What's going on with Bitcoin traded in CNY?Not sure if this is an error or something else. Just curious what's going on here with BTC looking to be completely flat to CNY in November?
CNY
GOLD, USD, YUAN: correlations explained by David BradyHi Guys,
just wanted to share an interesting articole by David Brady @GlobalProTrader on 2nd August. I found it after reading this tweet by @TaviCosta twitter.com that hit my curiosity.
Work in progress! Lol.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
Some Insight on the Trade War with ChinaHad some Trump Trade Politics come out this week about ‘eminent progress,’ being made with China on trade just before the November Elections. This was denied by all sorts of Washington insiders, but begs the question, when will we see some sort of resolution on trade with China?
I think it would be great for China to evolve from being a Globalist/Corporatist New World Order TOOL to switching to a stance of Integrity and Honor, dealing fairly with their trade partners, improving the standard of living in China, and forsaking the evils of Mercantilism. Literally Everybody, except the NWO, would be better off if they did this, but that would represent a cultural change for China, switching from their own insular little world, and taking advantage of those around them, to standing as a contributing member on the larger world stage.
Fundamentally what do we know? We know Xi and Trump are meeting in December, and that a quarter trillion dollars’ worth of trade is going from 10% to 25% in January. We also know Trump is going to slap tariffs on the rest of China’s exports at some point due to lack of progress.
Technically, looking at the Long-Term picture, the USDCNY is in the C Wave of a rising Running Flat, making a measured move that would take prices up in the 7.15 to 7.20 range. We also know that this move would complete an even higher degree B wave. In Elliott Wave flat corrections there is often a time relationship between the corrective waves. If the B and C wave as shown are added together, it would be close in the length of time to the A wave.
USDCNH. Correction continues. Target 6.73The last sideways consolidation shaped the notorious Triangle pattern in wave B as a junction of waves A and C of this big correction.
The drop could hit the area of 6.73 as market thinks about the deeper retracement lately.
Its all about the uncertainty of US-China relations and players tread the water to take their time.
USDCNH could retest 6.9590This pair was in the pullback after a breakout of the corrective structure.
Now it is breaking it up and then should retest the former top at the 6.9590
USDCNY Bear Divergence on the WeeklyThis idea is to showcase the same strategy we are planning on the daily on USDCNY. This is the same game plan as our daily idea on USDCNY. If we took this trade the strategy would tell us to place our stop above the high when the divergence is formed. Our profit target would be placed at 50% of the entire divergence move or 100% targeting the low of the first high that created the divergence. If the daily plays out using the same strategy as the weekly your target will be achieved. If the weekly plays out a bear divergence as it did here then our daily trade will get stopped out and we should look for another weekly divergence to enter using the same strategy.
Long term view of GBP/CNY target to 6 before end of 2026Long term view of GBP/CNY target to 6 before end of 2026.
USD/CNY Analysis: Mid-TermTechnical Analysis
i) Looks like a Cup and Handle formation for USD/CNY on the weekly chart. Looking to short play the Handle, looking for entries between 6.62 - 6.64 down to 6.48 level.
ii) Our most likely scenario (1), will have a pullback from the Handle down to the 6.48 level from their should look for some long positions up to 6.8 level.
*ii) However, as any good trader should know is that you shouldn't get married to a position or scenario. Therefore, for this scenario (2) at the 6.48 level instead of immedietaly closing position I advice that we re-assess the markets at that moment in time and see whether we should continue shorting down to 6.3 further easing into shorts on the ride down.
**A1 is a copy/shadow of the Bars Pattern taken from A.
Fundamental Analysis
The strength of the US economy which led the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year in conjunction with Trump's Tariffs has led the Chinese Yuan to fall more than 3% again the dollar in the past two weeks as tensions between the two largest economies has escalated.
Chinese companies have amassed huge leveles of US dollar debts in recent years through bond sales in Hong Kong, according to financial data provider Dealoagic. However, it seems that China has been preparing for the upcoming Trade War as Moody's Investors Service stated that 'll but five of the 49 rated South and Southeast Asian high-yield non-financial companies have protection in place against a significant rise in debt levels or borrowing costs, if their local currencies were to depreciate up to 15% against the US dollar. The 49 companies reported a combined US dollar debt total of $45.5 billion as of year-end 2017, or about 55% of their total outstanding debt'.
We can expect a further depeciation in the Yuan which shouldn't be to alarming for investors as it could make China's huge export industry more competitive globally as it makes Chinese products cheaper for buyers who pay in dollars. For which Trump has in the past repeatedly accused China of manipulating its currency's value in order to acheive this.
USDCNH. Correction is over. Another drop is ahead.The WXY countertrend corrective structure looks completed.
The minimum target for another drop is at the earlier low 6.2360.
MACD already sends bearish divergence signal and more over dropped below 0 into the negative territory.
Risk/Reward is over 2.
BLITZ. Sell USDCNH. R/R >2End of correction.
Catch the drop
Entry now (1.2790)
Stop 6.2967
Target 6.2358
AUDUSD bouyed by positive CNY data
Tonight we have US retail sales data to be released, with analysts forecasting strong data of 0.3% from last month’s -0.3%. If data comes out as expected or higher, we could see the beginning of some USD strength. However, even with USD strength, I’ll only look for trades with USD strength in USDJPY (bouncing off 106.50) or AUDUSD (buoyed by positive CNY data).
AUSSIE STEEL TARIFFS & TRADE PROTECTIONISM AIMED AT CHINAWe recommend selling AUDCAD targeting 0.9914 (50-day moving average), with stop loss 1.0150 (above recent highs) for a total reward-to-risk ratio of 2:1.
As discussed in Asia Pacific: US tariffs: A minor setback for now, 2 March 2018, the steel tariffs reinforce our view of AUD underperformance on the basis of late-cycle domestic dynamics, and an expected moderation in Australia’s terms of trade . Any new announcement of wider tariffs on US imports from China will not bode well for the AUD, given the currency’s high sensitivity to China’s growth outlook.
On the other hand, the loonie has already incorporated trade policy risk premium and a partial unwind, given Canada’s exemption to the steel and aluminum tariffs, could support CAD this week.
This trade recommendation is valid from the Wellington open Monday to the New York close Friday.
-Barclays FX Research
usd/cny is very revealing when it comes to BTCi dont know what this means, but someone who trades Forex will see the correlation here and see were going towards a (profitable, either +/- divergence). these "fiat" currencies play a role in btc/usd (just as the yuan depreciated, btc rised, what do people buy when dollar deprecates to secure their wealth? what do smart* adjusted to the environment were in do i should say.
BTC, another leg downBTC has developed a repeating fractal as show by the two sets of green arches on the chart. We are still moving within a bullish flag, and considering the last time we had a prolonged consolidation period was at $6k this multi week correction is well needed.
The green box shows short term support on 4 hour candles. The yellow box is a likely reversal zone as it is the bottom of our bullish flag, we have a major support line at 8k, and 200 day MA slightly above.
Fundamentally, much of the Asian market is observing the Chinese new year mid February, and that means more or less the entire month will be low volume. I don't expect a bullish break from this flag until March so it will be interesting to see how long we stay in the sub $10K region assuming we do hit the 200 day moving average which will be a very strong support.
For those of us who have been patient, bravo.
USDCNH. Possible wave count. WXYXZ. One more drop on the cards.It could take more time for this pair to finish a WXYXZ correction.
The last wave X could shape a triangular ABCDE formation.
Break below D point would signal a move down.
USDCNY Weekly - Pennant formingA bullish pennant is forming. China environmental reform will take a toll on growth and generate inflation. PBoC will probably not be very inclined to tighten policy as this might hurt economic expansion even more and will tolerate higher level of inflation, thus delivering lower real rates that will in the end help CNY depreciate.
Long USDCNH touching 3 year trend line & 200 Week SMA!After the 1.5 year trend break a while back the Yaun has been on a massive bull run(Remember the Yaun is stronger when the USDCNH falls), but now it is hitting the original bearish trend line at the same time as the Chinese government is making it easier to bet against the Yaun given that they are no longer worried about an uncontrolled bear market. The setup is prime. The RSI is also indicating that the USDCNH is over sold. I told you to short the dollar yaun at the last trend break and I was correct. Now I see another reversal on the horizon.
USDCNY. Filling the Mega Gap. Wave 5One of market wizards once told that to find the trend we should squeeze the chart.
Frankly speaking I thought USDCNY is in a correction before I squeezed the chart, the Monthly chart.
The pair had a Mega GAP in 1994.
It looks like we have an echo from that distant time in form of a downside impulse, which is filling the gap.
We could be in the last large wave down to hit the 5.8145 mark.
This idea is opposite to the primary market opinion of imminent devaluation of yuan.
