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A break of local lows on BTC CME I am looking for next leg downA break of local lows on #BTC I am looking for next leg down 13170 - then lower to fill all CME Futures gaps Big move incoming on the pinch of downtrend mid/linear regression, fib & daily 20ema Get above & hold that 3day 20ema & I would look to pivot _________________________________________________________ This content is for informational, educational and entertainment purposes only. This is not in any way, shape or form financial or trading advice. Good luck, happy trading and stay chill, 2degreez
CME:BTC1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn7216011
Another leg up for crude oil? To answer this question, we need to look at the following: 1) US Strategic Petroleum Reserve The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is currently at its lowest level since 1984, while the absolute level is worrisome, the speed of the drawdown on the reserve over the past year is more concerning. In an effort to combat rising prices and possibly secure the midterm elections, President Biden has continually announced release from the reserve, depleting close to a third of the reserve since the start of 2022. If and when this extra supply is cut off, oil prices will likely head higher. 2) OPEC Production Cuts With the OPEC announcement to cut production by 2 million barrels per day, the world is yet under more energy supply stress. While the cut is only about 2% of global supply, it does signify a shift in stance from OPEC, clashing with the West as the US condemns OPEC’s actions. With the next OPEC+ meeting taking place in December, we will closely monitor if further production tightening continues. 3) Crude Oil and DXY As Crude Oil is quoted in USD, the dollar’s performance has a great impact on oil prices. The chart above shows the dollar (inverted) against Crude Oil. The 2 generally move together, up until the start of 2022, when dollar strengthened significantly alongside oil. As this relationship stretches further away from the normal, we fear a ‘snap’ may occur should a pivot in the Fed’s policies occur. That would greatly weaken the USD, and push oil prices significantly higher. 4) China’s turn With China still essentially closed from the rest of the world, any shift towards opening the Chinese economy could awaken the world’s 2nd largest consumer of oil. Looking at the Crude Oil Chart, we see a continued uptrend since the negative oil prices fiasco in May 2022. With a stalled attempt to break lower in September, and prices now back in line with the uptrend, we could potentially see higher oil prices from here. We also note the 90$ handle as a significant level, where 2 previous attempts to break past were rejected. But with a clear and decisive break past the 90$ mark, are the bulls in control now? In our opinion, crude oil is like the stone on a slingshot, stretched further and further back by multiple macro factors. If any were to snap, oil could be slingshot higher… Entry at 92.25, stops at 85. Target at 100. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify any trading set-ups in real-time and react accordingly. To find out more, visit www.tradingview.com under the CME Group exchange to view the real-time data plans available. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by inspirante
11
Copper’s many tangosIn the following charts below, we will highlight why copper looks interesting to us right now. Firstly, the Copper Outright prices (orange) vs the Calendar spread (black). Copper calendar spread tend to move in-line with its outright prices, until major turning points, when the calendar spread leads the outright price movement. In February 2022, we observed the copper calendar spread making a significant move lower, with the outright prices following suit in April. With the calendar spread making a significant move higher now, is this what they call déjà vu? Secondly, copper prices and the Chinese Yuan have a relatively high correlation as China is the world’s largest buyer of the metal, and by a significant margin. The recent weakness in the Yuan has led copper prices lower, but with the CNYUSD pair seemingly recovering now, could some strength in the Yuan lead the copper rally? Thirdly, the Gold/Copper ratio generally trades within a pretty defined range, with out-of-range moves happening during major market events. The ratio’s recent high can be attributed to copper weakness compared with gold. With signs of the ratio retracing off the upper range, have we marked the end of this move? And is it time for copper to gain some ground against gold? Looking at the price charts, we see copper trading near the significant long-term support level of 3.3. Previous attempts to break this support in July and September were both rejected. On a shorter timeframe, we see a descending wedge pattern forming, which is generally considered a reversal pattern. The same setup is also observed on the Micro Copper contract, which offers greater flexibility and precision in execution. Copper’s interesting relationships with major currencies and commodities, allow us to analyze it from multiple angles. With some relationships at major inflection points now, we lean bullish on copper. Entry at 3.44, stop at 3.1335. Target at 3.8320 and 4.0000 . If you’re keen on understanding more about Copper and its many relationships, do check out our previous research piece: www.cmegroup.com The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by inspirante
11
What would you have on a date night? Chicken or steak? We’re going to go out on a limb here and say your date night budgets and recessionary risk are likely inversely correlated! As recessionary risk starts to weigh on investors’ minds, purse strings for date nights are likely to be tightened, which spells trouble for the date night classic, wine & steak pair. Cattle Futures have joined the broad market selloff over the past few days as investors remain on edge. This recent move lower has confirmed a break below the neckline support for a double top pattern observed on a shorter timeframe, which is noted as a bearish reversal pattern. On a longer timeframe, the decline has also broken the 4-month long uptrend for Live Cattle. With not much in the way of support, it’s quite possible to see another leg lower, similar to the pattern we observed in May 2022 where prices corrected around 4.5% once the uptrend was broken. Using this as a reference, the 143 range marks the next potential stop for live cattle prices if we were to extrapolate a 4.5% decline from the breakout point. The broken uptrend followed by the confirmation of the double top pattern spells trouble for live cattle prices. As such, we lean bearish on live cattle futures and will likely swap the date night steak for perhaps chicken… Entry at 148.550, stop at 150.325. Target at 144.850 and 143.075. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CME:LEZ2022Short
by inspirante
8
Is the GBP on the edge of a cliff?As the British Pound approaches a major support level of 1.4000, we think it is akin to peering over the edge of a cliff. With one of the worst headline inflation rates in the developed markets, crippling energy bills, and a newly elected government, the Bank of England (BOE) is in a place few would want to be in. As the next policy meeting date nears, the central bank is likely to raise rates. But by how much? Too little, and inflation will remain a key issue weighing on the currency’s attractiveness compared to the USD. Too much, and consumers will be crushed with the already astronomical energy bills and rising loan re-payment, likely pushing the UK further into stagflation, something that central banks try to avoid. Either way, pound traders are likely to be disappointed. And we have not even begun to mention the effects the energy bill cap might have on longer-run inflation. The technical setup proves more interesting as the current price lies right on the 1.4000 level, a major support level, only ever breached once in 1984 and retested once in 2020. We think a clear break of this will likely lead the pound to fall harder as traders ride the downward momentum. On a shorter timeframe, the pair is arguably trading in a descending channel. As current prices teeter on the lower channel band, a breakout at the downside could spell trouble, sending the pair lower. There seems to be little in the way to slow the move lower for the GBPUSD pair as both macro headwinds and technical ones beat down the Pound lower against the USD. With the US Federal Reserve meeting on the 21st and Bank of England meeting on the 22nd of September, we expect higher volatility over the next few days, a snap lower could drive momentum traders to further extend the downside move. Entry at 1.1450, stop at 1.17400. Target at 1.08000 and 1.06150. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CME:6B1!Short
by inspirante
20
Gold amid rising yields and dollar strengtheningSince we last covered gold , most of our views have played out, as real yields rose and dollar strengthened significantly. As central banks remain committed to fighting the greatest inflation seen in decades, we see continued headwind for the yellow metal. Going back to our real-yield and dollar analysis framework, we see 2 key points. Firstly, real yields have increased significantly as US Interest rates rise at unprecedented levels due to back-to-back rate hikes. Central bankers have continued to pre-empt the markets on the rates hiking path, and we see no reason for the US Federal Reserve to change its stance anytime soon. Thus, we think that real rates are likely to continue upwards. Secondly, the dollar is now trading at a 20-year high. With no major resistance until the 120 level, we see a clear path upwards as the backdrop of higher yield continues to favor the dollar. Looking at the charts we see a potential double top chart pattern, for gold. With the first peak slightly higher than the second and current prices trading near the neckline, we think the bearish set-up is almost complete for gold and prices are likely to decline from here. Barring any surprise data points from now till the next FOMC meeting in 2 weeks’ time, it is highly likely for the Fed to continue its hiking path which will drive real rates & the dollar higher. This presents a strong headwind to gold which could tip lower if we see a clear break of the neckline. As such we think gold is caught between a rock (higher yields) and a hard place (stronger dollar). Entry at 1723, stop at 1830. Target at 1530 and 1360. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by inspirante
14
As policies continue to diverge…For readers who have been following us right from our first ever TradingView idea, you’ll recall our first ever trade idea on long USDCNH. It’s been a fun 5 months writing and sharing our thoughts with the community. Much has happened since April, but two critical things stayed the same. The US Federal Reserve remains hawkish, raising rates, while the PBoC remains dovish, continuing with its easing stance. The result? USDCNH trading beyond the 6.9 level, surpassing both our target levels. With the next Federal Reserve meeting coming up, we think it’s time to review this idea again. The CME FedWatch Tool allows us to gauge what market participants are expecting the Fed to do. The prevalent consensus seems to be that the Fed is likely to raise rates till the end of the year before holding rates at the 3.75 – 4.00 % level for the next year. On the other hand, the PBoC has continued to ease, cutting reserve requirement ratios & lowering its medium-term lending facility. With China still battling Covid via lockdowns, persistently low inflation numbers, and weak economic numbers, we see further easing on the cards from PBoC. Looking at the charts, the USDCNH pair has just completed a symmetrical triangle chart pattern. After breaking out to the upside and a brief pull-back, prices continued upwards with strong momentum. Using classical charting techniques, the target levels for the breakout can be set to the distance of the high and low of the symmetrical triangle and applied to the top of the triangle. With the target price of 7.1180, there is still upside for this trade. It seems that policy divergence will remain for these two major economies, which is likely to strengthen the USD and weaken the CNH further, driving up the USDCNH pair. Using technical to identify target levels where we will be comfortable, we think that there is room for more upside. Entry at 6.9500, stop at 6.8545. Target at 7.1180. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
CME:CNH1!Long
by inspirante
9
CME Reportables for BitcoinThe CME report for the 23rd to 30th of August came out Friday and saw interesting price action from Bitcoin. Another approximate 1k range is currently between 20.4k and 19.3k. This is similar to the previous range of 21.8k to 20.8k. As of the report, Exchanges (Dealers/Intermediaries) increased their Longs by a massive 293%. The change in Shorts being negligible could indicate an interest in holding the current lows. Asset Managers / Institutionals are still closing their long positions and adding shorts however given that the majority of their Long positions were created in November, December, and again in March they are currently very out of position and this seems to be an act to hedge themselves and mitigate risk. This can be seen as they have closed 1306 positions or 18% of their Longs since August 16th. 2 CME Gaps in Price Action still exist from November and December of 2020 at 17k and 18k. With the majority of low leverage liquidity from July and August under the current low at 19.3k a breakdown in price would occur swiftly to test lows from the beginning of July. Until this range is confirmed broken, then the Support at 19.3k and 20.4k is still valid. A word of caution; Be very careful Shorting into Support or Longing into Resistance. Wait for confirmation of range break and assume it is a fakeout until it is confirmed as a breakout.
CME:BTC1!
by TrendmasterOfficial
🤖 #BTCLIVE - 10.08 - #IDEA 🤖🤖 #BTCLIVE - 10.08 - #IDEA 🤖 Snapshot: Short-Term 40:60- Bullish:Bearish Long-Term 70:30 - Bullish:Bearish Technical Analysis: The bullish scenario is to break the local resistance at 23.5k with volume with a short term target of 23.4k and longer term target of $27k where the CME gap and top of the range is sat, breaking through will invalidate the bear flag pattern - this will be heavily predicated on the CPI announcement today The bearish scenario is to break the local support at 22.6k with volume and the path to $22k will be very likely at the bottom of the long term range. Breaking down will confirm a long term bear flag and a realistic longer term target of $17.5k Bullish Factors: + Bullish Divergence Wave & RSI + Contrarian Rejection Signal + 20 DEMA Support + Bullish CME Gap + RSI & Wave Oversold + Wave Dip Buy Signal + CPI Announcement + aSOPR turned bullish + Active Addresses turned bullish Bearish Factors: - TD7 - Challenging Resistance - Flipped 50DEMA - Flipped Local Support - Short-Term Overbought - Lower Low, Lower High - Tornado Cash - CPI Announcement - Further Celsius Investigations - Transfer Volume turned bearish - Funding Rate turned bearish Key News: + $100K #Bitcoin could be a matter of time, says Bloomberg Intelligence - #Binance will disable off-chain transfers to WazirX on August 11th. - U.S Treasury has blacklisted 'crypto mixer' Tornado Cash. home.treasury.gov - Singapore-Based Hodlnaut Halts Withdrawals Citing ‘Market Conditions’ beincrypto.com / CPI Announcement Approximate Gauge: CPI YoY: <8.7 Bullish 8.7-9.1 Neutral probably slightly bearish 9.1> Bearish Core CPI YoY <5.9 Bullish 5.9-6.1 Neutral 6.1> Bearish Metrics: Exchange + Exchange Reserve - As the exchange reserve continues to fall, it indicates lower selling pressure. - Exchange Netflow Total - Net deposits on exchanges are high compared to the 7-day average. Higher deposits can be interpreted as higher selling pressure. Miners / Miners' Position Index ( MPI ) - Miners' are selling holdings in a moderate range compared to its one-year average. / Puell Multiple -Miner's revenue is in a moderate range, compared to its one-year average. On-Chain + aSOPR - More investors are selling at a loss. In the middle of a bear market, it can indicate a market bottom. + Binary CDD - Long term holders' movement in the last 7days were lower than the average. They have a motive to hold their coins + Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) -Investors are in a Fear phase where they are currently with unrealized profits that are slightly more than losses. - Transfer Volume - The total number of coins transferred has decreased by -24.00% compared to yesterday. + Active Addresses - The total number of active wallets used to send and receive coins has increased by 22.00% compared to yesterday. + Transactions - The total number of transactions has increased by 8.00% compared to yesterday. Sentiment + Coinbase Premium - US investors' buying pressure is relatively strong in Coinbase. - Korea Premium -Korean retail investors' buying pressure is relatively strong. - Fund Premium - Investors in funds and trusts including Grayscale have relatively weak buying sentiment. Derivatives - Funding Rate - Short position traders are dominant and are willing to pay long traders. - Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Selling sentiment is dominant in the derivatives market. More sell orders are filled by takers. / Open Interest - As OI increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility , and attention are coming into the derivative market. The increasing trend in OI could support the current ongoing price trend. - Liquidation - 33137829.14 of long positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
by Kryptochristian
2
Is the selloff over?We wouldn’t blame you if you mistook the lumber price chart with a cryptocurrency. Down more than 70% from its peak in May 2021, lumber’s had astonishing volatility over the past few years. On a longer-term chart, the 460 handle represents a very long-term support/resistance level. With current Lumber prices just shy of this major support level of 460, could we see a breakout higher? Previous 2 attempts to break this level were rejected sharply and a huge rally ensued. Additionally, current RSI readings indicate oversold levels which have been useful in picking the past few bottoms. Overall, we think that lumber could be primed for a move up as it edges closer to the major long-term support level. Entry at 475, stops at 435. Target at 630. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
LLong
by inspirante
⚡️ #BTCLIVE - 02/08 ⚡️⚡️ #BTCLIVE - 02/08 ⚡️ 70:30 Bearish:Bullish At the start of the day I would have been more split in the decision between bull:bear sentiment. Although with the announcement of the WBTC and WETH hacks along with Pelosi visiting Taiwan that may come to nothing - but with everybody already so on edge I feel this will knock the markets on a wider scale at least on the short term. With so little information it is easier to assume the worst. Bearish Scenario Breaking down below the 20DEMA at approx. 22.5k will likely see a bigger drop to the lower long term range at about 21.3k - where it will be make or break as breaking down can see a longer term bear flag form and then it will be blood on the streets again with sub $20k back on the cards Bullish scenario With a new smaller CME gap set up at 23.7k and the weekly pivot filled along with a potential bounce off the 20DEMA we can see this scenario play out although it is likely we will need to bullish news to fuel this which there really isnt atm. If we do break up and break out of the range at $25k onwards then the higher CME gap at $27.3k is the target here. Volume is descending and we are consolidating in the short term right now so the next move is going to be quite big and fast
by Kryptochristian
1
Short the Hog Margin If You Expect Lower Pork PriceCME:HE1! CBOT:ZC1! CBOT:ZM1! On August 1st, USDA Daily Hog and Pork Report shows that benchmark Iowa Carcass Base Price averages $128/cwt. This is a 15% increase year-over-year, and a whopping 70% higher than the five-year average of $75. Is pork still affordable? Meanwhile in the futures market, while August Lean Hog contract (HEQ2) is quoted at $120.50/cwt, October (HEV2) is sharply lower at $97, and December (HEZ2) is even lower at $87.80. Do we expect pork price to fall a few months down the road? Let’s find out what moves pork price. We start with hog production. It consists of five phases: 1. Farrow-to-wean 2. Feeder pig 3. Finishing 4. Breeding stock 5. Farrow-to-finish Pork price fluctuates following a cobweb pattern due to production lags and adaptive expectations, according to Cambridge economist Nicholas Kaldor. When prices are higher, it draws more investments. However, due to breeding time, there is lapse in the cycle. Eventually, market becomes saturated, leading to a decline in prices. Production is thus decreased. Again, this leads to increased demand and prices. The Hog Cycle repeats, producing a supply-demand graph resembling a cobweb. Hog farmers make business decisions based on their expectations of production profit, which is called Hog Crush Margin . It is defined by the value of lean hog (LH) less the cost of weaned pig (WP), corn (C) and soybean meal (SBM). Below is a sample formula. HCM = 2 x LH - WP - 10 x C -.075 x SBM In futures market, traders could replicate the economic hog crush margin with a Hog Feeding Spread involving CME lean hog (HE), CBOT Corn (ZC) and CBOT Soybean Meal (ZM). There is no futures contract for weaned pig (piglet). The size of relevant futures contracts: HE, 40,000 lbs.; ZC, 5,000 bushels; and ZM, 100 short tons. A typical hog feeding spread is 7:3:1, which may be expressed as: Hog Feeding Spread = 7 x HE – 3 x ZC – 1 x ZM If you expect hog margin to grow, Long the feeding spread: Buy lean hog, sell corn and soybean meal. For a shrinking margin, Short the spread: Sell hog, buy corn and meal. According to Chicago-based consultancy CIH, hog margin for July 1st-15th was $16.74. Margins surged over the first half of July as hog futures rallied while projected feed costs mostly trended sideways during this period. I expect a narrower hog crush margin going into 2023. It may likely turn negative. My theory : On the one hand, corn and soybean meal prices may fall but stay elevated. Russia-Ukraine conflict, bad weather and supply chain bottleneck present real risk for global food supply shortage. On the other hand, pork price could fall faster than feed ingredients. The combined effect is a narrowing hog crush margin. Several factors are at work: Firstly, the hog cycle. Higher price this year will induce more production next year, eventually lowering price. Secondly, with hyperinflation and a pending recession, we should expect substitution effect. Consumer would choose lower-priced protein over pork, reducing pork demand. Finally, China is the wild card. China is the world's largest pork producer. In 2018, it produced 54 million tons (MT) of pork, accounting for 45% of global pork production. With the outbreak of African Swine Fever starting in August 2018, it is estimated that half of China’s hog stock was wiped out over the next year. Pork production in 2019 was 42.55 MT, down 21%. To make up for the shortfall in domestic supply, China began buying pork in the global market in a big way. Frozen pork import grew from 1.19 MT in 2018, to 2.11 MT in 2019 (+75%), and 4.39 MT in 2020 (+108%), which took up half of global pork trades that year. CME lean hog rallied 60% in 2019. More buying from China means more pork demand in Americas and Europe. Global pork price and pork futures price both went up as a result. However, the party did not last long. China’s large hog firms aggressively racked up production capacity with government support. Muyang Group SZSE:002714 , the largest hog producer in the world, grew sales from 9 million hogs in 2019, to 18 million in 2020 (+100%), and 40 million in 2021 (+120%). It is on track to produce 55-60 million hogs this year (+38%~+50%). With domestic production largely recovered, China reduced pork import to 3.71 MT in 2021, down 15%. For the first six months in 2022, China imported only 810,000 tons, down 65% from the same period in 2021. China’s pork price has doubled from its February low. Again, with the Hog Cycle at work, there will be an oversupply of pork next year, further reducing the need for import. We could examine corn price trend further. Corn generally traded in the range of $3 to $4.50 per bushel but shot up to $7 in May 2021. It broke record again this year at $8 per bushel in April. I expect the corn price to fall but stay elevated from previous-year level. Soybean Meal is 50% higher than two years ago. Again, I expect it to fall but stay higher than pre-2020 level. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME:HE1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
1
Commitment of Traders Report from 19 to 26 July The CME report from Tuesday the 26th of July to Tuesday the 19th of July came out The reportable figures from the Dealers/Intermediaers (Exchanges/Brokers) and the Asset Managers/Insitutionals show negligible increases in Longs/Shorts BUT The SPREAD increase is nearly a 90% increase for said Exchanges/Brokers as well as a 62% increase in spreads for Asset Managers/Institutionals A simple way of understanding Spreads: A higher (wider) spread means there is a bigger difference between bid-ask (buy-sell) prices whereas a lower (more narrow) spread means there is a smaller difference between bid-ask (buy-sell) prices tighter spreads are a sign of greater liquidity, while wider bid-ask (buy-sell) spreads occur in less liquid or highly-volatile stocks Because of this - The current upwards move seems to be less volatile than the previous down move Theory - Exchanges and Institutions bet heavily on the current low volatility upside move
CME:BTC1!
by TrendmasterOfficial
Can Interest Rate Be Traded Or Invested?How can we participate in the rise and fall of interest rate? Firstly, we need to understand the difference between interest rate and yield. Interest rates are a benchmark for borrowers whereas yield is for investors or lenders. • Interest rates are the fees charged, as a percentage from a lender for a loan. • Yield is the percentage of earnings a person receives for lending money. Both move in tandem together, meaning if yield moves higher, interest rates will follow. Discussion: • Direction of the Yield in the short-term and • Direction of the Yield in the long-term Divergence in a bull market means the bull is losing its momentum, keep a look-out for trigger points that may cause further stress to the market. Micro 10-Year Yield Futures 1/10 of 1bp = US$1 or 0.001% = US$1 3.000% to 3.050% = US$50 3.000% to 4.000% = US$1,000 Note: Micro Treasury futures are not micro-sized U.S. Treasury securities. They convey no rights of ownership, nor or they pay or accrue interest. Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
TVC:US10YEducation
by konhow
CME Gap: 2022 JulAfter 6 months absence, going to start my monthly thread on CME:BTC1! I have updated the monthly direction table for last 6 months. Even during a major bull run majority of the time CME Week was showing a weakness. However for last 6 months, CME week is showing a more of a ranging performance followed by weakness. CME Data: Trade Volume increasing while Open Interest is reducing, meaning contracts are getting closed prior to settlement. Gaps: Currently 2 major gaps are open Gap Open - 2022 May , within the price range of 34450 to 35925 Gap Open - 2022 June, within the price range of 27300 to 28945 Trades: Looking for short if price tries to get stronger prior to final settlement date.
CME:BTC1!Short
by cryptochi1986