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Cmefutures

CME BTC Futures Weekly Plan analysis In this tradingview blog, we will refer to our February 10, 2025, weekly trade plan for CME BTC futures . We highlighted three potential scenarios last week. Our main scenario 1 played out. It did not reach the high we expected in our plan, however, BTC futures consolidated further around the mCVPOC, i.e., our Anchored Volume Profile from November 10th, 2024. We highlighted the following key levels: Yearly Hi:110,920 mCVAH: 104,400 Dec 2024 mid-range: 101,570 Jan 2025 mid-range: 100,610 mCVPOC: 98,075 mCVAL: 93,730 Key Bull Support: 92,505 - 90,000 Scenario 1 stated Further chop and acceptance. We noted the following: “In this scenario, we may see price action remain range bound. Traders look for clarity on how policy may affect market sentiment before further committing capital”. Also, as acceptance (balance) builds, mCVPOC has also shifted. You can see that mcVPOC is currently sitting at 97,965 (when posting this recap). Market was choppy as expected, although it did not reach December 2024 or January 2025 mid-range. Markets chopped below mCVPOC, touching mCVAL. This is a time where patience is required and it is better to sit on your hands rather than engaging with markets in choppy conditions. Although we are wary of news and that it may impact prices. Our main portion of analysis and plan is founded upon Volume Profile, multiple time-frame analysis as mentioned in our recap from February 6, 2025. This is just one of many ways to look at the markets. We provide these recaps on our thoughts on markets to help you understand and incorporate these into your own style of viewing and analyzing the markets.
CME:BTC1!
by EdgeClear
Recap: CL and ES Weekly Plan analysis & Key LevelsNYMEX:CL1! CME_MINI:ES1! In this trading trading view blog we will refer to our February 3, 2025, weekly trading plans. Our main idea for ES futures was to get long above yearly open, also our key LIS (Line in Sand). And our main idea for CL futures was to stay short below February monthly open targeting mcVAL and then waiting for an opportunity to get long at our key bullish support zone. Below we explain our thoughts behind these ideas and how we choose our key levels and the process to create our plan. ES Trade Idea: Key Levels and Strategies Amid Macro Uncertainty : From our ES trade plan, scenario 1 played out. The line in sand for long trades was Key LIS/Yearly open. Click on the link above to see how this played out! Our key levels for the trade idea noted in the blog were: (mcVAH) micro composite value area high: 6,134.25 Key LIS/Yearly Open: 5,949.25 (mcVAL) micro composite value area low: 5,914.25 (CVAH) Composite Value Area High: 5,924 mcVAH held as an area of initial resistance. Our neutral zone at 6,068.25 - 6,051.50 acted as a zone for pullback after initial push higher. The remaining week was choppy with some days more volatile and playing out per our scenario 1 in our trading plan. CL Trade Idea: Key Levels & Strategies Amid Volatility: From our CL trade plan, scenario 1 also played out. Why we favored this as scenario 1 was due to rejection confirmed at January 2025 mid range. The provided a good short opportunity below Jan 2025 mid or February monthly open towards our key levels as specified in the trading plan. We mentioned the following key levels in last week’s plan. Micro Composite Value Area High (mCVAH) January 2025: 76.00 January 2025 mid- range: 74.96 February Monthly Open: 74.14 Micro Composite Value Area Low (mCVAL) January 2025: 71.82 Yearly Open: 70.52 2024 Mid- Range: 70.40 mCVAL provided a good target for short trades, while Yearly open and 2024 Mid-range confluence at our key bull support provided a good spot to initiate the long trade idea. Following a consistent process can help traders stick to a trading approach that can help them achieve consistency. Losses are an inherent part of trading, executing the trade plan also involves weighing which scenario will play out on the hard right edge in real- time. However, our market analysis blogs are aimed to educate traders, showing whatever their methodology or approach, consistency in preparation and having a roadmap of important price levels will help them distinguish between getting caught in noise versus important areas to engage with markets.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Market Update: Tariffs, Trade Shifts & Bitcoin's Next MoveCME:BTC1! News and Economic Calendar Update President Trump announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, effective Monday, with reciprocal tariffs to follow on Tuesday or Wednesday. As Trump has shared, “if they tax us, we tax them the same amount.” This move is expected to reshape global trade relations, with China reportedly considering probes into U.S. tech firms such as Broadcom (AVGO) and Synopsys (SNPS), according to WSJ. Japan's PM Ishiba remains optimistic about avoiding higher U.S. tariffs, while Australia and India are negotiating exemptions and trade concessions. Meanwhile, the EU has hinted at retaliatory measures should new tariffs be imposed. The U.S. dollar strengthened following Friday’s jobs report and fresh tariff announcements, while the Japanese yen under-performed. The EUR/USD briefly dipped below 1.03 before rebounding, and the British pound remained stable ahead of comments from BoE’s Mann. U.S. Treasury yields were unchanged, while European bunds edged higher amid rising trade concerns. Gold surged to an all-time high above $2,900/oz, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets due to tariff uncertainty. Meanwhile, crude oil reached session highs, and European natural gas prices climbed to a two-year peak due to colder temperatures and tight storage. Looking Ahead Key upcoming data releases include Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, U.S. CPI data, Chinese M2 Money Supply, and U.S. retail sales. Additionally, multiple central bank officials are scheduled to speak throughout the week, providing further insights into monetary policy direction. Macro Update: Trade War 2.0 and Tariff Shifts Impact Markets. The latest reciprocal tariff announcements from Trump, in our view, presents a strategic opportunity for the U.S. This approach enables negotiations for lower tariffs on U.S. exports with individual trading partners, fostering a more flexible and targeted trade policy. This shift aligns more with global trade integration and could provide a more balanced framework for U.S. exporters. Gold continues to exhibit renewed strength as a safe-haven asset, marking fresh all-time highs amid market uncertainty. Meanwhile, Bitcoin—often referred to as "digital gold"—has lagged behind, struggling in a climate of risk-off sentiment. However, it remains within its post-election trading range, signaling resilience despite broader market volatility. At the fiscal level, U.S. House Republican leaders are proposing federal spending cuts ranging between $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion, according to Punchbowl sources. These cuts are expected to focus heavily on Medicaid spending. However, the effectiveness of government spending adjustments remains in question—whether such measures will enhance efficiency or simply reduce overall spending is yet to be seen. In addition, extending President Trump’s tax proposals could cut revenue by $5-11T over a decade, potentially pushing U.S. debt to 132-149% of GDP by 2035. Senate Republicans propose $342B in border and defense spending, with offsetting cuts. Meanwhile, Musk’s DOGE Service aims to automate government functions, reduce the federal workforce, and slash spending. Bitcoin Big Picture: Bitcoin has been consolidating after making new all time highs post US elections. Although price action and consolidation points towards further bullishness. We remain cautious and prepared for any of the scenarios that may happen as a result of many different factors influencing risk assets and market sentiment. To better manage your exposure to Bitcoin, consider using CME’s Micro Bitcoin and Bitcoin Friday Futures . Additionally, you can take part in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, allowing you to showcase your Micro Bitcoin trading skills in The Leap —risk-free. Key Levels to Watch Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. Yearly Hi: 110,920 mCVAH: 104,400 Dec 2024 mid range: 101,570 Jan 2025 mid range: 100,610 mCVPOC: 98,075 mCVAL: 93,730 Key Bull Support: 92,505 - 90,000 Scenario 1: Further chop and acceptance In this scenario, we may see price action remain range bound. Traders look for clarity on how policy may affect market sentiment before further committing capital. Scenario 2: New ATHs Price attempts to create new ATHs which marks a significant move. Although bitcoin created new all time highs in January 2025, these were rejected and price action pointed towards market top. Scenario 3: Souring market sentiment Scenario 2 and 3 requires remaining alert to all developments as fundamental and macro news is turning ever so significant in driving short-term volatility and price action. Any further hint towards tighter monetary policy and tighter fiscal policy may send BTC prices lower very quickly.
CME:BTC1!
by EdgeClear
Is this the Pull Back Zone On Gold XAU GC1! In this video I highlight the potential area for a pull back on Gold Using the TR Pocket and Trend based Extension tool . Using these tools combined we were able to establish a zone of perfect confluence for a downside reaction on Gold. Also I use the new Demonstration Cursor released by Tradingview to highlight the levels on the chart of where my fib pulls were made. In addition to the above I noticed after completing the video that we have yearly pivots that are untapped around $2580. CPI on Wednesday may give us the narrative for the reaction up at those highlighted highs and to begin cooling off . I welcome your engagement Boosts comments + follows . Enjoy Ty
COMEX:GC1!
by SJTRADESFUTURES
Analyzing Our Crude Oil Trade Plan & Key LevelsNYMEX:CL1! This is our first blog recapping the trade plan from the prior week. In this blog, traders can take a sneak peek into why we choose and plot the levels we do on our charts. However, these are simply our thoughts and ideas on the market—we do not know what will happen. You should carefully consider whether this approach aligns with your own trading strategy and risk tolerance before making any decisions. Do you struggle with analysis paralysis in your trading? Don’t worry—we will help you develop a process that you can customize and apply to your own market approach. Markets by nature have randomness and uncertainty built in. Markets move based on the collective psyche of the participants. These footprints left behind by the collective participants analyzed through volume profiling and multiple time frames is what provides us with our selected support and resistance zones. To help you better understand our chart setup, here’s how we define key zones and indicators: On our charts, we use color-coded zones to highlight key market levels: Green zones indicate bull support areas. Red zones represent bearish support areas. Blue zones act as neutral zones but serve as important inflection points. The Line in the Sand (LIS) is a crucial reference point: A single LIS can be used to validate both long and short trade ideas. Alternatively, there may be separate LIS levels—one confirming long trades above it and another confirming short trades below it. Some other terms that you will commonly find in our blogs are: VPOC (Volume Point of Control): The price level with the highest traded volume within a given volume profile. VAH (Value Area High): The upper boundary of the value area, typically representing the +1 standard deviation level in the volume distribution. VAL (Value Area Low): The lower boundary of the value area, typically representing the -1 standard deviation level in the volume distribution. Value Area: The range where approximately 70% of the total traded volume occurs, falling within one standard deviation of the distribution. Important and significant levels on our charts are marked. You can see on the crude oil chart, that we consider mid ranges of defined year, quarter, month, week as significant areas of interest and reaction by market participants. We also give importance to HVN (High Volume Nodes) and LVN (Low Volume Nodes) and how price usually reacts to these visible distributions of high and low volumes on the volume profile. Our analysis begins with four key questions that guide our market perspective and decision-making process: What has the market done? What is it trying to do? How good of a job is it doing? What is more likely to happen from here? These questions are not intended to decipher the reasons behind market movements or predict outcomes based on personal bias. Instead, they provide a structured framework using Auction Market Theory, Volume Profile, and market-generated significant levels to develop a trade plan—whether for the day or the week. This trade plan does not dictate specific trades to take; rather, it serves as a roadmap, outlining the key areas where we may want to engage with the market. To illustrate the importance of structured market analysis and preparation, let's review how our recent crude oil trade plans have played out: Week of January 27, 2025 – Crude Oil Plan Recap : The initial trade plan played out, but a pullback occurred. Buyers stepped in, pushing prices back toward the Blue zone (also the LIS for longs and shorts). Long positions were only valid after confirming a reclaim of the January 2025 mid-range. Crude oil then moved sharply toward our key bull support zone before rebounding higher. This completed the trade plan scenario outlined in red. Week of January 13, 2025 – Key Takeaways : We identified the start of bullish momentum in crude oil following a long Q4 2024 consolidation. Two short trade scenarios were outlined, with the first playing out as expected. Reviewing past trade plans helps traders develop a structured market preparation process. This analysis was featured in the Editor’s Pick, mapping out key levels and our thought process. As we mentioned earlier, we do not have a crystal ball but we do have insights when planning for the week. If you are incorporating this weekly plan, please also monitor and be ready to adjust with new information that is provided on the hard right edge. If you click the play button on most of our trade plans and just consider that week’s price movement, you may notice that our plans have thoughts and efforts put in them.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
ES Trade Idea: Key Levels and Strategies Amid Macro UncertaintyCME_MINI:ES1! ES futures opened with a gap down on Sunday. With numerous macro headlines, President Donald Trump’s comments on the Fed’s decision last week, and ongoing trade war tariffs, traders may struggle to distinguish what truly matters for the markets from the noise. In our opinion, do not let macro headlines cloud your judgement. Have a trade plan and be ready to adjust with market conditions and volatility. One way to mitigate risk is by utilizing micro CME contracts , allowing for more precise risk management during volatile market conditions. Additionally, you can participate in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, giving you the opportunity to test your skills in The Leap without risking real money. Remember, it's NFP week, and several other key economic data releases are also on the calendar. In our view, it is important to zoom out and reduce key levels on your charts to ones that are significant. Key Levels: Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. (mcVAH) micro composite value area high: 6,134.25 Key LIS/Yearly Open: 5,949.25 (mcVAL) micro composite value area low: 5,914.25 (CVAH) Composite Value Area High: 5,924 Scenario 1: Long above Key LIS Our key LIS is still Yearly open as it was discussed in last week’s idea. We are looking for long trade setups at this level. Scenario 2: Short below Key LIS If the price moves lower and holds below a key level, we will look for short trade setups targeting our green support zones on the chart from mcVAL and CVAH confluence.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by EdgeClear
Is This Sell-Off Another "Buy the Dip" Opportunity?Macro Update Index futures sold off during overnight trading as market sentiment turned risk-off. Newswires reported that, after Colombia denied entry to two U.S. deportation aircraft, President Trump announced emergency tariffs of 25% on all Colombian imports, with plans to increase them to 50% next week. Additionally, The Wall Street Journal noted growing support among President Trump's advisors to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday to initiate negotiations. Meanwhile, Chinese startup DeepSeek is challenging U.S. dominance in the AI sector by introducing a low-cost model rivaling OpenAI's o1. This development may intensify geopolitical and economic tensions. Adding to the unease, Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs missed expectations. Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1, below the forecast of 50.1. Markets in China and most of Asia will remain closed starting Tuesday for the Lunar New Year holiday, which could lead to lower regional liquidity. Looking ahead, the week features several high-impact events: Wednesday, January 29: Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the first FOMC press conference of 2025. Bank of Canada interest rate decision. Thursday, January 30th: ECB interest rate decision Preliminary Q4 GDP data (QoQ). Friday, January 31st: Core PCE Price Index (Dec). ES Futures Update This week is packed with critical data releases, and macroeconomic developments are having a stronger influence on short-term price fluctuations. It’s an important time to step back, zoom out, and identify key levels of interest to engage with the market. Despite the overnight sell-off and heightened volatility, the auction process remains orderly. Managing risk is paramount, as losses are an inherent part of trading. Key Observations: ES futures bounced off the yearly open in overnight trading, marking it as our critical Line in the Sand (LIS). If prices stay above the LIS, markets are likely to consolidate further this week, with FOMC and other data releases determining the next move. A break below the yearly open could open the door to short trade opportunities targeting the support zones identified on the chart. Scenario 1: Wait and See Allow the market to digest the sell-off. Look for long setups from the LIS. Key events like the FOMC decision will likely influence market direction, but unexpected negative news could overshadow these data releases. Scenario 2: Sustained Sell-Off If a catalyst triggers further downside, the market may test support levels near 5,750 and 5,800. Below the LIS, short setups may be viable if supported by news or price action that aligns with a bearish trade thesis. For traders looking to manage risk more effectively, consider using Micro E-mini S&P 500 contracts , which are 1/10th the size of standard ES contracts. This week’s data releases, geopolitical developments, and tariff announcements are likely to shape market sentiment. Stay cautious and adapt to new information as it unfolds. Risk management remains the cornerstone of success in volatile markets. Not confident to incorporate these into your trading plan? Why not incorporate our trade ideas to your trade plan in TradingView and CME’s paper trading competition; “The Leap”.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
2
ES Futures Trade Idea- NFP Week Big Picture ES Futures: ES Futures are trading above yearly and monthly open at 5,949.25. On the weekly time-frame, we see the inside week on December 23, 2024. This was broken to the downside last week, and it closed back in prior week’s range. However, it is still inside of the FOMC December 2024 week. Sellers have failed to push lower and buyers have been stepping in around 5,875 and 5,850 levels. Looking at Volume Profile since 2024, we note that price is staying above Composite Value Area High. Acceptance of higher prices can be noted at yearly open level where high volume node (HVN) is visible and 6,150 level where another high volume node (HVN) is visible. All time highs are not far off. This week features a busy calendar with major events, including the NFP jobs report and a shortened trading day on January 9th in honor of President Carter. Key Levels: Yearly Open | LIS (Line in Sand): 5,949.25 CVAH: 5,854.25 Neutral Zone: 6,035 - 6,050 Key Support 1: 5,854.25 - 5,864.25 Resistance R1: 6,105 - 6,115 Resistance R2: 6,145 - 6,155 All time highs: 6,184.50 Scenario 1: New All Time Highs ES consolidates above neutral to test R1. Break above R1, will open a path towards testing All time highs this month. Scenario 2: Deeper Pullback Any push from sellers that takes prices below CVAH/Key Support 1 will create further downside pressure to test 5,800 and 5,750 bull supports.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
Trade Idea 2024-12-30 and Review of 2024As the year comes to a close, we expect it to be a quiet week. If you haven’t already, now is an excellent time to set your trading goals for the coming year. Where will your focus be? Which markets will you trade actively? What is your risk management plan? It is also a good time to complete a review for 2024 if you have not already! Keeping a trading journal is essential for tracking progress and learning from your mistakes. Active trading, like other high-performance activities, requires resilience, focus, and a winning mindset, but even with these attributes, losses are a natural part of the process. Always trade with a clear plan, manage your risks effectively, and never trade with more capital than you can afford to lose. As we wrap up the year, we are sharing a couple of the most popular charts we reviewed in 2024 and reflecting on the following questions we asked ourselves: What has the market done? What is it trying to do? How good of a job is it doing? What is likely to happen from here? Volume profile provides key insights into market auction and interaction of buyers and sellers. This is how we approach markets although there are many other ways of doing so. Big Picture ES Futures: Key Levels: 2024 mid point: 5574.50 2024 VPOC: 5441.75 2024 Value Area High: 5844.25 2024 High: 6184.50 Fib Extensions Target 1: 6388 Fib Extension Target 2: 6514.25 Fib Extension Target 3: 6590.75 Fib Extension Target 4: 6695.50 Big Picture BTC Futures: Key Levels: 2024 High: 108,960 2024 Mid point: 77,865 2024 VPOC: 69,710 2024 Value Area High: 79,525 Key Support for Bulls: 78,000 - 76,000 Big Picture CL Futures: Key Levels: Composite Value Area High: 79.65 2024 Value Area High: 74.90 2024 Mid point: 72.14 2024 VPOC: 69.70 2024 Value Area Low: 66.70 Composite Value Area Low: 63.55 We await the start of the new year to further gauge short term price action, volume and ranges for the upcoming year! Happy trading from EdgeClear! We wish you all a great 2025! Disclaimer: The views expressed are opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
BTC Futures Analysis: Key Levels, and Potential ScenariosBig Picture: BTC Futures reached a new high at 108,960 last Tuesday Dec 17, 2024. FED rate decision and 2025 rate cut projections tampered down from 4 to 2 resulted in market sell-off. BTC futures were also down reaching a low of 92,355 on Friday and closing at 96,600. CME Futures halt early tomorrow and are closed on Wednesday Dec 25th, 2024 for Christmas holiday. We also have a very light economic calendar. Lower liquidity during the holiday period may push prices in either direction. Key Levels to Watch: Nov 18th Week Hi: 101,110 Dec 10th Low: 94,785 Last Week Low: 92,355 LIS (Line in Sand) for short-term bulls: 92000- 90,000 support zone. Scenario 1: Consolidation Above Key Support BTC futures further consolidate between Dec 10th Low and Nov 18th Week Hi at 101,110. Price did not close below LIS last week. As long as this support holds, price holding above 94,785 may provide a setup towards 100,000- 101,110. Scenario: 2: Breakdown below LIS Break down of LIS will see a deeper pull back towards 78,000. Here it will be a wait and see approach for BTC futures to hold below 90,000 mark and expect further downside if buyers fail to push prices back above. Disclaimer: The views expressed are opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
CME:BTC1!
by EdgeClear
ES Futures Trade Idea: Santa Rally Expectationswww.tradingview.com The ES futures market has maintained a bullish trajectory in 2024, with few pullbacks along the way. Currently, the futures are consolidating near All-Time Highs, setting the stage for a pivotal week ahead. Key Catalysts to Watch Wednesday, December 18th, 2024 FED Interest Rate Decision Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) FOMC Meeting These events could provide the momentum needed to fuel a potential Santa Claus Rally. However, whether this materializes remains uncertain. Additional Economic Data The economic calendar this week is packed with key data releases, beginning with the preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI readings at 8:45 AM CT today. On Tuesday, the spotlight will be on November US Retail Sales, while Thursday, December 19th, 2024, brings a flurry of critical updates, including the Bank of England (BOE) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate decisions, Q3 US GDP, initial jobless claims, and November existing home sales. The week concludes on Friday, with the release of the FED’s preferred Core PCE Price Index for November at 7:30 AM CT, offering fresh insights into inflation trends. Key Levels to Watch: Target for Bulls: 6295-6310 Line in Sand (LIS): 6045-6055 R1: 6105-6115 R2: 6145-6155 R3: 6195-6205 S1: 5970-5960 S2: 5855-5835 Key Support S3: 5735-5745 Possible Scenarios Scenario 1: Sustained Bullish Movement and Santa Rally In this bullish case, ES futures break out of the consolidation zone following the FED announcements. This could lead to a year-end rally with prices targeting the Fibonacci extension level at 6312.50, setting the stage for continued gains into Q1 2025. Scenario 2: Santa Rally Followed by Pullback Here, the FED-driven Santa rally kicks off but encounters resistance. After the initial bullish push, the market consolidates into year-end as traders await fresh inflows and sector rotations in January for the next directional move. Both scenarios hinge on key data releases and market reaction to the FED’s guidance. Keep an eye on the Line in the Sand (LIS) at 6045–6055, as it represents a critical level for the ongoing trend. This week’s calendar is packed with high-impact events that could drive volatility and shape the near-term outlook for ES futures. Stay prepared! Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by EdgeClear
Gold Futures Trade Idea Gold futures have broken out of multi-year resistance levels and are trading near all-time highs. After trending higher for most of 2024, the focus shifts to where prices will move in 2025 and the remaining weeks of the year. Several macroeconomic factors will influence gold's trajectory, including: 1. Geopolitical landscape 2. Interest rates and inflation outlook 3. Supply and demand dynamics In the next two weeks, significant data points and economic events will shape the market. Central banks worldwide are set to adjust interest rates. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 bps on December 18, 2024. Key considerations will include any shift in language about future rate cuts and the dot plot from the upcoming meeting. Additionally, the U.S. CPI report, due Wednesday, will be closely watched. Key Levels to Watch: Line in the Sand (LIS): 2673.80–2684.50 Resistance: 2740–2760 Support: 2552.50–2566.80 Three Possible Scenarios for Gold Futures Prices: 1. Bullish Break Above LIS: A breakout and sustained hold above the LIS could push prices higher toward resistance levels. This scenario might be driven by softer CPI data on Wednesday and the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, including potential future rate cuts. A lower inflation environment could provide further tailwinds for gold. 2. Pullback Toward Support: If prices break and hold below the LIS, clearing recent consolidation lows around 2630, a decline toward the support zone is likely. This scenario aligns with persistent inflation, leading to a "higher for longer" interest rate environment in 2025. Additionally, easing geopolitical tensions under the new U.S. administration could shift focus toward domestic policies, potentially reducing gold's safe-haven appeal. 3. Range-Bound Price Action: Gold prices could consolidate near current highs, trading within a range below all-time highs. This scenario reflects a lack of decisive inflows or outflows, with market participants waiting for clearer cues to shape the price trajectory in 2025. As the year concludes, the interplay between macroeconomic factors and technical levels will determine whether gold continues its upward momentum, retraces to support, or stabilizes in a range. Stay tuned for key economic releases to guide near-term price action. Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
COMEX:GC1!
by EdgeClear
WTI Crude Oil 2024: Range-Bound Trends and Key LevelsBig Picture: WTI Crude Oil Futures prices have been largely range-bound for most of 2024 with yearly low of 62.54 and high at 81.75 defining the trading range. Analyzing the Composite Volume Profile since January 2022 reveals that 2024’s price action has been contained within the Composite Value Area High (CVAH) at $79.91 and Composite Value Area Low (CVAL) at $63.57 We further note that while there are many bearish and bullish analyses for crude oil floating from different market analysts, market auction theory and charts point towards further range bound price action for December 2024 and foreseeable 2025 ahead until proven otherwise. OPEC+ meeting is scheduled to take place on December 5th, 2024. It was previously planned to take place on Dec 1st, 2024. The change accommodates the Kuwait Summit, with Saudi Arabia and its allies expected to discuss production quotas—a decision that could influence market dynamics. Additionally, U.S. crude oil production in 2024 has reached record-high levels. Geopolitical issues have not had a major impact on Crude prices as prices remain range bound. Intraday volatility remains amidst geopolitical uncertainty. WTI Crude Oil Key Levels: CVAH : 79.91 CVAL : 63.57 2024 Yearly Mid : 72.15 2024 Yearly Lo : 62.54 2024 CVAH : 75.60 2024 CVAL : 66.97 Market Scenarios: Short Term Resistance (2024 Mid and CVAH) : Price movements toward the upper range (CVAH at $79.91 or $75.60) could signal buyer exhaustion, with limited upside momentum expected. Short Term Support (CVAL and Yearly Low) : Movements toward lower levels (CVAL at $63.57 or $66.97) may indicate seller exhaustion, preventing a significant breakdown. As crude oil remains range-bound, traders should monitor these key levels and the OPEC+ meeting outcomes for potential catalysts. Until then, the market appears set to maintain its current trading range. Disclaimer : The views expressed are personal opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
2
Bitcoin’s CME futures gap gives a clue for the 1st big correctonAnytime you see a gap in price action like this they almost always get filled, and typically get filled sooner than later. So while there is a chance bitcoin could turn the current mild retracement into a deeper pullback that goes down to fill this gap, until the current support on btc is broken, which is the top trendline of the rising wedge it now currently has 3 consecutive daily candles above(not shown here), I think it’s more probable that bitcoin waits for a much more powerful resistance line that results in a much stronger rejection before it corrects back down far enough to fill this gap. If the current pullback doesn’t lead to the gap fill then my guess is once we retest the top green trendline of this group of channels: That this would be the perfect time to have our first significant correction of the current parabolic phase of the bull market. I will be prepared for either zone to have a chance to fill that gap and plan accordingly, Also a few measured move targets around the 115 - 116k range so a pullback could potentially occur around that zone as well. *not financial advice*
CME:BTC1!
by DrDovetail
Will ETH Fill Its CME Futures Gap at $3,000?ETH CME futures gap between the $3,000 and $3,150 levels is expected to be filled before a potential upward movement. Historically, 95% of CME futures gaps have been filled, suggesting that this pattern may repeat. The $3,000 level serves as a strong psychological support for ETH, and once the gap is filled, a significant bounce from the $3,000 level can be anticipated. BINANCE:ETHUSDT BINANCE:ETHUSDT.P BITSTAMP:ETHUSD Regards Hexa
CME:ETH1!
by HexaTrades
What’s Putting Crude Oil Prices Under Pressure?At a Glance With vehicle efficiency up and China's economy slowing, WTI crude oil prices experienced late summer lows, though they have since started to rebound Driving would need to increase by nearly 2% each year to keep fuel demand stable Crude oil prices fell sharply in late August and early September. Does this mean that oil is a bargain? The answer is complex. For starters, OPEC+ has taken 3.6 million barrels per day off of the market over the past two years. Secondly, geopolitical tensions remain high. What explains oil’s weakness despite these factors that ordinarily might have supported prices? Vehicle Efficiency The average car in model year 2024 will likely be able to drive as much as 24% further on the same amount of fuel as a similar car from model year 2012. Since a car typically lasts about 12 years, this means that each year drivers around the world need to drive about 2% further than the year before just to keep demand stable. In the U.S., drivers aren’t driving any further than they were back in 2019. Demand From China Last year, 35% of new cars sold in China were EVs, and this year that could grow to over 50%. China’s economy is also growing more slowly than in the past. Since 2005, oil prices have often peaked about one year after peaks in China’s pace of growth. China’s growth rate last crested in 2021, and oil prices peaked a year later in 2022. Moreover, China’s economy decelerated sharply over the summer which might deprive oil of a critical source of demand growth going into late 2024 and into next year. Finally, watch for OPEC+ decisions later this year, which could potentially boost output. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out CME Group data plans available on TradingView to suit your trading needs: tradingview.com/cme/ By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
NYMEX:CL1!
by CME_Group
BTC CME 2 Day Points of interest $49K low coming?!?I have back tested this and there are 4 downward points of interest, all the wat down to 32K!! Don't think 32 will happen , but never retested. The white circles are where I have buys in, I do think that the low will be a kiss down to the circle between the 6.18 and the 7.86, the previous high before this run has never been tested either. when the market runs up fast and high then its has a long way down for a retest, otheise the yop will come too early look at 200 & 50 MA also
CME:BTC1!Short
by Chefrusty
2