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Great R/R for BABA short term, but could fall another 10-20%.Hey friends. One of my friends (and 100% a 'boomer in the making') was looking for some info on BABA. His strategy is always "BTFD" , and he holds very the long term. Looking at $BABA through a bullish perspective, it's in a decent oversold condition with a defined risk/reward. The weekly candle is a bullish reversal 'doji', and we're below the forming descending wedge (a typical "wave e"), plus the RSI is crazy oversold (weekly RSi has only been this low once or twice). Depending on what happens on Monday morning, you can buy at market open around 161 (likely no higher than 164), with a defined stop below the low of 152.39. Looking at $BABA through a bearish perspective, you can see that China's S&P equivalent (the CSI 300 Index, bottom chart) is also weak, which means China ain't so hot right now. We're below all major moving averages, and our MACD is showing no sign of a reversal. Keltner channels are all trending down. From a macro perspective, there's a lot of leftover tension from the trade war, and long term they're looking to do CNYUSD currency swaps (that is, swap all reserves and holdings from global USD to Chinese CNY, which will ease their reliance and dependency on playing nice with the US). I'm no expert, but they'll likely be selling USD and buying CNY, forcing the CNY up from increased demand. Therefore, because most of the CSI 300 companies 'holders' are denominated in CNY (I can't imagine many foreign holders of these companies), the companies will lose relative 'share value' to CNY. A temporary drop in China's stock market is a small price to pay for international autonomy and a shot at being the global reserve currency. Long term, they're looking to replace all trade partners with domestic solutions, so maybe my boomer-buddy has the best BTFD moment in history! There's actually a great Market Huddle Episode on China-USA Trade relations and the Triffin Paradox here Below, here's the CNYUSD. Does that look bullish? If it does, their stock market is about to take a wee-plunge. Good Luck!
NYSE:BABA
by TMoneyBidness
1
Black Swan - US-China Phase 1 DealSpeculation for Macro: - 2018: Trump began trade war with China, and the market had the worst year in a decade (at the time). - 2020: US-China Phase 1 deal is signed, market crashes shortly after. - 2021: Market immediately rebounds and has the greatest bull market in history. IMO it was a run-up then sell the news by insiders, then BTD for the bull run to come. That deal is to expire 2022, and will likely be assessed soon. Check out the behavior of SKEW/VVIX/PCR right before the Trade Deal... Does somebody know something? Even if it is renewed, it is bullish long term but very likely a big flush for insiders to BTD. If China withdraws, it's recession - returning to a situation similar to 2018 with a tariff tit-for-tat except with current supply chain issues, pandemic, massive debt levels, and slowing global economy. One part of the deal entails China refraining from competitive devaluation of their currency. However, US is devaluing their currency through inflation (speculated). That is bullish for US equities, but CNYUSD is now at the top of a range: Should the deal expire, and China devalues their currency, the US will need to respond with more debt. Can the world handle more debt? Phase 1 Deal: www.reuters.com Full text found here: web.archive.org GLHF - DPT
SP:SPXShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
8
EUR USD TO 1.5 - DUMP USD INDEX TO 80 - with 20% upside for RMBhey the dollar going down down down against these giant EUR and RMB . the rise of Asian currencies also help pushes the dollar lower. when the banks WAKES UP tomorrow finding that the dollar vaults is the WORST PERFORMER ASSET OF THE YEAR they will dump the usd debt papers on the streets and causing the ugliest drop for usd, simply because its hugely oversupplied.. only real utilize is 10% from its total money/paper printed. and negative return. they will shift usd to other yielding currencies with good interest ##my experience 12 yrs of trading all sorts of paper assets.
Long
by CryptoGainers
Market Insight: Maintaining a forecast of 6.30 by end 2021 - INGING discussed its expectations for the USDCNY in a recent note to clients. Finally, the PBoC acts to deter yuan appreciation After several rounds of talking down yuan appreciation, China's central bank has now taken some firmer action. The PBoC will raise fx deposit reserves from 5% to 7% effective from 15th June. This comes after the PBoC appreciated the USDCNY fixing this morning to 6.3681 from last Friday's 6.3858. Will this work? We believe that this increase in foreign deposit reserves will help to deter speculators and shield the yuan from further rapid appreciation unless those speculators believe that the yuan wil appreciate by more than 2% points from now even after the PBoC has sent this strong signal. In short, this should be enough to slow the pace of the yuan's appreciation. But it may not stop it. Is this a backward move on exchange rate liberalisation? This sounds a bit like a retrograde step to the PBoC's ambitions on exchange rate liberalisation. But it isn't really. Looking at the fixing, which continued this morning to follow overnight developments of the dollar index, it looks as if the PBoC still wants to stick to the idea of exchange rate liberalisation. But this is difficult to achieve if the PBoC doesn't like speculators occasionally taking charge of the direction and pace of the yuan FX market. A market consists of FX users and investors, including speculators. We interpret the foreign deposit reserves as a tool to deter speculation, not yuan users (such as exporters and importers). And this type of administrative measure will continue to be used repeatedly when yuan moves look to be dominated too much by speculators. We are maintaining our USDCNY forecast at 6.30 for the end of 2021.
by thunderpips
CNY breaking major trendlineCNY has broken a major long term trendline against the US dollar. I believe there is more upside ahead for the Chinese Yuan. The Chinese gov will try to talk down the Yuan to dollar but that will not work without some major government intervention. Just today, they announced a hike in reserve ratio requirements for the first time since May 2007. This move didn't work then and it probably won't work now. It may slow the acceleration though. I would be looking for the Yuan to test its all time high of 16.66 area. Watch out for a throwback to .1558 area first.
Long
by ngordon
Take a look at the chart in daily timeHi everyone I hope you are well In our previous analysis, we focused on buying transactions. In this analysis, we analyzed the chart in daily time. You can see that Zoon 0.9448 to 0.9490 has good price support. We also have a resistance-resistance line that reacts to this line several times. But this time, the price may be trapped and break the support level and we will see a move towards 0.9270. 📣 Attention 📣 ⚠️ 1. We publish this trading idea to help analysts, so if you have an idea that you think is right, do not be influenced by this idea. ⚠️ 2. All our analysis and signals are provided free of charge, so we have no obligation to make any profit or loss on our signals and analysis. ⚠️ 3. If you have an idea, write to us in the comments section, we will be happy to use your idea in our analysis.
Short
by fx_iranian_traders
ridethepig | Gold in CNY📌 The lows in Gold are an elegant threat for another leg higher towards the highs; name wave 5 which is the one that we have been tracking since the previous diagram: I love it when an idea comes together. We arrived at the destination for our retrace and have started to form a base. Sellers are vacating! Moreover, buyers are now keeping their eye on the momentum gambits, these are particularly for their fancy. A change of scenery from the channel would be enough to do the technical damage, there is hope for the combination and recommend keeping some powder back to go massive when it start working. This is exactly the same way we played it with the 3rd wave up... try with one or two positions in the opening, no more. Once you break the block add another; and another; and eventually you build an entire account which gets new and decisive in its own way. Anything but selling the premium! So the XAUUSD annotation: Also much clearer is the flow in XAUUSD which, since the prospect of dollar getting devalued, makes it a lot easier and more important to track. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FX_IDC:XAUCNYLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | SHCOMP for the Yearly Close📌 Another round of updates for the Yearly close on the MT and LT maps, sellers may still be in control but buyers are flirting with that breakup. This will occupy the battlefield and unlock a test of 4,500 for 2021. What is wrong with the bull case is exhausting to list; the exchange of capital from public to private assets is developing sooner than I expected. After Trump lost it is opening the window and front door for capital outflows. I am not interested in personalities with politics, when you have been in this business for too long you either understand or learn to never trust politicians on either side. Biden implementing the typical "vote me in and i'll get the guy who caused this" manoeuvre is carrots on a stick. Economic cycles are more powerful than politics. As we have seen, monetary policy has been employed and constitutes an excellent weapon for this 'reset'. After PBOC 'whatever it takes' moment, we managed to trade more or less to the tick on the lows as the exchange was easy to track: Now once we approached the highs we began to track for signs of a possible top. On the one hand, the ABC is very strong and must absolutely continue holding for sellers to have a valid setup. However, an immediate attack on the highs looks somewhat easier now as we ran out of time on the U.S. political front. So, the correct moves for 2021 is now the freeing impulsive swing rather than the previous retracement: But we must quite specifically keep an eye on continuation of sharp speculators outguessing government defaults cooking and the early game has started. Possibly the occupation of 4,500 and beyond. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
SLong
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | CNY for the Yearly Close📌 CNY for the Yearly Close... In the usual tradition, this topping formation appeared to fit the bill! The correct way to play it was for sellers to proceed; dollar weakness was knocking while CNY was quite tenable. It is now obvious that the above mentioned development has been less time consuming that the initial legs higher: This means the position we are tracking into the yearly close appears quite harmless but is very alarming. Sellers are now threatening to occupy the lows, in addition it has been quite comfortable for them with Trump unable to say much, the Biden Whitehouse will ensure dollar devaluation with extreme care. This year has clearly been the year of the yuan. In order to chase the moves lower; let's look for some targets and areas to unload liquidity - I am tracking 6.242x for the minor targets and 6.040x for the major targets in 2021. This obviously recognises the charming continuations, sellers should look for any weak rallies to scale into towards year-end. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
$USDCNH DRIVES USD WEAKNESS BUT POSSIBLE MEASURED MOVE COMPLETEUSDCNH has been a strong driver of USD weakness and has weakened more that 7% over 5months, straight line. Looking at the technical structure of the double top and breakdown right through the neckline levels, the measured move takes us down to where USDCNH put in a low last week at 6.627. Last week produced a reversal candle (though a weak one) closing around 6.665 just below the key 6.67 and 6.74 handles. There is momentum divergence on the lower lows and completes the measured move. Technically a strong case for a bounce here. PBOC are getting concerned about recent USD weakness which could hurt exports and meeting inflation targets. They will act to achieve their targets and this pivot zone looks like a good reference level on how much they are willing to let the CNY appreciate against the USD. For now, the added uncertainty of US elections and what it means for escalating US-China tensions means market sentiment will lean on the cautious side and see some safe have demand, and some upward consolidation in USDCNH. I don't have a position but keeping an eye on this as I engage in pro-USD trades.
Long
by doejistar
A system for speculationThere are seven ways to improve the art of speculation. Latest cheatsheet: 1. 🔎 Find your price driver - build a macro argument based on probabilities How good is the quality of the price driver? If I look at the BOE and ECB, how wide is the divergence? We are looking for chalk and cheese, opposites attract. 2. 🖐 Execution is important - most get stopped out where they should enter The key to great execution is being able to assess market participation and price action. 3. 🛠 Start small and leverage winners - from one brick build a house Reverse engineer the retail blow ups! Start with a core unit, when it starts to pay, and the drivers are working, you can add some more. Treat it like a business! 4. ❓ Has anything changed - reassess trades everyday at the roll Don't think about the chart here, focus on the macro drivers. Are negative rates still in play for BOE? or have they changed their view on No-deal countermeasures? 5. ⛓ Remain nimble - do not get married to a position If we don't like what we see, if BOE turns hawkish, then we can just take the position off. Understand where is enough and admit where you are done. 6. 💫 Stay in the moment - perception matters more than reality If you can understand and outguess how perception will change, then you will be very profitable. Where's the sweet spot? How is the market positioned? 7. 😬 A life and death showdown - everyday is high noon in the markets Market participants are profoundly into the game. So much so that everything else in life seems unimportant. Threadneedle Street becomes the world as your opponent will keep trying to outmanoeuvre.
XEducation
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | USDCNH into the elections📍 USDCNH into the elections Oct 2020 Markets are moving quickly. Sellers completed the third wave target at 6.629x as widely expected. The pullback we are tracking in wave 4 is now brilliant proof of a lust to expand even further down. In the 2020 macro chart, we are ahead of schedule and a healthy pullback into the elections, followed by an exchange lower seems like the pragmatic play. Of course if you are short from above you have nothing to do but continue to add on pullbacks, but for those wanting to get closer to the flows, a leg back towards 6.85x seems highly likely. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
FX Update: USD breaks support but do bears want to press...FX Update: USD breaks support but do bears want to press their case pre-election? Summary: The US dollar closed last week below important support levels as investors position for a large US stimulus deal and wax positive on a Biden presidency as odds continue to tilt his way in the latest polls, easing fears of a contested election. Elsewhere, China initiated a move overnight apparently aimed at slowing the pace of yuan appreciation. Trading focus: USD crosses below important support, China applies the brakes to CNY rally The US dollar closed Friday on a weak note, with risk sentiment continuing to improve on the prospects for a stimulus package possibly set to pass before the election on Trump’s latest change of tune in favour of a large package and the market apparently warming to a strong Democratic outcome (which must include taking the Senate to realize any portion of Biden’s campaign platform), choosing to see the glass half full of significant new stimulus under a Biden presidency and ignoring for now the glass-half-empty of the risk of climate regulations and even more importantly, higher taxes on corporations and high incomes and large capital gains. The close above 1.1800 in EURUSD and above 0.7200 in AUDUSD (discussed further below) sets the tone as the week gets underway, and after the strong run higher in risk sentiment, we’ll need to see US politicians deliver on stimulus to keep the US dollar heading weaker still. My chief question is whether USD bears want to press their case in further here with more than residual uncertainty around election outcomes, particularly on whether the Dems can take the Senate. Earnings season is also getting under way this week and will be important for risk sentiment as well. One interesting one to watch for insight on the economy is Wells Fargo, the largest, largely Main-Street focused US bank, set to report earnings on Wednesday. What it is seeing with its enormous client base as the initial US stimulus push has slowed could provide fresh insights on the “K-shaped” narrative of diverging fortunes for winners and losers in the Covid-19 crisis. Moving somewhat at odds with the weaker US dollar, China overnight launched a push apparently aimed at making a statement against the recent pace of yuan declines as it eased rules for financial institutions on speculating against the yuan (dropping the reserve ration to zero from 20%) and set the fix much stronger than expected. This, after the USDCNY rate traded near the lows of early 2019 on Friday. If China makes a more concerted effort to reverse the tide, this could certainly frustrate the pace of USD weakening elsewhere. Chart: AUDUSD It is rather impressive that the Australian dollar managed to close up above the important 0.7200 pivot and maintain that price action today despite China’s moves to at least slow the pace of yuan appreciation. This move above 0.7200 was an important technical trigger for keeping the focus to the upside but needs further support from the reflationary narrative of rising commodity prices and a US stimulus package on its way to keep the USD weaker – otherwise, we risk another false directional move as the market may frustrate any attempt at chunky directional moves until we clear up the US election uncertainties once and for all. Sterling – still no clarity, but market placing its chips on a breakthrough ahead of Thursday. UK Boris Johnson continues to claim that he is ready to walk away from talks with the EU if a deal in principle is not reached by the October 15 (this Thursday) negotiation deadline he set months ago for the terms of the post-Brexit transition period relationship. After weekend talks between Johnson and France’s Macron and Germany’s Merkel, Johnson said that the EU will have to move on its position on fisheries. Top EU negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK’s David Frost are set to resume talks in Brussels today. The market continues to price sterling as if a breakthrough is more likely than not this week, but the situation will almost inevitably produce significant volatility in either direction depending on the outcomes around the Thursday deadline. The 1.3000 level in GBPUSD was crossed more due to USD weakness, while EURGBP has dithered below 0.9100 without approaching the more pivotal 0.9000 area. To get below there, we would likely need an agreement-in-principle headline this week. The G-10 rundown USD – the US dollar is on its back foot but the chief question is perhaps whether the market is really ready to doing anything dramatic on the greenback until we at least get to the other side of the election. EUR – the positive risk sentiment in the US only echoed weakly into Europe and the positioning in US futures market is still extremely heavily long EUR – not the usual starting place for a major advance. JPY – both eyes on US yields this week after the recent spike higher – JPY could stay resilient if this is a false signal and yields head back lower – EURJPY one way to get contrarian on that account. Actua GBP – two-way risks this week as noted above on the UK’s October 15 deadline, though even a breakdown in talks doesn’t necessarily mean that no deal is possible before December 31. CHF – the franc hanging in there below 1.0800 in EURCHF even as the weekly CHF sight deposits actually shrank slightly last week. AUD – as noted above, the local technical key is the 0.7200 level in AUDUSD, while China moving against CNY appreciation could slow the prospects for upside, as could the uncertainty of the US election. CAD – the USDCAD moving in sympathy with USD weakness and has some room left ahead of the giant 1.3000 chart level – have a hard time seeing a major new move ahead of the US election. NZD – the RBNZ dusting off its negative rates talk still has AUDNZD above 1.0800, a pivotal level for differentiation with the relative NZD strength or weakness in the crosses. SEK – the krona enjoying the risk sentiment surge, but is the momentum positive enough here in the EU economy to continue to drive a fall in EURSK all the way to the sub-10.25 lows again – doubtful tactically. NOK – watching the price action in the pivotal 10.75-80 area in EURNOK as a recent oil recovery has helped reverse a good portion of the NOK’s steep decline from September, but we need more from oil and risk sentiment in Europe specifically to mount a challenge toward the 10.40 area cycle lows again. 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by Saxo
1
ridethepig | Gold in CNY📌 The struggle to claim 14,631 is notable. When studying the waves I came across similar a similar state of affairs in the earlier flows. The impulsive rally derives from its strong nature, not from itself but from much more the strategic concept of portfolio defence. A defensive move which is clearly crowded and starting to become a deer in the headlights could do with a push down to sharply shake out the late retailers who are attempting to eat off the march forward. Here we started to load longs on the breakup of the 3rd wave, a momentum gambit which we will discuss further in detail over the coming weeks, sellers outpost was taken exposing the highs. The long-term flows into gold are made from sound fundamentals and common sense ideas, however, it does not mean we cannot attempt to outplay our opponents in the interim... before they get comfy for a good night's rest! Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FX_IDC:XAUCNYShort
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | Tracking CNH Extremely Closely🔸 China Macro Flows 🔸 The point of this configuration is that CNH is influencing the currency, equity and commodity board that can be seen in AUDUSD, NZDUSD, OIL, Gold and everything in-between...USD's cannot make any use of the Yuan devaluation and this has been a threat ever since Saudi unlocked the CNY oil contract. For those tracking the Long-term Macro Playbook we are reaching the first area of strong support. Now that all the pieces to the global economy are hanging by a thread, it will be difficult to continue betting on the downside in USD until we clear the second chapter in covid. To put simply, expecting a temporary stop-over till 2021 as markets will have a difficult time from August convincing people to stand as guarantors to CNH till year-end. The "Giant Panda" has been playing a 🔑 role in sitting on the AUD bid...however, in an ever changing environment the arrival of Covid Chapter II will make things even more complex. Highly recommend digging deeper into the AUDCNH and NZDCNH which are both experiencing the slingshot as widely expected since the start of the pandemic: 📍 AUDCNH 📍 NZDCNH ... As you all know by now the Oil devaluation gave China a third lever to control its C.A surplus - by devaluing the black stuff it was the equivalent of devaluating the Yuan. As long as we get another hammer in Oil then it will offset any upside in CNHUSD, the only way that the U.S. can manoeuvre around this is by pushing up the price of XAU in USD terms. Why❓ ... Well as we can trade GC1 and CL1 in both USD and CNY terms it means the Gold:Oil ratio is indirectly tightening the noose on the petrodollar market. Despair. It illustrates the unhealthy stance of the energy market and the 'checkmate' from China/Russia. The textbook move involves a pinning of USD and US Equities. We are still not quite there yet where the USD can begin the waterfall devaluation, it will take a Plaza Accord 2.0 to trigger such an event and until the dollar peaks Equities will remain vulnerable to gyrations in risk sentiment. Those who are betting on the CNHUSD breakdown are also aiming for a retest of support at the March lows in SPX, NQ and DJIA... The USD will still be the safest place to park in Covid Chapter II. 📍 The Dow 📍 Shanghai Comp Highly recommend tracking CNH in the 'endgame' of the economy cycle. Typically recessions last 5 Quarters in time and it is far from unusual to see 2 or 3 of those Quarters as dead-cat-bounces. If you are still in any doubts of the picture equity promoters are painting, please take a look at Long Bonds which are refusing to subscribe to the V-shaped consensus view. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
1
📘 A small but very useful book! TRADE DIARY is most important!👨‍💻 Do you want to earn money on the exchange? I am sure that many people will answer this question in the affirmative-YES! Do you know what you need to do? Develop your own trading system and follow it clearly, recording all your trades and analyzing them after completion! If you don't, you probably don't earn any money. By the way, in a recent correspondence with Alexander Elderom, he confirmed it to me, said that of all that he did in trade — the most important thing is to KEEP a DIARY of TRANSACTIONS! 🙇 This book is very simple and written in a clear language. The author offers a working system, and if it does not suit you, gives you options for building your system. I believe that it can be read, and even reread again (who has already read it). After all, 10 years later, when I first met her, I have already become a different person and perceive her in a new way. And of all the TOP ideas in the book, I think the most important is the idea of building a table of the probability of the price move. You can see it below. If you've read this book, which idea did you like the most? What interesting and useful things have you learned and used in your work?
by ivan_gold_star_
Major Highs Cooking for Chinese Equities!📍 In this position, after clearing the knee-jerk reaction from covid flows we are starting to enter into chapter II, heavy protection. The flows have shown strength in drastic fashion; the apparently bottomless wallet of keynsian economics - suddenly showing a surprising amount of animation! You can see the impact of PBOC on Chinese Equities here: ...and now buyers had a simple win by testing the 2983 highs. The retrace idea was as follows; overprotecting a strategically important structure. The reward was to open up a retest of the support which was an all embracing struggle for the PBOC: In the long run, the positional struggle from CB's will come down to a struggle between healthcare on one hand and restraining capitalism on the other. It is extremely important to strive for re-openings in sensible fashion since the virus is still in circulation and lusts to expand. Health crisis cannot be solved with throwing money at it... not enough time has elapsed so the Stan Erck pump and dump we are watching with Novavax is set to flop and sadly put the final nail in the coffin for Global Equities. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
SShort
by ridethepig
7