✅COFFEE NEXT MOVE|LONG🚀
✅COFFEE has retested a key support level
And as the pair is already making a bullish rebound
A move up to retest the supply level above is likely
LONG🚀
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Coffee
Coffee Futures (KCK2022), H1 Potential for Bearish Dip!Type: Bearish Dip
Resistance : 229.45
Pivot: 227.30
Support : 220.80
Preferred case: We see the potential for further bearish continuation from our Pivot at 227.30 in line 78.6% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st support at 220.80 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is further supported by stochastic indicator where it is at resistance level.
Alternative scenario: Price might move towards the 1st resistance level of 229.45 in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentals: No major news
Coffee Flag?the failed head and shoulders target was met, and an 11-month trendline was also broken
now is the time for a bearish continuation flag ??
KCK2022 (Coffee Futures) | H1 Bullish PressureType : Bullish Pressure
Resistance : 228.10
Pivot: 220.20
Support : 214.00
Preferred Case: Price is near pivot level of 220.20 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially rise up to the 1st resistance level at 228.10, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection, with a graphical swing high resistance. Our bullish bias is further supported by price trading above the Ichimoku cloud indicator.
Alternative scenario: Price might also dip towards the 1st support level of 214.00 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 78.6%% Fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentals: No Major News
KCK2022 (Coffee Futures) | H4 Bearish MomentumType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 220.95
Pivot: 213.75
Support : 200.60
Preferred Case: Price is near pivot level of 213.75 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially move towards the 1st support level which is graphical swing low support. Our bearish bias is further supported by price trading below the Ichimoku cloud indicator.
Alternative scenario: Price could also head towards the 1st resistance level of 220.95 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 38.2%% Fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentals: No Major News
KCK2022 (Coffee Futures) | H4 Bullish BounceType : Bullish Bounce
Resistance : 220.75
Pivot: 211.10
Support : 204.70
Preferred Case: Price is near pivot level of 211.10 in line with 127.20% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially move towards the 1st resistance level of 220.75. Our bullish bias is further supported by stochastic indicator as it is at support level.
Alternative scenario: Price could also head towards the 1st support level of 204.70 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 138.2%% Fibonacci extension .
Fundamentals: No Major News
Coffee is cheap, but cocoa is cheaper?Coffee is cheap, but cocoa is cheaper? Time to get long in both: Cocoa and Coffee
Bullish triangle pattern - waiting to be resolvedThe bottom side of this triangle was confirmed multiple times now. Waiting for a test of the upper side and/or just a breakout.
The next target zone will be around 250-255 USX.
Up, up and away!The coffee futures have broken today the bullish flag, and this derivate on coffee follows the coffee price accordingly. Maybe in the following days, a pullback is possible, reaching 3,71 or the vicinity of the broken trendline below.
According to the seasonality and inflation, I expect a general bullish trend in coffee until the end of the year. But buying this instrument and holding it until the end of the year could be difficult because of the volatility decay. Take care!
Wheat, Naturalgas, Brent, Coffee and Cotton vs BTCWheat, Naturalgas, Brent, Coffee and Cotton vs BTC in one chart, all long!
It's coffee time!See chart.
NOTE : The thing about charting is IT IS BASED on probability based on historical price actions and patterns. But the market is forward looking and to restrict oneself to say that if the price moves to A, then it would goes to B, then C is not only myopic but also underestimate the Market which is ever changing.
Price action could very well not touched the support line before retrace higher. Or price may not necessarily hit the 50% or 61.8% FIB level as precisely as we would like it to be. IT IS A GUIDE only.
When one trades on a larger time frame, then the short term price movements would matters less as you are concerned with the overall direction of the product you are trading.
I have find my heart beating way too fast and my emotions go haywire the time when I tried trading 15 minutes time frame or less. Sometimes, after keying in the order, I am already stopped out!! OUCH!!!
Leave this fast trading game to the experts who can make millions trading thousands of trades a day. They earn their marks through years of practice , I am sure.
Technical Outlook for the Coffee Market, backed by fundamentals.Fundamentals: The coffee Market has been in a strong bullish trend ever since a frost hit the brazil coffee belt in July / August 2021, followed by a period of drought. This left the world´s biggest producer of Arabica coffee with huge productivity losses for the 2021/2022 crop. That results in a really tight Arabica balance sheet for 2022, which could get worse through re-openings of coffee-to-go shops after Covid-19 lockdowns. The tense global logistic situation with low vessel space, exploding freight rates and shortage of containers and truckers is fuel to the already burning fire of less coffee supply than demand.
What can be examined from this is, that roasters tap into certified coffee inventories drowning them to 10-year lows, an extremely bullish factor ever since.
Technicals: Prices stay in an uptrend channel, that can be divided into a major channel and two minor ones. The structure stayed between those two lines while completing several Elliott-Waves. After a new ABC correction from the 160,00 cts high, prices could start a new 5-Wave up to test the upper line of the major channel at ~175,50 cts. The certified inventories sliding below the magical number of 1 million bags would support this move.
Certified Coffee Inventory
bilderupload.org
Chart
GBP CAD bullish ⬆️GBP CAD bullish Head and shoulder pattern and Cup pattern together. when broken this resistance Buying will be strong
an analyse about coffee kc in 15 min frame "sell"I think there is no volume but I think it's time to sell
COFF Long (+ I LOVE DRINKING COFFEE)LSE:COFF
WisdomTree Coffee is designed to enable investors to gain an exposure to a total return investment in coffee by tracking the Bloomberg Coffee Subindex (the "Index") and providing a collateral yield.
WisdomTree Coffee is an exchange traded commodity ("ETC"). Its securities can be created and redeemed on demand by authorised participants and traded on exchange just like shares in a company. The ETC is backed by swaps. The payment obligations of the swap counterparties to the Issuer are protected by collateral held which is marked to market daily. The collateral is held in segregated accounts at The Bank of New York Mellon. Details of the collateral held can be found in the Collateral section of the WisdomTree website (www.wisdomtree.com).
Coffee JO nice VCP Triangle breakoutsSome nice VCP / Saucer Handle patterns on JO as it continues to climb higher.
Watch for a break higher if it can chew through 67 zone resistance
Break lower out of triangle / trendline support invalidates long idea.
On a macro level we're seeing bullish setups in AG complex (coffee , rice, wheat, corn, soybeans, etc.) , coupled with inflation coffee should run.
Personally I've noticed my local coffee shops also charging $1 per cold brew which supports the bull case.
Starbucks (NASDAQ: $SBUX) Looks Like Great Value Play! ☕Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee worldwide. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee and tea beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, single serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Evolution Fresh, Ethos, Starbucks Reserve, and Princi brands. As of October 3, 2021, it operated 16,826 company-operated and licensed stores in North America; and 17,007 company-operated and licensed stores internationally. The company was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
JO Fibonacci SetupThis speed resistance fan has been very well respected. If price doesn't make a higher high, I would expect a re-test of previous resistance at $58 which is also .5 fib retracement, a fresh daily level, and an old weekly level. Would potentially trade up to 1:1 extension.
COFFEE WK1: 100% Gains SWING setup BUY/HOLD(NEW)(SL/TP)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview?
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COFFEE WK1: 100% Gains SWING setup BUY/HOLD(NEW)(SL/TP)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: COFFEE WK2 chart review
::: chart is LOG SCALE
::: setup still valid expecting
::: 100% gains final TP BULLS
::: global inflation driving prices
::: also global warming heavy impact
::: cycle high for the market is near
::: 440/460 USD BULLS control the market
::: 12/24 months as global economy
::: is starting the recovery right now
::: BULLISH CYCLE is ON BUY DIPS
::: BUY/HOLD get paid / swing trade setup
::: BUY ANY DIPS / final TP bulls is 460 USD
::: 100% upside from current market price
::: WAIT for dips and reload (BULLS)
::: recommend to BUY/HOLD
::: recommended strategy: BUY/HOLD
::: bullish super cycle in coffee market
::: SWING trade setup do not expect
::: fast/miracle overnights gains here
::: good luck traders
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
::: 100USD fresh demand zone
::: 460USD fresh supply zone
🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies
::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A
::: Sentiment short-term: BULLS / MORE GAINS
::: Sentiment outlook mid-term: BULLS / SUPER CYCLE
RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
$SBUX Target 101.16$SBUX Target 101.16
So this target hasn’t changed… still 101.
I currently am selling at both target 1 & 2, and if we get a good sell off I’ll be looking to target 3 as well… (75/June expiry)
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I usually trade both ways, but lately I’ve been focusing more to the downside because of how high the market is. It makes more sense to sell puts right now, and I’m usually at Target 2.
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I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you. Check out my ideas, but also do your own due diligence.
I am not a bull. I am not a bear. I just see what I see in the charts and I don’t pay too much attention to the noise in the news.
Very often you have to look at my charts from the perspective of where I’m looking to sell puts. But I also do open positions still once in a while.
If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can.
Have fun, y’all!!
(\_/)
( •_•)
/ >🚀
Coffee causing a stir in commodity markets- Aneeka Gupta, Director, Macroeconomic Research, WisdomTree
Coffee prices are trading at their highest level in 10 years and is the second-best performing commodity Year to date (Ytd)1. A combination of a production shortfall in Brazil (the world’s largest coffee producer) due to extreme weather conditions coupled with supply disruptions should continue to propel coffee prices higher in 2022.
Lower inventory levels to keep prices vulnerable to supply shocks
The coffee harvest has a biennial cycle. This implies that a crop year with a good harvest (the “on year”) will be followed by a crop year with a lower harvest (the “off-year”). The last crop in Brazil was disappointing not only because it was an off-year, but Brazil also faced unfavourable weather conditions resulting in weaker supply. This was evident from Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento’s (“CONAB”) latest estimate for Brazil’s 2021/22 coffee crop, which is down 25.7% over the prior year3. As a consequence of lower output, global ending inventories are expected to decline from 7.9mn bags to 32mn. The weaker forecast represents the lower availability of coffee for exports, following weather setbacks to the 2021 harvest and logistical bottlenecks. Further obstacles have emerged towards the latter half of 2021 in the form of elevated shipping costs and high fertilizer prices, which are also likely to lend a tailwind to coffee prices. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Brazil’s coffee exports are expected to slump by 12.45mn bags over the prior year to 33.22mn bags in 2021/224. A decline of that level would represent the largest decline in volume terms by a distance and the sharpest fall in percentage terms at 27% since 1985/86. USDA has been citing more cases of “defaults”, where coffee farmers failed to deliver pre-agreed contracts on the physical market because of excessive hoarding of coffee beans amidst the steep rise in prices. USDA also expects global consumption to rise by 1.8 million bags to 165.0 million, with the largest gains in the European Union, the United States, and Brazil.
Outlook for 2022/23 clouded in uncertainty
While the Brazilian 2022/23 coffee crop will be an on year (of the biennial cycle), there is still plenty of uncertainty shrouding the outlook of the coffee crop. According to Fitch, the La Nina5 weather phenomenon could cause further problems for the upcoming crop. The arrival of the La Nina weather phenomenon, which tends to bring dryness in the southern part of South America for the second consecutive year, has also dampened the outlook for the coffee crop in the upcoming season.
Conclusion
The supply tightness on the physical market has also pushed the front end of the coffee futures curve into backwardation from contango, thereby yielding a positive roll yield of 0.2% versus -1.4% a month back. Coffee stocks in the International Continental Exchange’s (ICE) warehouses have declined further and currently find themselves at a 9-month low of 1.78mn bags. Net speculative positioning in coffee remains 1-standard deviation above the 5-year average underscoring the bullish sentiment towards coffee. While the recent rise of the Omicron variant could threaten demand as countries decide to restrain mobility, we believe the fast-spreading variant could also complicate supply-chain disruptions and potentially drive Arabica prices higher.
Sources
1 Bloomberg, tracking commodity futures price from 31 December 2020 to 8 December 2021
2 Bloomberg Ticker - KCA Comdty, price performance from 31 December 2020 to 8 December 2021
3 Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab) – Brazil leading coffee forecasting agency
4 United States Department of Agriculture – Coffee: World Markets and Trade Report
5 La Niña is a complex weather pattern that occurs every few years, as a result of variations in ocean temperatures in the equatorial band of the Pacific
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
