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Bitcoin futures disruption - a parabolic exit mirrorBTC on the daily (D) macro logarithmic with parabolic trend What we saw in the most recent move was an unprecedented bullish exit move of +45% out of a parabolic trend ! =BUYTHENEWS - CME/CBOE futures With the also unprecedented first time implementation of futures into crypto market itself it is entirely possible we could see a -45% mirror of this move to the downside =SELLTHENEWS And this: While keeping the major parabolic trend further intact (parabolic violation equalized) A significant down move at all receives credence on the futures' own -and totally new to crypto market- attribute of enabling REAL shorts over the underlying asset
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by tdvuser177
BTC: penance and penantsGiven last night's pullback, and Asia's refusal to save it, we have a penant. BTC's favorite formation. I like to draw a horizontal at the mid point of its apex, then redraw the trend running up the spine of it, as a continuation of trend. I am drawing a pessimistic penant, assuming we're at a dip. It should hold like this, pure misery for days. Interesting how it will likely take until the CME future open to correct and resend the trend line. Somebody wants to pick up lots of discounted BTC beforehand... The CME open will simply mean plenty of new promises to buy it, and lots of corresponding volume. A lot of people are taking profits and acquiring lots of cheap BTC as we speak, it's just professionals in the markets work. I like 20K by mid month... not dreaming disclaimer This document is for information and illustrative purposes only. It is not, and should not be regarded as “investment advice” or as a “recommendation” regarding a course of action, including without limitation as those terms are used in any applicable law or regulation
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by mortonpeak
BTC in 12,600–15,500 USD by CME adoption (December 11th)Trend predictions based on current market conditions as of November 29th. Using a logarithmic y-axis scale. Strong growth channel #2 (light green parallel channel) indicates that the price of bitcoin will be in the range of 12,600–15,500 USD by December 10th–11th right around the time of adoption into bitcoin futures trading on the CME. The average price of that range falls on ~14,000 USD for nearing that date. This is assuming no massive sell offs, and following the current strong bullish market growth channel. Growth channel #1 as the baseline trend that is overlaid (darker green channel) suggests a similar maximum price range, around 13,000 USD, and an absolute minimum dip around 8,000 USD. This is a counter prediction to the assumption above, because this suggests that a big sell off is actually possible, though from what I've seen is unlikely. It would likely rebound shortly after anyway back to the >10k range after the CME adoption. In short, this gives predictions for the price of bitcoin on December 10th-11th at between 12,600 and 15,500 USD. With a broader range of 8,000 to 15,500 at 95% confidence.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by copa1079
Trapped traders - how to use the commitments of traders report Before reading this I want people to understand that this kind of trade doesn't always work (NO TRADING SYSTEM DOES) so if this single trade doesn't work, don't lose confidence in the technique - it has served me extremely well and I have used it many times before. Both for USDJPY (2 ideas) and USDCAD (1 idea) - you can find these ideas on my page. Links to those ideas (UCAD was positioning hugely long) You can find the commitments of traders report on this page (www.cmegroup.com) every Friday. It reflects the current positions of forex futures traders in Chicago's Mercantile Exchange on the Tuesday of that week. You want to see the "leveraged" positions - these are CTAs and hedge funds - the people like you and me that are speculating on these prices with the objective of making returns; usually with leverage. This is last Friday's report for AUDUSD. prnt.sc Note how Long (blue) positions have been rising. On 18/7 the net position was 45k LONG, on 8/8 the net position is 75k LONG. So between these two dates, we know that 30,000 long positions were opened. The price on 18/7 was 0.7916 and on 8/8 it was 0.7911. Those positions were therefore opened above 0.7900. The current price is 0.7820 and that means that all of those positions are experiencing a draw down of AT LEAST 80 pips (>1%). They are trapped traders. If price continues to move down, at some point those people are going to get out of those longs because the draw down will be too much for them to take. Getting out of a long = going short => price moving down = move people have to exit their longs = going short => price moving down etc. So just go short and you can benefit from this.
Education
by TraderVoe
1
Short term target 46, upsloping trend lineBroke out of uptrend with high volume. CFTC showed specs were long, so there is plenty of room to the downside. Spreads have been weak and option volatility was low before breakout. As it broke to the downside, longs scrambled to protect with an downside puts and panic left option vol to increase by over 6 points. On the downside, i am looking into the trendline around 46ish. I would expect a breather there. if it holds, great, but production in the US is up. Only an agreement between Russia and the OPEc on production cuts could truly turn this around.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by mjhillpp
2
Crude target of 52 almost achievedCrude is nearing the target of 52 after the breakout of the triangle after the OPEC meeting a couple weeks ago. RSI and Stochastik are now very much overbought and even generated some sell signals. Also, as of now, there is a divergence in stochastik and RSI indicating the market is due for a correction sideways or lower. Without any fundamental news a correction is imminent. However this correction might well be sideways. Overall physical trading volume has slowed according to my sources after the panic buying spree shortly following the OPEC meeting. Overall we are in an uptrend, and I would expect we ll at least test the highs made earlier this year around 52. Some light call spread selling might be good, but IMHO being conservative is the right play. No buying of downside options as that premium will just decay.
TVC:USOIL
by mjhillpp
OPEC meeting, breakout of triangleMarket has been narrowing awaiting the OPEC meeting. Trading volume has declined going into tighter trading ranges (red triangle). This is a great example for a symmetric triangle. Breakout direction to be determined. Also, the greater picture shows a slowing uptrend leading into a very long term triangle. Patience is required. My bias would be leading to the downside breakout following the OPEC meeting, but I will wait and see. Either way once braking out I am looking into getting into some short put or call spreads depending on direction
TVC:USOIL
by mjhillpp
1
Lookign to test 200 MA and trend belowLooking to test 200 day MA and upsloping trend line in blue for the shorter term. Overall the market is still in a buy territory, but a test of the 200 day MA might be likely. Weather concerns for the upcoming fall and winter are not an issue yet. Physical demand as my sources tell me has been more than subdued over the sommer after the end user buying activity in the spring. Longer term the market seems to form a triangle and is looking for guidance. but looks heavy in the short term. Normally at the blue support line I would recommend selling put spreads or puts, but I am concerned with overall pressure hence I am staying out of it. Maybe some small positions in selling put spreads might be good, but with limited risk IMHO
TVC:USOIL
by mjhillpp
Rising wedge, but for now running into supportAs we see some support is coming in from our longer term trend channel as well as the lower Bbands. So far the last three weeks have provided with the expected sideways action once reaching 50. Selling calls has been the right strategy so far (51, 52 and 53 calls). At this support I am covering my short calls, but will hold of selling any put spreads to see how the FOMC decision plays out. I would not be surprised to see no rate hike and crude test some downside targets. For now, neutral, but getting ready to sell some downside put spreads once we breach the support (if we do)
NYMEX:CL1!
by mjhillpp