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Cme!

⚡️ #BTCLIVE - 02/08 ⚡️⚡️ #BTCLIVE - 02/08 ⚡️ 70:30 Bearish:Bullish At the start of the day I would have been more split in the decision between bull:bear sentiment. Although with the announcement of the WBTC and WETH hacks along with Pelosi visiting Taiwan that may come to nothing - but with everybody already so on edge I feel this will knock the markets on a wider scale at least on the short term. With so little information it is easier to assume the worst. Bearish Scenario Breaking down below the 20DEMA at approx. 22.5k will likely see a bigger drop to the lower long term range at about 21.3k - where it will be make or break as breaking down can see a longer term bear flag form and then it will be blood on the streets again with sub $20k back on the cards Bullish scenario With a new smaller CME gap set up at 23.7k and the weekly pivot filled along with a potential bounce off the 20DEMA we can see this scenario play out although it is likely we will need to bullish news to fuel this which there really isnt atm. If we do break up and break out of the range at $25k onwards then the higher CME gap at $27.3k is the target here. Volume is descending and we are consolidating in the short term right now so the next move is going to be quite big and fast
by Kryptochristian
1
Short the Hog Margin If You Expect Lower Pork PriceCME:HE1! CBOT:ZC1! CBOT:ZM1! On August 1st, USDA Daily Hog and Pork Report shows that benchmark Iowa Carcass Base Price averages $128/cwt. This is a 15% increase year-over-year, and a whopping 70% higher than the five-year average of $75. Is pork still affordable? Meanwhile in the futures market, while August Lean Hog contract (HEQ2) is quoted at $120.50/cwt, October (HEV2) is sharply lower at $97, and December (HEZ2) is even lower at $87.80. Do we expect pork price to fall a few months down the road? Let’s find out what moves pork price. We start with hog production. It consists of five phases: 1. Farrow-to-wean 2. Feeder pig 3. Finishing 4. Breeding stock 5. Farrow-to-finish Pork price fluctuates following a cobweb pattern due to production lags and adaptive expectations, according to Cambridge economist Nicholas Kaldor. When prices are higher, it draws more investments. However, due to breeding time, there is lapse in the cycle. Eventually, market becomes saturated, leading to a decline in prices. Production is thus decreased. Again, this leads to increased demand and prices. The Hog Cycle repeats, producing a supply-demand graph resembling a cobweb. Hog farmers make business decisions based on their expectations of production profit, which is called Hog Crush Margin . It is defined by the value of lean hog (LH) less the cost of weaned pig (WP), corn (C) and soybean meal (SBM). Below is a sample formula. HCM = 2 x LH - WP - 10 x C -.075 x SBM In futures market, traders could replicate the economic hog crush margin with a Hog Feeding Spread involving CME lean hog (HE), CBOT Corn (ZC) and CBOT Soybean Meal (ZM). There is no futures contract for weaned pig (piglet). The size of relevant futures contracts: HE, 40,000 lbs.; ZC, 5,000 bushels; and ZM, 100 short tons. A typical hog feeding spread is 7:3:1, which may be expressed as: Hog Feeding Spread = 7 x HE – 3 x ZC – 1 x ZM If you expect hog margin to grow, Long the feeding spread: Buy lean hog, sell corn and soybean meal. For a shrinking margin, Short the spread: Sell hog, buy corn and meal. According to Chicago-based consultancy CIH, hog margin for July 1st-15th was $16.74. Margins surged over the first half of July as hog futures rallied while projected feed costs mostly trended sideways during this period. I expect a narrower hog crush margin going into 2023. It may likely turn negative. My theory : On the one hand, corn and soybean meal prices may fall but stay elevated. Russia-Ukraine conflict, bad weather and supply chain bottleneck present real risk for global food supply shortage. On the other hand, pork price could fall faster than feed ingredients. The combined effect is a narrowing hog crush margin. Several factors are at work: Firstly, the hog cycle. Higher price this year will induce more production next year, eventually lowering price. Secondly, with hyperinflation and a pending recession, we should expect substitution effect. Consumer would choose lower-priced protein over pork, reducing pork demand. Finally, China is the wild card. China is the world's largest pork producer. In 2018, it produced 54 million tons (MT) of pork, accounting for 45% of global pork production. With the outbreak of African Swine Fever starting in August 2018, it is estimated that half of China’s hog stock was wiped out over the next year. Pork production in 2019 was 42.55 MT, down 21%. To make up for the shortfall in domestic supply, China began buying pork in the global market in a big way. Frozen pork import grew from 1.19 MT in 2018, to 2.11 MT in 2019 (+75%), and 4.39 MT in 2020 (+108%), which took up half of global pork trades that year. CME lean hog rallied 60% in 2019. More buying from China means more pork demand in Americas and Europe. Global pork price and pork futures price both went up as a result. However, the party did not last long. China’s large hog firms aggressively racked up production capacity with government support. Muyang Group SZSE:002714 , the largest hog producer in the world, grew sales from 9 million hogs in 2019, to 18 million in 2020 (+100%), and 40 million in 2021 (+120%). It is on track to produce 55-60 million hogs this year (+38%~+50%). With domestic production largely recovered, China reduced pork import to 3.71 MT in 2021, down 15%. For the first six months in 2022, China imported only 810,000 tons, down 65% from the same period in 2021. China’s pork price has doubled from its February low. Again, with the Hog Cycle at work, there will be an oversupply of pork next year, further reducing the need for import. We could examine corn price trend further. Corn generally traded in the range of $3 to $4.50 per bushel but shot up to $7 in May 2021. It broke record again this year at $8 per bushel in April. I expect the corn price to fall but stay elevated from previous-year level. Soybean Meal is 50% higher than two years ago. Again, I expect it to fall but stay higher than pre-2020 level. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME:HE1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
1
Commitment of Traders Report from 19 to 26 July The CME report from Tuesday the 26th of July to Tuesday the 19th of July came out The reportable figures from the Dealers/Intermediaers (Exchanges/Brokers) and the Asset Managers/Insitutionals show negligible increases in Longs/Shorts BUT The SPREAD increase is nearly a 90% increase for said Exchanges/Brokers as well as a 62% increase in spreads for Asset Managers/Institutionals A simple way of understanding Spreads: A higher (wider) spread means there is a bigger difference between bid-ask (buy-sell) prices whereas a lower (more narrow) spread means there is a smaller difference between bid-ask (buy-sell) prices tighter spreads are a sign of greater liquidity, while wider bid-ask (buy-sell) spreads occur in less liquid or highly-volatile stocks Because of this - The current upwards move seems to be less volatile than the previous down move Theory - Exchanges and Institutions bet heavily on the current low volatility upside move
CME:BTC1!
by TrendmasterOfficial
Can Interest Rate Be Traded Or Invested?How can we participate in the rise and fall of interest rate? Firstly, we need to understand the difference between interest rate and yield. Interest rates are a benchmark for borrowers whereas yield is for investors or lenders. • Interest rates are the fees charged, as a percentage from a lender for a loan. • Yield is the percentage of earnings a person receives for lending money. Both move in tandem together, meaning if yield moves higher, interest rates will follow. Discussion: • Direction of the Yield in the short-term and • Direction of the Yield in the long-term Divergence in a bull market means the bull is losing its momentum, keep a look-out for trigger points that may cause further stress to the market. Micro 10-Year Yield Futures 1/10 of 1bp = US$1 or 0.001% = US$1 3.000% to 3.050% = US$50 3.000% to 4.000% = US$1,000 Note: Micro Treasury futures are not micro-sized U.S. Treasury securities. They convey no rights of ownership, nor or they pay or accrue interest. Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
TVC:US10YEducation
by konhow
CME Gap: 2022 JulAfter 6 months absence, going to start my monthly thread on CME:BTC1! I have updated the monthly direction table for last 6 months. Even during a major bull run majority of the time CME Week was showing a weakness. However for last 6 months, CME week is showing a more of a ranging performance followed by weakness. CME Data: Trade Volume increasing while Open Interest is reducing, meaning contracts are getting closed prior to settlement. Gaps: Currently 2 major gaps are open Gap Open - 2022 May , within the price range of 34450 to 35925 Gap Open - 2022 June, within the price range of 27300 to 28945 Trades: Looking for short if price tries to get stronger prior to final settlement date.
CME:BTC1!Short
by cryptochi1986
Nasdaq a leading indicator of Dow Jones, S&P and RussellHow to use related markets to complement each other? Definitely you can apply this technique to other related markets. In this tutorial, I am seeing Nasdaq as a leading indicator for the rest may likely to follow. i) Nasdaq bear trend was nicely formed, but not yet for the Dow Jones, S&P and Russell. ii) Nasdaq in the short-term has also a confirmation for a rebound, and I believe the rest of the indices likely to follow subsequently. Discussion: • Drawing primary and secondary trendline • Nasdaq has broken above, the rest should catch-up, why? Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Feel free to leave any comments below, I love to exchange ideas with you.
Editors' picks
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by konhow
18
Commitment of Traders Report from Last Week - BTC UpdateGoing over the CME Gap that exists above us as well as the current Price Action. BTC failing it's swing was a great short after we short squeezed to the level. Swings, S/Rs, and Demand Zones are being respected perfectly. Scalping in this zone don't do anything except look for mechanical failures and retests/gains. Low liquidity expected. Lose or gain the Swing Levels then target the stuff above and below Otherwise look to play the bounces within these Swings.
by TrendmasterOfficial
2
Market Range - What are they trying to tell us?When the market range, it is telling us they are lost with the main direction. And we are seeing that between all the US major stock indices and many stocks since the second week of May. Prices basically still trading around the same price since then. In today’s tutorial, we will discuss: • How to identify when market started to enter into a range and • Which direction will it ultimately break away from a range market? The concept of “Less is More” When we trade into a contract that is within our means, we will be able to focus on trade set-up that is so helpful for entry, stop loss and profit taking than trying to manage our emotions as we have over traded. Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by konhow
BTC CME Gap What is CME Gap? (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) ( CME ) A CME gap is created when the price of Bitcoin opens above or below the previous day's close on the CME exchange. One of the prime reasons for CME gap creation is that CME markets remain closed over the weekend and during a part of the day. Bitcoin, on other spot exchanges, is traded 24×7. Historically, the percentage of CME gaps that get filled is between 60-80%. Hence, using it as an indicator provides you with a degree of accuracy. A review of previous events could shade more light on this claim. There is a possibility of a reversal because the GAPS are filled This is my idea. I have tried my best to bring the best possible outcome to this chart, Do not consider it FINANCIAL ADVICE. This chart is likely to help you in making better trade decisions. I am not a market maker I could be wrong. Everything is on the chart. Thank you
CME:BTC1!Long
by TheCryptoCity
4
In Search of an Edge for Non-Professional TradersCBOT:ZW1! What do Gold, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat have in common? Their prices all go up in a global crisis. In other words, these strategically important commodities are positively correlated with the level of risk. “Risk Up, Price Up; and Risk Down, Price Down”. Everyday non-professional traders (NonProfs) usually have a disadvantage trading these futures contracts. Let’s see who we are up against: • Commercial Firms, including producers, processors, merchants, and major users of the underlying commodities. • Financial Institutions, such as investment banks, hedge funds, asset managers, proprietary trading firms, commodity trading advisors and futures commission merchants. These professional traders (Profs) have industry knowledge, market information, research capabilities, trading technologies, high-speed and seemingly unlimited amount of money. They contribute to about 80% of trading volume for a typical futures contract. So, what could you do in an uphill battle? Recall our Three-Factor Commodity Pricing Model( ): Commodities Futures Price = Intrinsic Value + Market Sentiment + Global Crisis Premium In peaceful times, the coefficient of Crisis Premium is zero. The Profs win out easily. When a global crisis breaks out, price pattern may be altered completely. The chart illustrates how CBOT Wheat Futures behaves before and after the start of Russia-Ukraine conflict. Based on Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), a baseline futures price reflects all information regarding the Intrinsic Value and Market Sentiment factors. However, the Crisis Premium is unknown to all of us. The Profs could not use fundamental analysis or technical analysis to gain a better understanding of Mr. Putin’s mindset. Few had inside information of the inner working of the Kremlin or the Russian generals, either. Your guesses are just as good as the Profs when it comes to what’s happening next. An analogue: In a close-range hand combat, the Profs have no use for their arsenal of missiles, fighter jets and tanks. NonPros with limited resources are on an equal footing to trade against the Profs. It’s critical to pick a fight that you have a chance to win. Recall that we discussed how to define global crisis with binary outcomes, and select financial instruments based on their responses to those outcomes. ( ) For CBOT Wheat Futures, Ukraine conflict has become the dominant price driver since February 14th. But after four months, we still have no clue when or how the war could end. Let’s define it in two simple outcomes: War and Peace. The first one includes all scenarios that the war would continue or intensify, where the second one could be a peace deal or a victory in favor of either Russia of Ukraine. As a NonProf, you don’t want to dive deep into the impossible task of forecasting the different scenarios. Keep it simple: War = Risk Up, Peace = Risk Down. The probability of either outcome is real. It’s difficult to predict which one is more likely. Therefore, directional trades of Long or Short are both risky. Many event shocks exist to make the wheat price fluctuate. If a major wheat producing country announces an export ban, wheat price could fly because of global market shortage. However, a phone call between Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelenskyy could punch wheat price to the ground. Russia is the No. 1 wheat exporter. An end of the conflict could end the sanctions against Russia and increase global supply by 44 million tons of wheat. Looking back in 2018 and 2019, we know how strongly Gold Futures reacted to a call between the U.S. and China. A Long Strangle options strategy may be appropriate under these circumstances. Investor would purchase a Call and a Put option with a different strike price: an out-of-the-money (OTM) call option and an OTM put option simultaneously on the same wheat futures contract. This is based on my belief that wheat futures price could experience a very large movement, but I am unsure of which direction the move will take. The following is an illustration (not an actual trading strategy): September Wheat Futures (ZWU2) is quoted at $10.54/bushel on June 14th. An OTM call with a $12.00 strike price is quoted at 17 cents. An OTM put with a $9.00 strike price is quoted at 4.625 cents. Look at the chart again, you will see wheat price at $7.80 right before the war and up to $13.70 in early March. A Long Strangle will cost $1,081.25, as each call and put contract is based on 5,000 bushels of Chicago wheat. This is the maximum amount you would lose if wheat price stuck at current level in the next two months. A big move, either up or down, could make one of the two trades profitable, and hopefully with enough profit margins to cover the other losing trade. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CBOT:ZW1!
by JimHuangChicago
4
Showcase: Trading the e-mini Dow Jones (YM) 22-06-201. Did a long trade (paper trading) on e-mini Dow Jones. 2. Reason for the long trade: a) Price do a higher lower; a UT bar appears but the next bar overtake the UT. b) Volume is supporting the upward move. c) Strong support level at 29910 range. 3. Trade entered with SL @ 50pts and TP @ 75pts; as price move upwards with unrealised profit, the SL is revised upwards to minimise the losses and eventually lock-in the profit. 4. Price eventually do a pullback after breaking the recent Resistance (29966 range); our SL got hit and we exited with a realised profit of 24pts. 5. Price may move upwards from hereon; it is OK to exit with a small profit rather than be ambitious.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by mdalifalwi
All CME Gaps Filled! Last gap has been filled at 18400 there are no more gaps to be filled at lower levels , next gap is at 30k. Is this the bottom? very high chance that it is the bottom waiting for lower prices at this point would be crazy Chainlink hasn't even made lower lows. My worst case is 14k but now that we filled the last CME gap and we have this springboard on the daily hitting perfectly best to close all shorts. We at the bottom of the Mayer band this happens only in extreme cycle bottoms.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Sporia
11