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Just a quick note on the outlook for Chinese yuan futures...Exploring the "Condor" : A Look at the Chinese Yuan Futures In the realm of option trading, the term "Condor" refers not to a bird of prey, but to an intricate options strategy known for its non-directional nature. This strategy, aptly named after the wide-winged condor, involves positioning four options at once, aiming to profit from low volatility in the underlying asset. The essence of the Condor strategy lies in its ability to limit both gains and losses, creating a balanced risk-reward scenario for traders who anticipate movement and price consolidation before expiration date in certain market range. Recently, a significant portfolio was recorded on the CME exchange, with an expiration date set for October 4, 2024. This portfolio is noteworthy not only for its size but also for the expectations of its owner. The belief is that the price of the Chinese yuan futures will hover between 7.25 and 7.45, a range. The implications of this portfolio are manifold. For one, it reflects a sentiment that could influence other traders' strategies and market expectations. Additionally, it highlights the importance of understanding options strategies like the Condor, which can be pivotal in navigating the Forex market, especially when dealing with currencies like the Chinese yuan. As we look ahead, we will undoubtedly keep a close eye on this portfolio, analyzing its performance from the yuan's impact. Forex Traders might (better say "should") consider this a bellwether for future movements, making it a focal point for those looking to gauge market sentiment.
Long
by ClashChartsTeam
A stronger yuan could spell trouble for USD/JPYA downtrend has formed on USD/CNH since it failed to retest the 2022 high in September. Since then, a lower high, aggressive selloff and a bearish continuation pattern (rising wedge) has formed on the daily chart. The rising wedge projects a downside target towards the cycle lows ~7.1. If the yuan continues to depreciated (lower USD/CNH), it could prompt other Asian currencies such as the Japanese yen to also depreciate, in order to remain competitive with trade. And as USD/JPY is approaching 152 - a level it failed to test due to BOJ intervention (and subsequent concerns of another intervention) - there's a reasonable chance that USD/JPY may struggle to break above 152. For now, USD/CNH looks ripe for a move lower given the double top / rising wedge around the 50% retracement level, and bearish momentum picking up. Bears could have a stop above the cycle highs and target the lows around 7.1. But if the Fed begin to drop dovish clues further out, it could also break below 7.1 and head for 7.0.
Short
by CityIndex
CNY! Happy Chinese New Year! PEPPERSTONE:USDCNH Oh, I cannot contain my excitement for this year's Chinese New Year of "Dragon"! 🐉 I mean, who wouldn't be absolutely thrilled to experience the exact same joyous celebrations as last year? And guess what? The depreciation trend of CNY? Oh, it's not going to miraculously reverse itself, not a chance! It's almost as if the Chinese government's awe-inspiring market manipulation is gracefully reaching its magnificent climax. And of course, we can all look forward to those enchanting SWAP contracts being wrapped up right on schedule after Chinese New Year. It has become such a charmingly predictable tradition, hasn't it? Like clockwork, year after year. 🙃 Now, if I gaze into my mystical crystal ball, I foresee a breathtaking future for the Chinese New Year. In the short term, hold onto your hats as the price pirouettes within the thrilling range of 7.21 and 7.17. 🧐 But wait, there's more! In the mid term, it will be up to 7.36, the peak in last year. Long term, prepare yourselves for a heart-stopping ascent to the dizzying heights of 7.78 to 7.81.🧐 Of course, we couldn't possibly fathom it going any higher than that. Why, you ask? Well, it's an absolute enigma why the mother country would ever contemplate lowering the rate of the son, especially when the HKDUSD stands at a jaw-dropping 7.8. It's like an intricate puzzle wrapped in a perplexing riddle, don't you think? 🤭 Yes, the macroeconomic world is teetering on the edge of its seat, eagerly awaiting the news that will come to the rescue of the oh-so-precious property market! I mean, what else could possibly save the day? Whispers and rumors abound about lower interest rates, an astonishing metamorphosis of the 5% public housing policies into a mind-boggling 30%, and let's not forget the grand abolishment of Xi's policy, "house is for living but not for making money". 🤭 Oh, but that's not all! Hold onto your hats as only newly planned developments are bestowed the privilege of borrowing money. Isn't it just splendid? But wait, there's more excitement brewing! Brace yourselves as the government magnanimously increases their securing guarantee for property lending. 🍒 Can you even begin to fathom the magnitude of this? We're talking trillions upon trillions of USD equivalent CNY being injected into the market. It's like a magical elixir that will undoubtedly solve all the property market woes. What could possibly go wrong under Xi's visionary policy? 😛 Ladies and gentlemen, get ready for a spectacular show this year. It's going to be one for the books! What are we waiting for? Wish all luck with you. HAPPY LUNAR NEW YEAR! 😛
Long
by RedCranePunch
A Traders' Week Ahead Playbook – Hasta la vista rate hikes It’s a central bank bonanza this week, where a good number of these meetings are ‘live’, and where we should see further tightening. The Fed meeting is not a live one (they won't raise rates), but it will get central focus, as it always does. While swaps markets for a number of counties price a hike this week, and a risk of another in November, residual slowing in demand could feasibly result in this being a week of semantics; a week we look back at and see the last delivered rate hike, ringing the bell on an aggressive tightening cycle. Making that call through this cycle has been for the brave or those without reputations to lose. However, the sharp decline in interest rate and bond volatility is testament to the idea that the distribution of central bank interest rates is no longer normalised (the market sees an equal chance of hikes or cuts) and is now firmly skewed towards cuts. We can look at rate cuts underway/emerging from LATAM central banks, which we see as a canary in the coal mine for G10 FX – yet, while we’re heading in that direction, unless we get a strong deceleration in demand or a strong tightening of financial conditions, then cuts in DM are a Q224 story. What to do with the USD this week? The US-exceptionalism story remains central and highly supportive of the USD and that won’t change this week. That said, China is improving, and sentiment is looking to turn, so if USDCNH can head to 7.2000 then I’d be more comfortable calling a USD tradeable sell-off. USD positioning is incredibly rich. Other themes that are front and centre: · Crude and its march towards $100 · EURCNH – is this bear trend ready to kick on? · Was Friday’s 1.8% decline in the NAS100 a one-day affair driven by options flow or is there more vol in store? · Can US 5yr real rates break out above 2.22% (TradingView code: TVC:US05Y-FRED:T5YIE) - will this be taken poorly by risk? · Will sentiment towards China turn more positive? Could this see AUD outperform? The marquee event risks for traders to navigate: FOMC meeting (Thursday at 04:00 AEST) – In theory, the FOMC meeting should be a low-volatility affair, but it is a risk that needs to be managed. There is very little chance the Fed hike rates, so the focus should fall on the bank’s economic and fed funds projections. Counter to the actions we saw from the ECB last week, the Fed should raise its 2023 and 2024 growth forecasts, while lowering its inflation forecasts. We should see the median projection for the 2023 fed funds rate (the so-called ‘dot plot’) remaining at 5.6%, offering the bank the flexibility to hike again in November, should the data warrant it. We should see the median 2024 fed funds projection remain at 4.6%, but there is a risk this projection/’dot’ increases by 25bp, which would cement a higher-for-longer stance. We could also see the long-run dot, currently at 2.5%, taken higher. Should the 2024 ‘dot’ be pulled higher, then we could see rate cuts for 2024 being priced out, the USD finding renewed buying interest and equity indices under pressure. BoE Meeting (Thursday 21:00 AEST) – The BoE should hike by 25bp to 5.5% with nearly all 54 economists (surveyed by Bloomberg) calling for a hike and swaps pricing this outcome at an 82% probability. This could very well mark the last hike the BoE make in the cycle. The BoE will also announce an increased pace of Quantitative Tightening from October 23 to September 2024. GBP was one of the worst performers in our FX universe last week, with GBPUSD eying a move into 1.2300, while GBPMXN fell 3.6%, falling for 7 days in a row. GBPCAD has also had a strong move lower into 1.6750 and I favour selling rallies into 1.6820. BoJ meeting (Friday – no set time) – There is no chance of a hike from the BoJ at this stage, and after Gov Ueda clarified late last week that the bank was not looking to move away from Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP), one questions if this meeting will cause any movement at all in the JPY or JPN225. National CPI (due earlier at 09:30 AEST) could be more interesting, with expectations of 3% headline CPI (from 3.3%) and 3% on core CPI. Swiss National Bank (SNB) meeting (Thursday 17:30 AEST) – The SNB should hike by 25bp to 2%, with the market pricing this outcome at 68%. CADCHF has been ripping higher of late, so I would use any dips from a 25bp hike to initiate new longs. GBPCHF tests its recent range lows of 1.1085, so one maybe due for a technical bounce off these levels, although given the event risk in both currencies it wouldn’t surprise to see a range break that holds. Norges Bank meeting (Thursday 18:00 AEST) – The Norwegian Central Bank should hike by 25bp, but this is fully priced and expected by the market. The Norges Bank are another central bank that could be calling it a day on hikes after this last effort. The NOK seems lost at present and missing a spark and has diverged significantly from the rally in Brent crude. NOKJPY is a case in point, where traders can look at the daily and see range trading the play. Riksbank Meeting (Sweden) meeting (Thursday 17:30 AEST) – The Riksbank should hike by 25bp to 4% with the markets pricing a hike at 100%. South Africa Central Bank (SARB) meeting (Thursday) – While S.A core inflation is still too high at 4.7% the SARB should leave rates unchanged at 8.25%. CBT (Turkey) Central Bank meeting (Thursday 21:00 AEST) - expected to hike 500bp to 30% Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) meeting (Thursday 07:30 AEST) – The BCB should cut the Selic rate by 50bp to 12.75%, although we may see some skew in the voting towards 75bp. USDBRL eyes range lows of 4.8500, and I favour BRL and MXN longs. Other key data points that could influence UK CPI (20 Sept 16:00 AEST) – the market looks for UK headline CPI to come in at 7.1% (from 6.8%), and core CPI to fall to 6.8% (from 6.9%). The market may put more weight on the core CPI measure, where the outcome could affect pricing for the BoE meeting a day later – it would, however, require a huge downside miss to warrant a pause at this week's BoE meeting. UK S&P manufacturing and services PMI (22 Sept 18:30 AEST) – We saw a big downside surprise in the prior UK service PMI read, which proved to be a key influence in the liquidation of GBP longs. The market expects manufacturing PMI to come in at 43.4 (from 43.0) and service PMI at 49.0 (49.5) – if the outcome comes in below sombre expectations, the GBP could be sold hard. EU manufacturing and services PMI (22 Sept 18:00 AEST) – expectations for EU manufacturing PMI sit at 44.0 (from 43.5) and services PMI sit at 47.7 (from 47.9). Weak numbers, especially in the service data could bring out further EUR sellers, with EURUSD currently holding the 31 May swing low of 1.0635 – a closing break here puts 1.0516 in play. Mexico CPI (Friday 22:00 AEST) – the market eyes headline CPI at 4.48% yoy (from 4.6%) and core at 5.77% (from 5.96%). The market sees Banxico cutting rates in December, so this CPI print could play into those expectations and move the MXN, ECB speakers – The key players on the ECB rollout this week and could move the dial – we hear from Villeroy, Lagarde, Elderson, Schnabel, Lane, Guindos.
PEPPERSTONE:USDXLong
by Pepperstone
USD/CNH looks set for its next leg higherUSD/CNH remains in a soliud uptrend on the daily chart and, after consolidating around the June highs and forming a bullish hammer at 7.25, the swing low appears to be in. A bullish range expansion day broke the bearish resistance line, and bulls could seek to enter upon any pullbacks towards yesterday’s low for a tigher long entry. The bias remians bullish above Last weej’s hammer low, and we could now be heade for 7.35 or the 2022 high. A small bulish hammer has also formed on the 1-hour chart. A conservative target projected from the recent leg higher suggests 7.32 for bulls, whilst if we use the run up from 7.27 it projects a target atound 7.34.
Long
by CityIndex
USD/CNH Extends Gains Amid Firmer US Dollar and Geopolitical...USD/CNH Extends Gains Amid Firmer US Dollar and Geopolitical Tensions The USD/CNH currency pair has been making significant strides, extending its gains for the fifth consecutive day during the Asian session on Friday. Trading around 7.3530, the pair is now approaching the resistance confluence at 7.3590. Simultaneously, the onshore Yuan (CNY) has reached a 16-year high at 7.3462 against the US Dollar (USD). These developments underscore the current strength of the USD, which has been bolstered by a consistent stream of positive economic data from the United States. Firm USD Supported by Upbeat Economic Data The recent performance of the USD can be largely attributed to the string of encouraging economic indicators emerging from the US. Notably, on Thursday, the release of data revealed that as of September 1, Initial Jobless Claims in the US had decreased to 216,000, a notable drop from the previous figure of 229,000. These numbers defied market expectations, which had anticipated an increase to 234,000. Furthermore, US Unit Labor Costs for the second quarter (Q2) surged to 2.2%, up from the previous reading of 1.6%, contrary to the expectation that they would remain unchanged. These impressive economic figures have lent support to the USD, instilling confidence among investors and traders. As a result, the USD has continued to gain strength, influencing its performance against various other currencies, including the Chinese Yuan. Geopolitical Tensions in Focus In addition to the currency market dynamics, geopolitical developments are also impacting the USD/CNH pair. The upcoming G20 leaders' summit in New Delhi, scheduled to commence this Saturday, has garnered significant attention. US President Joe Biden is set to participate in the event, but notably absent from the guest list is Chinese President Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping's decision not to attend the summit raises questions about the state of US-China relations. The absence of both leaders at a crucial global forum signifies the persisting strain in their bilateral relationship. It's worth noting that this comes amid ongoing tensions surrounding issues like trade, technology, and human rights, further complicating diplomatic efforts between the two superpowers. The exclusion of China's top leadership from the summit may contribute to the prevailing geopolitical uncertainty, and the market will closely monitor any developments that could impact the global economic landscape. Conclusion The USD/CNH's recent winning streak, driven by a stronger US Dollar and reinforced by positive economic data, highlights the ongoing shifts in the currency market. As the pair approaches key resistance levels, traders and investors will closely watch for potential breakout opportunities. Simultaneously, the geopolitical backdrop, marked by the absence of President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit, adds an extra layer of complexity to the situation, underscoring the intricacies of global diplomacy and their potential influence on currency markets. Our preference The upside prevails as long as 7.26750 ( 78.6% Fibo ) is support.
Long
by FOREXN1
8
Chinese Yuan Price Action Setting Up For a Potential CollapseWe have a huge Void below us and the Yuan has Rallied away from this Void before, but it appears to now be making a Lower High with Hidden Bearish Divergence on Both the RSI and MACD; If the Yuan Breaks Below the B point of this Potential Crab BAMM which also happens to be The Confirmation Line of what would then also be a 3 Falling Peaks Pattern, we will very likely then see Downwards Acceleration Towards the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension Below to Complete the Harmonic Pattern
Short
by RizeSenpai
2
The case for a Weaker Yuan The most recent Caixin Manufacturing PMI dipped below 50, landing back in contraction territory after two prints above the 50-mark. As the world's top exporter, China is acutely sensitive to fluctuations in both exports and manufacturing numbers. Historically, we've seen periods of Yuan devaluation during times of contracting Manufacturing PMI and exports as China works to invigorate export demand. With the latest PMI number trending lower, it's worth pondering whether this signals a movement toward a weaker Yuan. A more detailed examination of Chinese economic data presents some reasons for concern. Chinese export-related economic data has collectively taken a downward turn. This could stimulate further Yuan weakening as the government strives to reinvigorate exports. Moreover, as the world's second-largest oil importer, lower oil prices gives China additional leeway in weakening its currency, as the ripple effects of higher oil prices are tempered. From a technical perspective, the CNH is teetering on the edge of the 200-day moving average, and prices have once more nudged above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Meanwhile, in a shorter timeframe, we notice price action breaking out of the ascending triangle and nearing the top of the wedge pattern. With the USD breaking to the upside coupled with the potential for a weakening Yuan, we think this makes the case for a higher USDCNH. Taking a risk-managed long at the current level of 6.9520, a prudent stop 6.8930 and take profit level at 7.0900. A Standard Size USD/Offshore RMB (CNH) Futures represents 100,000 USD. Prices are quoted in RMB per USD, each 0.0001 per USD increment equal to 10 CNH. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
CME:CNH1!Long
by inspirante
8
Difference - China Yuan and Offshore Yuan The Chinese yuan, also known as RMB, is the official currency of China. It is used both onshore in mainland China and offshore in international markets. The offshore yuan, also known as the CNH (Chinese yuan - Hong Kong), is the version of the yuan that is traded outside of mainland China. It is traded in offshore financial centers, such as Hong Kong, Singapore, and London. The offshore yuan is not subject to the same restrictions and regulations as the onshore yuan. The main difference between the onshore and offshore yuan is that the onshore yuan is subject to capital controls imposed by the Chinese government, while the offshore yuan is not subject to these same restrictions. This means that the offshore yuan is more freely tradable and can be used for a wider range of international transactions, such as international trade and investment, while the onshore yuan is more restricted in its use. Offshore Yuan - Standard-Size USD/Offshore RMB (CNH) Outright: 0.0001 per USD increment = 10 CNH MICRO USD/CNH FUTURES 0.0001 offshore Chinese renminbi per USD CNH Option Google search: USD/CNH Monthly Options Contract Specs - CME Group Google search Frequently Asked Questions: USD/CNH options - CME Group Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Short
by konhow
'Can China’s Long-Term Growth Rate Exceed 2–3 Percent?' SummaryThis is a summary of Michael Pettis' 'Can China’s Long-Term Growth Rate Exceed 2–3 Percent?' carnegieendowment.org As the text was quite long, this summarizes some critical points. China's high investment share of GDP and growing debt burden are interrelated, stemming from an investment-driven growth model that began in the 1980s when the country needed significant investment in infrastructure, urban property development, and manufacturing facilities. High domestic investment required high domestic savings, leading to a rapid savings increase by constraining household consumption and income growth. Policymakers now recognize the need to rebalance China's economy towards domestic consumption. High investment levels initially benefited the Chinese economy, as productive investment grew at the fastest pace in history. However, a successful development model should make itself obsolete, and China has closed the gap between its actual investment level and the level its businesses and workers can productively absorb. As productivity benefits of additional investment decline, more investment begins to generate less economic value than the value of employed resources. This can be observed in China's increasing debt numbers. Countries that followed this growth model experienced a period of rapid, sustainable growth with stable debt levels, followed by a period of rapid, unsustainable growth driven by a surging debt burden. China entered this phase around fifteen years ago. Therefore, the investment share of China's GDP must decline sharply in the next few years, as the conditions that made high investment levels sustainable no longer exist. Historical precedents suggest that reducing the investment share of GDP to a sustainable level is better for the economy's long-term health, growth, and stability. In this context, rebalancing the Chinese economy will require significant adjustments in its economic structure. Beijing must focus on boosting domestic consumption, though this would likely result in a decline in China's annual GDP growth to around 2-3 percent for many years. The current investment share of GDP is extraordinarily high, making it difficult to reduce it without significantly affecting overall economic activity. Policymakers in Beijing have increasingly called for an expansion in the role of consumption, but there are significant political constraints in implementing such policies. Rebalancing would require consumption to grow faster than GDP and GDP to grow faster than investment. This implies transferring income from governments and businesses to households, a process that has not yet seen concrete proposals. The decline in growth will be unevenly distributed, with local governments bearing the brunt of the adjustment while ordinary Chinese people experience less impact. This also means that sectors of the global economy that depend on Chinese investment growth will be more affected, while those reliant on Chinese consumption will be less impacted. China's investment share of GDP currently stands at around 42-44 percent, which is unsustainable in the long run. For the purposes of this analysis, it is assumed that China should reduce its investment share to 30 percent over ten years, a level typical of rapidly developing economies. As investment declines, the consumption share of GDP must rise. Michael presents five scenarios under which China can rebalance its economy: A. Rebalance with a surge in consumption: China's consumption would need to grow by 6-7% annually, while investment grows by 0-1% annually, resulting in a GDP growth rate of 4% over ten years. However, this requires politically difficult income transfers from local governments and wealthy individuals to households. B. Rebalance while maintaining current consumption growth rates: Consumption growth would remain at 3-4%, with investment contracting by 1-2% annually. This would lead to an average annual GDP growth rate of 1.5% over ten years. C. Rebalance with a sharp decline in consumption growth: If consumption growth drops to 1-2% annually, the investment must decline by nearly 3% annually, leading to flat GDP growth. D. Rebalance with a sharp contraction in GDP: This scenario involves a short-term, severe GDP contraction but is considered politically disruptive and unlikely. E. Rebalance over a much extended period: If China takes 15-20 years to rebalance, with consumption growth at 3-4% annually, GDP growth will drop to 2% and 2.5%, respectively. Key points include the limited ways China can rebalance, the difficulty in maintaining a high investment share indefinitely, and the necessity of a surge in consumption growth for a more balanced economy. Rebalancing will involve slower GDP growth without faster consumption growth, driven by significant and politically challenging income transfers. In conclusion, China's rebalancing process will require significant adjustments in its economic structure. The country must reduce its reliance on investment and increase the role of consumption in driving growth. However, the political constraints and the impact on various sectors of the economy make this a challenging task for policymakers. The five scenarios presented illustrate the complexities of the rebalancing process and emphasize the need for a well-thought-out and carefully executed strategy. China's future economic health depends on its ability to navigate these challenges and transition to a more sustainable growth model. Beijing must strike a delicate balance between addressing political constraints and implementing policies that promote consumption growth while minimizing the negative impacts on various sectors and local governments. Moreover, the global economy is intricately connected to China's growth trajectory. As China undertakes the rebalancing process, the repercussions will be felt in sectors reliant on Chinese investment and consumption. Businesses and governments worldwide must closely monitor the situation and adapt to these changes. This analysis highlights the importance of understanding the complexities of China's rebalancing process and its implications for the Chinese and global economies. As China grapples with these challenges, the world must brace itself for the changes arising from this monumental shift in the world's second-largest economy. Only time will tell if China's rebalancing efforts will successfully pave the way for a more stable and sustainable economic future.
CAPITALCOM:CN50
by BitcoinMacro
Higher low on USD/CNH hints at countertrend bounceYield differentials between the US and China 2-year treasury note continue to suggest USD/CNH could be oversold, at least over the near-term. The daily close chart (above in black) also better shows the potential for a higher low, as part of a countertrend move. The daily candlestick chart shows a recent pullback has failed to retest the 6.6976 low, and yesterday formed a 2-bar bullish reversal pattern (bullish piercing line). Whilst prices remain within a small retracement channel, we’re now looking for a break higher and minimum move to the highs around 0.6800 (near the monthly pivot point, 100% projection and recent highs). Should it break higher, then the it has the potential to extend to the 138.2% or 161.8% projection levels, the latter of which is by the 200-day EMA. Further out, I doubt Beijing will want their currency to depreciate too much given weak export data, so its possible the anticipated move higher is simply a countertrend move which could later break to new cycle lows.
Short
by CityIndex
1
USDCNH to 6.66? 😈Please 1st of all click the boost 🚀 button if you want me to post more ideas and follow me to support my work! It's absolutely for free. After a long run up... the USDCNH probably found the top for a while. Price formed Head and Shoulders 🤷and broke the Uptrendline and then also the Neckline @ 7.01, backtested it and got rejected. Also there is bear flag in play with target 6.686, we have just broken out of it's consolidation phase: So in my eyes a downtrend has been established and I think there is chance for run to 6.66 . STOPLOSS (SL) : Right Shoulder @ 7.26 TARGET (TP) : H&S target projection @ 6.66 INVALIDATION : when SL level hit Check my other stuff in related ideas. Please boost🚀, comment🗣️, follow me✒️, enjoy📺! ⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.
Short
by bizmark
4
The Rise and Fall of Chinese YuanCME: USD/Offshore RMB ( CME:CNH1! ), COMEX: Copper Futures ( COMEX:HG1! ) Two weeks ago, China abruptly overhauled its strict Covid policy that had been in place for nearly three years. Lockdowns, health codes, massive testing, and domestic travel restrictions are no longer enforced. “The world changed overnight,” said one of my friends. From Zero-COVID to “Lying flat”, the literal translation of a Chinese term which means doing the bare minimum to get by, this is a 180-degree policy reversal. It brought overwhelming joy and fear at the same time. People rejoiced over a long-overdue normalization of life and work but feared for surges of widespread Covid infections. I am sending my prayers and hope that a weaker Omicron virus would result in less severe health issues. China’s reopening could have significant implications to its economy and to financial markets. Today, I focus on its currency, its stock market, and the global commodities markets. The chart above illustrates how the Chinese Yuan (aka RMB) has moved up and down during the 2-year trade friction and 3-year Covid: • In 2018, President Trump imposed import duties on thousands of goods originated from China. This sparked a Tariff War that met with retaliation from China. • As tension escalated and tariffs raised from both sides, the USD/RMB exchange rate depreciated 12%, from 6.28 in March 2018 to 7.16 in December 2019. • After nearly two years, the two countries signed a First Phase Trade Agreement in January 2020. The Yuan rallied 4% to 6.87. • Two weeks later, Covid broke out in Wuhan, the capitol city of Hubei Province in central China. It shocked the world. As the pandemic quickly spread all over China and to the rest of the world, RMB depreciated back to 7.16 in May 2020. • As China’s Zero-Covid policy quickly restored its manufacturing, the “World’s Factory” ramped up exports to other countries which were still shut down by the pandemic. The Yuan rallied again, all the way back to 6.3 by February 2022. • The citywide lockdown in Shanghai, China’s largest city, was a turning point. Yuan nosedived to a record low of 7.3. • Finally, the opening of Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s 20th Congress in October and November signaled a change of courses. With Zero-Covid ending a month after, the Yuan is now back up to around 6.95. In my view, China’s relations with the West are the key driver of RMB/USD exchange rate. When China embraces the world, Yuan goes up. When it decouples from it, Yuan goes down. As the time of writing, RMB has rebounded 5% in 2 months. I expect Yuan to further appreciate in 2023. China’s Stock Market China’s Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) index moved sideways. The five-year cumulative return is -7%. This highlighted the severe impacts delivered by both the Trade friction and Covid on the Chinese economy. By comparison, the S&P 500 yields +80% for the first four years. Even after the big selloff in 2022, its 5-year return is +45%. We are witnessing initial chaos from reopening and Covid surges. After time goes by, I expect China’s stock market to rebound in 2023. For certain, the Chinese economy faces a lot of headwinds. However, massive bailout from the State is on its way. Next year is a year for stock picking. State-run enterprises are in a better position to receive government stimulus disproportionally. My suggestion is to follow the money. Keep an eye on industries and companies which benefit the most from State economic policy. Commodities Will Get a Lifting China’s reopening is welcoming news for commodities. Take CME Copper Futures (HG) as an example. Since the past summer, the base metal had been beaten down by 20% amid the market fear of recession. However, it moved above its 50-day MA in November, as the end of CCP’s 20th Party Congress signaled changing courses. I am also bullish for agricultural commodities. With people going back to work and regaining income, consumption for corn, soybean, wheat, pork, beef, and poultry shall increase next year. This is good news for big exporters such as the US, Brazil, and Argentina. Takeaways: 1) CME CNH Futures may continue to pull back due to US dollar softening and China reopening. Please note that CNH is quoted RMB per USD. If the Yuan appreciates against the Dollar, futures price would fall. Therefore, if you are bullish on Yuan, shorting CNH is the proper action. 2) SSE stock index may rebound, but we are better off picking individual stocks benefiting from government stimulus. For investors who can’t trade China’s stock market, you could search for Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, or their American Depository Receipts (ADR) listed in the US markets. 3) Copper (HG) continues to weigh in between demand reduction from global recession and potential demand increase from China’s reopening. In my opinion, recession has already been priced in. The end of Zero-Covid would be an extra booster. Copper could erase its 2022 loss once China factories are pumping out products once again. I wish everyone a Happy New Year. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:CNH1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
11