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BTC1! short idea with open gap fill and catching a quick longAs you might know, open gaps have a fill-rate of 90-95%. Additionally the open CME-gap (1W-basis) has much confluence with important technical levels for support and it lies in the middle of two zones where enormous amounts of USDT-inflows came into the market. 1. the 2024-range (Q1 - Q3) 2. the 2025-range (Q1 at least) Where the new neckline also is, the new support that became resistance appeared. It might also be a good strike for smart money to know that above the biggest orderblock of 2024 support has developed more strength and consequence. So why you don't give it a try to retest it? Here a maximum of buying pressure should lead to a strong bounce of BTCUSD towards a new alltime-high, if and as long as global liquidity rises again. But if not, at least inflation should do half of the bullish job for BTCUSD and a "sideways up" would be my - historically BIASed - expectation. It begins with a shorter short. In the end it might be a very, very quick longer long because of my expectation of rising buying pressure with huge volume delta for the bulls below 78k.
CME:BTC1!
by BossmodeInvestments
2
Strong attractor to $BTC price around 88kWe can see a beautiful confluence of technicals around 88k 1- Blue dotted line; multiyear (since 2021) strong resistence trend 2- Orange dashed line; recently reseted volume-weighted average price 3- Green tick line; exponential moving average from last 200 12h periods 4- Purple arrow down; target from shoulder-derivated triangle 5- Green fine line; important multiyear Fibonacci-circle level If this important resistence made of lots of confluences doesn´t hold, we will see the CME gap closed after price plunges to the marked orange square
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by CCCLopes
Let's talk about CME📈In most cases, BTC is likely to move upward and fill the green CME gap section. This could lead to significant movements in altcoins, potentially triggering the next phase of the bull run and the start of an alt season. 📉However, in the worst-case scenario, if BTC breaks the critical $90K support zone, we could expect a continuous downturn, possibly filling the red CME gap. If this second scenario unfolds, altcoins are likely to experience substantial losses, and the first stage of the alt season may be missed. 📌In the first scenario, if the alt season starts BTC will continuously try to breaks the $90K super support zone. Setting stop losses becomes very important at this stage.
CME:BTC1!Long
by C-Squad
CYCLE 4 | CME GAP: Bull Cycle Period First Major Pull Back?Quick post to address BTCs expected potential first major pull back into this bull run period... BULL MARKET PULL BACKS Historically, BTC during its bull market enjoys pull back which ranged from 15% to as much as 30%-40% in prior markets. This is essential for trader participants in the market to take profits, allow BTC to retest low levels and prove new heights are sustainable before ranging to new higher price levels. The first pull back historically for BTC post the start of the 'Bull Run' phase of BTCs 4 year cycle is traditionally the largest pull back opportunity and historically been the best short term buying opportunity in the Bull Run (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE). We can expect a 30-40% correction for this pull back based on historic bull market period examples (Let me know in the comments below if you would like me to detail consistent price behaviour during BTC bull run periods in a future post). ARE WE AT THIS POINT NOW OF THE CYCLE? WHAT ARE THE INDICATORS SAYING? As highlighted by the RED arrow on the chart, a number of the indicators like to monitor on the weekly chat are suggesting bearish divergences and fading momentum exists with the current price action. This is calling for a cooling off period of the market. CME GAP Historically, BTC has had a tendency to want to 'close' open gap, created by weekend trading of BTC that does not align with equities that follow the traditional 'No Trading' over the weekend policy of Traditional Financial instruments. Hence crypto ETFs which align with these policies (such as the CME Futures chart as seen in this chart) can create 'GAP' between the open (Monday) and close (Friday) candles. To understand CME gaps, please take the time to review the details discussion in the earlier post. The orange BOX shows the below CME gap target that BTC price may range towards to close. NOTE: this box has been listed as Partially Closed as the open Monday candle of the gap did go below before rising during the weekly candle but did no dip past the close of the previous weekly candle. 21W EMA & 20W SMA Historically, a fully developed healthy bull market for BTC has required periodic retesting and holding of these moving averages. A close of the CME gap at this point of the market would also satisfy this historic trend for BTC. ORANGE TREND LINE Bears if eager to continue the 'close the CME gap' trend will need to convince the market by first exceeding the orange trend line. Currently this allows BTC to complete a 10 to 12% correction while also taking the price below the key psychological 100K price level, without phasing the bulls conviction to charger higher. * Holding the Orange Trend Line Scenario: we want to see price bounce and conviction from the bulls to push BTC to higher highs. The goal for Bears would be to achieve the measured move up to 180K. This would most potentially shorted the bull run (time prospective) and potentially cap our ATH for this cycle early; creating a distribution zone similar to the 2021 cycle top. * Breaking below the Orange Trend Line Scenario: If we break the Orange Trend Line then Bulls will concede ground to the MA levels (allowing the CME gap to also close). Bulls will write this off as a market reset and holding support at these levels will entice Traders to take positions needed to drive BTC up sustainably to the next higher level(s). Losing the MAs would ask serious questions to the intent of BULLs and the sustainability of the market moving forward this bull run.....
CME:BTC1!
by Brodie
Mean Reversion CME GAP at FOMC -> Pump until BOJ Rate DecissionHello guys! I will share a mean reversion idea on Bitcoin with you today. I expect Bitcoin to close the CME Gap, that got made at the beginning of the week. Currently we are very close to starting the recovery process. The CME Gap closing aligns very good with a mean reversion to the 50EMA on the 4hr timeframe. This could be an indication for a trend continuation of Bitcoin to the upside until friday when the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will decide their rate policy. We will look into the chart from a new perspective on friday so take this trade idea as a short term one. I mentioned in the chart that we have an unrecovered pink vector candle at the top. This could be an good area to aim for in the reversal process to take profit. With good execution this could be an good trade from 102k to 108k. Me personal, I don't think we will see a rate cut and if so only a small one. So nothing that will shake the markets to hard. I hope. Trade SAFE!
CME:BTC1!Long
by reports20netrust
False move monday on BitcoinWe are currently sitting at the EMA50 on the 4hr timeframe. It looks like we are doint a mean reversion here again. The top was quick and formed a wick but I couldn't finde any vector candle that could be liquidity pools to recover. We also have a CME GAP at $54.2k which will be recovered soon in my opinion. We had the retest of the $58k level which was very important but I expected it to happen on wednesday. Lets observe price action but my observation leans towards shorting.
CME:BTC1!Short
by reports20netrust
Ethereum - CME Gap yet to be filled#ETH/USDT #Analysis Description --------------------------------------------------------------- + As shown in the chart, the Bitcoin CME futures gap is still unfilled. + This gap was created during the sudden market crash driven by recession fears. + Historically, 90% of CME gaps get filled sooner or later, and we expect the same outcome in this case. + Currently, the ETH price is around the support zone, and it appears to have recovered after hitting this level. + It's likely this gap will be filled in September, as it is typically a bearish month, but it should certainly be filled before the end of October. --------------------------------------------------------------- Enhance, Trade, Grow --------------------------------------------------------------- Feel free to share your thoughts and insights. Don't forget to like and follow us for more trading ideas and discussions. Best Regards, VectorAlgo
CME:ETH1!Long
by VectorAlgo
BTC is filling the CME Gap. Bullish or Bearish?Hello Traders, In this video, I dive deep into the current market landscape, focusing on several key aspects that are crucial for developing our trading strategies. First, we'll discuss the CME Gap and explore how this gap might influence market movements. Next, we take a closer look at the trend direction and analyze how it has evolved in recent days and what it could mean for upcoming trading opportunities. I'll show you how to identify the trend and incorporate it into your strategy. Another essential topic we'll cover is confirmations: I'll explain how to ensure that your trade is on solid ground and how to avoid unnecessary risks. Finally, I present two different trade ideas and share my expectations for these setups. You'll learn about the scenarios I envision and how I plan to respond to various market developments. Join me as we delve into chart analysis and learn how to apply this information to your own trades!
by SerenityEquity
1
BTC is approaching its bottom in the 51k areaIt seems that BTC is approaching its bottom in the 51k area, as seen from several indicators including: 1. Fibo 0.618 (goldenratio) correction from impulsive wave from January to March 2. Major support at 51k has not been visited since February 3. Finishing ABCDE correction wave 4. Bottom trendline descending channel formed since March 5. Liquidity heatmap is around 51k 6. CME gap at 58k has been filled, and another gap has emerged above in the 59.5k - 62k area 7. Fear and greed at 26 (FEAR)
CME:BTC1!Long
by wahing19
$BTC may do something like this in this week#bitcoin #btc price is heading to fill CME CRYPTOCAP:BTC futures gap at ~58K while weekly close is approaching. Oscillators will likely turn "Oversold" less than in a day and market may be dipped in around CME gap price. #Stock markets already turned oversold and local dips happened. Whilst a favorable aspect for financial markets is approaching: Sun will sextile Jupiter, the planet of fortune and wealth, i expect markets to go up all the week from now on (Today is new moon, the pivot day). But, beware. This will likely be a relief rally, a bull trap... It's better to be in low risk assets in second half of August. Avoid high risks. Not financial advice.
by naphyse
Bitcoin's Resilience Amidst Bear Market: A Technical Outlook 📊"DISCLAIMER!! This is a 'worst-case' scenario/theory which is still bullish. Bitcoin also has a "monthly bearish-divergence on monthly, which would be the first time this has printed on the Bitcoin: INDEX chart. Also there are other variables such as black-swans/wars, CME-GAP, Declining volume on this whole 'rally' up. Also the first time Bitcoin has made a new all-time-high before a halving.(Blackrock-manipulation(prolonging bear-market-rally) "" "My current theoretical analysis suggests Bitcoin is testing a breakout from the cyclical triangle pattern observed in the last market cycle. If confirmed, this could signal the end of the bear market. There are speculations that BlackRock may have engaged in strategic market activities, potentially inflating Bitcoin's value to create a bullish sentiment during a bear market rally. This orchestrated optimism is believed to have sustained the price levels." Revisiting Triangular Patterns: A Classic Continuation? 🔺✨ Bitcoin's recent price actions suggest a retest of the structural integrity within a macro triangular pattern. Despite the bearish sentiments, the chart displays a potential 'higher low,' indicating an underlying strength. This scenario, if supported by volume and market participation, could signal the tapering off of the bear market. Black Swan Events and Market Dynamics 🦢🔄 The term 'Black swans' references unforeseen events with substantial market impact. The chart alludes to such events as pivotal in Bitcoin's trajectory, though it's critical to recognize that market manipulation allegations like those suggested against Black Rock require substantial evidence and are beyond technical analysis purview. Bullish Sentiments and Market Manipulation Claims 📈⚖️ While the narrative of market manipulation can influence short-term price movements, long-term trends in Bitcoin have shown resilience to such factors. The claim that bullish sentiments have artificially sustained prices is challenging to substantiate without concrete data. Higher-Low: The Bullish Bastion ⬆️🛡️ The chart points to a 'higher-low' formation, a classic bullish signal. This pattern reflects buyers stepping in at higher price levels than previous lows, suggesting an upward momentum. Bear Market Exit: A Technically Supported Theory? 🐻🔚 The conclusion that Bitcoin is testing the last cycle's triangle apex could be indicative of a bear market conclusion. However, this would need validation through other indicators like moving averages, RSI, and MACD, beyond the scope of the current visual data. Takeaway: Analyzing the Apex 🎯📝 Bitcoin's endurance of a macro 'higher-low' amidst a bearish cycle suggests optimism. However, reliance on a single pattern or market rumors for prediction is precarious. A holistic technical analysis, incorporating diverse indicators and market sentiment, provides a more robust framework for future price movement speculation. Conclusion: Informed Caution Is Key 🔍🔑 While the theory presents an optimistic case for Bitcoin, prudent investors should seek confirmation through a broad technical lens, mindful of market volatility and the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies. 📈 Please note: This analysis does not constitute financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Always conduct thorough research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Shibunacci