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Cocoa

The Cocoa Code - Smart Money is Preparing for a Bullish MoveCocoa is setting up for a long trade upon a confirmed daily bullish trend change. The fundamentals underlying this market suggest a bullish move of some significance is brewing, and would confirm if we see a daily bullish entry trigger. Commercials at extreme in long positioning relative to last 26 weeks of positioning. Advisor Sentiment Index at bearish extreme, a great contrarian signal when juxtaposed with the commercials positioning. Open Interest is at a 3+ year low. Low levels of open interest are generally associated with market bottoms. Valuation measure against Treasuries & Gold shows Cocoa is undervalued. True Seasonal tendency for Cocoa to rally into April. Front month premium implies the commercials want this commodity so bad that they are willing to pay more to acquire it now than later in the future. This implies a commercially driven bull market is at hand. 130 day cycle points to bullish momentum for Cocoa until May. Accumulation by the commercials is evident via the ProGo & Ultimate Oscillator divergence. What does this all mean? It means the fundamental conditions underlying this marketplace point towards a bullish move on the horizon.
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by Tradius_Trades
COCOA Commodities CFD Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑💰🐱‍👤 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the COCOA Commodities CFD Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on! Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 11.600 (swing Trade) Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest low or high level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 9.600 (or) Escape Before the Target Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental & Positioning: COCOA Commodities CFD Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors. Bearish Factors Improved Weather Conditions: Improved weather conditions in West Africa, the world's largest cocoa-producing region, could lead to increased cocoa production and lower prices. Increased Global Production: Global cocoa production is expected to increase in the 2024-25 season, which could lead to a surplus and lower prices. Weak Demand from Chocolate Manufacturers: Chocolate manufacturers, who are the largest consumers of cocoa, have been reducing their demand due to high prices and weak consumer demand. Speculative Selling: Speculators have been net sellers of cocoa futures, which could lead to a price decline. Technical Resistance: Cocoa prices are approaching technical resistance levels, which could lead to a price reversal. Global Economic Slowdown: A global economic slowdown could lead to reduced demand for cocoa and lower prices. Competition from Alternative Commodities: Cocoa faces competition from alternative commodities such as coffee and sugar, which could lead to reduced demand and lower prices. Bearish Scenarios Global Production Surplus: If global cocoa production exceeds demand, it could lead to a surplus and lower prices. Economic Downturn: A global economic downturn could lead to reduced demand for cocoa and lower prices. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
SKILLING:COCOAShort
by Thief_Trader
1
COCOA - We had a good drop, but demand is still high,so we go upHi guys, recently had a rollecoaster with Cocoa , but eventually the price went back and stabilized, now I am coming back to it hence , I see that there has been an ascending channel formulated. The overall technical overview is that the asset is indeed overbought, but at this current stage the fundamentals are out-weighting the technicals, bringing up the prices. From a fundamental perspective, currently for yet another year we have had weather problems which causes the nearby crop of Cocoa in the Ivory coast which is the biggest exporter will be limited in spring as analysts are predicting. Additionally the weather circumstances have lead to an almost two year hiatus where we have problems with the supply of Cocoa, while the demand remains to be high. ‘Like coffee, chocolate is one of those things consumers are reluctant to give up. Poster items for inelastic demand.’ Entry: 11,203 Target 1: 12,404 Target 2: 13,036 Target 3: 14,026 As always my friends happy trading! P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my channel so you can follow up with me in private!
PEPPERSTONE:COCOALong
by DG55Capital
2
"COCOA" Commodity CFD Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "COCOA" Commodity CFD market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long & Short entry. 👀 Be wealthy and safe trade 💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : You can enter a Bull or Bear trade at any point after the breakout. Buy entry above 11,800 Sell Entry below 10,000 Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest Pullbacks. Goal 🎯: Bullish Robbers TP 13,600 (or) Escape Before the Target Bearish Robbers TP 8,800 (or) Escape Before the Target Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️ The COCOA Market is expected to move in a Bullish direction, driven by the following key factors: 🔵Macro Factors: Global Economic Growth: Rising global economic growth, particularly in emerging markets, is expected to increase demand for cocoa. Inflation: Moderate inflation levels in major cocoa-consuming countries are expected to support cocoa prices. Currency Fluctuations: A weaker US dollar is expected to support cocoa prices, as it makes cocoa more competitive in international markets. 🟡Fundamental Factors: Supply and Demand Imbalance: The global cocoa market is expected to face a supply shortage in the 2022/23 crop year, supporting prices. Weather Conditions: Favorable weather conditions in major cocoa-producing countries, such as Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, are expected to support cocoa yields. Certification and Sustainability: Growing demand for certified and sustainable cocoa is expected to support prices for high-quality cocoa beans. 🟠Sentimental Factors: Investor Sentiment: Positive investor sentiment, driven by improving global economic growth and supply chain disruptions, is expected to support cocoa prices. Market Positioning: The commitment of traders (CoT) report shows that hedge funds and other large speculators are net long cocoa, indicating a bullish sentiment. Technical Analysis: Cocoa prices have broken out above a key resistance level, indicating a bullish trend. - Bullish Sentiment: 83% of clients are long on COCOA, indicating a strong bullish trend. - Bearish Sentiment: 17% of clients are short on COCOA, indicating a relatively weak bearish trend. - Neutral Sentiment: No explicit data available, but we can infer it's relatively low given the strong bullish trend. 📌Please note that sentiment analysis can change rapidly and may not always reflect the actual market performance. These percentages are based on current market data and may not reflect future market movements. That this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
SKILLING:COCOALong
by Thief_Trader
Falling Wedge Pattern: Cocoa FuturesThis is the map of how to trade this rare chart pattern. This is a textbook sample of Falling Wedge continuation pattern that played out with impressive accuracy. We have a strong uptrend in 2024 that has been changed by a large consolidation that took place for the rest of 2024 as it has built the large Falling Wedge (continuation) pattern. One should focus on the following crucial points and measurements: 1. breakout point where price rises above trendline resistance it acts as a buy entry trigger (green segment) 2. stop loss - it is located below the lowest valley preceding breakout (red segment) 3. widest part of the pattern - use it to measure the distance to the target adding it to breakout point (blue arc) 4. target (yellow dashed segment) all of above key parameters are highlighted on the chart. It's amazing how accurately the price grew towards the target booking over 60% profit. Next time you can use this map as a guidance.
ICEUS:CC1!Education
by aibek
Cocoa Plunge Ahead – Targeting $9,853!📊 Trade Setup: Entry Price: 10,877 Take Profit: 9,853 (at previous low) Stop Loss: 11,883 (above the gap level) 📈 Analysis: The previous buy trade in the channel hit the target perfectly by closing the gap and reaching our take profit before dropping significantly. Now, with the current bearish sentiment in the market, the setup points to another potential sell trade. Given the price rejection near the gap level and the overall market pressure, we expect a further decline towards the previous low at $9,853, where strong support may come into play. 🎯 Target: $9,853: Key support zone (previous low) 🔹 Risk Management: Stop loss at $11,883, just above the gap level, where price may encounter resistance and trigger further downside. ⚡ Do you expect Cocoa to continue its bearish trend, or could we see a reversal? Drop your thoughts below! ⚡
SKILLING:COCOALong
by ValchevFinance
4
Cocoa: Potential Reversal Opportunity After Recent DropAfter capturing the significant drop in Cocoa prices over the past few days, we could now be looking at a favorable setup for a reversal to the upside. Key Observations Demand Zone Reaction: Price has entered a major Demand Zone , collected liquidity, and is showing a sharp bounce directly from the opening. RSI Recovery: The RSI is rebounding strongly from oversold levels, signaling a possible shift in momentum. Gap to Be Filled: There is a visible gap between 11,750 and 11,100 that aligns with our upward target. Filling this gap could provide the momentum for a bullish run. Trade Setup Take Profit: 11,750 (gap fill target). Stop Loss: 9,525 (placed below the Demand Zone). Risk Management Reminder Cocoa is known for its volatility. Always apply proper risk management and adjust your position size accordingly to protect your capital. Conclusion This setup provides a solid risk-reward opportunity for traders watching the Cocoa market.
SKILLING:COCOALong
by ValchevFinance
Can One Bean's Rally Reshape Global Markets?The extraordinary trajectory of cocoa in 2024 has rewritten the commodities playbook, outperforming traditional powerhouses like oil and metals with a staggering 175% price surge. This unprecedented rally, culminating in record prices of nearly $13,000 per metric ton, reveals more than just market volatility—it exposes the delicate balance between global supply chains and environmental factors. West Africa's cocoa belt lies at the heart of this transformation, where Ivory Coast and Ghana face a complex web of challenges. The convergence of adverse weather conditions, particularly the harsh Harmattan winds from the Sahara and widespread bean disease, and the encroachment of illegal gold mining operations, has created a perfect storm that threatens global chocolate production. This situation presents a compelling case study of how localized agricultural challenges can cascade into global market disruptions. The ripple effects extend beyond just chocolate manufacturers and commodities traders. This market upheaval coincides with similar pressures in other soft commodities, notably coffee, which saw prices reach forty-year highs. These parallel developments suggest a broader pattern of vulnerability in agricultural commodities that could reshape our understanding of market dynamics and risk assessment in commodity trading. As we look toward 2025, the cocoa market stands as a harbinger of how climate volatility and regional production challenges might increasingly influence global commodity markets, forcing investors and industry players to adapt to a new normal in agricultural commodity trading.
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by UDIS_View
Bullish & Bearish cases for CocoaThe GOAT thinks a confirmation above the drawn resistance line (a bit above the double-top) will send the cocoa to 15k (well at least I have an excuse not to buy any chocolate for my boys). A Rejection at that level will send us down, possibly an M top kind of move. RSI was in negative divergence territory but now shows a possible breakout... this makes things a bit biased toward the bull case I personally am too afraid to go long at this level. I have a sell stop order at around 11k... I rather wait and see how this plays out around that hypothetical resistance line.
CAPITALCOM:USCOCOA
by GoatOfWallStreet
2
Huge Cocoa Correction Ahead? Cocoa prices face a strong risk of correction back to $10,000 as bearish fundamentals stack up: Supply Surge Ignored Ivory Coast port arrivals are up 33% from last season, signaling a significant increase in supply from the world’s largest producer. Demand Destruction at High Prices All-time high prices are forcing buyers to scale back purchases or delay deals. Economic slowdowns and weaker spending on luxury products like chocolate further reduce demand. Liquidity Crunch in Physical Markets Massive liquidity issues, including payment delays and a lack of new purchase deals, reflect stress in the cocoa trade and could lead to lower prices. Profit-Taking and Market Correction Cocoa prices appear overbought, increasing the risk of speculative profit-taking and a market pullback. Ghana’s Supply-Boosting Reforms Ghana’s President-elect plans to revamp the cocoa sector and improve production efficiency, which could add to future supply. Stronger U.S. Dollar A stronger USD makes cocoa more expensive for international buyers, reducing demand and putting pressure on prices. Soft Commodities Correction Coffee and sugar prices are already correcting, suggesting cocoa may be next in line as markets tend to move together during broader pullbacks.
PEPPERSTONE:COCOAShort
by ValchevFinance
MY COCOA LONG IDEA 01/11/2024*Did not enter this trade yet* Direction: Long SL: 7425.4 Indicators: 1. MA (20,50,100,200) 2. Trendline - Algo 3. Support and Resistance 4. I also use MT5 - Tradingcentral tools 5. Fib Time Frame: 4h (I also use other time frames mainly 1D because I like to trade for long period of time) Technical: 1. MA 20 (Yellow) is very bearish and below the MA 100 and 200 (Purple and Red) but I expect a reversal in this pattern. 2. Red trendline was broken previously so I'm looking for a breakthrough the green trendline. 3. Price respected the Support zone and is rising towards the fib level at 8216.2. 5. Tradingcentral tool signaling RISE on all time frames signifying a very bullish Price action. Fundamental and economic: 1. COCOA is a very tricky commodity but we can simplify this by looking at the COT data where they were short about 1-2 weeks ago making a short-term bearish setups and I think we are past that phase because in the long run COT is bullish on COCOA. 2. Q4 historically is bullish for this pair according to the seasonal indicator by Tradingview. 3. US Elections, Halloween, Winter season, and Christmas is an influence in the Demand of Cocoa.
VANTAGE:COCOALong
by stingotho
2
COCA SHORT 11/08/24Hello everyone, Hope you got to spend a nice weekend, let's get back to work. First of all the RSI is getting dangerously high, meaning a very likely fall in the few days. Further than the technicals, there's concrete evidence among our expertise information supplier that tomorrow is going to be a spectacular drawdown. We drew a red line in order to show you the point where you should put your SL, but it is obvious that tomorrow is the vengeance of our failure of Friday (which we are really sorry for btw) Tomorrow is all in short, see you after for a debrief.
PEPPERSTONE:COCOAShort
by edl75
2
COCOA SHORT 09/08Hello everyone, It is now clear that we're in a downtrend, as the RSI always rises back up after each low. So there are several possible scenarios, but the most logical one would be a sharp fall towards the precedent lower low, as show the green and orange paths. The red path shows the low probability path which grows back up to close the gap that was not closed yesterday, but it is highly unlikely. We advise you to sell as soon as it opens but try to place a tight SL somewhere not too high because again, the change of a trend with cocoa can get very ugly very quick. Hope it helps.
PEPPERSTONE:COCOAShort
by edl75
COCOA LONG THEN SHORT 08/08Hello everyone, It seems like we might have reached the end of the uptrend, considering external factors and technicals such as a growing RSI on the high scales indicating a change of direction very soon. However, it seems that there will be a gap or a downfall at first as usual, then a moderate uptrend which will start to collapse around 16/17h, when the liquidity it at its prime. We advise you to not open any position past this time because the end of a trend with Cocoa can get very ugly things. Hope to help you tomorrow with this, may the Lord be with us.
PEPPERSTONE:COCOALong
by edl75
COCOA LONG WEDNESDAY 07/08Hello everyone, Today is a little bit special because we've incorporated our mistakes and taken some advance by adding more downforce to our patterns. First of all, we predict a big down gap at the beginning, because of night time factors. Then, it might keep going down for a while, but it will eventually come back up, first to close the gap and then because our study shows it is almost sure, even more than today and yesterday. Our advice is to buy when the gap appears, try not to be too quick, let the price fall if it wants to, but as soon as it goes back up, buy. Hope to help you all !
PEPPERSTONE:COCOALong
by edl75
COCOA LONG MONDAY 05/08Our team of experts posts our first official forecast for our most well known asset, COCOA, with a good start because it seems that it is fully going up. Because of technicals, weather and cocoa data analysis, even though the small red area at the top might reject the price if it gets too high, it seems that it could go up to 8500/600 before the closure tomorrow night. We drew the green semi circle to show you the global movement towards the next days, even though Cocoa stays really volatile. Our advice is to buy at the opening, there might be a very little drawdown but for the 15 first minutes maximum, so buy as soon as it opens until 17/18 without any risks.
PEPPERSTONE:COCOALong
by edl75
XAUUSD FORECAST 2MWelcome to this new page, we're a team of experts working 24/7 on metals and cocoa really detailed forecasts. Our main resources are based on news, technicals and our 3 year experience gives us a true credibility that you will see as long as we keep posting. Please keep in your mind that : - we're no professionals/counselors/financial advisers - you shall not place money that you should not if you can't live without it - we reject any kind of responsibility in case of a loss, this account only gives indications and further information regarding XAUUSD and COCOA, you and you only are in charge of your money and don't have to trust us This is and will be a short series about XAUUSD, our team has come to the conclusion that for the next month nothing much will happen, some kind of fall between the big rally to the 3000s.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by edl75