Pre-Market Update: CMMB - Breakout on NewsOverview
Looking for an incoming buy-in opportunity on APO - Apollo around the $158-$160 range by mid-February. This setup aligns with a potential longer-term hold and a continuation back to its previous all-time highs (ATHs). If it follows an incremental climb higher, this could yield a 19-20%+ gain, with even more potential if it surpasses those ATHs. The technical and fundamental setup is looking highly favorable.
Technical Analysis:
Trend and Breakout Potential:
APO is currently attempting to break out of a descending trendline (red line) following its recent pullback. The price action suggests the $158–$160 zone will act as strong support, which also aligns with the broader upward green trendline visible in the chart.
Moving Averages as Support:
The price action is converging near key moving averages, which could act as dynamic support zones. A potential bounce from this region is supported by historical performance around these levels.
Volume Analysis:
Recent volume spikes around critical price zones indicate heightened institutional interest, reinforcing the potential for a reversal or sustained breakout.
Fibonacci Levels:
The $158-$160 range also aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, a critical zone watched by institutional traders. This provides an added layer of confidence in the identified support.
Risk/Reward Setup
With a potential entry around $158, targeting the ATH of $193 provides a compelling risk-to-reward ratio. A stop-loss placed around $150 ensures the risk is well-managed, with an estimated R:R exceeding 2:1.
Fundamental Analysis
Apollo Global Management’s solid fundamentals further support the case for a long-term hold:
Fundamental Analysis
Apollo Global Management’s strong fundamentals reinforce the case for a long-term hold:
Earnings Per Share (EPS): $8.28 (trailing twelve months), reflecting a YoY growth of 141.45%, showcasing the company’s robust profitability rebound.
Dividends Per Share: $1.72 (TTM), with a YoY growth of 6.98%, indicating steady shareholder returns and dividend stability.
Strong Historical Growth: Apollo has demonstrated significant earnings resilience, recovering from a loss in 2022 (-$3.43) to positive EPS in 2023 ($8.28).
Sector Outlook: As a leading asset management firm, Apollo is well-positioned to benefit from market trends favoring alternative investments, which are expected to grow substantially over the coming years.
Upcoming Catalysts
Keep an eye on any earnings reports or significant corporate announcements that could act as catalysts for the next leg higher. These events may also validate the technical setup and the expected rebound.
Conclusion
APO is setting up for a strong rebound from the $158–$160 level, with technical, volume, and fundamental indicators all pointing towards a bullish continuation. The upside potential back to the ATH of $193 represents a significant gain, making this a great opportunity for a longer-term hold. The setup is looking excellent for patient investors.
