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USD/CNH 1H Chart: Two scenarios possibleThe US Dollar has been trading in a triangle-like formation against the Chinese Yuan since mid-January. Along the way, the pair tested the lower boundary of a four-month channel down circa 6.26. The Greenback likewise breached the prevailing junior channel yesterday. This suggests that the pair could retrace from the breached pattern and start edging higher later in the day towards the upper triangle line at 6.37, especially given the fact that the US Dollar is supported by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP at 6.33. On the other hand, technical indicators demonstrate that some downside potential still exists in the market. In case this bearish scenario occurs, the proposed fall should not exceed the 6.31 mark where the bottom triangle line is located.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
BTC - Elliot up to C&H targetHello all and welcome to this long overdue update on BTC. A few things have changed since my last chart. I'm currently updating the style and layouts of my chart and have not settled on anyone presentation choice. The resistance and support levels have been redrawn in orange horizontal rays, the red triangle was removed - as BTC went for an Elliot wave move. I've adjusted the Elliot wave time frame the target are still the same 12k, 11k, then up to about 13k. I've also added a cup and handle structure that has been sitting there the whole time, zooming out gives you a new perspective and let's you see longer term moves. This cup and handle is currently on the handle stage. The cup and handle will have another small re-dip after the formation of the handle something that is possible in traditional cup and handle patterns and does not invalidate the pattern, in fact this small redip corresponds perfectly to the Elliot wave structure we had previously posited on. I added an uptrend channel! This is great news as we are now seeing strong and steady growth which is SUSTAINABLE! Evidence for this upward channel is very strong as BTC has hard a hard time making it's way up recently to complete the cup and handle/Elliot wave 3. The channel trend-line is extremely reactionary, and if we can get above it, will serve as strong support. My longer term target for BTC is 15,5k at least and a possible 17k to which the cup and handle points to. This should all happen inside the upward channel and be rather sustainable! The RSI is very close to 70 right now but still safe and if it can hold there for a while longer we could possibly make our wave 3 target. Addressing the blue lines and the red line. I've drawn a downward channel in which bitcoin was trading down all the way for the all time high. It had stayed and challenged this channel a few times. Only now have we broken out of it - blue lines - ON THE LINEAR SCALE. On the log scale which is not shown here bitcoin has not broken out of the downward channel. It is currently just under and if the log scale is activated on my chart corresponds perfectly with the wave 3 peak and the middle trend-line for the upwards channel. This is all not trading advice and I am not a financial advisor. Best of luck, X
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by dereckmezquita
2
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Rate expected to breach resistanceUSD/CNH is trading in two descending channels which have guided its movement during the past three weeks. The rate was moving along the bottom boundaries of both patterns prior to reversing from the senior one circa 6.2575 and forming a new channel up. The Greenback’s movement during the past two weeks has been bounded in a short-term channel down whose upper boundary coincides with one of the previously-mentioned medium-term patterns. The base scenario favours a soon breakout north towards the most senior channel circa 6.36 during this week. In order to fulfill this scenario, the rate has to overcome a significant resistance of the 200– and 55-hour SMAs and the weekly PP near the 6.31 mark. In case the bearish sentiment prevails, the US Dollar should be guided towards the monthly S1 near 6.2050 during the following trading sessions.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Breakout from junior channelA channel down has confined USD/CNH for the last three months, while a junior channel was formed a four weeks ago. As apparent on the chart, the US Dollar tested the 6.2815 mark yesterday - its lowest level since mid-2015. The upper boundary of the junior formation was breached on the same day. The Greenback has since retraced from this line and remained stranded between the weekly PP and S1 Technical indicators are still in favour of another decline, given that the northern barrier is set by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP circa 6.31. However, the US Dollar should gain strength within the following days, breach this area and eventually get ready for a medium-term advance towards the senior channel located in the 6.38/42 area.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/CNH Long term The US Dollar has continued to lose ground against the rest of the currencies. The USD/CNH pair is no exception to this event. However, there is one interesting aspect to the decline of the Buck against the Chinese Yuan. The currency pair recently stopped its decline and began to trade sideways. The move was initiated by a combined support of the lower trend line of junior channel down pattern, weekly S1 and monthly S2. All of these support levels are located in a range from 6.4200 to 6.4290. Meanwhile, resistance is provided by the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level at the 6.4480 mark. The pair is likely to trade sideways until it reaches the resistance of the channel. Afterwards, the decline should resume.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Pair remains near channelThe US Dollar’s movement against the Chinese Yuan during the past six weeks has been guided by a descending channel. The pair was trading along its bottom line last week and thus fell to its four-month low of 6.4715; however, it did eventually gain strength on Monday. Following a test of the 6.54 mark, the Greenback initiated a new wave down—a move was disrupted by the 55-hour SMA. Given that the pair remains testing this line for several hours, it might be finally breached within this session. A subsequent fall, however, should be stopped by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the 23.60% Fibo retracement near 6.5050. The steepness of the senior channel suggests that it could be breached during the next week. A surge might follow, thus setting the 6.55 area as a near-term target and 6.57—for a longer term.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Greenback fails to pick up speedUSD/CNH has been guided by a descending channel since mid-October. The lower boundary of this medium-term pattern was tested late on Tuesday. However, a subsequent surge up was halted by the 55-hour SMA—a resistance barrier that was tested early today. Given that the pair failed to surpass this moving average already last week, it is likely that it hinders for several hours near this line and the 100-hour SMA and the monthly S1 in the 6.5520/6.5650 territory. The pair might even trade lower during the following hours, but it should eventually pick up speed and push towards the junior channel circa 6.58.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Rate trapped in triangleA symmetrical triangle has dominated the USD/CNH currency pair since early August. It seems that this pattern has reach maturity, thus pointing to a soon breakout. As apparent on the chart, the US Dollar has likewise formed a channel down. It is currently testing the upper boundary of this pattern. The given currency has just moved above the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMA. This suggests that traders might still see a slight movement north. However, this advance should be limited by the upper triangle boundary and the weekly R1 in the 6.6550/6600 area. Given that the pair entered the senior pattern from above, the breakout is likely to be southwards. Thus, even if the rate manages to reach 6.6550, the US Dollar is expected to depreciate against the Chinese Yuan in the medium term.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/CNH meets long term supportThe US Dollar has been plummeting against the Chinese Yuan during the second half of August. However, it seems that the decline of the Buck against the Yuan has ended. The currency exchange rate has met the support of a rather week long term descending channel pattern near the 6.5240 mark. It is possible that the trend line managed to hold its ground because of the weekly S1, which is located at that level. Since then the pair has managed to score gains and reach the 6.56 mark, and it is expected to continue the surge. However, politics are more likely to set the exchange rate.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
Long USDCNH touching 3 year trend line & 200 Week SMA!After the 1.5 year trend break a while back the Yaun has been on a massive bull run(Remember the Yaun is stronger when the USDCNH falls), but now it is hitting the original bearish trend line at the same time as the Chinese government is making it easier to bet against the Yaun given that they are no longer worried about an uncontrolled bear market. The setup is prime. The RSI is also indicating that the USDCNH is over sold. I told you to short the dollar yaun at the last trend break and I was correct. Now I see another reversal on the horizon.
Long
by coltsrule7
USDCNY. Filling the Mega Gap. Wave 5One of market wizards once told that to find the trend we should squeeze the chart. Frankly speaking I thought USDCNY is in a correction before I squeezed the chart, the Monthly chart. The pair had a Mega GAP in 1994. It looks like we have an echo from that distant time in form of a downside impulse, which is filling the gap. We could be in the last large wave down to hit the 5.8145 mark. This idea is opposite to the primary market opinion of imminent devaluation of yuan.
Short
by aibek
5
USCNH will move higher on capital flows out of ChinaMore and more economic data is showing that Chinese nationals are sending money abroad. Currency reserves are getting depleted and the Bank of China is allowing the CNY mid-point band to move lower. I see a long term move up significantly higher in USD versus CNH. But, Chinese interest rates are high making a carry differential that favors CNH. Probably will day trade this's over the course of many months versus one long position. seekingalpha.com
Long
by ByDHTaylor