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CME Bitcoin Futures Breakout! 28,000 Next?From May12 - June 12, CME Bitcoin Futures saw a support level of ~28,000, which was broken on June 12 with a GAP lower. We have recently seen a CONSOLODATION PENNANT, formed with higher lows, and lower highs! Higher lows: ~18,500 June 30, ~18,830 July 13, ~20,700 July 26. The UPTREND line is drawn from ~18,830 to~20,700. Lower highs: ~24,300 July20, ~23350 July 22, ~23,000 July 27. The DOWNTREND line is drawn from all 3. The BREAKOUT occurred once the CME Bitcoin Futures broke through ~23,000! How to measure upside potential after a BREAKOUT of a PENNANT: Calculate the distance from the widest point, and add to the BREAKOUT point. This would give us ~28,800. Why is ~28,800 significant? THIS WOULD FILL THE GAP MADE ON JUNE 12! GAPS tend to be filled before a market makes a pivot! Takeaways: Previous SUPPORT of ~28,000 is now new RESISTANCE. This is going to be a difficult level to chew through! Possible STOP levels for longs: ~21,500 (continuation of UPTREND line of PENNANT. ~Uptrend will be violated if ~20,700 is broken with conviction. This would now be a lower low, which is the definition of a DOWNTREND. FEEL FREE TO REACH OUT WITH ANY TECHNICAL ANALSYS OR FUTURES QUESTIONS! WE APPRECIATE OUR FOLLOWERS! LIKE/COMMENT/FOLLOW! ❤️
CME:BTC1!Long
by Paul_Wankmueller
CME SEP 22 WTI CRUDE OIL FUTURES DAILY CANDLE SUPPORT ANALYSISThis is a Sep 2022 (designated by the letter U in symbology) CME WTI Cl Futures chart. This is the first in a series, which is a Daily Chart describing SUPPORT levels. The second will be a more granular chart showing possible upside targets if the SUPPORT holds. We had quite the failure on Friday, reaching ~$102.00 intraday, and falling ever since. The large "wick" on top of the candle designates the bulls lost control by the end of the day. So what now? Bulls are searching for support levels to hang on to any chance of a reversal back into any area north of ~$100. SUPPORT levels are defined as areas where there are more people bidding (buyers), than there are people willing to hit those bids (sellers at market). Think of it as a floor made of ice (bidders) that needs 10 people (sellers) trying to jump on it, in order for it to break. If only 9 people are jumping, it will not break. Yet if there are 10, there will now be a hole that each subsequent person will fall through. **Each ice floor has a different thickness (number of bidders), and needs a different amount of people jumping (sellers willing to hit that bid at market) to break it.** Since March 29, we have seen strong SUPPORT in the ~$90.00-~91.00 area. This is seen by the horizontal yellow lines. Even though CL broke through this area on July 14, making a low of $88.23, by the end of the day the bulls gained control, closing at $92.83. (It rallied ~$12.00 in the following 3 days) In order to show a strong conviction of breaking a SUPPORT level, traders look for it to CLOSE below a SUPPORT level. Bulls on Thursday, August 4, 2022 are going to rely on the supply of bidders to outweigh the supply of people hitting these levels. Up Trendlines are another way to show SUPPORT levels. They are drawn from lows. (The more times this up trendline is touched, the more likely it is said to be strong. Using the lows of March 15-17 (~$85.50-~$86.00) connected to the low of July 14 ($88.23 which is a higher low), we can see the extension of this line reaching the ~$88.50-$89.00 level through the end of this trading week. This is one of the last Support levels for the bulls. After a SUPPORT level is broken, traders look to previous lows for the next area of support. This would be the lows of March 15-17 (~$85.50-~$86.00), and finally the lows made on Feb 15-17 (~$81.00). TO SUMMARIZE: Traders looking to get long have the following SUPPORT levels to be aware of. If Level 1 is broken, the odds are in favor for Level 2 be reached. Level 2 broken, Level 3 is likely to be reached, ect. The risk to reward trade favors the longs against these levels, IF YOU KEEP A TIGHT STOP. **REMEMBER** A CLOSE below these levels holds more significance than an intraday break. FEEL FREE TO DM ME ABOUT ANYTHING TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RELATED! EDUCATION IS OUR SPECIALTY! PLEASE COMMENT, LIKE, FOLLOW! WE LOVE OUR AUDIENCE! SUPPORT LEVEL 1: ~$90.00-$91.00 SUPPORT LEVEL 2: ~$88.50-$89.00 SUPPORT LEVEL 3: ~85.50-$86.00 SUPPORT LEVEL 4: ~$81.00 -Paul Wankmueller, CMT Director of Content @ Blue Line Futures
NYMEX:CLU2022
by Paul_Wankmueller
A Tale of Two Americas CME:LE1! The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released July non-farm payrolls on August 5th and July Consumer Price Index (CPI) on August 10th. Both reports beat market expectations. About 528,000 new jobs were created in July, well above June level. Annualized Inflation was lowered to 8.5% from the record 9.1% in June. While strong jobs data and taming inflation show the resilience of US economy, worrying signs are emerging. There are strikingly different faces of America: 1) People with jobs and those without; 2) Financially sound public companies and struggling small businesses; 3) Commodity prices that are under control, and those still flying high. July Non-farm Payrolls According to the Census Bureau, US population was 332 million in January 2022. Civilian Labor Force data reported by the BLS was 164 million in July, 49% of total population. It appears that the non-farm report shows us only half of the country. America: People with Jobs Total number of non-farm employees was 158 million in July. Of the half-million new jobs created, Leisure & Hospitality contributed to 96,000 (18%), while retail, wholesale, transportation, and warehousing together accounted for 42,000 (8%). Service-sector jobs tend to be low-pay, part-time and/or without benefits. Health care and Government created 70,000 (13%) and 57,000 (11%) new jobs, respectively. Since 2020, the Federal government has spent trillions to fight the pandemic and rescue the economy. These jobs were funded by budget, not by growing demand of a free market. Although American consumers continue to support the economy, low-income earners are struggling with rising costs of housing, food, transportation, and household necessity. America: People without Jobs Officially, the U.S. had 5.7 million unemployed persons in July. It is very misleading. According to the July report, “The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was 5.9 million in July. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.” If we take both into consideration, the total number of unemployed people would be 11.6 million, with real unemployment rate at 6.8%. Additionally, more than half of the population is not included in the labor force, who count children, housewives, retirees, military members, adult students, and US citizens living abroad among them. People without jobs still have living expenses. They may be supported by working family members, government programs, or charities. They are the most vulnerable when the economy turns south. Retirees with fixed income are also being hit hard. With rising price, they sometimes must make the hard choice between food, medicine, and filling up the gas tank. Now, let’s turn our focus to American businesses. American Business: Public Companies From the pandemic triggered selloff in March 2020, the S&P 500 rebounded and doubled its value to 4800 last December. In 2022, the index was down 24% in the first six months. It has since recovered half the losses, down just 11% year-to-date as of August 10th. Based on data compiled by Liberated Stock Trader, these 500 publicly traded companies employed 28 million people worldwide. Walmart (WMT) is the biggest employer with a 2.3 million workforce. Amazon (AMZN) came in 2nd, with 1.3 million employees. On average, S&P component companies have 56,000 employees. With the ability to produce and distribute their products around the world, Big Businesses could withstand the impact of higher cost or adverse policy better than most companies. According to WSJ data, as of August 5th, the trailing 12-month Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E) is 22.6 for S&P 500. Forward P/E is 18.2. Market expects S&P component companies to have lower earnings, but the impact of pending recession is not very significant. American Business: Private Companies Let’s start off by saying that I do not have comprehensive research on private businesses. Since most readers could only invest in the secondary market, we could use the Small-Cap Russell 2000 index as a proxy to mainstream American businesses. Russell has a YTD return of -12%, about 1% below the S&P. In the past five years, Russell underperformed S&P by 28%. Small-Cap stock performance is especially weak at time of market turmoil. A big difference is in the P/E ratio. Russell has a trailing P/E of 68.9, but the forward P/E sharply drops to 22.6. In good times, Small-Cap stock price have been inflated a lot more than the Blue-Chip. I expect their price to deflate faster in the pending recession. July CPI Data July CPI is unchanged from June month over month (M/M), and up 8.5% year over year (Y/Y). Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is up 0.3% M/M and +5.9% Y/Y. Diving in the data by commodity category shows a different picture. Food: Up 1.1% M/M in July from 1.0% in June. Annualized food inflation is now 10.9%. Energy: Down 4.6% M/M, of which, gasoline, -4.6%; diesel, -4.7%; natural gas, -3.6%. Annualized energy inflation remains uncomfortably high at +33%. Gasoline price is 45% higher Y/Y after 50 days of consecutive price cuts. Commodities (excluding food and energy): Up 0.2% M/M and 7.0% Y/Y. CPI data M/M and Y/Y for selected products is: New cars, +0.6% and +10.4%; Used cars, -0.4% and +6.6%; Clothing, -0.1% and 5.1%; Pharmaceuticals, +0.6% and +3.7%. Services (excluding energy): Up 0.4% M/M and 5.5% Y/Y. CPI data M/M and Y/Y for selected service categories is: Housing, +0.5% and +5.7%; Transportation, -0.5% and +9.2%; Medical, +0.4% and +5.1%. Overall, inflation is lower in July only because the sharp decline in energy prices offset the price gains in food, housing, new cars and medicine . Investors' thrill in the stock market may be gone when they go the supermarkets after work. There are signs that consumers are downgrading their food purchases in the face of runaway inflation. Firstly, people tend to give up dining out in favor of cooking at home to save money. In July, food at home inflation was +1.3% M/M and +13% Y/Y. Price inflation for food consumed away from home increased at a slower pace, up 0.7% M/M and 7.6% Y/Y. There is a 5.5% spread, which impacts food spending at these two segments. Secondly, meat purchases show an apparent shift toward less expensive options. In July, beef price inflated 3.4% Y/Y, while pork was up 7.6% and chicken up 17.6%. Within each meat category, lower cost products also show higher inflation, indicating more demand. For example, ground beef was up 9.7% Y/Y, while steak price was down 1.5%! Bearish Trade Ideas With the headwind facing American economy, I think that a recession is inevitable. Based on the above analysis, I recommend shorting the Russell 2000. A 60+ P/E is too rich a valuation. The index could crash harder than S&P during an economic downturn. We could consider shorting the CME Micro E-Mini Russell 2000 December contract (M2KZ2) . Each contract is $5 x Index. At current quote of 1,974, each contract has a notional value of $9,870. CME requires initial margin of $550. Another idea is on beef prices. American consumer generally eats more beef while dining out. With the shift to cooking at home and buying cheaper meat, I expect beef prices to fall faster than pork price during a recession. We could short the CME Live Cattle December contract (LEZ2) . Each contract is 40,000 pounds of cattle. At current quote of 150.575, each contract has a notional value of $60,230. CME requires initial margin of $1,600. The futures market is extremely volatile this year. Getting an information edge increases your odd of success. I suggest my readers to subscribe to CME market data. TradingView users already have access to delayed data. A Pro user could upgrade to real-time CME market data for only $4 a month, a huge discount at the time of high inflation. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME:LE1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
5
In Search of an Edge for Non-Professional TradersCBOT:ZW1! What do Gold, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat have in common? Their prices all go up in a global crisis. In other words, these strategically important commodities are positively correlated with the level of risk. “Risk Up, Price Up; and Risk Down, Price Down”. Everyday non-professional traders (NonProfs) usually have a disadvantage trading these futures contracts. Let’s see who we are up against: • Commercial Firms, including producers, processors, merchants, and major users of the underlying commodities. • Financial Institutions, such as investment banks, hedge funds, asset managers, proprietary trading firms, commodity trading advisors and futures commission merchants. These professional traders (Profs) have industry knowledge, market information, research capabilities, trading technologies, high-speed and seemingly unlimited amount of money. They contribute to about 80% of trading volume for a typical futures contract. So, what could you do in an uphill battle? Recall our Three-Factor Commodity Pricing Model( ): Commodities Futures Price = Intrinsic Value + Market Sentiment + Global Crisis Premium In peaceful times, the coefficient of Crisis Premium is zero. The Profs win out easily. When a global crisis breaks out, price pattern may be altered completely. The chart illustrates how CBOT Wheat Futures behaves before and after the start of Russia-Ukraine conflict. Based on Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), a baseline futures price reflects all information regarding the Intrinsic Value and Market Sentiment factors. However, the Crisis Premium is unknown to all of us. The Profs could not use fundamental analysis or technical analysis to gain a better understanding of Mr. Putin’s mindset. Few had inside information of the inner working of the Kremlin or the Russian generals, either. Your guesses are just as good as the Profs when it comes to what’s happening next. An analogue: In a close-range hand combat, the Profs have no use for their arsenal of missiles, fighter jets and tanks. NonPros with limited resources are on an equal footing to trade against the Profs. It’s critical to pick a fight that you have a chance to win. Recall that we discussed how to define global crisis with binary outcomes, and select financial instruments based on their responses to those outcomes. ( ) For CBOT Wheat Futures, Ukraine conflict has become the dominant price driver since February 14th. But after four months, we still have no clue when or how the war could end. Let’s define it in two simple outcomes: War and Peace. The first one includes all scenarios that the war would continue or intensify, where the second one could be a peace deal or a victory in favor of either Russia of Ukraine. As a NonProf, you don’t want to dive deep into the impossible task of forecasting the different scenarios. Keep it simple: War = Risk Up, Peace = Risk Down. The probability of either outcome is real. It’s difficult to predict which one is more likely. Therefore, directional trades of Long or Short are both risky. Many event shocks exist to make the wheat price fluctuate. If a major wheat producing country announces an export ban, wheat price could fly because of global market shortage. However, a phone call between Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelenskyy could punch wheat price to the ground. Russia is the No. 1 wheat exporter. An end of the conflict could end the sanctions against Russia and increase global supply by 44 million tons of wheat. Looking back in 2018 and 2019, we know how strongly Gold Futures reacted to a call between the U.S. and China. A Long Strangle options strategy may be appropriate under these circumstances. Investor would purchase a Call and a Put option with a different strike price: an out-of-the-money (OTM) call option and an OTM put option simultaneously on the same wheat futures contract. This is based on my belief that wheat futures price could experience a very large movement, but I am unsure of which direction the move will take. The following is an illustration (not an actual trading strategy): September Wheat Futures (ZWU2) is quoted at $10.54/bushel on June 14th. An OTM call with a $12.00 strike price is quoted at 17 cents. An OTM put with a $9.00 strike price is quoted at 4.625 cents. Look at the chart again, you will see wheat price at $7.80 right before the war and up to $13.70 in early March. A Long Strangle will cost $1,081.25, as each call and put contract is based on 5,000 bushels of Chicago wheat. This is the maximum amount you would lose if wheat price stuck at current level in the next two months. A big move, either up or down, could make one of the two trades profitable, and hopefully with enough profit margins to cover the other losing trade. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CBOT:ZW1!
by JimHuangChicago
4
2 Steps in Drawing a Downtrend Channel A buying strategy in a downtrend. How to identify buying opportunity in a downtrend? Not my preference to buy in a downtrend, but that does not mean we should avoid it when buying opportunity arises. Recognizing it is a downtrend, we keep our buy position short-term; as we are going against the trend. Discussion: Rules in constructing a downtrend parallel trendline Rule 1 – First the downtrend line Rule 2 – Then, its parallel Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CBOT_MINI:MYM1!Education
by konhow
39
Downward impulse confirmed on CME. CMEGoals 229, 222. Invalidation at 255. We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe
NASDAQ:CMEShort
by Rykin_Capital
82k Bitcoin is coming!?As you see bitcoin is closely going out of this weekly triangle, BUT... . 1- We know CME gap for bitcoin is around 48k, so it should be filled. after filling we expect a little correction that can be bearish! 2- We know summer's holidays here! so for next week fund providers will start working again and inject money into the market! so far, a little bearish market is predictable! 3- Look at the RSI and SQUEEZE MOMENTUM. In RSI we see a pullback onto the trend line is shaping. In SQUEEZE MOMENTUM at least we need 1 more bearish candle to come. so again a little bearish market! . NOW, after all these corrections and bounces I expect BTC to break the triangle from above and grow as the size of our triangle that can see around 80k! God bless
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Alex-HKM
2
BTC! CME Futures - when are going to close the gap?What Is a Gap? A gap is an area discontinuity in a security's chart where its price either rises or falls from the previous day’s close with no trading occurring in between. Gaps are common when news causes market fundamentals to change during hours when markets are typically closed, for instance an earnings call after-hours. KEY TAKEAWAYS -A gap is a discontinuous space in the price chart of an asset or security, often occurring between trading hours. -There four different types of gaps – Common Gaps, Breakaway Gaps, Runaway Gaps, and Exhaustion Gaps - each with its own signal to traders. -Gaps are easy to spot, but determining the type of gap is much harder to figure out. What Does A Gap Tell You? Gaps typically occur when a piece of news or an event causes a flood of buyers or sellers into the security. It results in the price opening significantly higher or lower than the previous day’s closing price. Depending on the kind of gap, it could indicate either the start of a new trend or a reversal of a previous trend. Gapping occurs when the price of a security or asset opens well above or below the previous day’s close with no trading activity in between. Partial gapping occurs when the opening price is higher or lower than the previous day’s close but within the previous day’s price range. Full gapping occurs when the open is outside of the previous day’s range. Gapping, especially a full gap, shows a strong shift in sentiment occurred overnight.
CME:BTC1!
by Yuriy_Bishko
11
CME Cheat Sheet 2021CME Group Futures Dates: Dec 2020 BTCZ20 16 Dec 2019 > 24 Dec 2020 Settlement: 28 Dec 2020 - Jan 2021 BTCF21 03 Aug 2020 > 29 Jan 2021 Settlement: 01 Feb 2021 - Feb 2021 BTCG21 31 Aug 2020 > 26 Feb 2021 Settlement: 01 Mar 2021 - Mar 2021 BTCH21 28 Sep 2020 > 26 Mar 2021 Settlement: 29 Mar 2021 - Apr 2021 BTCJ21 02 Nov 2020 > 30 Apr 2021 Settlement: 03 May 2021 - May 2021 BTCK21 30 Nov 2020 > 28 May 2021 Settlement: 01 Jun 2021 - Jun 2021 BTCM21 28 Dec 2020 > 25 Jun 2021 Settlement: 28 Jun 2021 - Dec 2021 BTCZ21 30 Dec 2019 > 31 Dec 2021 Settlement: 03 Jan 2022 - Dec 2022 BTCZ22 28 Dec 2020 > 30 Dec 2022 Settlement: 03 Jan 2023 - Source: www.cmegroup.com CME Bitcoin Gaps Study: marketsscience.com CME Futures Info: www.cmegroup.com CME Futures Open Interest Info: www.cmegroup.com Indicator To Track CME Sunday Opens:
CME:BTC1!Education
by The_Paradoxed_Prophet
1