Cocoa toppingSeems cocoa is finding a way lower. On the monthly I see too much pressure building. Path of least resistance is likely to the downside at this point. I prefer to get in a bit early than wait for the pennant to break to the downside (if it does).
Cocoa
CC1! - COCOA POSSIBLE BREAKOUT WITH HIGHER HIGHSCOCOA is in a corrective phase on weekly chart. I'm expecting one more wave down to previous lows or near the rising trendline before a strong wave up. Good possibilities to make higher highs. A strong breakout on rising trendline invalidates this setup.
Change buy from neutral as strong support was found on trendlinePro Long:
- Trend line provided massive support (dark red line)
- High volume at support and during the rally
- future spreads very strong (N16-U16 turned into backwardation)
- If we close positive today 7 MA will cross 20 MA generating buy signal
Contra Long:
- running into resistance on middle Bollinger Band (20 day MA)
I sold the 2900 puts last week as a sideways prediction was put in place and will keep that position and add once I see a pull back into the lower trend line
Neutral/Buy cocoa on ascending support lineBuy signal on RSI and Stochastik accompanied with a ascending support line provides good entry point for a long position. via Short puts or short put spread out in Sep16 delivery month.
Expect sideways action then upside targets would be 9 day MA around 3000 and 20 day MA at 3100 (both sloping down, so expect more sideways before a rise
Cocoa is getting ready to make a moveI have been neutral on CC for the past few weeks, but something is brewing. I favor a break towards the upside for following reasons IMHO:
1. Support area; failed to break to downside;
2. Broke out of downtrend.
3. Future spreads went back in backwardation
4. Buy signals on RSI and Stochastik
5. Bollinger Bands are very tight
Cocoa Update II : More Weakness After A Corrective BounceOn the Daily chart of Cocoa, blue wave A seems to be completed, because of a sharp reversal to the upside into blue wave B. That said the pull-back in blue wave B may reach the fibo. level of 50% or 61.8% of previous blue wave A, before turning to the downside into blue wave C.
www.ew-forecast.com
Cocoa : Trend May Be Facing A CorrectionCocoa has been trading bullish since April 2015. It has already made five waves up. Now we are tracking Blue wave A, that may unfold in upcoming days. That said blue wave A may reverse around 61.8% fib. level. After wave A is completed, Cocoa may face a correction in blue wave B.
www.ew-forecast.com
Cocoa July trend-line break after 61.8% Fib retracementMarket tested 61.8 Fib on the retracement. Now below 55 day. Test of gap and trendline possible.Possible short b/w 2820-2840 upon price action confirmation. Follow through selling below the 4/20 low also a good trigger for a short. As always use proper money management stops to limit risk.
