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Cocoa

MY COCOA LONG IDEA 01/11/2024*Did not enter this trade yet* Direction: Long SL: 7425.4 Indicators: 1. MA (20,50,100,200) 2. Trendline - Algo 3. Support and Resistance 4. I also use MT5 - Tradingcentral tools 5. Fib Time Frame: 4h (I also use other time frames mainly 1D because I like to trade for long period of time) Technical: 1. MA 20 (Yellow) is very bearish and below the MA 100 and 200 (Purple and Red) but I expect a reversal in this pattern. 2. Red trendline was broken previously so I'm looking for a breakthrough the green trendline. 3. Price respected the Support zone and is rising towards the fib level at 8216.2. 5. Tradingcentral tool signaling RISE on all time frames signifying a very bullish Price action. Fundamental and economic: 1. COCOA is a very tricky commodity but we can simplify this by looking at the COT data where they were short about 1-2 weeks ago making a short-term bearish setups and I think we are past that phase because in the long run COT is bullish on COCOA. 2. Q4 historically is bullish for this pair according to the seasonal indicator by Tradingview. 3. US Elections, Halloween, Winter season, and Christmas is an influence in the Demand of Cocoa.
VANTAGE:COCOALong
by stingotho
2
COCA SHORT 11/08/24Hello everyone, Hope you got to spend a nice weekend, let's get back to work. First of all the RSI is getting dangerously high, meaning a very likely fall in the few days. Further than the technicals, there's concrete evidence among our expertise information supplier that tomorrow is going to be a spectacular drawdown. We drew a red line in order to show you the point where you should put your SL, but it is obvious that tomorrow is the vengeance of our failure of Friday (which we are really sorry for btw) Tomorrow is all in short, see you after for a debrief.
PEPPERSTONE:COCOAShort
by edl75
2
COCOA SHORT 09/08Hello everyone, It is now clear that we're in a downtrend, as the RSI always rises back up after each low. So there are several possible scenarios, but the most logical one would be a sharp fall towards the precedent lower low, as show the green and orange paths. The red path shows the low probability path which grows back up to close the gap that was not closed yesterday, but it is highly unlikely. We advise you to sell as soon as it opens but try to place a tight SL somewhere not too high because again, the change of a trend with cocoa can get very ugly very quick. Hope it helps.
PEPPERSTONE:COCOAShort
by edl75
COCOA LONG THEN SHORT 08/08Hello everyone, It seems like we might have reached the end of the uptrend, considering external factors and technicals such as a growing RSI on the high scales indicating a change of direction very soon. However, it seems that there will be a gap or a downfall at first as usual, then a moderate uptrend which will start to collapse around 16/17h, when the liquidity it at its prime. We advise you to not open any position past this time because the end of a trend with Cocoa can get very ugly things. Hope to help you tomorrow with this, may the Lord be with us.
PEPPERSTONE:COCOALong
by edl75
COCOA LONG WEDNESDAY 07/08Hello everyone, Today is a little bit special because we've incorporated our mistakes and taken some advance by adding more downforce to our patterns. First of all, we predict a big down gap at the beginning, because of night time factors. Then, it might keep going down for a while, but it will eventually come back up, first to close the gap and then because our study shows it is almost sure, even more than today and yesterday. Our advice is to buy when the gap appears, try not to be too quick, let the price fall if it wants to, but as soon as it goes back up, buy. Hope to help you all !
PEPPERSTONE:COCOALong
by edl75
COCOA LONG MONDAY 05/08Our team of experts posts our first official forecast for our most well known asset, COCOA, with a good start because it seems that it is fully going up. Because of technicals, weather and cocoa data analysis, even though the small red area at the top might reject the price if it gets too high, it seems that it could go up to 8500/600 before the closure tomorrow night. We drew the green semi circle to show you the global movement towards the next days, even though Cocoa stays really volatile. Our advice is to buy at the opening, there might be a very little drawdown but for the 15 first minutes maximum, so buy as soon as it opens until 17/18 without any risks.
PEPPERSTONE:COCOALong
by edl75
XAUUSD FORECAST 2MWelcome to this new page, we're a team of experts working 24/7 on metals and cocoa really detailed forecasts. Our main resources are based on news, technicals and our 3 year experience gives us a true credibility that you will see as long as we keep posting. Please keep in your mind that : - we're no professionals/counselors/financial advisers - you shall not place money that you should not if you can't live without it - we reject any kind of responsibility in case of a loss, this account only gives indications and further information regarding XAUUSD and COCOA, you and you only are in charge of your money and don't have to trust us This is and will be a short series about XAUUSD, our team has come to the conclusion that for the next month nothing much will happen, some kind of fall between the big rally to the 3000s.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by edl75
Ivory Coast Expects Cocoa Rebound Next Season on Better Weather Country expects to harvest 2 million tons in 2024-25 crop year Futures prices have dipped on improved cocoa crop outlook Ivory Coast’s cocoa output is expected to rebound next season — helping ease a global supply squeeze that pushed prices past records — as the world’s top grower banks on better weather. The West African producer is likely to harvest 2 million tons of the chocolate-making ingredient in the 2024-25 crop year that starts Oct. 1, according to people familiar with the matter, who cited early pod counting. The outlook for the upcoming year compares with the 1.8 million tons the International Cocoa Organization estimates the country will harvest by the end of the current season in September. Ivory Coast’s output averaged 2.2 million tons in the five years before 2023-24. The country has already sold 800,000 tons of the 2024-25 harvest on the forward market, the people said, asking not to be named because they were not authorized to discuss the matter. However, they added forward sales have since been paused by the industry regulator Le Conseil Cafe-Cacao. The CCC plans a combination of forward and spot sales in the future, as part of a marketing reform. A mix of bad weather, disease, and aging trees in top growers Ivory Coast and Ghana drove this season’s slump and saw New York cocoa futures soar past $11,000 a ton earlier this year. Prices have since eased on optimism about improving weather conditions in West Africa. Ghana is also expecting a better crop next season. Ivory Coast is also cracking down on the smuggling of cocoa beans to neighboring countries which will help boost supplies, said the people. An estimated 200,000 tons of beans were smuggled this season, they added. A spokesperson for the CCC declined to comment when contacted by phone on Friday.
PEPPERSTONE:COCOA
by Elite_Forex
Macro Monday 50 - The Ivory Coast~The Cocoa Centre of the WorldMacro Monday 50 The Ivory Coast ~ The Cocoa Centre of the World This week we will look at the investment opportunities presenting in the Ivory Coast which is the world’s largest producer of cocoa. This booming economy is expected to continue grow at a 6.6% GDP growth rate which competes with the likes of India (covered on a previous Macro Monday). Today we will cover the Ivory Coast Stock Index - the BRVM Composite Index, the cocoa futures market and also a little history on the west African region. We will also learn a little about the uniqueness of the cacao tree. All of this information is valuable to anyone considering investing in the cocoa markets, the Ivory Coast or West Africa. If you’re an investor seeking unique commodity exposure or seeking to plant some seeds in a sprouting economy, you’ve come to right place. I will also review cocoa through a commodity lens and why many factors present cocoa as a unique trading opportunity and a commodity worth keeping an eye on. The West Africa’s produce 70% of global Cocoa Currently 70% of the world’s cocoa beans are produced in West Africa by the Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon. If you ate chocolate this week, it very likely came from one these countries. The Ivory Coast produced 2.2 million tons of cocoa in 2022 accounting for over 30% of the global supply of cocoa, making it the largest cocoa producer in the world. In the 2023/24 cocoa season this reduced to 1.8 million tons. Also known as Côte d’Ivoire, the Ivory Coast is joined to the east by the world’s 2nd largest cocoa producer Ghana, which produced 1.1 million tons of cocoa in 2022 (approx. 20% of the global supply). In the 2023/24 season this reduced to 820,000 tons. The recent decline of cocoa production from the two largest producers indicates the 2024 season could spawn a supply shock in cocoa, increasing the value of the commodity. Many factors have caused this decline in production some of which we will discuss later in this article. Other notable cocoa producers include Indonesia (667,000 tons), Ecuador (337,000 tons), Brazil, Peru, and the Dominican Republic. Together, all the countries combined with the aforementioned Ivory Coast and Ghana contribute the majority of the world’s cocoa supply. Cocoa is essential to the chocolate industry as are other products derived from cocoa beans. The production and trade of cocoa are vital for the economies of these countries, providing income for millions of small farmers and workers involved in the cocoa supply chain. Agriculture in these regions are driving major financial interest. Banks and telecommunications firms are growing rapidly, and all from producing one of the worlds most desired foods. Top 6 Exports from the Ivory Coast Ivory Coast’s main exports and their values in USD billions based on the most recent data from 2023: 1. Cocoa Beans: $3.33 bln 2. Gold: $2.12 bln 3. Rubber: $2.11 bln 4. Refined Petroleum: $1.88 bln. 5. Cocoa Paste: $1.08 bln. 6. Fruits and Nuts (incl cashews & coconuts): $1.2 billion. The Ivory Coast Economy is in Growth mode The GDP growth for Ivory Coast in 2024 is expected to be robust. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the country’s GDP growth is forecasted at 6.6% for the year. This positive outlook is consistent with Ivory Coast’s trend of strong economic performance in recent years. The growth is driven by a diverse economy with strong sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services, contributing to its status as one of the leading economies in the West African region. The French Connection In case you’re wondering in, 1893 Ivory Coast was made a French colony. In 1904, Ivory Coast became part of French West Africa. During World War I and World War II, Ivorian soldiers fought for France. The Ivory Coast is a Francophone country, and in 2024, French is spoken by 10 million people out of 28.9 million (33.61%). Abidjan is the city with the third biggest French speaking population anywhere in the world. It is also the fourth most populous city in Africa, with about 4.7million people living there. In international relations, Françafrique (English pronunciation: Frawn-sah-frique) is France's sphere of influence (or pré carré in French, meaning 'backyard') over former French and (also French-speaking) Belgian colonies in sub-Saharan Africa. At present Côte d'Ivoire is Frances leading trading partner in the CFA franc zone (WAEMU countries) and the third-largest in sub-Saharan Africa, after South Africa and Nigeria. France is Côte d'Ivoire's second-largest trading partner after China. As you can see, the Ivory Coast has very strong trading ties in Europe. Demographic Snapshot - Ivory Coast The population is c. 30 million with a median age of 19 years old. 60% of the population are under the age of 25 (as of 2020 figures) presenting a very young work abled demographic. Ivory Coast’s Booming Stock Market in 2023 The Ivory Coast had a booming stock market in 2023 and the country as a whole appears to be presenting great economic strives and monumental investment potential. Lets have a look at the Ivory Coast Stock Index. The Ivory Coast Stock Index - The BRVM Composite The Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières (BRVM) is the regional stock exchange of the member states of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU): Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. I have provided a map on another platform of these countries of which the link in is my profile. BRVM Composite Components The BRVM Composite is made up of 46 stocks with 39 of these companies based in the Ivory Coast and 7 based in neighboring countries. Many of the companies operate through individual subsidiary’s in each of the WAEMU countries. The Ivory Coast index provides an interesting mix of growth stocks in the Banking, cocoa production and manufacturing alongside other fruit and nuts, gold mining, telecommunications and tourism. The country is commodity rich and has the workforce to produce at scale. The BRVM trades in the West African CFA franc, which is usually abbreviated as XOF. This currency is used by the countries in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), providing a stable and uniform platform for financial and economic activities within the region. The BRVM experienced a remarkable year in 2023, with a notable performance that saw the share price of eight stocks climb into double digit figures. Additionally, the stock market’s total value made a historic leap, surpassing the CFA franc 8 trillion threshold (equivalent to approximately $13 billion USD) for the first time ever in Sept 2023. The BRVM Composite top 5 companies by Market Cap 1.Sonatel, AKA Societe Nationale des Telecom has a market cap of CFA 1.93T ($3.2 billion USD). Accounts for approx. 20% of the entire BRVM Stock Exchange equity market. -A major player in the telecommunications sector in West Africa, providing a range of services including fixed-line telephony, mobile communication, internet, and television. 2. Orange Côte d’Ivoire has a market cap of CFA 1.73T ($2.9 billion USD) is listed on the BRVM Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “ORAC”. Also accounts for approx. 20% of the BRVM. -Orange Côte d’Ivoire is a subsidiary of the French group Orange and is a leader in telephony in Côte d’Ivoire, offering fixed, mobile, and internet services, as well as mobile payment services with Orange Money. 3.Societe Generale de Banques has a market cap of CFA 631 billion ($1 billion USD) -A subsidiary of the French multinational bank Société Générale, it offers a wide range of banking products and services to individuals, corporations, institutions, and professionals in Ivory Coast. 4.Ecobank (ETI) has a market cap of CFA 396 billion ($636 million USD) -Also known as Ecobank Transnational Inc. (ETI), it is a pan-African banking conglomerate with operations in 33 African countries. It serves both wholesale and retail customers and is a leading regional banking group in West Africa and Central Africa. 5.Coris Bank has a market cap of CFA 328 billion ($525 million USD) -This is the second-largest banking group in Burkina Faso, providing retail, corporate, and Islamic banking services. It also offers a variety of banking products and services, including e-banking and foreign exchange. As you can see in terms of USD these companies are only sprouting and have a lot of growth potential. These companies are obviously benefiting from major agricultural and infrastructural growth in this blooming economy. Now onto the chart. The BRVM Composite Chart is presently not available on Trading View however you can view it on Investing.com. When it becomes available here I will share it. ✅The smooth moving average on the chart is the 200 day SMA (or the 40 week moving average) which appears to have acted as float for price and is sloping upwards with diagonal support. ✅We can clearly observe an ascending triangle also which suggests much higher prices are plausible. ⬜️ At present this chart is not available on TradingView (even though it is powered by TradingView on another platform). I have requested it to be added to allow us to structure a trade more systematically. If it is added I will share the chart on TradingView so that we can monitor it more closely and create and interactive chart to track. Now lets take a look at the Cocoa Futures chart. Cocoa Futures Chart (ticker: ICEUS:CC1! ) This is the Subject Chart Above at the heading of the artical. The cocoa futures chart is trending strongly bullish. ✅We have found support off the 21 week SMA (blue line) several times since 2022 and we can expect this to continue with such a bullish trend in place. ☑️In the event price closes below the 21 week we can then start looking for a sizable correction down to $6,545. Outside of this, the chart is looking great. ✅IMO the most likely outcome is for the price to blast on up to an all-time high or consolidate sideways until the end of the Sept 2024, after which we would likely have a DSS Bressert cross and continue to move higher. Consolidation after a 375% + increase in price since Jan 2023 would be fairly standard procedure. This includes the scenario of a fall to $6,545 which I would still consider a consolidation move, however I find this less likely of an outcome. Many factors are driving the price of Cocoa up, we will look at some key factors and concerns in the cocoa market below. The Cacao Tree Requires a Specific Climate to Grow Cacao is cocoa in its raw, less-processed form. Cacao grows from trees called Theobroma cacao. Cacao trees are native to South America, West Africa, and some countries in Asia. Its quite incredible how the plant can only thrive in very specific regions called Equatorial Zones. The 3 main species of Theobroma Cacao prefer an equatorial-humid climate, with nearly year-round constant specific humid temperatures. The areas are often coastal or have coastal drafts, have low elevations and super dense humidity. The Cacoa Tree doesn’t mind the heat as much as Coffee Arabica, but it absolutely needs nearly super-saturated water vapor in the atmosphere to survive. The cacao leaf is not very glossy, so if the air is too dry, it will lose all of its water to the detriment of its fruit. Roughly 35 cacao seeds are generated from each hanging fruit which is then fermented and roasted to create our beloved chocolate taste. This process can take a few days to a number of weeks. The raw form of cacao is much more bitter and can be difficult to eat, albeit I recently discovered it is a great coffee replacement. Interestingly, Both are the seed of a fruit — the coffee "cherry" and the cacao pod that contains 35seeds or beans. While much of chocolate's flavor is developed during a lengthy fermentation process, for coffee, a short fermentation has less impact on flavor and is more a means of separating the seed from the fruit. Both Coffee and Cocoa offer natural stimulants; caffeine for coffee and theobromine for Cacao. The main Cacao crop growing season is from Oct - Mar (yielding c.80% of annual produce) and the secondary season is May to Aug which yields c. 20%. At present a tree virus is causing significant issues reducing crops by up to 50%, we will discuss this below. Cocoa Virus Killing up to 50% of Cocoa trees Unfortunately, a rapidly spreading virus threatens the health of the cacao tree and the dried seeds from which chocolate is made, jeopardizing the global supply of the world's most popular treat. As noted above, about 50% of the world's chocolate originates from cacao trees in the West Africa countries of Ivory Coast and Ghana. The damaging virus is attacking cacao trees in Ghana, resulting in harvest losses of between 15 - 50%. Spread by small insects called mealybugs that eat the leaves, buds and flowers of trees, the cacao swollen shoot virus disease (CSSVD) is among the most damaging threats to the root ingredient of chocolate. "This virus is a real threat to the global supply of chocolate" Benito Chen-Charpentier (professor of mathematics at The University of Texas at Arlington and an author of "Cacao sustainability) Ghana has lost more than 254 million cacao trees in recent years, and the best measures to address the virus are an expensive vaccine (heightening cost) that renders a smaller plant (reducing yield). Farmers are attempting to separate the plants by greater distances however, this results in a similar issue with lessor plants and reduced supply/returns. In summary the virus could cause a major global cocoa shortage causing a major supply shock to the cocoa industry, even the news of this event could cause the value of cocoa to rise. Combine this with the secondary season ending in Aug 2024 poorly, and we are setting up for a cocoa shortage coming into the cocoa demand Christmas season. Ivory Coast and Senegal Clear Leaders in West Africa Finally, I wanted to recognize that the Ivory Coast is not on their own and many of the countries around them are also thriving. The Ivory Coast and Senegal both play significant roles in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). The Ivory Coast is often considered the powerhouse of the union, contributing a substantial portion of the region’s GDP. It is the driving economy within WAEMU, with a notable share of the nominal GDP of the zone. On the other hand, Senegal is recognized as the second-largest economy in the WAEMU area and has been making strides in economic growth and development through initiatives like the Emerging Senegal Plan (PSE). While Dakar, Senegal, hosts the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO), which is crucial for the financial stability and monetary policy of the WAEMU, the Ivory Coast’s economic weight within the union is also significant. Therefore, both countries can be seen as key financial centers in their own right within the WAEMU context, with the Ivory Coast leading in economic size and Senegal in its strategic role hosting the BCEAO. The Hunt for West African Brokerages I am in the process of hunting for safe and reliable brokers in the Ivory Coast and West Africa’s region. I have found some but I could not recommend them until I do some testing and get some opinions. If anyone has any information on this, I would be very happy to have it and share it with the community here. In any event, I will look for easier indexes also that include exposure to the these countries and to Cocoa. Interactive Charts on TradingView All these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next few years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide to see how Ireland's stock market has performed. I hope its helpful. I wrote this and consumed a whole bar of 85% Lindt Chocolate….hard to believe the journey it took to reach here. Thanks again for coming along, PUKA
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by PukaCharts
1
[CC] Cocoa bull run is over ?Following an explosive surge that propelled Cocoa ( NYSE:CC ) to the $1000 mark, the price is now encountering resistance around this significant psychological level. Observing this resistance, there's anticipation for a correction towards the area of interest defined by my TP zone. While a revisit to the $1000 level in the coming days is plausible, it's probable that we'll witness a corrective phase following this impressive bull run. The market sentiment suggests a potential pullback as the price encounters resistance and investors book profits. In summary, while the short-term outlook may involve another touch of the $1000 level, caution is warranted as a correction seems increasingly likely in the aftermath of this remarkable uptrend in Cocoa ( NYSE:CC ). Great Trade !
ICEUS:CC1!Short
by ArnoSG
CHARTOLOGY 101 --- 43 years in the makingThe bigger the pattern the bigger the consolidation the more explosive the move how about this Chart Porn? Cup and handle I expect the log tgt not only to be made but surpassed given yesterdays event's in #baltimore Yup Massive east coast supply chain disruptions to be expected Ports jammed Aviation fuel disruptions Major economic ripples could transpire form this the east coast is home to 120 million people I believe .. Wow Stock up on your Cadbury's and many other things ... :0
ICEUS:CC1!
by BallaJi
3 Commodities to watch closely this week Cocoa: Cocoa futures hit $9,400 a ton for the first time ever, marking a 45% increase in March. Poor harvests in key producing countries such as Ivory Coast and Ghana, where adverse weather conditions, including heavy rains from El Niño and subsequent extreme heat, have led to supply shortages. The Ivory Coast cocoa regulator anticipates a 33% decrease in production, from 600,000 MT to 400,000 MT. European Gas: European natural gas futures are trading near €29/MWh, maintaining levels last seen in early February following a terrorist attack on a concert hall near Moscow. Additional attacks (related to Russia war on Ukraine and not the terrorist attack) on energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine have further fueled supply concerns. However, prices could ease as Europe moves beyond the heating season. Gold: Last week, the US Federal Reserve maintained its expected 75-basis points reduction in the Fed Fund rate this year, aligning with previous communications. This contributed to gold reaching a new all-time high before a subsequent decline. Analysis might suggest a bullish pattern forming, with the possibility of gold surpassing $2,200/oz. and testing the ATH near $2,225/oz., while maintaining support levels around $2,150/oz.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets