$CC #Cc Cocoa Cocoa remains under strong downward pressure since May. It has failed to break above slope D. The averages are also holding a downtrend. SB base support at 2315 still holds, if this breaks the next support would be around 2200 ($80q) followed by 2150. MACD is approaching its first bounce level of -40, could make an attempt higher. Keep this in sight. If this indicator continues to drop then we may see -80 levels before cocoa attempts another bounce.
Cocoa depends on the consumption of chocolate. In recent weeks, the US and the EU have reported strong increases in their inflation rate, which translates into less consumption of non-essential products such as chocolate. Another negative factor is the high cocoa stock reported this month by the US ICE stock exchange in its cocoa warehouses.
The inverse relationship between the dollar index (DIX) and current commodities does not favor cocoa: the dollar index (orange line) increased to >105 when its normal average is around 96.
Cacao se mantiene con una fuerte presión a la baja desde mayo. No ha logrado romper por encima de la pendiente D. Los promedios también sostienen una tendencia bajista. El soporte base SB de 2315 aún se mantiene, si este rompe el próximo soporte seria alrededor de 2200 ($80q) seguido de 2150. El MACD se acerca a su primer nivel de rebote de -40, podría hacer un intento al alza. Mantener esto en la mira. Si este indicador sigue a la baja entonces podremos ver niveles de -80 antes de que cacao intente otro rebote.
El cacao depende del consumo de chocolate. En estas últimas semanas, EEUU y UE ha reportado incrementos fuertes de su tasa de inflación, eso se traduce en menos consumos de productos no esenciales como es el chocolate. Otro factor negativo es el alto stock de cacao reportado este mes por la bolsa ICE de EEUU en sus bodegas de cacao.
La relación inversa entre el índice dólar (DIX) y las materias primas actual no favorece al cacao: el índice dólar (línea color naranja) incremento hasta >105 cuando su promedio normal es alrededor de 96.
Cocoa
UKCOCOA $UKCOCOA High-risk Initial LongUKCOCOA $UKCOCOA High-risk Initial Long. SL and TP on chart. 10-30x leverage. Move SL on TP.
Cocoa Tecnical analisis on cocoa trend: Cacao rompe soporte de su canal inferior de 2500 cerrando en 2455 (contratos de Julio). Próximo soporte S1 en 2400, S2 en 2300. Promedios de media móvil ahora en negativos, reflejando una tendencia bajista a corto plazo. También más volumen de venta que de compra, otro factor para la baja.
Cocoa Futures (CC1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish ReversalType: Bearish Reversal
Resistance: 2645
Pivot: 2607
Support: 2557
Preferred case: We see the potential for a bearish reversal from our pivot level at 2607 which is in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st support level at 2557 which is in line with 100% Fibonacci projection along with a graphical swing low support. Our bearish bias is further supported by price trading below the Ichimoku cloud indicator.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price might break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level at 2645 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentals: No major news.
Cocoa Futures (CCK2022), H1 Bullish BounceType : Bullish Bounce
Resistance : 2639
Pivot: 2552
Support : 2500
Preferred Case: Price is near pivot level of 2552 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially bounce up to the 1st resistance level of 2639, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection, along with a graphical swing high resistance. Our bullish bias is further supported by stochastic indicator where price is near resistance level.
Alternative scenario: Price might continue to drop towards the 1st support level of 2500 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
Fundamentals: No Major News
Cocoa Futures (CCK2022), H1 Bullish BounceType : Bullish Bounce
Resistance : 2647
Pivot: 2558
Support : 2502
Preferred case: We see the potential for bullish bounce from our Pivot level at 2558 in line 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance level at 2647 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is supported by price trading above the Ichimoku cloud indicator.
Alternative scenario: If price continues to dip towards our 1st support level at 2502 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Fundamentals: No Major News.
Cocoa Futures (CCK2022), H1 Bearish ReversalType : Bearish Reversal
Resistance : 2673
Pivot: 2651
Support : 2605
Preferred case: We see the potential for bearish reversal from our Pivot level at 2651 in line 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st Support at 2605 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator where it is at resistance level.
Alternative scenario: If price continues to go up, it can potentially move towards our 1st Resistance level at 2673 which is in line with 100% Fibonacci projection.
Fundamentals: No Major News.
Cocoa Futures (CCK2022), H4 Bearish DipType : Bearish Dip
Resistance : 2608
Pivot: 2557
Support : 2456
Preferred case: We see the potential for bearish dip from our Pivot level at 2557in line 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st Support at 2456 with a swing low support level. Our bearish bias is further supported by price trading below the Ichimoku cloud indicator.
Alternative scenario: If price continues to go up, it can potentially move towards our 1st Resistance level at 2608 which is in line with with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Fundamentals: No Major News.
USCOCOA LONG - Buy Entry - D1 ChartUSCOCOA LONG - Buy Entry - D1 Chart
Buy @ Market
Symbol: USCOCOA
Timeframe: D1
Type: BUY
Entry Price: Buy @ Market
TP - Resistance @ 2561.42
TP - Resistance @ 2620.59
TP - Resistance @ 2675.76
TP - Resistance @ 2754.21
PP Y1 - Pivot Point Yearly @ 2483.65
Support @ 2446.42
Support @ 2414.51
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Cocoa Futures (CCK2022), H4 Bullish ContinuationType : Bullish Continuation
Resistance : 2708
Pivot: 2523
Support : 2452
Preferred case: We see the potential for bullish continuation from our Pivot level at 2523 in line 23.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st Resistance at 2708 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection . Our bullish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where price trading near the support level.
Alternative scenario: If price continues to drop, it can potentially move towards our 1st Support level at 2452 which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection .
Fundamentals: No Major News.
Cocoa Futures (CCK2022), H4 Bullish BounceType : Bullish Bounce
Resistance : 2593
Pivot: 2496
Support : 2449
Preferred case: Price is abiding by the ascending trendline. We see the potential for bullish bounce from our Pivot level at 2661 in line 61.8% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st Resistance at 2593 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is further supported by RSI indicator showing price moving along the ascending trendline.
Alternative scenario: If price continues to drop, it can potentially move towards our 1st Support level at 2449 which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
Fundamentals: No Major News.
Cocoa ShortRough market cycles are derived from significant resistance and support using the sine wave and cycle line tool. In tandem with this, the market cycle based reflex indicator cycle line has crossed trend line, as well as the 8 hour fisher transform being "overbought". I would not place a trade based on any of these indications separately, but collectively I believe it is worth shorting at risk / reward ratio of 1:5 as outlined on the chart.
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COCOA D1: 50% Gains SWING setup BUY/HOLD(NEW)(SL/TP)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: COCOA daily chart review
::: chart is LOG SCALE
::: compression into falling wedge
::: strong prior uptrend
::: 50% gains final TP BULLS
::: global inflation driving prices
::: also global warming heavy impact
::: cycle low for the market is near
::: BUY LOW near 1900/2000 USD
::: 12/24 months as global economy
::: is starting the recovery right now
::: BULLISH CYCLE is ON BUY DIPS
::: BUY/HOLD get paid / swing trade setup
::: BUY ANY DIPS / final TP BULLS is 3500 USD
::: 5% upside from current market price
::: WAIT for dips and reload (BULLS)
::: recommend to BUY/HOLD
::: recommended strategy: BUY/HOLD
::: bullish super cycle in coffee market
::: SWING trade setup do not expect
::: fast/miracle overnights gains here
::: good luck traders
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
::: 2000/2200 USD fresh demand zone
::: 3500 USD fresh supply zone
🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies
::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A
::: Sentiment short-term: BULLS / MORE GAINS
::: Sentiment outlook mid-term: BULLS / SUPER CYCLE
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Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.