Get started

CNH

ridethepig | USDCNH Long Term Macro Playbook📍 USDCNH An interesting few days for those in Chinese rates, a 100bp move in the front end, what an express train move!! Never seen anything like this before and shows the power from vol in repo fixing. PBOC will want to keep the pressure off equities, as they have been doing for some time now and hence we can see some recycling of those longs come out and make their way into bonds. This will be their only way to defend and help keep the moves to the downside contained and measured in USDCNH. In spite of the wide consolidation in Chinese Equities lately, China will be a major winner in particular from the oil crash as they were loading on the lows. The cheaper Chinese energy bill will help offset the next 12-18 month crisis. A smart move with the Oil CNY contracts as it essentially creates another mattress on the balance sheet. Later this will be described as the 'only move' that made sense and rightly so. Of course, aggressive dollar devaluation for the medium and long term is the new and decisive playbook. Sellers are happy to have held the highs, but their remaining ammunition must now make a significant impression. Those following the details of this 3rd impulsive wave may need to pull a trick or two after such a difficult battle. In any case, a test of 6.46 will be quite heart rendering, much better a deep retracement than a shallow breakup at this point .
Short
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | USDCNH Market Commentary 2020.09.22It is a well known phenomenon that the darling of 2020 has been the Yuan. An important difference operationally for China has allowed the sharp speculators to ride the flows in the endgame of an economic cycle. We must first take a look at the outpost we spotted earlier in the year, the start of sellers activity. There are signs of some short-term dollar strength via risk which means the flows are becoming less simplistic in nature and will start to aggressively shake out the late retailers with awful entries. The continuation from this position is also down to Fed. As US continue to print and finally artificially devalue the dollar we must also track the speed of which inflation returns. Those who believe in 2% inflation making a return will be tracking the supply side chains, rather than the demand side. Less tech advancements, a pullback in globalisation and increased government intervention are bearish for US and Chinese Equities.
Short
by ridethepig
3
USD/CNH 7/7/2020Welcome to this analysis on USD/CNH. Looking at the daily chart, the price has been trading in a wide range between 6.85 and 7.2 since July. On 28th of May price tested the top resistant of the range and got rejected from there and created a Head And Shoulders reversal pattern at the top half of the range that just got activated by a break and close below the neckline of the pattern at 7.04. The target of the Head And Shoulders is around 6.88 as long as the price doesn't move back up above the right shoulder of the pattern. The first support zone below the price is around 6.92 and below that the low of the range at 6.85. This trade idea has 4 rewards to risk ratio. Good luck trading.
Short
by Trader_Shayan
JPY/CNH: SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE BROKE-OUT Hello traders! As you can see from the chart above, JPY/CNH just broke out! I think that the price will continue to go down for two reasons: - MACD LINE crossed SIGNAL LINE -> STRONG BEARISH MOMENTUM (it’s getting stronger) - RSI is not OVERSOLD yet so there is a good range for the price to continue its downhill Go short until the TARGET (dotted line) and remember to put a stop loss in order to secure your capital! Not a financial advice. Enjoy your trade!
Short
by vf_investment