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Coal

RASP - It seems market is counting on dividends...... to be payed. Although the decision is not yet certain due to redomiciliation of head-company Evraz not yet launched by the management, my ElliotWave projection and price and volume analysis, shows that at least one more move higher to Aug's high and even beyond to 430-460 area could be considered by local short-term swing traders and or even position investors if personal risk-management parameters can tolerate higher single digit volatility. Thesis : if price holds above 319-307 support zone, and more preferable above 50D MA (red-line on the chart), any potential break-out above 360 pivot may be actionable for longs with tight 3-5% stoploss rules.
RUS:RASPLong
by artemfedorov
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NYSE:AMRLong
by bryandowningqln
US stocks are back leadingWorld markets bottomed on Spetember 2022 and during the recovery, European stocks AMEX:FEZ outperformed US stocks TVC:DJI for 9 months Nos, for the last 3 months, US stocks are back in the leadership as the DJI/FEZ ratio broke its downtrend back in April; just weeks before the AMEX:FEZ broke its trendline That is why relative strength is so important, sometimes gives leading signals And for the last 3 months, energy AMEX:XLE has been the leading sector, with coal being the ledading industry, the thing is that stocks like NYSE:CEIX , NYSE:AMR and NYSE:NRP are already extended Let's wait for a base formation in these leading stocks
AMEX:FEZ
by dpuleo19
Coal Futures ~ Snapshot TA / Neutral-Bullish AccumulationNewcastle Thermal Coal Futures breaking out of short-term downtrend + Neutral-Bullish Accumulation around 78.6% Fib Retracement. Still within larger downtrend after steep sell-off through later half of 2022 into 2023. (Coal) embers likely re-igniting due to recent China stimulus measures & other macro-economic influences, TBC. Highlighted preliminary Trading Range 174.05-129. On watch for further price action development &/or break out of range in either direction. Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers. Futures: ICEEUR:NCF1! ICEEUR:NCF2! ASX: ASX:WHC ASX:NHC ASX:YAL ASX:SMR ASX:TER
ICEEUR:NCF2!
by BlueHatInvestor
Let the Good Times Coal -- ARLP Bullish ContinuationAfter a 12 month, ~35% retracement, coal miner ARLP appears to be setting the stage for a continuation of the bullish trend that began in October 2020. After ARLP found a corrective low on a partial channel retrace, a nested bullish channel emerged, breaking to the upside simultaneously with the bearish channel that contained it. Volume is expanding to confirm this theory as of now. It's important to remember the unusually warm winter that put coal onto this corrective path. Odds are in favor of this not repeating, but time will tell how much assistance tickers in the energy space will get from Mother Nature. Stop loss conservatively set for $18.45, but a 2/3 retrace rule would open up a little more headroom to the 18.18 level.
NASDAQ:ARLPLong
by ChadBangs
Commodities: Coal Recovery Cycle Soon: Peabody Energy BTU ARCHColumn: How a bankruptcy filing shielded a big coal company from California’s climate-change lawsuits Peabody Energy, the nation’s largest private-sector coal company, joined several of its fellow coal producers in bankruptcy in 2016. Its main goal was to wriggle out from under more than $10 billion in debt it had incurred to expand, even as demand was sharply falling. But its bankruptcy filing has provided a collateral benefit: Peabody has been ruled immune from a lawsuit brought by three California jurisdictions blaming it and dozens of other fossil fuel companies for a sea level rise related to climate change. The ruling came last month from U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Barry S. Schermer of St. Louis, who presided over Peabody’s bankruptcy. On Monday, the California plaintiffs — the counties of Marin and San Mateo and the city of Imperial Beach — filed a notice that they’ll appeal Schermer’s ruling to federal court.
NYSE:BTULong
by noam_chom
1
Natural Gas: Has it Found a Bottom?Natural gas made a stunning rally to an all-time high, only to come crashing back down again. It's been a while since we last covered natural gas, so let's take a look at what's happened since then. The previous technical & seasonality setup played out perfectly with the RSI bouncing off the low and the rally into the winter season, hitting our profit target and extending further. This time, we're seeing a similar setup on a different timescale. Zooming out, natural gas has retraced the entire move it made in the past three years and is now back to pre-COVID levels. The question is, has natural gas found a bottom here? Looking at the weekly chart for natural gas over the past 20 years, we see an interesting picture. The weekly RSI has only broken past the 30 level five times over this two-decade period, and each time marked the rough bottom for natural gas. Fortunately, we're seeing this exact setup now, with prices seeming to find resistance at the $2 handle, which has also proven to be a reliable resistance level. Comparing the Henry Hub natural gas against the Dutch TTF natural gas, we can see the spread back to the lows when adjusting for the same unit measurement of MMBtu and in USD. On the fundamental side, this excerpt from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) sums up the outlook for Natural Gas vs Coal: “Natural gas-fired generation capacity in the United States has grown in recent years, although coal-fired generation has continued to decline. Lower coal-fired generation is due to a long-term trend of coal power plant retirements and increased competition with natural gas-fired combined-cycle plants when natural gas prices are low. A total of 11.5 gigawatts (GW) of U.S. coal-fired electricity generating capacity retired in 2022. No new coal-fired capacity has come online since 2013, and developers have not reported any plans to build new U.S. coal-fired capacity in the future. In contrast, nearly 6.1 GW of natural gas-fired capacity was added in 2022, according to our Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory.” Natural Gas saw a record high for the winter heating season. Additionally, close to 23% of US coal plants have plans to retire by 2029, and the last new coal plant that came online in the US was in 2013, 10 years ago. With coal plants being the second-largest source of electricity in the US and supply being cut, energy has to come from somewhere else. While the push for renewable energy continues, natural gas remains the main source of energy production. The dissipation of supply from retiring coal plants will likely be filled by natural gas. The reason being? Natural Gas currently remains most reliable form of energy source, while nuclear faces political pushbacks and Wind, Hydro & Solar have unpredictable/intermittent generation capacity. Lastly, the Dollar sits on a key level now. If broken, the weakening dollar could drive commodities prices higher en masse. All in all, the case to long natural gas from here seems reasonable, with the fundamental outlook for Natural gas still positive and the technical set-up pointing to a low. Taking a long position at the current levels of 2.186 and setting our stops at 1.85 and our first take profit level at 3.1 gives us a reasonable halfway point while setting our next take profit level at 3.8 gives us a higher profit potential if prices continue to rise. CME’s Henry Hub Natural gas is quoted in U.S. dollars and cents per MMBtu. Each 0.001 increment equal to 10$. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.eia.gov www.eia.gov blogs.worldbank.org
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by inspirante
4
Sasol Inv Cup and Handle just made it bearish to R221.11Inv Cup and Handle formed on Sasol. The price broken below the brim level. The gap was filled when the price went back up to close and form the right handle. Then the supply side kicked back in dropping it further. We also see bearish indicators. 200 > 21> 7 - Bearish RSI<50 (Lower highs) - Bearish Target R221.11 ABOUT Sasol is a global energy and chemicals company based in South Africa. It was founded in 1950 and was originally named the South African Coal, Oil and Gas Corporation. The company is primarily focused on the production of synthetic fuels, chemicals, and gas. Sasol is one of the world's leading producers of synthetic fuels. Sasol operates in more than 30 countries around the world and employs approximately 30,000 people. The company is listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange. Sasol is one of the largest producers of low-emission transportation fuels in the world, including synthetic diesel, jet fuel, and naphtha. In addition to its energy and chemicals operations, Sasol is involved in a number of other businesses, including mining, power generation, and technology.
JSE:SOLShort
by Timonrosso
$WHC watching waitingWHC ran out of steam and couldn't take out the previous high, Looking like it needs to "recharge" which in stockland world mean it needs to shake the fark out of the weak Coal Tourists make them sell scoop up the liquidity then run it past the highs. If it breaks below range low marked on the chart approx 7.76 this will trigger a cascade of stops pushing price lower maybe below a Key Previous Macro ATH and 2010 ATH.. If this happen il be looking for a reclaim of these levels along with keeping an Eye on Newcastle Coal Futures for a similar setup. This is the trigger and plan and it a macro swing trade so could take weeks or even months. Either way,, all we do it wait and look for more ops
ASX:WHC
by gillman_hugh
2
AUD/USD steadies after banner dayThe Australian dollar has posted limited losses on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6822, down 0.17%. The Australian dollar rocketed higher on Wednesday, rising 1.6% and hitting a 3-week high. This followed reports that China was considering easing its ban on imports of Australian coal. The ban has been in place since 2020, but relations between Australia and China have improved since the new Australian government took office. The move would bolster the Australian economy, although the Australian government was surprisingly low-key, saying that the coal industry had found alternative markets. China is Australia's number one trading partner, which means that developments in China have a significant impact on Australia and the direction of the Australian dollar. The sharp U-turn in China's covid policy, from zero-covid to easing restrictions should give a boost to the Chinese economy in the long term. However, we can expect China's economy to slow down and even contract in the first quarter, due to the surge in Covid cases which is dampening demand for services and also lowering production as many workers report in sick. This could pose a major headwind for the Australian dollar early in 2023. The Federal Reserve minutes reflected the hawkish message that Jerome Powell had for the markets at the December meeting. FOMC members committed to maintaining a restrictive policy while inflation remained unacceptably high, saying that more evidence was needed to show that inflation was on a "sustained downward path to 2 per cent". The minutes noted that several members warned against "prematurely loosening monetary policy". Despite the Fed's hawkish stance, there is still a dissonance between the Fed's message and market pricing. The minutes noted that no FOMC members expect any rate cuts this year, while the markets have priced in a possible small reduction by the end of 2023 and have forecast a funds rate peak at 4.5%-4.75%. The Fed, on the other hand, expects rates to hit 5% or higher. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said on Wednesday that rates could rise to 5.4% or even higher if inflation doesn't head lower. AUD/USD has support at 0.6703 and 0.6620 There is resistance at 0.6841 and 0.6969
by OANDA
Coal = Gold 3.0 - The New Paradigm Breakoutor this may be a 2B double top extension. (see Bitcoin Nov-2021 2B top, or see Gold-ounce double top from Ukraine tensions in Spring 2022) I think that the coal new paradigm pump is a sell the news event, energy supply tensions are easing and in the USA the domestic stress of a Rail Workers Union strike will be resolved within weeks. Strong Supply flows will dampen the heightened speculation about Coal companies going up forever (with their notably favorable P/E and P/FCF rates) "Years ago, I recognized my kinship with all living things, and I made up my mind that I was not one bit better than the meanest on earth... While there is a lower class, I am in it, while there is a criminal element, I am of it, and while there is a soul in prison, I am not free..."
NYSE:CEIX
by noam_chom