CHINA A50 Buy signal couldn't have gone any better!Last time we looked at the China A50 index (CN50) was almost 2 months ago (September 06, see chart below) when we called for a buy opportunity:
As you can see, it couldn't have gone any better as the price rebounded exactly on our mark, hitting our 12100 Target in a matter of days.
Now the index is on a relief consolidation following this enormous rally that broke above the nearly 4-year Channel Down. Every time we had a similar bullish break-out, the market reached at least its 2.0 Fibonacci extension level. As a result, we expect to see 19500 by mid 2025.
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Cn50signals
CHINA A50 Rebound expected.The China A50 index (CN50) eventually closed below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) last time we looked into it (June 14, see chart below) and hit our 11800 downside Target:
The long-term pattern remains bearish in the form of a Falling Wedge, but right now we expect a medium-term counter-trend rebound similar to the one that followed the May 30 2023 Low and reached the 0.236 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, we turn bullish on this index, targeting 12350 (0.236 Fib and top of the Falling Wedge).
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CHINA A50 on the 1W MA100 after 2.5 years! Ultimate Bull test!When we looked at the China A50 index (CN50) last year (December 21 2023, see chart below), we got the best buy entry possible on more than 1 year span:
Our long-term Target at the time of 13000 is almost hit but it now time to re-evaluate our perspective as the index not only hit the top of its almost 2-year Falling Wedge but more importantly made contact with the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time in almost 2.5 years (since the week of December 28 2021).
This is the ultimate test for the Chinese market. A closing above that Resistance cluster, will turn us bullish again, targeting the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) at 14250. Until that closing happens, we turn bearish on the medium-term, targeting 11850 (just above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level).
It has to be mentioned that the 1W RSI has already made a bullish break-out above its 3-year Lower Highs trend-line, potentially hinting finally towards a long-term trend change to bullish.
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CHINA A50: Make or break time on the 1W MA50.The China A50 index (CN50) is giving us excellent return on our bullish position since our last post (December 21 2023, see chart below), even though it hasn't reached the 13000 Target:
It is time to take profits on this amazing rally as the index has hit and got rejected twice already on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). This is a sign of weak momentum and as long as it fails to close a 1W candle above the 1W MA50, we are bearish towards the 0.382 Fibonacci at 11700. If it does manage to close above it though, we will take the loss and buy instead, targeting the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) at 12700.
Note that the 1W MA100 has been intact as a Resistance since the week of December 28 2021, so if broken the index will enter a new long-term Bull Cycle. Notice also the Lower Highs on the RSI. This week we may have a break-out, the first sign of an upcoming long-term Bull Cycle.
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CHINA A50: Time to buy Chinese stocks.The China A50 index (CN50) has been trading within a Falling Wedge pattern since July 2022 and more recently in particular hasn't been able to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since September 08. That bearish sentiment may be coming to an end as the 1D MACD is about to form a new Bullish Cross in the same order as the November 01 2022 Low.
This could be the bottom (Lower Low) of the Falling Wedge and the start of the new Bullish Leg towards the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, as the January 28 2023 High did. We are now buyers on this index, targeting the top of the Falling Wedge at 13000.
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CHINA A50: Chinese stocks are the buy opportunity of a decade.The China A50 index (CN50) is trading within a Falling Wedge pattern and on the larger picture a Channel Up with its Higher Highs being on June 09 2015 and February 16 2021. The price is now closer to the Channel Up bottom and the pricing of a new long-term Higher Low (bottom), which already makes it a great buy opportunity. Of course the most optimal level to enter would be as close to the bottom as possible, especially of the 1W RSI makes one more Higher Low on its Triangle.
We have seen the very same 1W RSI Triangle in November 2012 - February 2014, when the index was within a similar Falling Wedge. The same RSI Bullish Divergence (Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows) eventually caused the March 18 2014 rebound. This is why the most optimal level to buy would be on the (current) RSI Higher Lows. If that isn't materialized, we will enter when the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) breaks, which will be a bullish break-out confirmation. In either case, our long-term target is the 2.382 Fibonacci extension level at 23000.
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