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Coinbaseanalysis

COIN- Fundamental and technical analysis****NOT THE INVESTMENT ADVICE**** I'm neutral in my assessment. Please do your own due diligence. In this analysis, I leave out external and macro factors such as crypto adoption and regulatory concern. Rather, I want to focus on things Coinbase can control. Main points- To start off, I believe Coinbase has the bright future and its biggest risk is the execution risk. However, in order for it to succeed, few conditions need to be fulfilled. ***The big bets need to take off (NFT market place, potential derivative offerings & Dapp marketplace and Coinbase wallet). When they do, the subscription and service revenue would go up and the decoupling may happen (crypto market price crash will have less effect on the COIN price) or at the very least Coinbase will be less dependent on the trading revenue, which currently accounts for 87% of the total revenue). ***NFT marketplace must take off next year- Both FTX and Binance have tried, but they failed to win the significant market share from OpenSea. What other strategies does Coinbase have to win market shares from OpenSea other than enhanced social features and trading fee waiver when the overall pie isn’t growing? (NFT trading volume and floor price are trending lower) ***Coinbase wallet must acquire more market share- How can Coinbase monetize the wallet when the market-leader MetaMask is provided for free? The success of Coinbase wallet is essential so Coinbase doesn’t become just another fiat on-ramp provider. It’s also instrumental to Coinbase’s overarching strategy of becoming all-encompassing platform where users can access all crypto-related activities. ***How to extract more revenue from institutional investors? Any strategies to increase the custodial fee and commerce fee? The upside- Cardano staking- Most of the subscription and service revenue come from the blockchain reward and the blockchain reward itself is consisted of mostly staking revenue. Cardano staking may further boost the blockchain reward revenue when it’s already the second biggest revenue source for Coinbase. Coinbase is focusing on its long-term vision- DeFi, Protocols+Web Infra and NFT/Mertaverse account for 60% of Coinbase’s ventu res portfolio. This is important as most major use cases in crypto ecosystem come from DeFi, NFT and DAO space. Still the most trusted brand with advanced and industry-leading security features. It has the security infrastructure and regulatory compliance advantage against international competitors such as FTX and Binance. While against domestic competitors such as Gemini and Kraken, it has the crypto offering advantage. Strong balance sheet enables Coinbase to acquire competitors during the crypto winter. Most of its long-term debts are convertible notes with the earliest maturity date in 2026. Still the leader of regulated U.S exchanges based on the spot volume, around 46% in 2021. Coinbase has recently become the first-ever crypto firm to join the Fortune 500 list of the largest U.S. firms by revenue. One caveat is that there are no strong barrier and switching cost that would prevent Coinbase customers from going to another exchange. More sustainable moat can be achieved if Coinbase can create a platform that provides all-access to crypto activities, realizing its long-term vision of becoming the Amazon of crypto services. Problem diagnosis- Verified user, trading volume, MTU and ATRPU are the most important metrics to watch out for in addition to other common financial metrics. The persistent theme is that the the declining trade volume and MTU (Monthly transacting users) are hurting Coinbase. Trading revenue accounts for 87% of overall revenue, the rest in subscription and service revenue, mostly in blockchain reward from staking. Retail only accounts for 23% of trading volume, but it accounts for 95% of trading revenue- Retail actually pays 14x the fee compared to institutional. Not much revenue is generated from institutional clients even though they dominate the trading volume because they receive deep discount for executing large trade, bringing in the flow, proving liquidity and acting as market makers. As soon as there’s some regulatory clarity, trading fee erosion can happen when bigger financial institutions and banks decide to enter the space, leading to the race to the bottom effect. Decline in retail trading volume while Institutional trading volume actually went up during the same time- Altcoins now account for fully 55% of transaction volumes and they are likely contributing to the rapid decline of retail transaction volume. Retails trade a lot of altcoins during the bull market and they stop trading altcoins in bearish market or when the volatility is low. Institutionals, on the other hands, trade mostly in Bitcoin and Ethereum and their trading volume is less affected by the market downturn. One could argue that this is the downside of adding more risky assets on the platform as it adds more volatility during the bear market, though these same assets flourish and bring in a lot of revenue during the bull market. Therefore, it’s a double edged sword. Increase in verified users and MTU may not translate to increase in ATRPU- Increasingly, users are engaging in more non-trading activities such as yield-generating staking which generates far less revenue than high-fee trading activities. This is not necessarily a bad thing as Coinbase has always been pushing for a more diversified revenue stream.
 In summary, Coinbase will likely continue to have more verified users, but even if those verified users become MTU, it may still experience the decline in revenue and ATRPU because of the decline in retail trading volume, trading activity and trading fee unless Coinbase can somehow find ways to extract more revenues from institutional clients and increase the percentage of the subscription and service revenue in total revenue. The downside- Weakening guidance as the company anticipated further decline in trading volume and MTU in 2022 Horizontal analysis revealed that Equity-Based Compensation (EBC) and SG&A ballooned while revenue suffered this quarter, leading to the weakening operating leverage. This concern is somewhat addressed during the recent 18% layoff as Coinbase aims to keep the EBITDA loss around 500 mil in the face of decline ATRPU, NOPAT and FCF. Impairment cost rule means Coinbase could suffer more non-cash loss on its crypto asset investment in the near future if the market selloff triggered by the Terra/Luna debacle and over-leverage unwind continues. Despite the strong balance sheet, customer custodial funds account for nearly 50% of the total asset, making Coinbase susceptible to the potential bank run risk. Coinbase recently filed shelf registration statement with the SEC. Just a minor concern as It has no intention to issue any new stocks anytime soon. Structural and ecosystem risk- Coinbase has strong interdependent and venture capital relationship with many crypto firms it invests and supports in its venture portfolio. Any insolvency and liquidity issues these firms experience during the prolonged bear crypto market could potentially have the negative impact on Coinbase’s operation. In summary, Coinbase has never been hit by bad macro environment and crypto downturn at the same time. In order for it to navigate through the current bear crypto market, Coinbase needs to apply the combination of financial prudence and execution nimbleness while making sure the development of high-priority product and service can continue unaffected.
NASDAQ:COIN
by Libratus
1
Coinbase: Lawsuits over 'stablecoins'!!Coinbase Short Term - We look to Sell at 79.05 (stop at 97.30 ) The primary trend remains bearish. We are assessed to be in a corrective mode higher. A move higher faces tough resistance and we remain cautious on upside potential. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Further downside is expected. Our profit targets will be 30.50 and 25 Resistance: 70.00 / 75.00 / 80.00 Support: 65.00 / 60.00 / 55.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NASDAQ:COINShort
by VantageMarkets
Coinbase: Further Trouble Ahead? Coinbase - Short Term - We look to Sell at 220.20 (stop at 238.84) We look to sell rallies. Previous support at 220.00 now becomes resistance. 20 1day EMA is at 210.00. The primary trend remains bearish. The move lower was negative for sentiment and confirms our bearish bias. Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 220.00, resulting in improved risk/reward. Our profit targets will be 166.73 and 122.05 Resistance: 200.00 / 220.00 / 250.00 Support: 150.00 / 125.00 / 100.00 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
NASDAQ:COINShort
by Saxo
1
COIN Coinbase: Critical AreaHello friends, today you can review the technical analysis on a 1D linear scale chart for Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN), a stock traded on the Nasdaq exchange. Please review the chart as it is self explanatory. The key is to break the resistance line as the price is in a critical area. The overall pattern is a bearish one (Ascending Broadening Wedge or Rising Broadening Wedge) so there is concern for potential downside if the price breaks below the bottom support line. Also noted in the chart: Volume, Support and Resistance Lines, RSI (relative strength index), and various trendlines. If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. As the year is coming to an end and holidays are almost here. I want to wish my friends Happy Holidays and ready for an exciting 2022! What are your thoughts for the coming year? Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis . Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
NASDAQ:COIN
by MillionaireEconomics
8
BOTTOM LINE ENTRY POINT IDENTIFIED - COINBASE - COIN - DAILYCoinBase price have strongly decreased when the initial investors probably took their profit on first listing days. The trend starts to show some early patterns. The black bottom line it the not much elastic uptrend line. That is where it is likely good to entrer long. The green line shows a range which is double up showing the red possible strongest resistance level. Beware and see here the volumes are matching with pullbacks and strong breaks. It is illustrated with the green circles. Potentially keep an eye on the black line where a pullback up is possible and the square (orange) is here just to observe what is going to happen when the price will be at that level (Our imaginary green uptrend line which has seen in the past strong pullbacks or a significative break in the long direction) Not a financial advice please do your own search.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
COIN Coinbase sold by ARKK fund???Is Cathie Wood`s ARK fund anticipating a top in the crypto space right now? On 10/12/2021 ARKK fund sold 5,855 shares of COIN COINBASE GLOBAL INC, for about 1.5Mil usd. When the fund starts a sell, it`s usually a multiple day sell on "small" positions. In this case it was 1.5Mil worth of shares. The only thing that makes me optimistic right now about Coinbase, is the NFT marketplace. On Oct. 12 Coinbase NFT was launched, a peer-to-peer marketplace that lets users mint, collect and trade NFTs, or non-fungible tokens. On the other hand, on 10/14/2021 Devin Ryan from JMP Securities Boosted the Price Target with an Outperform rating from $300.00 to $330.00 This is a one year price target. I`m looking forward to read your opinion on it.
NASDAQ:COINShort
by TopgOptions
1
COIN Daily TimeframeSNIPER STRATEGY (new version) It works ALMOST ON ANY CHART. It produces Weak, Medium and Strong signals based on consisting elements. NOT ALL TARGETS CAN BE ACHIEVED, let's make that clear. TARGETS OR ENTRY PRICES ARE STRONG SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS. ENTRY PRICE BLACK COLOR TARGETS GREEN COLOR STOP LOSS RED COLOR DO NOT USE THIS STROTEGY FOR LEVERAGED TRADING. It will not give you the whole wave like any other strategy out there but it will give you a huge part of the wave. The BEST TIMEFRAMES for this strategy are Daily, Weekly and Monthly however it can work on any timeframe. Consider those points and you will have a huge advantage in the market. There is a lot more about this strategy. It can predict possible target and also give you almost exact buy or sell time on the spot. I am developing it even more so stay tuned and start to follow me for more signals and forecasts. START BELIEVING AND GOOD LUCK HADIMOZAYAN
NASDAQ:COINShort
by hadimozayan
COINBASE Daily TimeframeSNIPER STRATEGY This magical strategy works like a clock on almost any charts Although I have to say it can’t predict pullbacks, so I do not suggest this strategy for leverage trading. It will not give you the whole wave like any other strategy out there but it will give you huge part of the wave. The best timeframe for this strategy is Daily, Weekly and Monthly however it can work any timeframe above three minutes. Start believing in this strategy because it will reward believers with huge profit. There is a lot more about this strategy. It can predict and also it can give you almost exact buy or sell time on the spot. I am developing it even more so stay tuned and start to follow me for more signals and forecasts.
NASDAQ:COINShort
by hadimozayan
COINBASE 72% PoP 30% Profit with short put vertical strategy TA at 1HR TF (because this stock is new, no daily history) Quick Coinbase play at high IVR, reasons: - trend changed: higher high , lower lows - divergence at bottom - my strike is last bottom as support- $260 - I have very plenty safety zone - Buying power arrieved as volume Max profit: $220 Probability of Profit: 72% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 28% Max loss with my risk management: ~$290 Req. Buy Power: $780 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 93 (ultra high) Expiry: 38 days Buy 1 COIN Jun18' 250 Put Sell 1 COIN Jun18' 260 Put Credit Put spread for 2.2cr, because IVR is very high. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 290$. Probability of loss in this way: ~10% . Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.77db. Probability of profit this way: ~90%. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NASDAQ:COINLong
by TanukiTrade
COIN (COINBASE) Options Trading Now AvailableInvestors got a new way to bet on the fortunes of Coinbase Global as options on the cryptocurrency exchange's stock started trading with healthy volume on Tuesday. About 22,000 Coinbase contracts traded by late afternoon, with puts outnumbering calls slightly, and volume should hit 31,000 by the end of the day Puts convey the right to sell the stock at a set price at a future date, while calls provide the right to buy it at a certain price at a future date. Coinbase recently went public in a high-profile direct listing on Nasdaq, where - unlike a traditional initial public offering - no shares are sold ahead of the opening. Trading volume in Coinbase options was robust but fell short of other popular stocks' options launches. For instance, Facebook's options traded about 360,000 contracts on their first day in 2012. Less than a week after the exchange's stock market debut on Nasdaq, Cboe Global Markets, Nasdaq, the Intercontinental Exchange and other exchanges launched trade in Coinbase equity options It's not fireworks," said Henry Schwartz, head of product intelligence at Cboe. "Still, volume isn't bad." For Coinbase, the lack of a lockup period, where a bar on selling stock can prompt investors to turn to options to protect their holding, may have taken away one source of demand, Schwartz said. Still, strong retail interest in Coinbase bodes well for the options. Following its launch last week, Coinbase drew massive retail buying, with over $100 million worth of shares, on a net basis, taken up in the first two days of trading, according to Eric Liu, head of research at Vanda Research. For Coinbase, the lack of a lockup period, where a bar on selling stock can prompt investors to turn to options to protect their holding, may have taken away one source of demand, Schwartz said. Still, strong retail interest in Coinbase bodes well for the options. Following its launch last week, Coinbase drew massive retail buying, with over $100 million worth of shares, on a net basis, taken up in the first two days of trading, according to Eric Liu, head of research at Vanda Research. SUPPORT- $290, $275, $250-$240 RESISTENCE- $305,$325, $350, $360, $380, $400, $450 Sector: Technology Services Industry: Packaged Software Coinbase Global, Inc. operates as a secure hosted bitcoin wallet to purchase and use bitcoin . It provides merchant tools that enable companies to accept payments in bitcoin by incorporating a single button. The company was founded by Brian Armstrong in 2012 and is headquartered in San Francisco Where will it list? Coinbase is set to go public on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “COIN” as a direct listing, meaning it isn’t raising new money, as a company would in a traditional IPO . Coinbase is the Nasdaq’s first major direct listing, with Spotify SPOT , Slack Technologies WORK and most recently Palantir all opting to directly list at the NYSE. Valuations? Nasdaq assigned Coinbase a reference price of $250 a share on Tuesday evening, which values it at over $65 billion. On Wednesday, Coinbase stock was indicated to open around $350, or 40% above its reference price. Coinbase, whose users primarily deal in bitcoin and ethereum , reported last week that its revenue soared 847% in the first quarter to $1.8 billion, and that it now has 56 million verified users. Leeor Shimron, an analyst at FundStrat Global Advisors, described the Coinbase listing as seminal. “Coinbase’s direct listing is a watershed moment for the crypto industry.”
NASDAQ:COINLong
by MavRich_Trading
1
COINBASE - IPO HAS GREAT POTENTIAL (LONG-TERM) ✨Newly released IPO with great potential ahead! - In a new crypto age, everyone is just catching on and for those who did before have generated mass amounts of wealth catching the train before it left. While the majority make their money from investing and trading, coin-base is guaranteed revenue from fees. As the crypto world grows, so will the buyers and the interest so will the revenue for exchanges like coin-base however this one in particular is one of the biggest players in this game and is wildly popular across the United States. - Technical analysis: We have not seen much price action since this is a newly launched IPO, however with the current situation we can only work with what we have and the only way to see current price action clearly is by dropping to lower time fames like the 15m chart, due to this it lacks strength. Our analysis is a sentiment for the upcoming week, month. Use this as a weather forecast, you are the person that has to put on a jacket when it’s raining. Trade this sentiment based off your own entry strategy at the right time. Flow with the Devil 😈 Trade with the manipulation👾
NASDAQ:COINLong
by FlyDownX
13
COINBASE Long term view targeting 500% gain I know i am being bit over optimistic on COINBASE . I think it very obvious that if Bitcoin goes up, the company revenue of Coinbase will also grow so also the price. If i compare with the price hike of MicroStrategy then around 500% gain is possible if the company operates smoothly. *** This is just for educational purpose, not an investment advice. I am not a financial advisor, I am just sharing my own analysis. Thanks for watching.
FWB:1QZLong
by crackthechart
COINBASE LISTING (COIN) HUGE MOMENT FOR CRYPTO Sector: Technology Services Industry: Packaged Software Coinbase Global, Inc. operates as a secure hosted bitcoin wallet to purchase and use bitcoin. It provides merchant tools that enable companies to accept payments in bitcoin by incorporating a single button. The company was founded by Brian Armstrong in 2012 and is headquartered in San Francisco Where will it list? Coinbase is set to go public on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “COIN” as a direct listing, meaning it isn’t raising new money, as a company would in a traditional IPO. Coinbase is the Nasdaq’s first major direct listing, with Spotify SPOT , Slack Technologies WORK and most recently Palantir all opting to directly list at the NYSE. Valuations? Nasdaq assigned Coinbase a reference price of $250 a share on Tuesday evening, which values it at over $65 billion. On Wednesday, Coinbase stock was indicated to open around $350, or 40% above its reference price. Coinbase, whose users primarily deal in bitcoin and ethereum, reported last week that its revenue soared 847% in the first quarter to $1.8 billion, and that it now has 56 million verified users. Leeor Shimron, an analyst at FundStrat Global Advisors, described the Coinbase listing as seminal. “Coinbase’s direct listing is a watershed moment for the crypto industry.” SUPPORT- $325, $305, $250 RESISTENCE- $350, $360, $380, $400, $450
NASDAQ:COINLong
by MavRich_Trading