Coffee_analysis
Coffee Can Become Cheaper - Reaching Reversal FCP ZoneTraders, Coffee like other commodities has been on a huge run this year. But now it has reached a point of pause, correction and possibly reversal too. So coffee futures can fall down from the FCP zone. Wait for a confirmation as the market has been trending hard upwards.
Rules:
1. Never trade too much
2. Never trade without a confirmation
3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too
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-Vik
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📌 DISCLAIMER
The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only.
Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions.
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LKNCY Repeating MA patternIt can be seen after the MA arrives and makes a small turn towards the upside, price immediately follows
This can be observed on the latest MA (yellow)
The price is within a Rising Wedge (a bearish pattern) but this observation of the MA's give me hope for a bull breakout, as can be seen with each MA in the past
Expect the price of your cup of coffee to increase. We have both technical and fundamental justifications as to why coffee is the next inflationary trade to jump into.
With supply chain issues and the seasonal changes in Brazil affecting coffee production and shipping, we can expect the value of the black breakfast gold to rise. Latin American coffee farmers are also reported to have gone on strike in the last few months to demand better prices for their produce as they are barely turning a profit.
Technical wise, the symmetrical triangle break shows us the fundamentals are playing out on the charts.
COFFEE:UPTREND|NEW BULLISH FIBO IMPULSE| LONG SETUP 🔔Welcome back Traders, Investors, and Community!
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Coffee (KC); Let's get ready to break out those SHORTs ...... Again. Wait for it, tough! Let the U$D bottom vs. the Real, first, this being a pure currency play on the USD/BRL. (Fundamentals don't matter here; The market is balanced, nothing is happening - despite the occasional make-belief news flashes to the contrary.)
Made an awful lot of money on the way up here ;-) and now, it's time to cash in on the upcoming sell-off.
COFFEE - LONG (for now); Free coffee for your Great Depression!Could Coffee drop to $0 (or even go negative), much like crude oil did not too long ago??... You be the judge.
While currently long (a generational speculative bubble and all), this is likely the one to watch for one of the greatest Short Setups in ages!
Here is the Monthly. See it, yet?...
No?!
The Quarterly;
How about now?
Still no?! Let me zoom in for you.
Stocks drop and rising interest rates Commodities set to rise!As the stocks correct by 10% or more, I believe that the coming commodity bull market is set to come very early. The second factor for a commodity bull market is the rising interest rates. This is very bad for stocks, growth stocks especially as they cannot borrow more money to grow their company. The third and a bit smaller factor is that the dxy is rising and if the dollar rises, the stocks fall and then commodities rise. This is a hot new market to look for here. Warning2 I am not a financial adviser and take this with a grain of salt. Happy trading!
COFFEE REVERSE H&S PATTERN| TRADING PLAN|
COFFEE has reached a confluence of strong support lines, so I am looking for a long opportunity.
Now, we can see that there has been a breakout of the downwards channel resistance upwards
This breakout was also a breakout of the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders pattern.
Now, we are waiting for the 4h candle to close ABOVE the neckline and we are going long from the pullback.
Sl below the right shoulder high. Two take level are the two resistance levels that you can see on the chart.
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COFFEE - Possible "coffee break" aheadCoffee is back around the price of the beginning of the month.
Since OCT 2 we have a shy uptrend forming for coffee’s standards, in the 4h time frame (TF).
The price went up from its lowest of the current month and $104.90 to $113.35 (+8.04%) on OCT 12 and $111.70 (+6.45%) today so far.
The trend on the Higher TFs is still bearish and technically this is where are now.
We have some indications suggesting that we might be in front of a total reversal for the price of Coffee.
There are:
1) Higher lows since OCT 2
2) at the 4h TF since OCT 9 from the 10 bars 8 of them are above the 50MA
3) we had two major tests (and rejections) for price to break above two week resistance
4) we expect the price to reach at some point soon the monthly Fib 0.382 level
Against the above are the latest data from the COT report of OCT 6 where hedge funds closed 3.207 positions and opened 4.219 bringing the Net Long positions to 47.505 from 54.931 the previous week. Of course we still don’t know what their positions are for the current week.
So what we make out of all this.
To put it in simple terms with what I know so far the longer the price remains above the 50MA the more the chances of it breaking the $112 and move towards the Fib 0.382. The “Decision lvl” is where the two weeks resistance meets the blue trendline. Break it and we buy.
If on the other hand price breaks below the green trend line and the 20MA then we might be looking for more to the down.
Good luck traders
Note: I'm no trading expert nor have the ambition to become one! The above is just an idea that I share with the intention of attracting comments and perhaps become a better trader.
The decline is not done yet. ExplainedCoffee reached our target at 120. However, there is still no signal the decline is done and we want to follow the trend. The support is broken and it makes me believe there is a big chance we can see a retest of important support/resistance near 104. So, if you still hold your shorts, consider adding trailing stops and let the good time roll.
Trend change is coming. Potential entries and targetsThe COT report is bearish, the seasonal tendency is to the downside. We have a divergence in the 4h chart. So, where do we sell? I think breaking below Thursday's low or formation of lower high would be good entries. 120 has been an important level for Coffee. It has to be tested again and it is our swing target.