Cocoa
Cocoa has had no friends! But im going to send a friend requestCocoa has taken a beating recently. It looks like we are starting to see people jumping in to catch the knife. Im stalking my prey like a lion, waiting for the time to strike. Maybe next 2 weeks.
COCOA (BCC)• Entry after breach of trading range between 159.11 and 169.54
• Double bottom formation.
• Price rebound from 4-year lows
Cocoa Futures. End of complex correctionHello traders. Now we are in complex correction. We saw a bullish attack ( white line), we saw bearish defence ( white rectangle) and we saw a very strong bearish attack ( another white line) so I am really expecting now for price to break 1900 level and move to one of the yellow horizontal lines. if price does not reach them, I will start seriously thinking of trend change. Before price breaks 19 level, it can pullback to yellow rectangle and give a good signal to sell.
Remember: You must confirm my expectations with your own analysis!
Cocoa LongCocoa +4,22% today and close above 2000
CoT very bullish -> Commercials are Net Long
It looks like a double bottom is forming.
I already got a starter position.
Planning to add on possible pullback around 1970-1990.
1. Intermediate Targets 2125 and 2245
2. Main Target is the area around 2400 with the 38,2% fibo
Good Trading!
cocoa excellent r/r for marchAfter the waterfall we had have a unique opportunity to at least test the february high.
To make the story more intriging.
Commercial cots are at a record high:
prnt.sc
cotbase.com
Tickers we are buying:
kko-international.com (not on tradingvieuw)
Chart:
www.bloomberg.com
CC2! Cocoa on the same support as 2008CC2! Cocoa on the same support hit on 2008 and not broken since.
The next days will be decisive to see if a big move will be made.
CC2! COCOA on the same support as 2008CC2! Cocoa on the same support hit on 2008 and not broken since.
The next days will be decisive to see if a big move will be made.
Cocoa Long Long TermCocoa has hit levels which has previously proven to be support levels in 2011/12 and again in 2013. I believe that this may be the turning point for the cocoa price, after a rough 2016 with a 32% decline. If the support level is broken, though, it's probably wiser to open a short position.
What's interesting is that the short interest in cocoa is very high, and many traders and institutions hold a short position in cocoa, which could open up for a so called "short squeeze".
The short interest is something I would monitor carefully, because if we see a decline in short positions, this could indicate that more people believe in a rise in cocoa prices, and have either just covered their short, or switched sides of the trade.
Cocoa - Pain's not overAt least in the monthly, cocoa looks to drop even more.
Potential bounce up to the yellow A/R line, then continue down.
P!
CC1! @ daily @ nearest commodity (of 32) to ATL still not a buyThis is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
4XSetUps for next wee - friday close (32 Commodities)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron
COCOA waiting to go SHORTThis chart has been not easy to create, both because it does not show data below D1 and I was interested in H4, and because the price vary from my broker. Anyway...
#Cocoa (US futures Mar 2017) is close to a support in its retracement and might just go back again to keep its bearish trend going.
Actually, on my broker the current bar (with no shadow) is exactly at the 23.6 Fibonacci level calculated from 2 lower-high ago (03 Nov 2016) which is aligned with the one calculated from the latest lower-high (06 Jan 2017) --> see green arrow on the chart.
Anyway, the bearish trend can be seen on the D1 chart
The H4 chart is not available but we can get a good idea of the levels having a closer look at the main image (zoomed from D1).
The upwards retracement is expected to reverse either on the Fibonacci level or on the trendline.
Keep this under monitoring and be ready for a price-based action to go #SHORT.
CC1! @ daily @ nearest (of 32 commodities) to it`s alltime lowsThis is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
In percents away from all-time high & low by last close (32 Commodities)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron
CC1! @ daily @ worst Commodity (-33%) 2016, closed yearly lowTake care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decision ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
44 COMMODITIES (2016 Yearly Performance) from Chicago, New York & London @ drive.google.com
Best regards
Aaron
Cocoa (Monthly Long)Truly a great trading construction. As a minimum I am expecting a risk/reward of 1-1.35. Also, keep in mind my stop is extremely wide.
This is a very high probability set-up.
Cocoa toppingSeems cocoa is finding a way lower. On the monthly I see too much pressure building. Path of least resistance is likely to the downside at this point. I prefer to get in a bit early than wait for the pennant to break to the downside (if it does).
CC1! - COCOA POSSIBLE BREAKOUT WITH HIGHER HIGHSCOCOA is in a corrective phase on weekly chart. I'm expecting one more wave down to previous lows or near the rising trendline before a strong wave up. Good possibilities to make higher highs. A strong breakout on rising trendline invalidates this setup.
Change buy from neutral as strong support was found on trendlinePro Long:
- Trend line provided massive support (dark red line)
- High volume at support and during the rally
- future spreads very strong (N16-U16 turned into backwardation)
- If we close positive today 7 MA will cross 20 MA generating buy signal
Contra Long:
- running into resistance on middle Bollinger Band (20 day MA)
I sold the 2900 puts last week as a sideways prediction was put in place and will keep that position and add once I see a pull back into the lower trend line
Neutral/Buy cocoa on ascending support lineBuy signal on RSI and Stochastik accompanied with a ascending support line provides good entry point for a long position. via Short puts or short put spread out in Sep16 delivery month.
Expect sideways action then upside targets would be 9 day MA around 3000 and 20 day MA at 3100 (both sloping down, so expect more sideways before a rise