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Coffee

Coffee daily/4h descending triangle to the weekly support levelCoffee is forming a descending triangle in the daily/4h chart. Also, the price is at a major support/resistance level. There will be a retest at 130-131 level. If rejected again, most likely the price will fall down to the 115 level in the short-mid term. There is a good support level in the weekly chart, most probably this will hold and coffee could become bullish again. This time it will target 160. This is just an idea, not trade advice. Do your own research.
ICEUS:KC1!Short
by titusj
Stocks drop and rising interest rates Commodities set to rise!As the stocks correct by 10% or more, I believe that the coming commodity bull market is set to come very early. The second factor for a commodity bull market is the rising interest rates. This is very bad for stocks, growth stocks especially as they cannot borrow more money to grow their company. The third and a bit smaller factor is that the dxy is rising and if the dollar rises, the stocks fall and then commodities rise. This is a hot new market to look for here. Warning2 I am not a financial adviser and take this with a grain of salt. Happy trading!
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by informalStar16695
1
Weekly coffee market review 12/21/2020.Support us by consulting our free magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed higher at 125.25 ct/lb. Arabica coffee prices, although they could not reach them, approached the highs of August. The USDA reduced world coffee production by 0.34% to 175.50 million bags. They forecast world coffee demand for the same period at 165.40 million bags. Their latest forecast would indicate the potential for a world coffee surplus of 10.1 million bags. CONAB, announced that Brazilian coffee producers, due to positive biennial factors for Arabica coffee plantations, are expected to produce 63.08 million bags for the season from July 2020 to June 2021. This estimate has been revised upwards by 2.36% compared to their previous estimate of 61.62 million bags. CONAB has revised its projections for Arabica coffee production upwards by 3.17% compared to its last estimate, which is now expected to total 48.80 million bags, while Robusta production has also been revised upwards by 0.70% compared to their last estimate to 14.30 million bags. The area under coffee cultivation in Brazil increased by 3.9% in 2020 compared to the previous year, to 1.88 million hectares. On the international level, the Republican leader of the Senate Mitch McConnell announced Sunday evening that a 900 billion agreement would be reached. The Fed said its stock purchases would continue at the current rate of $120 billion per month until substantial additional progress has been made. The brexit saga continues, with the European Parliament's Sunday night deadline for a deal passed, but negotiations will continue. No one seems to want to take responsibility for a possible failure. After Pfizer, the FDA also approved Moderna's vaccine. As far as the pandemic is concerned, the vaccination campaign has started in the United States. The new strain of coronavirus detected in Great Britain worries, it would be 70% more contagious. The global death toll is rising, we have just passed 76 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.692 million deaths. The United States is still the most affected country, with 317,000 deaths and more than 17 million cases. The Dollar fell last week, with the DXY closing lower at 89.924, hitting a 2 1/2 year low. The long-term trend is still bearish. WEATHER IN BRAZIL 90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana. The rainy season has started and lasts until April-May. Rainfall was below normal in October and November in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. Last week, rains were below normal, especially in northern Minas Gerais. However, the wet weather in December is perceived as more favorable for the next harvest. Heavy rains are expected next week. ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS Coffee stocks are up to 1.370 million 60 Kg bags, compared to 1.324 last week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week down to 89.924, hitting a 2 1/2 year low. The long-term trend is still bearish. The possibilities of reaching an agreement on a contingency plan to support the U.S. economy, as well as the possibility of an economic recovery, are expected to continue. Disappointing economic results weighed on the currency last week. Indeed, U.S. Retail Sales down to -0.9% and Unemployment Claims up to 885K disappointed. The Brazilian Real closed stable at 0.1962 last week. The Brazilian Real has been benefiting in recent weeks from the falling Dollar, breaking the bearish channel it was in, and benefiting greatly from the rise in coffee prices this past week. If the dollar's downtrend remains unchanged, the Real will surely test the 0.20 it hasn't reached since June. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A low Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The speculative net position on the cotton futures markets is up this week to 36.105 K instead of 31.519 K.
ICEUS:KC1!
by Commodity-market-review
Weekly coffee market review 12/14/2020.Support us by consulting our free magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed higher at 121.60 ct/lb. The International Coffee Organization ICO reported that world coffee exports for October were 3.19% higher than the same month last year at 9.672 million bags. Cumulative world coffee exports for the first 10 months of 2020 were 3.8% lower than the previous year, totalling 107.08 million bags. According to the ICO, world coffee supply is estimated at 168.55 million bags over the last 12 months, and world consumption at around 167.59 million bags. This would result in a world coffee market in slight oversupply. The association of coffee exporters in Brazil Cecafé reported that exports were 3.69 million bags of Arabica coffee, an increase of 33.85% compared to the same month last year. Regarding Robusta coffee, the trade in Vietnam is now in full swing as farmers begin to supply more and more coffee. The harvest is estimated to be 25% complete and is accelerating now that weather conditions are more favorable and drier. Forecasts are estimated for this new crop, between 27 million and 28 million bags for Vietnam and 11.60 million bags for Indonesia. In Brazil, more favourable weather in early December is being observed with heavy rains over the vast coffee growing areas in Brazil. The rainy weather is welcome after months of drier weather, although irreversible damage will be expected. Local consumption in Brazil, at around 21.50 million bags per year, is expected to be slightly lower overall this year. Internationally, the ECB has increased its asset repurchase program by 500 billion, the US support plan is still slow in coming, and a brexit no-deal is increasingly likely. The FDA in turn is approving the use of Pfizer's vaccine, and vaccination begins this week in the US. In terms of the pandemic update, we have just surpassed 72 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.607 million deaths. The U.S. is still the most affected country, and will approach and surpass the 300,000 mark in deaths and more than 16 million cases. The Dollar consolidated last week as the DXY closed higher at 90.976, with the long-term trend still bearish. WEATHER IN BRAZIL 90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana. The rainy season has started and lasts until April-May. Rainfall was below normal in October and November in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. Last week, rains were abundant, with up to 75 to 100 mm, especially in Minas Gerais. The rainy weather in December is seen as more favorable for the next harvest. Next week, heavy rains are also expected, but this time further south in Sao Paulo and Parana. ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS Coffee stocks are up to 1.324 million 60 kg bags, compared to 1.294 last week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up at 90.976, although the long-term trend is still bearish. The DXY consolidated last week. The ECB increased its asset repurchase program by $500 billion, and, the U.S. support plan is still lagging behind, still failing to agree on emergency aid of just over $900 billion. The dollar has also strengthened against the pound sterling, on an increasingly likely no-deal, as the disagreements seem so deep. Last week, the Brazilian Real closed higher at 0.1971, for the 4th consecutive week. The Brazilian Real has been benefiting in recent weeks from the falling Dollar, breaking the bearish channel it was in, and benefiting greatly from the rise in coffee prices this past week. If the dollar's downtrend remains unchanged, the Real will surely test the 0.20 it hasn't reached since June. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A low Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The speculative net position on the cotton futures markets is down this week to 31.519 K instead of 32.265 K.
ICEUS:KC1!
by Commodity-market-review
1
KC on a retest of the support 🦐KC after the last impulse at 134 level retraced back until the 0.786 of the previous leg at the 102 level. From there the market started a new leg up until the daily resistance at 124. Price retraced back and moved in a range between the 0.382 over a support and the resistance structure and recently broke above. IF the price will not break below and give us new sign of inversion will be set a nice long order according to Plancton' s strategy. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by InkyGrip
2