Coffee
Looking for a significant bottom in coffeelooking for a bottom from here or a little bit lower, ideally 98.30 would hold
** Just an idea, NOT a forecast
Coffee: Boom. Roasted!This is an excerpt from the Parallax Weekly premium report originally published July 15, 2019.
"The net-positioning in coffee has surged, and the percentile metric is not suggesting it’s extremely overdone even though the one-year z-score is well above 2.
The problem now is that coffee prices have declined from $116 to $106 with net-longs still in charge. There is uncertainty surrounding frost that effected the Brazilian crop. Contingent on crop damage estimates, record production expectations into 2020 and price/net-positioning divergences, the bearish case for coffee @ 96 is created."
Double Espresso - Coffee Trade for Serious ProfitCoffee has enjoyed a nice 5 wave bull impulse mirroring the start of its sister wave (A). After the 98.40 gap fill (likely just prior to the July 31 FOMC), purchase December 2019 OTM Call Options (expiring November 8 2019).
Coffee perfectly placed for rebuying Taking support at daily kijunsen which coincide with 50% retracement of current rally, you would never like to miss a buy. In a bull run RSI at 50 needs to give support and it almost kissed that level. Re buying here can provide quick profits towards 100 and recent high. Fundamentally, Brazilian Real rallied big after we spotted bottom against USD at 4.10 . Coffee supplies still abundant.
SBUX August bear vertical: sell 72.5 and buy the 85 callThis trade is 43 deltas negative and can be done for a credit of 9.01. Best case profit of 901 is achieved below the stake of the sold call of 72.5 and the worst case loss is a loss of 349 per contract above the strike of the bought call, 85. There is technical support at 75 -- this is why the written call strike is below 75.
SBUX has a whopping high PE of 30; during the trade war debacle this is outrageous. Lots of growth in SBUX has come from store growth in China. In Q1 it opened 3,700 stores, and can now be found in 10 new cities — totaling 158 Chinese cities. As more money is being poured into Chinese expansion, however, competition is growing. Luckin’ is expanding throughout China; coffees at Luckin’ cost 30 percent less than those from the American competition.
Also, if there is a macroeconomic downturn, people will cut their expenses on luxury goods, like $8 cups of coffee. This is a fundamental issue SBUX will have to face. August expiry follows SBUX's earnings report which will begin to indicate the suffering from the consequences of the trade war.
Coffe fundamental analysis-The strong increase in coffee prices is due to the strengthening of BRL and the fear of frost
-The Brazilian hurricane delayed harvest, which could lead to a deterioration in crop quality
-Coffee consumption has risen to historic highs, but it is not yet visible at coffee bars
-Farmers receive only 10% of the final consumer price, so they don't get too much from growing demand
-In contrast, large coffee makers such as Nestle or Starbucks generate huge profits
-This year, the International Coffee Organization ( ICO ) reduced the surplus by 7.5% to 3.4 million bags.
-From the market situation we can see that long positions increased while short positions decreased
-Coffe stocks in American ports fell, a similar situation in 2013 followed by a strong coffee exchange rally
-Farmers receive only 10% of the wholesale price of coffee . Current low prices may cause some South American farmers to collapse. In the long run, this can support a rise in coffee prices.
-After several months of coffee reserves in American ports, this may remind us of the situation in 2013 and 2014.
-I set my first tp at 120, second at 125, i show only my second tp at my chart, but I think you can set to 150 or more.
Looking at topping formation in USD/BRL, Coffee seems to explodeWhile USD/BRL short term indicators giving clear signal of correction to downside, Coffee touches its horizontal support. Trading at dirt cheap price and taking support, price seems to explode upside for quick trade opportunity. Brazilian real seems to get strength after falling as low as 4.12 against USD yesterday, which will push coffee prices up. Technically areas to watch are 91.20 & 94. Near 91.20, 20sma coincide with daily kijunsen giving tough resistance since many days. once crossed focus will shift 94 to 95 region(horizontal resistance confluence with 50sma) .
Spread Coffee, KCZ19-KCH20Short KCZ19-KCH20
Entry date 5/3/2019 - Exit date 10/28/2019
Win 14/15 (93%)
Cyclical sell pattern on Coffee. Long term short opportunity.This is a pattern that is being repeated over and over again though the decades. Coffee reaches a peak within 280 - 340 on a parabolic rise, then starts to decline less aggressively on Lower Highs, and bottoms within 42.00 - 50.45. That's Coffee's market cycle and since 1974 we've had three, currently being near the end of the third, as we are just before the final aggressive bearish leg
For those who are willing to short the market, there is a roughly 45% profit opportunity on a 2 year horizon until it bottom near 50.45 again.
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US Coffee Long Position Idea - Opinion KC1!Hi there. This is a recent analysis for an undervalued commodity which is US Coffee KC1!. As you see from the weekly chart Coffee price reached the bottom bollinger band, after this price movement it is expected to bounce again for the median of 20 weeks of bollinger at targets the price of 101,5$. This signal is also confirmed from RSI which is at oversold price level of 40. +DI from ADX is also at oversold level which is going to change over time and give a solid buy signal. This bounce might be helped from the highly demand in this specific commodity which is beloved worldwide.
**This is not an investment advice, it is only for educational purpose**
Invest with safety.
COFFEE SHORTCould not hold support; broke below $94. Next target area is between $90 and $86. Use a tight stop above $95.
Coffee Futures (KC1!) long.Targets and stops on the chart.
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ETFS Coffee before the 82% rise... I believe that based on my analysis, Coffee will start to rise. The rise begins with a rise from the W1 ATR axis. After leaving the ATR axis, the exchange rate can build a rising wave structure on the wave axis (green line). The size and size of the wave structure may be similar to the size of the wave crossing the wave axis previously. The rising target price is 1.2306 usd.
Coffee reaches accumulation levelsCoffee is trading near multi year horizontal support of 95 cents. While excessive supply and falling Brazilian real crushed the prices, there is ray of hope ahead. With price almost reaching 95 level which seems safe accumulation level, there can be gains in coming months. Farmers in Brazil are reducing coffee cultivation area will lead reduction in inventories in coming months. Price hovering near critical long term support risk to reward is very low for investing in coffee for some months.
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Coffee time?I've been stalking coffee in the background from many weeks. It's looking pretty ripe about now for taking a controlled loss (aka stop-loss). When coffee moves, it really moves. This is a longer time frame trade, which I do not usually get involved in - but it's probably time for me to get involved in one or two of these.
