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Cmefutures

Bitcoin's escapades for the next weekAfter breaking out from the $4k resistance, I mentioned in my previous post that I had lost confidence in a full wave up to my $4600 target since we had that hidden bearish divergence on the 4H. There was also a slight resemblance to the fractal on 25/26 November when the bull flag failed and headed down to print a higher low at $3684. We've now printed a higher high at $4447 after following a similar pattern to the previous bounce and it seems like we may potentially be forming an ascending channel that could potentially turn into a larger bear flag. I'm expecting a move down to the 61.8 fib retracement level around $3975 which coincides with the channel support and should establish a higher swing low above $3900. CME bitcoin futures expiry on Friday so i'm expecting a strong move closer to then. If we bounce from the channel support, then we should hopefully form another higher high closer to our $4700 resistance which will bring the price back to the falling wedge support after retracing to around $4236 (61.8 fib retracement from a $6700 high). If price breaks to the downside from channel support, I'll be looking at $3500 for a new temporary floor. This is the hidden bearish divergence I was referring to yesterday on the 1D chart. I know the divergence hadn't fully printed yet at the time of posting yesterday but even if RSI and price had gone higher, we would have still had the hidden bearish diversion on the 1D unless price broke $5750 which would have been unlikely or if price had dropped substantially to bring the RSI lower before the close yesterday. This might mean that the larger bear flag may play out if the daily divergence plays out over the same period of time. I'll be keeping a close eye around channel support. Good luck and happy trading! Previous post:
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Corn_Reaper
BTC one more correction - end of November. TA/FA. FED, CME, G20FA: - G20 summit (markets been pumped prior to that event - dump on event) - CME futures expire - FED reduction - 26-28.11 been Consensus Invest conference (BTC been pumped during that time - dump after event) TA: - notice very strong trend channel of entire correction since 6300$ - two gann fans supporting possible outcomes - RSI bearish divergences - RSI bearish historical resistance - Stoch turning down - EMA100 (2H) on the top of channel - 4180$ - EMA10 (1D) on higher line of the top of the trend channel - 4410$ - EMA10 crossing down EMA100 on 1W - already 2x 4D 10h intervals before falling Conclusion: - BTC and other markets been artificially pumped pre event this week, and my expectation is that they will dump right before. - One exception here is Consensus event that was known to pump crypto during entire conference of Consensus conference editions. - BTC could break higher of course eg. as Gann fan indicating 5.1k till Friday, though I am not really TA enthusiast after all I wrote. Was looking to support my FA and price action bias, to be precise.
BITMEX:XBTUSD.PShort
by sdzd1234
CBOE/CME Start and Expiration Date ContractsThis is a plot of all the start, Last, and expiration of the CBOE and CME Contracts. I may need to adjust some of the dates but i would like to get contract dates and etf decisions or delays on one spot for referance. How do futures contracts affect the market? Will any denial of ETF's drive the price down or do us crypto traders not even care at this point? I personally dont care and feel that most everyone expects denials across the board until we have further interest from institutions across the board. We have seen some interests of late including Morgan Stanley, Fidelity, BlackRock, and more. We also have seen some of the best University's from the us show interest recently such as Yale. I have read some other institutions interest but would like to see a clear list of for and against crpyto at this point. Slowly but surely interest is rising from institutions while retail investors have been shaken out this year for the most part. If anyone has any information or date corrections please let me know in the comments! Have a good week.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by 2Legit
2
Bitcoin's bias remains up, but sideways through tomorrowGood morning, traders. We are nearing the end of the week which means CME Bitcoin futures expire in just over 24 hours (10 a.m. CST on 9/28/2018). Bitcoin continues to move sideways as we suggested might likely happen, but it did finally break through the resistance at the descending blue line. The resistance combined with the ascending support created a pennant which gives price a target of almost $6695 based on the flagpole leading to it. But first price has to hit the $6614 target. This gets it back into the yellow box. Don't forget that the largest target of $6763 is now triggered and is based on the DBW. The swing high at $6540 remains the key to those targets. Successful breach of that swing high should send price on its way. Failure to breach it suggests supply is greater than demand and we may see price dipping below $6300. There are gaps up to $6973 on the 15 minute chart from the last run up to $7400, suggesting the most likely move is up to fill those gaps. Price remains within the descending channel/bull flag on the 1D chart. A breach of this flag's resistance should send price targeting $7290 at this time, which puts it at the bottom of the blue box. At that point, price is just a skip away from breaching the $7430 swing high that marks the top of the right shoulder. Doing so confirms the compound fulcrum and should mark the reversal. It also takes price through the resistance of the February descending wedge as well as the June symmetrical triangle thereby providing a target of just over $11,200. A higher high above $8500 confirms a bullish trend on the larger TF as it would give us higher lows and highs for the first time this year, and it does so over the course of 3+ months. The DJI printed a three black crows candlestick pattern which is a sign of a reversal. It did so after printing the evening star which is also a reversal sign. The recent Zero Hedge article (www.zerohedge.com) noting that insider selling has soared and is showing the fastest pace of September sales in the past decade, while the average continues to rise, confirms what I noticed about Friday's $90 TR but >2x average volume -- retail is being distributed to. FOMC raised interest rates 25 basis points as expected yesterday and we can see the DXY rising as a result. Again, this was expected as a response to the interest rate hike. FOMC stated they planned to raise the rate once more this year and 3x in 2019. If stocks are in distribution as they appear, then we will be lucky if we see another raise any time soon. Gold is dropping as a response to the rise in the DXY but currently remains within the month-long TR though I'm not sure it will be able to remain within it.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
7
One more push before Bitcoin retraces? Good morning, traders. I'm trying a darker color scheme here, so let me know what you think. It is the beginning of the work week in the U.S. after the 3-day holiday weekend. Shorts jumped up over the weekend the short/long ratio currently stands at 1.1558. There are a couple of possible reasons for this: 1) big player could be baiting retail into shorting so they can initiate a short squeeze to get through the resistance at $7300-$7500, 2) an individual/entity could be playing contrarian and hoping that price dives, or 3) they are hedging their long spot position just in case price drops. As I am writing this, there was a push up to $7400, which was the equilibrium of the ascending channel, liquidating some shorts in the process. This moved price through the immediate resistance around $7330 which marked the top of the apparent ascending triangle. The target of that pattern would be the previous R3 pivot on the 6H TF at $7680. Remember, pattern targets are often not hit, so traders should never rely solely on them. It is possible that the ascending triangle was a pennant, in which case the target based on the flagpole of the pattern would be around $7900. This was the pattern I was watching earlier this weekend, but the resistance at $7330 may be suggesting the ascending triangle mentioned above. The $7340-$7350 level is showing good support for the moment with resistance from $7400-$7500, $7550, and $7580. On Bitmex, there was a sell wall of about $42 million recently at $7700, but it is now around $22.5 million. All of this means that my target of the $7600-$7900 range as the top of this leg up, that I've mentioned for a few weeks based off various patterns we've talked about, is still valid, so we will see how price action plays out. If we look at what's been going on in terms of Wyckoff, then we likely just completed another re-accumulation range. Bearish divergences are starting to show up on various TFs, however, so it becomes increasingly difficult to know if the top of this leg up is in now. If not, it does appear close at least. It seems to me that we have one more push into the zone mentioned above, but I can't guarantee anything. I have been talking about the CME Bitcoin futures gaps for a while now and Friday I mentioned the likelihood of it gapping up after the weekend which would require a retrace to fill it. At this point, price is currently filling the nearest daily gap but needs to close at $7380 or higher to do so. We then have gaps that require daily closes at/above $8415, $10,775, and $15005. Below current price, there are gaps that require a daily close below $7045, $6405, and $5885. Those lower gaps, especially the sub-$6000 one, are why I continue to mention that a shakeout is still a possibility. A sudden drop down into the $5000s would get price under that gap, and then the following daily close would fill it. There is also the possibility we could see a continued push up toward the February high around $11,800 first, and then a move down and shakeout. This latter scenario would be the most productive for a shakeout as the retail herd would be much more bullish so the sudden drop would get rid of the remaining weak hands. In this scenario, the previous low is most like a secondary test, as I've mentioned the possibility, rather than a spring, and the shakeout would be a spring. The herd is "hoping" for bullishness right now, but they aren't believing it so a shakeout right now would not be as convincing. The latter scenario has me expecting a retrace down to $6800-$7200, depending on how high price moves first, before continuing up to challenge the February high. If you've been following my live streams this year then you already know these are the scenarios I deem most likely and why. I still see little-to-no reason for any prolonged move under $5000 at this time. As always, risk management remains key. Trading without a plan will make sure you don't last long.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
11
WOW! This is the reason why BTC Price going to hell!From my last analysis, I thought the 4 months up and down cycle will continue and BTC price will going up to test 9000$ by June 2018... But I was totally wrong! But now I get it! It's easier to suppress the BTC price down because there are few players in the market right now. So the last time CME future was settle, BTC price was around 7700. But since they suppress the price to reach 5800-6000... they can get fat profit around 25% ( 7700 -> 5800 ) So... What will be the BTC price for next CME settlement? If they mark -25% down, the price will be around 4500-5000 by August 2018. SHORT!!!!!!!!!!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Real_inwCoin
2
BTC movement idea laced with futures timelineThis time I added futures opening (3M on 29th of may and 6M on 29th of June - which will be long - hence need for low entry into BTC) and closing (25th of May - short). the 29th of June might end in triangle, mieght end below - Cause what better entry into alts for big players then BTC @ 5K? All is needed is loading enough of Korea FUD ;) BTW the dotted lines are previous formations broken up or down, disregard them I mark this chart as short term long (after we touch @6900) and longer term after touching close to 9k - short
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Alinoe
CME BTC Futures affect on Bitcoin Price Since CME futures which started in December 2017 Bitcoin prices stayed under 10 - 10.5k. See the Bitcoin Calendar here: cryptocalendar.pro We had something similar happened with Gold, Silver price since the "FUTURES" started in Mid 2011. See gold chart after when futures start in Mid 2011 See Silver chart after when futures start in Mid 2011 So what we don't know here is that these big exchange trying to regulate the bitcoin market using Bitcoin Futures. See more info here: cointelegraph.com I tried to find more information about Futures started in Mid 2011 to get a confirmation but i still couldnt find more information about this. Finally I know that Correlation is not Causation but this is something that we need to be aware of i guess.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by surangadesilva
4
CBOE/CME Bitcoin Future settlement date and BTC price relationI notice that the CME/CBOE settlement date are related to BTC price. This is just my idea, need more time to prove this pattern. * Price will pump or dump before CBOE settlement date ( right before enter the red zone ) * There were 2 cycles of pump and dump so far ( the current cycle is pumping Apr 4, 2018 ) * The price will keep pumping until around 9-10 May 2018 and it will continue to drop. * They will use media to manipulate the price, from now on, there will be only good news about crypto/bitcoin to lure people in with FOMO. * Then they will dump the price again with FUD. Let's see how far we can go this time :)
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Real_inwCoin
2
E-Mini S&P500 Future JUN18 (CME)Trading Signal Short Position (EP) : 2635.25 Stop Loss (SL) : 2643.5 Take Profit (TP) : 2604.25 Description ES1! formed Double Repo Sell at 30m time frame. Trade setup with sell limit at 0.382 level of FR (2635.25) and place stop loss at 0.618 level of FR (2643.5). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement zone (2604.25) Money Management Money in portfolio : $73,000 Risk Management (0.5%) : $365 Position Sizing $0.25 = +-$12.50 (Mini) Commission fee = -$2.05/contract (Mini) EP to SL = $8.25 = -$412.50/contract (Mini) Contract size to open = 1 mini contract EP to TP = $31.00 = +$1,550 (Mini) Expected Result Commission Fee = -$4.1 Loss = -$412.50 Gain = +$1,550 Risk/Reward Ratio = 3.72
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SuppasitWechprasit
This time it's different. No, it's a glorious bubble!You can feel it in the air! The delusion is magnificent, the hope is higher than ever. Nothing can go wrong right? It cant crash, BTC will take over the world! It's a new paradigm! Only upwards from here, we have exceeded all expectations and the chart screams UP UP and UP!! If you don't want to lose your shirt, this is the time to stay calm. This is where you need to be cynical and shut everything out. Maybe take 30 minutes and just stare at the chart. This time it aint different, and it never will be. Fundamental Bitcoin has jumped higher then I expected! Probably higher then you expected as well. It's been a crazy year and we who have been here since the last bubble are all rich now. The amount of new people entering is astonishing! Dumb money is being poured into the crypto space, and the majority of it is entering Bitcoin in this historical bubble. Why do I call it dumb money? Because it's money that is entering on hype and FOMO. Money that didnt buy when the media phase started, and certantly not when Bitcoin was in the shadows. It's money that has been to afraid to enter the market because it didnt believe in the tech. But now that it hears "everybody" else is making big bucks on Bitcoin it wants in. Is it money that is intented to be used on the underlying asset? No. It's pure speculation and greed. It's money that dont have an exit strategy, it just wants to be included. A reciepe for disaster. Let's take a look at the fundamentals and ask ourself, what is the difference now from 1 year ago? We have more people using BTC, obviously, but it's mostly used on speculation. Now we don't have 1 Bitcoin anymore, we have 4 with huge marketcaps. The scaling saga is maybe more positive now then it was 1 year ago, but it's a big maybe. Lightning network is a very promising project and I have big faith in it, however, at this stage it is barely a working product. Big blocks was a solution for today, but far from sustainable, and fundamentally it has done BIG damage to Bitcoin Core. Is the ordinary financial world collapsing? Do you have problems paying for a loaf of bread with dollars (or have to grossly overpay)? The world may be in terrible shape, but currently, the economic shape is fantastic! If this reality changes, we have a different picture, but until then Bitcoin aint worth 10 grand! I rather take the fiat for now, MUCH easier to spend ;) And oh.. We have futures launch, which is a big driver for the hype we are seeing. Insititutional money will enter the Bitcoin market. But is it really a positive? First of, its more likely then not that it has already entered and a big possibility that the money coming in will be used to make Bitcoin go down, not up. On the other hand, its not even a guarantee that the futures will launch. And for the first time I have reached the maximum amount of charachters so you need to research that yourself :) Technical We have a classic bubble going on, and I believe we are in the final stage! I can just feel it in my bones. Gravity left for vacation, but a vacation dont last forever, and when vacation is over, harder times are ahead. So is this the top? I have no idea. It could very well go above 10k, it could go 11.5k, but if it goes above 12-13k I have made a mistake and need to take the consequences. Because I am shorting here at 9700 USD. I am hodling that position all the way up to 12k if that's what it takes. It's just a too good number to pass up this trade right now. Earlier today at 9490 USD I sold every bit of Bitcoin I had left. I am now 50% alts and 50% cash. Looking to reinvest in Bitcoin in the 3-5k-5k area, and possibly hold short until 5100 USD! I have been wrong on Bitcoin TA already through this bubble, but to be fair, so has a big majority of traders in this space. Bitcoin have just shattered rules and destroyed rational predictions. Numbers Short - 9700 USD Buy - 5100 USD Stop Loss - 12k-13k range
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Kryptokelly
166