SBUX BOLD CALL - COFFEE IS FUTUREstarbux attractive risk reward
secret sauce
sbux can explode to 90-as high as 106
Coffee
Short position in coffee futures. Horizon: 4 monthsThis is another average position form our long-term investments, very risky, which is included in our bearish commodity group over the next 5-6 months, correlated with bullish equity markets, a bullish dollar, a bearish euro, and a bearish token market.
Get me a coffee: strong and blackI'm eyeing up a long entry on coffee. I'll look at trading this through the 3CFL ETF. If the trade goes as envisaged and hits my wave 3 target, it could yield 100% profit thanks to the leveraged ETF.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Do not follow my trades. Do your own analysis, make your own trading plans. I am not an Elliot Wave analyst and only use the tool to map out a general idea of how price may move. Constructive comments are welcomed and encouraged.
So why am I taking this trade?
The recent move up from the late September low looks pretty impulsive and price is currently printing what looks to me like a bull flag;
As price has been falling throughout this year, volume has started to swell, giving clear bullish divergence
More recently, in the July to September period of this year, the swelling volume could be considered stopping volume
Price has bounced off the $96 dollar level (12 year low) a level which has previously been a springboard.
Monthly / Daily RSI and stochastic RSI look bullish
Why am I targeting $148 by end of year?
Historical resistance level
Confluence with specific, modest fib extension level
Use of fib time tool to project key dates for pivots
Any reasons to be cautious?
Weekly RSI and stochastic RSI look bearish
Price could possibly make a W bottom and even make a lower low, with strong bullish divergence on stoch RSI / RSI - which would provide another good entry for a long.
Stop loss?
Subject to the opening price on the ETF tomorrow, I'll consider placing a tight stop around the $110 mark.
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SBUX vs KC1! (coffee futures)Coffee prices seem to be reaching a pivotal point with possible break out. Starbucks has enjoyed decreasin coffee prices over the last decade. A break out in coffee could be good sign to short SBUX $BJO
Cheap Caffeine FixCoffee Futures fall today below 100, to 97.25, not seen since 2006. Producers, according to the CFTC COT reports, are net long some 80,000 contracts, an all-time high. These extremes in positioning are accurate contrarian signals, presenting a opportunity to bet on a rebound in future coffee prices over the next 6 month.
Coffee pullback coming soon KC1!The pullback must be coming soon, looks like it might have already started but will we see follow through from the bears this week?
SELL Coffee (Short Setup)Wait for confirmation of resistance from the upper trend line before the price heads down again.
This is supported by the high RSI level.
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Correction for Coffee FuturesAfter such a dramatic rise in a down trend the price is due for a correction downwards.
Also the RSI was very high as well so that supports this prediction.
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Long SBUXDirectional Bias: Long
Price Target: 62
Good Entry: 54-56
Risk/Reward: $2 max risk/$7+ reward
Bill Ackman on the comeback grind coupled with good technicals/price action. The daily 50 sma is providing rising support currently above 55. Trade Valid as long as 54 holds.
'BUY' AND STOCK UP ON COFFEE, WATCH IT GROW FOR YEARS TO COME!Thought i would not find a market more promising for the future than platinum but i've been proven otherwise. Coffee is lower than it has ever been in it's life cycle and can only imagine this is the end of downtrend and may form a wick around 1.0100 where expected to bottom out and start headed upwards. Do not miss out on a great buying up opportunity and watch your investment grow in years to come.
I bought in with a relatively small buy and watching market closely waiting for trend reversal confirmation before adding a larger buy.
I suggest working on the monthly view (1M) timeframe, using the MACD, Stoch RSI and CM_Ultimate_MA__MTF_V2 (combo of multiple indicators created by someone and accessible if you have pro account on tradingview).
Do set stop losses but be generous with how much room you allow for this due to candle wicks and there is also the possibility to hedge yourself, for more confident traders.
All comments and questions welcome, if curious about indicators I use then feel free to inquire.
Coffee Buy IdeaCoffee Buy Idea @Monthly Demand Zone (110.95 - 101.55)
Buy Limit: 111.00
Stop Loss: 101.00
Take Profit: 126.00
Coffee C Futures possible medium term viewThis is what I expect to unfold over the coming weeks and months:
While Coffee is relatively muted of late, when it breaks out it normally breaks out strongly.
An ending 5th wave diagonal seems to be the rule rather than the exception the the end of any downward move. As always, it is difficult to count the ABCDE waves in a pattern like this - and there is no guarantee of an upwards breakout) but a breakout with good volume would seem worth buying (there are a couple of bear and bull traps evident already),
- There seems to be rather strong support acting on the floor of coffee for the past few years (vertical arrows) at around $100 - wave (C) could not extend 1:1 of wave (A) because that would mean negative prices.
- When prices drop this low, a strong bounce normally occurs,
- I would wait to trade this after it forms wave 1 and 2 up (at least a triangle trend-line break, retrace <100% of wave 1, and a break of the wave 1 extreme with conviction - then hang on for the ride. Due to the large volatility in its swift price increases, I would keep my stop-loss just below the start of the move until I can clearly identify the larger degree wave 2 and then wave 4.
This is only published for my own education and interest. I do not presently participate in a platform that will allow me to trade coffee but I will want to change this as its potential volatility is very attractive. This is 100% technical analysis and 0% fundamental analysis. I am interested as to whether TA can stand on its own two feet.
I have noticed that I haven't being paying less for a cuppa as the commodity prices decline, so I also won't accept price increases when the underlying commodity price does jump.
Target hit. Further downside on 1D. Short.TP hit on the previous short as Coffee C moved below the previous Lower Low at 112.00. The price is still on a long term 1W Channel Down (RSI = 41.160, MACD = -3.390, Highs/Lows = -2.5643, B/BP = -9.5600) with 1D now in need of printing a Lower High (Williams = -45.358, Highs/Lows = 1.2521) between 114 and 117.50. The next TP for our KCU8 short is 100.000.
$SBUX - Time to Cut Back On CaffeineI remember buying this stock back in 2012 at around 30/shr and held it through the bull run. It's sad to see this drop so much in such a short period of time. With the rising cost of coffee and the cutback in construction, I am assuming there will be weak guidance for this upcoming ER.
Next week, we may see an ER run up to the 38% - 61% fib before the next drop.
My plan is to purchase calls first thing Monday and enjoy one last run, and short it back on the way down to $43 (or even lower). For now, I'm marking this short- term "LONG" until it finishes the retracement.
Starbucks might see a pick up right here
We hit the long term trend line right at the 50$ so for me it is in a support spot.
Lets see what happens and
May the markets be with us
