CNY
USDCNH correction over, trend resumes Here we are coming to the end of the corrective wave within the underlying bull trend. The time has come to start getting to work on the top-side here again, this is a move we have been tracking for some months (see attached).
We are going to be exploring the speed limit of the dollar over the next few months so buckle up and get ready for some very large moves across FX . Like the rest of the USD board, markets have been corrective and now is the time to re-establish upside exposure. Initial targets for the weekly move come in at 6.97 .
There is scope to continue as far as 7.10 and 7.20.
Best of luck those who are navigating around the US-China trade flows.
v.1.1 May 2019 Recovery from Market Dip Thanks to Old CommunistsRecovery from the 2019 May dip in global equities markets from the hard work of Communists (current and ex)... ? China equities and the Chinese government actions on the Chinese yuan ( CNY ). Russian equities and the Russian ruble (RUB). And also JPY and Gold.
items not correlated2 earlier Recovery from 2019 May Market Dipitems not correlated to earlier Recovery from 2019 May Market Dip: PLNUSD, EURO STOXX, EURUSD, DXY, JPYUSD, GLD, USO
2019 Recovery from the May Market Dip Thanks to Old CommunistsRecovery from the 2019 May dip in global equities markets from the hard work of Communists (current and ex)... ? China equities and the Chinese government actions on the Chinese yuan (CNY). Russian equities and the Russian ruble (RUB).
CNY-denominated gold will hit a new high in the future.
Only valid for Chinese people. If you want to keep your wealth. You need physical gold. I don't understand the macro economy. I think the trade war is long-term and he will exacerbate the devaluation of the renminbi. If you are a Chinese compatriot. I hope you are lucky.
Watch for Breakout on USD/CNY, U.S. Dollar vs. Chinese YuanRecently, FX_IDC:USDCNY has been making bullish moves. First, the 65-period EMA crossing over the 200-period EMA: a golden cross. Price action began to consolidate in a fixed range, before making a false-breakout, quickly correcting itself. With increasing trade tensions between the U.S., China, and Mexico, another breakout from this supported range will be highly indicative of medium-term price movements.
USDCNY Blown Out and Moving HigherAs the trade tension heats up between the US and China, global traders have been putting pressure on the USDCNY.
On a technical basis,the RSI and MACD are strongly trending higher, indicating strong momentum higher for the USDCNY. Further, with the ADX firmly in trend, there are no signs of the rally in USDCNY slowing down.
If trade talks worsen or even fall apart, expect the USDCNY to move to 6.92.
USDCNH: Calm Before StormThe pair is in a consolidation, which looks like a triangle.
It will shoot up and could reach 7 handle.
USDCNY ready for (at least) small run upprice looks like its bottomed out on the weekly. An ema bust would definitely confirm bull trend again. Looks good for at least a measured move up. Could be more but can't tell yet.
US-SINO Trade Deal Could Make AUDUSD Reach 0.72500. LONG TRADE!With the trade deal certain to be reached soon between the world's two largest economy, AUSSIE stands to benefit as CHINA usually purchase many raw materials from Australia and therefore we could see AUSSIE appreciate against many pairs. However in this case against the USD the gains might not be that high as compared to other safehaven FX pairs such as CHF and JPY.
The weekly 50 EMA on the weekly chart is acting as a potential dynamic resistance and is preventing aussie from reaching new highs against the USD. In this trade setup, the long term channel has been broken and price retraced to daily 50 EMA. The primary target of 0.72500 lies where the weekly 50 EMA is present. The price is also building a constructive uptrend on the daily charts, where beneath the trendline we have our stop loss set. Below are the trade entry and exit information:
Instant entry: at around 0.71300 level
Stop loss: 0.70150
Take profit: 0.72500
RR: 1:1
Technical picture for this pair is pretty good however in the coming days it will be safe to monitor the fundamental aspects of this pair and see how it performs. shall there be any updates i will update in the thread below. please leave a LIKE if you find my ideas useful and follow me if you want to receive further trade ideas in the future. cheers
HSI is possible to make a double top or new time high againHang Seng Index has rally back above 292000, the low of Previous Wave one low. according to the Elliott wave rule: W4 should not enter W1. it's happening right now. so we could consider the previous one is not a impulse leg for downside movement. if it's not a downside one, we should be looking for a wave 5 rally then. a wave 5 rally should be looking for test the 2017 previous high. 33484 or even a new high. of course we might also face a failing wave 5 which is just below 33484.
Last Friday we have a high volume day with 120b, with 1/4/2019 have a gap open above 29200, these are all bullish technical signal. Fundamentally, Bloomberg said that yuan-denominated government bonds and policy bank securities would be added to the US$54 trillion Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index from April and would be phased in over a 20-month period. When fully implemented, local currency Chinese bonds would be the fourth largest currency component in the index behind the US dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen, Bloomberg said.
also the China and US trade talk give a positive atmosphere, in Beijing talk, it's rumor that a official welcome dinner is replace by a working dinner. so both are working very hard on details of the deal. if the China America trade deal hit the market, it will fuel the rally too.
Year of the Bull? Not according to the fundamentals...With large account deficits, disinflation and widening interest rate differentials there are many reasons to not be bullish China.
Whilst on the political side there is a desperate need to keep CNY stable and stronger because China needs to attract capital inflows for the second half of 2019.
Why?
Because they are trying to facilitate the process of inclusion in equity and bond indexes to make China more attractive for FDI.
Risks to this trade are for deterioration in Chinese macro data and if equity markets sell-off.
Best of luck all and thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, follows and etc.
CHFJPY approaching resistance, potential drop!
CHFJPY is approaching our first resistance at 112.707(horizontal swing high resistance , 76.4% Fibonacci retracement , 61.8% Fibonacci extension ) where we might see a drop in price to our first support at 108.082 (horizontal swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. 100% Fabonacci extension ).
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
DXY - Movements Driven mostly by CNYThe USDCNY seems to be the main component of USD moves lately.
Chinese data is becoming more influential and China is becoming
a clear protagonist in the FX market.
Buying Chinese Yuan or shorting the EURCNYThe ERUCNY pair seems to be making a retracement after the run-up that started in June and lasted until September 2018.
I will be trading this unleveraged. I am just buying and holding Chinese Yuan without using a broker that lends me money to leverage my bet.
Target 1 is at the 50% retracement of the June-September move.
Target 2 at the 68% and target 3 at the74% retracement level which also aligns with a support and resistance level.
I will sell the Yuan if or as it hits these targets or if the EURCNY pair moves above the Kumo.
USDCNH. Deeper correctionCorrection became complex and transformed into double three...at least.
50-61.8% Fib and the upside of the channel are targeted.
