate negotiations. Meanwhile, Chinese startup DeepSeek is challenging U.S. dominance in the AI sector by introducing a low-cost model rivaling OpenAI's o1. This development may intensify geopolitical and economic tensions. Adding to the unease, Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs missed expectations. Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1, below the forecast of 50.1. Markets in China and most of Asia will remain closed starting Tuesday for the Lunar New Year holiday, which could lead to lower regional liquidity. Looking ahead, the week features several high-impact events: Wednesday, January 29: Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the first FOMC press conference of 2025. Bank of Canada interest rate decision. Thursday, January 30th: ECB interest rate decision Preliminary Q4 GDP data (QoQ). Friday, January 31st: Core PCE Price Index (Dec). ES Futures Update This week is packed with critical data releases, and macroeconomic developments are having a stronger influence on short-term price fluctuations. It’s an important time to step back, zoom out, and identify key levels of interest to engage with the market. Despite the overnight sell-off and heightened volatility, the auction process remains orderly. Managing risk is paramount, as losses are an inherent part of trading. Key Observations: ES futures bounced off the yearly open in overnight trading, marking it as our critical Line in the Sand (LIS). If prices stay above the LIS, markets are likely to consolidate further this week, with FOMC and other data releases determining the next move. A break below the yearly open could open the door to short trade opportunities targeting the support zones identified on the chart. Scenario 1: Wait and See Allow the market to digest the sell-off. Look for long setups from the LIS. Key events like the FOMC decision will likely influence market direction, but unexpected negative news could overshadow these data releases. Scenario 2: Sustained Sell-Off If a catalyst triggers further downside, the market may test support levels near 5,750 and 5,800. Below the LIS, short setups may be viable if supported by news or price action that aligns with a bearish trade thesis. For traders looking to manage risk more effectively, consider using Micro E-mini S&P 500 contracts , which are 1/10th the size of standard ES contracts. This week’s data releases, geopolitical developments, and tariff announcements are likely to shape market sentiment. Stay cautious and adapt to new information as it unfolds. Risk management remains the cornerstone of success in volatile markets. Not confident to incorporate these into your trading plan? Why not incorporate our trade ideas to your trade plan in TradingView and CME’s paper trading competition; “The Leap”.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
2
ES Futures Trade Idea - Trump Inauguration MLK weekMacroeconomic News: US markets were closed yesterday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. ES, NQ and YM futures saw mild gains yesterday, RTY futures outperformed. As the 47th president of the United States, Donald Trump took the oath of office promising to protect the border, address inflation, and restructure trade policies. In addition to withdrawing from the Paris Climate Treaty and signing orders to cancel 78 Biden-era acts, he also started energy production reforms, such as drilling for oil in the Arctic. Trump discussed agreements over TikTok ownership, threatened global tariffs, and suggested imposing duties on the EU, Canada, and Mexico. He urged a speedy conclusion to the conflict in Ukraine and gave top priority to evaluating China's adherence to trade agreements. Trump stopped importing oil from Venezuela, emphasized energy independence, and lifted sanctions on Israeli settlers. The goal of bold measures is to put American workers and security first. Following yesterday's strong selling pressure, which was brought on by the announcement that President Trump would not impose tariffs on the first day of his presidency, the dollar is now showing signs of recovery. Nevertheless, Trump's statement that he is considering 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and believes they would be implemented on February 1st shattered trade confidence overnight. In our opinion, buy the rumor-sell the fact, sell the rumor-buy the fact, will likely be a key theme during Trump’s presidential term. ES Futures update: As we can see in the chart above, ES futures are currently above our Line in the Sand, Yearly Open at 5,949.25. ES futures also made a higher low on Jan 13th, 2025 compared to Nov 4th, 2024 swing low. ES futures formed a bull flag after the Dec 18th, 2024 FOMC announcement. Price has now broken out of the bull flag channel. Key Levels to Watch Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. Jan 6th Weekly Hi: 6,068.25 Jan 13th Weekly Hi: 6,051.50 Yearly Open | LIS (Line in Sand): 5,949.25 Resistance R1: 6,105 - 6,115 Resistance R2: 6,145 - 6,155 All time highs: 6,184.50 Scenario 1: Breakout continuation Price has broken out of bull flag formation from the Dec 18th, 2024 FOMC announcement. Break above current area of consolidation marked in Blue zone forming the area between Jan 6th and Jan 13th Weekly Highs. Price heads towards R1, R2 and R3 targets. Scenario 2: Further consolidation Price further consolidates this week awaiting a catalyst to trend higher next week. Strong earnings season propels US futures and stocks higher. We encourage you to monitor these levels closely and incorporate them into your trade planning. Share your thoughts or insights on these key levels in the comments below.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by EdgeClear
BTC CMEAfter touching the weekly BISI, the price dropped behind the stops in the shorts, the daily BIs became an inversion and gave support to the price without pushing it down. If this is a Екгьз rally, we will see how the price will react within 4 hours, a selling pattern is formed, there is inefficiency, a block of refusal is possible, which can lower the price to 0.5 range Will this move be to fill the weekly BISI again or will it continue to send orders up? Now those who entered long have opened positions, I think the price will follow their stops
CME:BTC1!Short
by Jojo2075
BTC CME Short Model and Long ModelNow Bitcoin is in the Premium zone, where it is better to consider short positions for a short-term movement to the Discount zone. If the Market Maker goes for equal lows, which is a good exit point, or if the Market Maker goes long, then the exact entry will be better in the Discount zone, return to where the accumulation was, and see what candles will be formed at this level. If we look at TOTAL 1 2 3, we will see that these assets are also in the Premium zone, which can also be good support for short positions.
CME:BTC1!
by Jojo2075