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Cmefutures

Using S&P to Identify RecessionInstead of waiting for NBER to officially declare the confirmation of recession, an alternative way to identify is using the U.S. indices quarterly chart, especially the S&P. Typically, economists call a recession when GDP has declined for two consecutive quarters. A committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is responsible for officially declaring when recessions start and end. Why I favour S&P over Dow Jones and Nasdaq? It has 500 companies from the largest to the smallest and from various industries. It is commonly use to benchmark for stock portfolio performance in America, a much wider and broader measurement. Whereas Nasdaq is Tech heavy and Dow Jones with too limited stocks of 30. Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by konhow
In Search of an Edge for Non-Professional TradersCBOT:ZW1! What do Gold, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat have in common? Their prices all go up in a global crisis. In other words, these strategically important commodities are positively correlated with the level of risk. “Risk Up, Price Up; and Risk Down, Price Down”. Everyday non-professional traders (NonProfs) usually have a disadvantage trading these futures contracts. Let’s see who we are up against: • Commercial Firms, including producers, processors, merchants, and major users of the underlying commodities. • Financial Institutions, such as investment banks, hedge funds, asset managers, proprietary trading firms, commodity trading advisors and futures commission merchants. These professional traders (Profs) have industry knowledge, market information, research capabilities, trading technologies, high-speed and seemingly unlimited amount of money. They contribute to about 80% of trading volume for a typical futures contract. So, what could you do in an uphill battle? Recall our Three-Factor Commodity Pricing Model( ): Commodities Futures Price = Intrinsic Value + Market Sentiment + Global Crisis Premium In peaceful times, the coefficient of Crisis Premium is zero. The Profs win out easily. When a global crisis breaks out, price pattern may be altered completely. The chart illustrates how CBOT Wheat Futures behaves before and after the start of Russia-Ukraine conflict. Based on Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), a baseline futures price reflects all information regarding the Intrinsic Value and Market Sentiment factors. However, the Crisis Premium is unknown to all of us. The Profs could not use fundamental analysis or technical analysis to gain a better understanding of Mr. Putin’s mindset. Few had inside information of the inner working of the Kremlin or the Russian generals, either. Your guesses are just as good as the Profs when it comes to what’s happening next. An analogue: In a close-range hand combat, the Profs have no use for their arsenal of missiles, fighter jets and tanks. NonPros with limited resources are on an equal footing to trade against the Profs. It’s critical to pick a fight that you have a chance to win. Recall that we discussed how to define global crisis with binary outcomes, and select financial instruments based on their responses to those outcomes. ( ) For CBOT Wheat Futures, Ukraine conflict has become the dominant price driver since February 14th. But after four months, we still have no clue when or how the war could end. Let’s define it in two simple outcomes: War and Peace. The first one includes all scenarios that the war would continue or intensify, where the second one could be a peace deal or a victory in favor of either Russia of Ukraine. As a NonProf, you don’t want to dive deep into the impossible task of forecasting the different scenarios. Keep it simple: War = Risk Up, Peace = Risk Down. The probability of either outcome is real. It’s difficult to predict which one is more likely. Therefore, directional trades of Long or Short are both risky. Many event shocks exist to make the wheat price fluctuate. If a major wheat producing country announces an export ban, wheat price could fly because of global market shortage. However, a phone call between Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelenskyy could punch wheat price to the ground. Russia is the No. 1 wheat exporter. An end of the conflict could end the sanctions against Russia and increase global supply by 44 million tons of wheat. Looking back in 2018 and 2019, we know how strongly Gold Futures reacted to a call between the U.S. and China. A Long Strangle options strategy may be appropriate under these circumstances. Investor would purchase a Call and a Put option with a different strike price: an out-of-the-money (OTM) call option and an OTM put option simultaneously on the same wheat futures contract. This is based on my belief that wheat futures price could experience a very large movement, but I am unsure of which direction the move will take. The following is an illustration (not an actual trading strategy): September Wheat Futures (ZWU2) is quoted at $10.54/bushel on June 14th. An OTM call with a $12.00 strike price is quoted at 17 cents. An OTM put with a $9.00 strike price is quoted at 4.625 cents. Look at the chart again, you will see wheat price at $7.80 right before the war and up to $13.70 in early March. A Long Strangle will cost $1,081.25, as each call and put contract is based on 5,000 bushels of Chicago wheat. This is the maximum amount you would lose if wheat price stuck at current level in the next two months. A big move, either up or down, could make one of the two trades profitable, and hopefully with enough profit margins to cover the other losing trade. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CBOT:ZW1!
by JimHuangChicago
4
4 Reasons why the BTC Bottom could be CloseINDEX:BTCUSD In today's video I look at 4 reasons why I think we are close to the bottom: 1. 200 week MA - historically the 200 week MA has indicated the bottom 2. Fibonacci golden pocket retracement - a fib pulled from the very start of bitcoin in July 2010 to the all time high, show a zone for the possible low 3. Weekly RSI - historically we have never gone below a certain level and we are nearing that level 4. CME Gaps waiting to be filled - there is a gap that is about to be filled These four factors are aligning very well with weekly and daily support levels that BTC is nearing. Could this be the bottom or close to it? Have a look at the video and let me know in the comments what you think. Not financial advice. DYOR. Papertrade before using real money. If you liked this idea, please give a thumbs up and follow. Safe trading. Shawn
INDEX:BTCUSD
by zartraderguy
Nasdaq: Bear is In-ChargeA typical characteristic of a bull market as seen is its significant highs are higher and its lows are higher. However, the market has confirmed moving into bear when the market broke below the major uptrend on the 3rd week of 2022. Now we could see the Bear is in-charge. And a typical characteristic of a bear market as seen is its significant highs are lower and its lows are lower. Before 2022, my strategy was to buy on dips. However, starting this year when the major uptrend line was broken below, my focus now is to sell into strength when opportunity arises. Of course fundamentals also play a big part when Jerome Powell mentioned in December 2021 that U.S. inflation is "not transitory". Then we all know the Fed was preparing the environment for more interest rate hikes in 2022 and maybe beyond. When things change, our strategy changes.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by konhow
The Last Stand for Bitcoin📆🟡 BTC/USDT (BITCOIN) 📊 Time Frame: 4H ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ Bitcoin is trying to hold the last local support at 3000$ and I think finally it will be break. Bitcoin needs to hold above 34000$ then we can see a movement to 39000$ (IN ORDER TO GATHERING LIQUIDITY).Lots of longs liquidated below 33000$ and many Stop Loss already hit. Now there are many sorters in the market and liquidity is around 35000$ and also CME gap is at 35000$. So I expect price to pump around 35K$ in next few days. Not even single good news affect on bitcoin price positively because of global tension in the market.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Trader_Needs
Btc1! Daily CME GAP Analysis Update🟢#BTC Update Price currently in consolidation phase with frequent liquidity grabs and stop hunts. We also had BTC filling a CME gap earlier which is a good sign for expecting a move upwards, we have also successfully reed D1 200 EMA which is a good sign as well since a re is very important for market to gain back momentum. Weekly closure will clear out things further and we can possibly expect a move sooner, where breaking through and holding above our first resistance at $47300 approximately will be a bullish sign. Analyzed by Hossein 📅 04.04.2022 ⚠️ (DYOR)
CME:BTC1!Long
by Trader_Needs
Bitcoin CME gaps are still in playHello Friends! Can this be a slow bleed to fill Bitcoin’s CME gaps? Bitcoin has already filled one gap between $32k-$34K. Now there are still two open gaps. -$24K-$26K -$18K-19K It’s still on a downward trend with week over week lower trading volumes. Maybe it needs to continue to follow this trend to fill the remaining gaps before we see any meaningful reversal. As always thanks for your follows, likes, and comments. Let’s learn and grow together. Cheers!
CME:BTC1!Short
by MoneyFishing
2