15$ rise for Coffee futuresWe think Coffee might rise 15$ in price in coming weeks. It presents good opportunity for buying with a tight stop.
Coffee
Coffee: Caffeine's about to hit ☕The coffee price has been moving downward since February last year within the framework of the superior wave Y in turquoise. In our primary expectation, however, this descent should not last much longer. In the orange target zone between USX 144.40 and USX 136.40, it should come to the low, followed by subsequent rises. Only falling below the zone would put a spoke in the wheel. Then, the price would have to drop much further within our 35% probable alternative before the reversal sets in.
NEW YORK ICE COFFEE:Maintain our bearish outlook We maintain our bearish outlook. The market is swinging within a descending channel.
ONLY a clear close above KP will abort the bearish scenario and clear the path for a strong rally.
Coffee and Dairy Futures: Commodities in a new lightCoffee, Sugar, Cocoa, and all 5 milk futures are listed in this layout.
People buy a lot of coffee and milk which is why this chart is of importance. The Sugar, Coffee, and Cocoa are obviously used to make the caffeinated drink.
on going down trend coffethis concept shows high probability of down trend extension
in the link there is a long therm view
SBUX to ~$118.74, try for a shortSBUX gave the perfect automatic re-entry after tagging the mid-point pivot and returning to our original entry. Following the rules and reloading would have already ensured you now have your full investment lots, risk free. With no downside other than a $0 gain potential it's a good chance SBUX goes for it's $118.74 target.
Based on how it pivoted down straight from it's midpoint on the first touch take the bet and to try getting short at $118.74 with a tight stop. If it blows through the final d-target then there's more upside coming. But chances are we see a reversal from the d-target. Don't get greedy though and take profits early on that reversal to ensure lock in your risk.
Robusta hit the target after 2 years at $28.00I don't know about you but I prefer Arabica Coffee to Robusta.
It's sweeter, it's fuller and it's not that bitter.
Anyways, I sent out this trade idea in September 2021!
The price broke above the Falling Wedge and there were strong signs of upside.
This trade idea was a slow pace and anyone who held onto this trade, most likely would have made very little money due to the daily interest expense charges.
It really does add up. And unfortunately, we traders can't treat these markets like medium to long term investors who deal with derivatives.
Anyways, the target hit at $28.00 and the price looks to be consolidating here before further upside. Hopefully, a new pattern forms and we can get wired back into the trade.
INTERESTING FACTS ABOUT THE ROBUSTA COFFEE COMMODITY
Second Most Traded Coffee:
Robusta is the second most traded type of coffee, following Arabica, in terms of global market demand and trade activity.
Price Determination:
Robusta coffee prices are influenced by factors such as weather conditions, crop yields, global supply and demand dynamics, currency exchange rates, and geopolitical events.
Use in Blends:
Robusta coffee is often used in coffee blends, alongside Arabica, to provide a stronger and more full-bodied flavor profile.
Coffee Exporter Revenue:
Robusta coffee exports contribute to the revenue of major coffee-producing countries such as Vietnam, Brazil, Indonesia, and Uganda, driving economic activity and foreign exchange earnings.
Coffee could redefine what a bull market really isThe multi-year base in Coffee, if this is a correct chart diagnosis, could send Coffee into the troposphere. Seldom have we seen "life-of-contract" multi year bases, but this could be one
Potential Selling Scenario for COFFEEExpecting bearishness for coffee the next weeks because of the seasonality, and market structure of the coffee futures chart
Coffee Futures Bullish LevelGreen shade on the jupiter pendulum at key levels
Look for buyers to step in here and for the blue confirmation candle
Coffee SHORTCommodities Are Best Traded with Trend Following
Delivering a comprehensive service of trading systems, risk management strategies and psychological guidelines allows our customers to trade in less than thirty minutes per day.
Arabica coffee futures in the US traded around HKEX:194 per pound after hitting an over 6-month high of HKEX:205 on April 18th, on some profit-taking prompted by the recent rise amid low stocks and concerns that the slowing global economy could hurt coffee demand. On the supply side, the latest data showed ICE monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 4-1/4 month low of 700,048 bags. Meanwhile, dealers have said exports from key origins such as Brazil and Colombia were slumping. The International Coffee Organization projected another year of strong supply deficit in the coffee market, with a shortfall of 7.3 million bags, mainly due to arabica crop woes in Latin America's top producer.
What moves coffee prices?
There are several major factors that could affect coffee prices. If you are going to trade coffee it is important to understand the dynamics that drive prices.
The ‘Big Four’
The largest buyers of coffee beans on the international markets are known as the so-called ‘Big Four’: Nestle (NESN), Kraft (KHC), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Sara Lee (SLE). Together, they purchase around 50% of all the coffee produced globally. They primarily buy Robusta beans, so their activity exerts a strong influence on prices.
Climate
As an agricultural commodity, coffee production is largely determined by the impact of weather conditions on sensitive crops. If the climate is conducive to growing coffee plants, prices can drop, but an unfavourable climate can cause prices to rise.
This is because good weather during the growing season can increase the supply, while adverse weather conditions can damage crops or hamper their growth. As the five largest producers account for around 65% of global supply, weather conditions can have a significant effect on supply and, in turn, pricing.
Arabica coffee prices soared to 10-year highs in late 2021, as drought and frost reduced output in Brazil and heavy rains affected production in Colombia. ICE-certified stocks fell to their lowest level in 22 years.
Plant disease
Agricultural commodities are also affected by other risks that can influence the condition of plants, such as disease.
‘Coffee leaf rust’ is a disease caused by a fungus that can devastate coffee crops. Robusta beans are more resilient than Arabica beans, which are more delicate and susceptible to damage from bad weather or disease.
For example, global coffee prices rose sharply in 2013 after coffee leaf rust damaged crops in Central America and reduced supply. It was estimated that around 70% of Guatemala’s coffee production was affected.
Consumer habits
Coffee drinking trends are a key driver of demand and price direction. The emergence of specialty coffee shops is increasing demand for premium, artisan beans.
Consumption is also changing in different parts of the world, with emerging markets such as in Asia leading demand growth because of rising incomes, changing tastes and growing populations. But the ongoing debate around the health effects of drinking coffee can also affect consumption.
Although Arabica and Robusta beans have different flavours, major changes in the price for one can affect the demand for the other. If Arabica prices soar, demand for Robusta as a substitute could increase in response.
Geopolitics
As more than 90% of coffee is produced in developing countries, social unrest or political instability can disrupt coffee production and market sentiment. Futures prices respond quickly to geopolitical events in major producing nations.
With Russia being the world’s sixth largest coffee consumer, the war in Ukraine and resulting sanctions has had an impact on coffee demand, and is expected to cause a supply surplus in the 2022 to 2023 growing season.
Distribution costs
The cost of transporting coffee around the world is factored into prices. Costs for fuel and shipping determine how expensive it is to distribute coffee. During the Covid-19 pandemic, high freight costs contributed to prices reaching decade highs.
US dollar
Commodity markets including coffee are often priced in US dollars, so the value of the dollar also affects prices. Dollar-denominated commodities become more expensive for buyers with other currencies when the dollar rises, which can weigh on demand. Meanwhile, coffee becomes cheaper when the dollar falls, increasing international demand.
Coffee Futures getting an uncommon sign of over extension.KC is hitting some fibs and speculators have been getting heavily long over the past 3 weeks as per COT data.
PMARP showing a good sign of over exuberance.
From what I can tell the consensus on it is that there's a big shortage and it cant go down, which is common across a few other commodities at the moment (CL etc). Consensus is rarely correct.
Much of the rally on this seems to have been supported by the "Bid everything, muh fed saving the economy" narrative that popped up last month.
A similar thing happened in 2008, Bear Sterns went under and JPM "saved the world", VIX got crushed to 16 (VIX is at 16.38 as of writing this) in the 4 weeks following, then we all know what happened from there.
Beware of big institutions saving the world narratives.
Donut Time in America. Ditch the New Year's Diet ResolutionsIts usually time to fade the American urge to "Eat Healthy this Year" by the time the leaves start showing up on the trees again.
Add to Krispy Kreme between 12-13 dollars.
"As society becomes more and more complex, cheating will in many ways become progressively easier and easier to do and harder to police or even understand."
Coffee getting cheap!markets looking weak here long way down, good for coffee shops bad for farmers.
☕️Coffee futures (KC): third wave bull market.●● Preferred count
● Coffee Cash (KC.C), 🕐TF: 30D
Fig.1
In Fig. 1 , the wave count from 02/07/2022 . At the moment, the market is in the initial stage of the development of the primary wave ③ . The alternative scenario is the same — the continuation of the formation of the wave e of (IV) , as it is marked in black .
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● Coffee C®️ Futures (KC1!), 🕐TF: 6h
Fig.2
The wave ① formed the shape of an expanding diagonal . There is another infrequent pattern on the chart — an expanding triangle at the position of the wave (X) of ② .
Growth is expected to continue.
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📚 Elliott Wave Guide & Ellott Wave Archive ⬇️⬇️
Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 214.05
Pivot: 182.95
Support: 172.60
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for KC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. To add confluence to this bias, price is also along an ascending trend line. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 182.95, where the overlap support is, before continue heading towards the resistance at 214.05, where the overlap resistance is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to break the pivot at 182.95, where the overlap support is, before heading towards the support at 172.60, where the overlap support and 23.6% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Coffee Short - Seasonal weakness starting For my coffee drinkers - Both Arabica and Robusta had a strong start to the year. However, seasonally a bearish phase starts from 22 Feb to 31 Mar. The technical price target was also reached yesterday. In the last 17 years we can observe a negative trend between 22 Feb to 1 Mar. Only in 5 out of 17 years did the coffee price rise during this period. On average, coffee loses around -3.75% in this period with a standard deviation of 6.92%.
Just a cup of coffeeHello Traders
Coffee has broken the resistance level of 173.39 (D) and it looks like a trend continuation to the upside will continue under the 100EMA.
Price can continue to rise and reach the 210.00 area. I am currently long.
Anyone else trading coffee?
Happy trading
Samantha.
Coffee (Love Coffee & wanna get rich?)View On Coffee (23 Dec 2022)
I am seeing a possible bottoming in coffee.
It is hard to find a single bottoming point but I reckon the price of coffee will not go lower than $150.
In 1Q2023, you can slowly build coffee postings and possible extract the great profit of it.
It shall easily see $190 or even $210
DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too.
Feel Free to "Follow", press "LIKE" "Comment".
Thank You!
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice.
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Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 214.05
Pivot: 172.60
Support: 142.05
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for KC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 172.60, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap support are, before continue heading towards the resistance at 214.05, where the overlap resistance is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to break the pivot at 172.60, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap support are, before heading towards the support at 142.05, where the previous swing low is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 214.05
Pivot: 172.60
Support: 142.05
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for KC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 172.60, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap support are, before continue heading towards the resistance at 214.05, where the overlap resistance is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to break the pivot at 172.60, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap support are, before heading towards the support at 142.05, where the previous swing low is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 214.05
Pivot: 172.60
Support: 142.05
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for KC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 172.60, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap support are, before continue heading towards the resistance at 214.05, where the overlap resistance is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to break the pivot at 172.60, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap support are, before heading towards the support at 142.05, where the previous swing low is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
