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Bitcoin - No longer bullish, top in for the rally During the last week, we gave market participants an ultimate warning about the impending reversal in the market. Soon after we argued the top of the bear market rally might be in, Bitcoin fell more than 15%. A change in our short-term view is mainly influenced by technical factors, which point to the return of intense selling pressure. Indeed, we believe the current selloff will soon escalate into panic mode in the cryptocurrency sector. As a result, we expect highly elevated volatility and Bitcoin to drop to a new low. Our medium-term and long-term views remain unchanged as we expect bearish fundamental factors to stay persistent throughout 2022 and 2023. Additionally, we believe that the recession will bring risk-off sentiment, wreaking chaos in the stock market as well as the cryptocurrency market. Because of these reasons, and the ones described in our previous ideas, we stick to our price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows two bearish breakouts below prior support levels. Additionally, a build-up in volume accompanying a price drop is indicated on the bottom; this development is the ideal picture we wanted to see in order to confirm our bearish thesis. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is very bearish. MACD and Stochastic are bearish. DM+ and DM- performed bearish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is very bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows another bearish breakout below the sloping support, further bolstering the bearish case for BTCUSD. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.03 Above is the setup we introduced recently. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
38
Bitcoin - Professional selling to retail investors?Prior to the FED meeting, we speculated that the rally could falter with another rate hike. However, after the 2.04% decline following the FED decision, Bitcoin erased its early losses and made a new high at 21 473$. That is a bullish development, although we still remain bearish for the medium and the long term. Indeed, after a brief period of bullishness, we are slowly but surely turning bearish on BTC in the short term as well. Accordingly, we stay committed to our price targets of 17 500$ and 15 000$. Despite that, we can not ignore the prospect of rally continuation. Therefore, we will pay close attention to the price action and volume. Ideally, we would like to see a pick-up in volume and subsequent selling pressure to confirm our bearish bias. Contrarily, to support the opposite bullish view, we would like to see the price attempt to test resistance at 22 781$. We would like to point out different relationships between the price and volume across various exchanges displayed in the illustrations below. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the relationship between the price and volume on the exchange FTX. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the relationship between the price and volume on the exchange Binance. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows the relationship between the price and volume on the exchange Kraken. Illustration 1.04 Illustration 1.04 shows the relationship between the price and volume on the exchange Bitstamp. Illustration 1.05 Illustration 1.05 shows the relationship between the price and volume in the futures market. Technical analysis - daily time frame MACD flattens. RSI trends sideways, and Stochastic performed a bearish crossover. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish but shows signs of exhaustion. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic point to the upside, although they still remain within bearish zones. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
19
Bitcoin - Risk appettite is not picking up muchTwo days ago, Bitcoin broke above the sloping resistance, which is bullish in the short term. However, then it quickly erased gains, and the breakout became invalidated. So far, despite the ongoing rally in the stock market, the price action in Bitcoin has remained muted. We believe that reflects a lack of risk appetite among market participants. Indeed, at the current stock market value, we would expect BTCUSD to trade much higher from the current level; yet, it merely continues the choppy price action near the 19 300 USD price tag. That tells us something is not exactly right. Therefore, we are very cautious. As for the price targets, they remain unchanged at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD due to the persistence of macroeconomic factors. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support/resistance levels. The yellow arrow points to the bullish breakout above the sloping resistance; volume is declining throughout the rise, which is not particularly bullish. Technical analysis - daily time frame Stochastic is bullish. MACD is rising but still below the 0 points; if it breaks above, it will be a bullish sign. RSI is neutral. DM+ and DM- are causing whipsaws, with the ADX hinting at the neutral trend. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral. Illustration 1.02 Simple moving averages on the daily chart of BTCUSD reflect the neutral nature of the prevailing short-term trend that is currently in place. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and Stochastic are trending sideways in the lower bound of the bearish zone. MACD points to the upside but stays in the bearish zone as well. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
81
Bitcoin - Correlation with the stock market represents a hurdleWith the market, Bitcoin saw a sharp reversal yesterday and retraced back into the proximity of the 20 000 USD pricetag. In our opinion, this price action, once again, represents merely a short-lived bounce predestined to falter later. However, we can not ignore the odds of this price action continuing a little bit further. Therefore, for more clues about the continuation, we will watch the price's ability to break above the sloping and short-term resistance. These developments will bolster the bullish case in the short term. However, in the face of another rate hike, worsening economic data, and progressing recession, we have difficulty believing that this recent move represents any significant change in the primary trend. In fact, we believe that the current bounce in cryptocurrencies provides a great opportunity for repositioning on the short side. Therefore, we have no reason to change our bearish stance and stay committed to our price targets of 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows support and resistance levels for BTCUSD. Technical analysis - daily time frame MACD points to the upside; if it breaks above 0 points, it will be very bullish. Stochastic and RSI are rising. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bullish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 portrays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow hints at the retracement from yesterday. The high correlation between the stock market and cryptocurrencies suggests that no primary trend reversal will happen. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are rising slightly. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
15
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) - Potential Support Zone - Daily chartBitcoin (BTC/USD) has temporarily found a Support zone price level above $18,000. If price can hold above the $18,000 for a significant period of time (e.g. weeks and months), then a bull rally reversal could possibly occur. However, if support is broken to the downside, price could continue a price downtrend. Support zone price levels: $18000, $17000, $16000, $13000, $12000. Resistance zone price levels: $20000, $22000, $24000, $30000, $35000. note: global events such as stock market earnings, government policy changes, and social sentiment can affect cryptocurrency volatility.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by NoFomoCharts
2
Bitcoin - Do not get ahead of the marketWith Bitcoin jumping above 20 000 USD, we again see a rise in bullish ideas all over the place, claiming bottoms, new all-time highs, and even trend reversal in spite of bearish macroeconomic factors. Despite that, however, elevated volatility and wild swings in the price do not concern us. Quite the contrary, they give us confidence as the market sentiment reflects what it should be in the bear market - constant swings in the mood of market participants, people trying to get ahead of the market, and tremendous moves in single stock/cryptocurrency titles. As grim as it sounds, we believe these signs will grow more apparent in the coming weeks as the volatility is set to continue higher, sparking more risk-aversion and another leg down in the market. Our thesis comes from the premise that the FED will increase interest rates in November 2022, further crashing the market in order to beat high inflation. In our opinion, these macroeconomic factors, combined with technical ones, foreshadow a new low for Bitcoin in 2022 and a continuation lower in 2023. Additionally, the lack of liquidity reflected in low monthly volumes suggests Bitcoin is not gaining any interest among new investors, which is an obstacle for the trend to reverse; meanwhile, this lack of liquidity has been responsible for wild moves up and down in the past months. At the moment, we pay close attention to the resistance level at 20 381 USD, which is the 27th September 2022 high. For the short-term, it would be bullish if the price managed to break above this level and stay there. However, a failure of the price to hold above the resistance will suggest a return to the lower end of the range, in which Bitcoin has been trading for the past few weeks. Despite the short-term bullish potential in Bitcoin, we have no reason to backtrack on our bearish views. Accordingly, we stick to our price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. We will update our thoughts as time progresses. Illustration 1.01 Yesterday, we showed several signs of exhaustion accompanying the price rise and subsequent breakout above the resistance level. We said that the breakout would be bullish; however, it became quickly invalidated when the price fell back below the resistance level. That is yet another sign of exhaustion. Despite that, the short-term trend is neutral/slightly bullish; therefore, we will remain very cautious today and closely monitor the price action and volume levels. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is slightly bullish; however, it is showing signs of exhaustion already. MACD is neutral; if it breaks above the mid-point, it will be bullish. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish. The daily time frame is slightly bullish, with a very weak trend. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and particular levels of interest. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI is neutral. Stochastic is also neutral. MACD points to the upside but stays in the bearish zone. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish; but the trend grew substantially weaker over the past few weeks. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
56
Bitcoin - Committed to the bearish narrative Over the past few days, Bitcoin has continued to be choppy, oscillating mainly between 19 000 USD and 20 000 USD. Currently, it trades near the 19 200 USD price tag. We believe the recent volatile movements reflect rising anxiety among market participants. Additionally, lower troughs and lower peaks, constituted since 15th August 2022, suggest the downtrend continuation. Furthermore, fundamental factors weighing on risk appetite will continue to persist throughout 2022 and 2023, putting aside the bullish potential of the cryptocurrency market. In addition to fundamental factors, technical factors also support the bearish case for BTCUSD. Therefore, we have no reason to change our bearish bias and stick to our price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. We expect our price targets to be reached within Q4 2022. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. Again, we pay close attention to the sloping resistance; the breakout above it will be bullish, while the failure of the price to break above it will be bearish. Technical analysis - daily time frame MACD and RSI are neutral. Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
50
Bitcoin - BTCUSD to mark new lows by the end of Q4 2022Just hours after our last post, in which we warned about the unsustainability of the up move, Bitcoin erased all of its early gains and retraced below 19 000 USD. This development aligns with what we highlighted as a bear market behavior, characteristic of wild swings from one side to another and market participants trying to fish for a bottom. That and a looming decrease in corporate earnings and a slowdown in the global economy will further reinforce our narrative about the progression into the second stage of the bear market. As a result, we think the risk aversion will rise, causing more weakness in the stock and cryptocurrency markets over time. Indeed, we think what market participants have seen up until now, regarding erratic moves and elevated volatility, is just a pretext for what will unravel over the coming months. We believe we will see a dramatic increase in volatility, which will cause even more people to jump back and forth between bullish and bearish narratives. However, as we did for the past year, we plan to stay unshaken by the high volatility and focus on the market's primary trend. Therefore, we remain bearish and committed to our price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. Technical and fundamental factors support our view. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows simple support and resistance levels. To confirm our bearish thesis, we want to see the price break below the Support 1. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the weekly chart of BTCUSD and two SMAs in a bearish constellation. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
15
Bitcoin - BTCUSD eyes 2022 lowsDuring the weekend, the price of Bitcoin traded mainly flat. For that matter, we have no reason to change our bearish bias. Just like over the past months, fundamental factors will continue to slow down the global economy, resulting in the declining economic performance of the stock market and companies slashing their economic projections. In accordance with the Dow Theory, that will reflect the market transitioning from the 1st stage of the bear market into the 2nd stage. In our opinion, the cryptocurrency market will continue to drift to new lows, with many speculative coins going bust and never returning to the market. We believe the persistence of bullish sentiment does not signal a market capitulation. Quite the contrary, we think it perfectly illustrates the vicious nature of the bear market, with retail investors addicted to buying dips and subsequently causing volatile movements up and down. Because of that, we will continue to filter these movements and focus on the primary trend to the downside (as we do since November 2021). More details are described below in the text and the attached articles. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the hourly chart of BTCUSD. Two yellow arrows indicate bearish breakouts, which constitute new lows for Bitcoin since the end of the bear market rally. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the simple support and resistance levels for BTCUSD. If the price breaks below the immediate support level and stays there, it will further bolster the bearish case for Bitcoin. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
4
Ripple - "Buy the rumor, sell the fact"In our previous idea on Ripple, we stated that it was one of a few cryptocurrencies that failed to reach a new all-time high during the latest bull cycle. Additionally, we expressed our bearish views on it over the coming months, set price targets at 0.30 USD (medium-term) and 0.28 USD (long-term), and presented a conservative setup with two possible scenarios. Since then, the price of XRPUSD has shot to the upside through the short-term resistance, which is a bullish development we previously outlined. Typically, such price action would invalidate our price targets on the downside for the short-term price target. However, fundamental factors (increasing interest rates and economic tightening) driving the primary trend have not changed, which allows us to stick to our price targets. Indeed, the abrupt move accompanied news that came out regarding the legal case between RippleLab and the SEC. It took merely a few hours, and we are already noticing a wall of bullish posts forecasting the reversal of the primary trend and the beginning of a new bullish era. However, we have little faith in this thesis because of the slowing global economy and growing geopolitical problems coupled with risk aversion. We acknowledge that thin volume can lead to a higher price in the short term. However, we think the rally will not sustain in the medium and long term. Furthermore, we believe the recent price action is just a short-lived hype like in the case of other cryptocurrencies that already underwent breakouts to the upside (which were dampened in XRP) from a wide range (in July and August). As for the short-term, we do not know how much higher XRPUSD can go. However, we are already seeing several warning signs. Because of that, we will pay close attention to volume and price action. Other details are described below. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the conservative setup we showed on 8th September 2022. Since its introduction, the breakout to the upside took place, hitting a bullish trigger. Subsequently, the price ripped up more than 40%. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is overbought. MACD and Stochastic are bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the price action that followed since the introduction of our setup. Declining volume after the breakout serves as a warning sign, hinting at the evaporation of buyers after the steep climb in price. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are also bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bullish. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows a similar decline in volume on the hourly chart of XRPUSD (this time on Binance instead of Bitstamp). Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
28
Ethereum - Pump and dump, or just dump?Like in the case of Bitcoin, we are also bearish on Ethereum. We will pay close attention to it today as the FED is set to increase interest rates and worsen economic conditions. We expect such action to drag the stock market and cryptocurrencies lower over time. Though we do not rule out an initial bounce up in the price of ETHUSD after the FED decision; however, we do not expect it to last. Due to that, we have no reason to change our bearish bias. Accordingly, we stick to our price targets of 1000 USD and 900 USD. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the weekly chart of ETHUSD. It also portrays two simple moving averages, 20-week SMA and 50-week SMA. It can be observed how Ethereum naturally retraced toward its 20-week SMA (which acted as a correction of the downtrend), and now it deviates from it again. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of ETHUSD, two simple moving averages, and support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
54
Bitcoin - Expect more pain aheadUnsurprisingly, Bitcoin fell below 20 000 USD, confirming our bearish bias. During the week, we will be on high alert as the FED is poised to increase interest rates and worsen economic conditions (and potentially spark another massive selloff). Other fundamental and technical factors also make up for the bearish consensus. Therefore, we have no reason to change our view and stick to price targets of 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. White horizontal lines indicate simple support and resistance levels. The yellow arrow indicates the bearish breakout below the immediate support, followed by the bullish retracement. We want the price to stay below the immediate support level to confirm our bearish view further. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. The daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 The illustration above shows the increase in volume that accompanies the declining price. That is positive for the bearish scenario; ideally, we would like to see volume grow more. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. The weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
39
Bitcoin - CPI print kills the hypeToday's CPI print in the U.S. spooked the market, affecting Bitcoin, which dropped more than 4% within merely two minutes. The report of higher-than-expected inflation shattered market participants' last hopes for the FED pivot. Currently, the FED is expected to raise interest rates in the range between 75bps to 100bps during its September meeting. However, after this latest inflation print, there is a high likelihood of the FED proceeding with another significant rate hike in November. These developments only add to the already bearish fundamentals that signal a rough road ahead for Bitcoin. With a slowing economy, higher servicing of debt, and other geopolitical burdens, we think cryptocurrencies will copy the stock market on its route to new lows. The same view is also supported by technical factors and low volume, which point to the liquidity crisis rather than a trend change from bearish to bullish. Because of this conviction, we stick to our bearish outlook. Accordingly, our price targets are 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the 1-minute chart of BTCUSD and the sudden crash after the CPI print. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI reversed and now points to the downside, which is very bearish. Stochastic also turned bearish. MACD started to flatten. DM+ and DM- produce whipsaws. The daily time frame quickly turned from neutral/slightly bullish to very bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and the most recent technical developments. The failure of Bitcoin to stay above the immediate resistance is very bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are neutral. DM+ and DM- stay bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Illustration 1.03 The picture above shows simple support and resistance levels for BTCUSD. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
156
Bitcoin - The latest updateAfter yesterday's drop of more than 12%, we continue to maintain a bearish stance on Bitcoin. The latest price action confirmed our bearish thesis as BTCUSD failed to make a new high, and instead, it faltered back below the 20 000 USD price tag. Simultaneously, the CPI print spooked the market leading to a massive selloff in the equity. Previously, we stated that the selloff would eventually accelerate. That is currently under manifestation, and we think the upcoming FED meeting will worsen an already dire situation. Meanwhile, technical factors continue to flash warning signs and trouble ahead for the overall cryptocurrency market. Accordingly, we stick to our price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows the hourly chart of BTCUSD and its recent decline of more than 12%s. The nature of this decline is particularly bearish and further confirms our thesis. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. The daily time frame is extremely bearish. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the most recent developments on the daily chart of BTCUSD. To further confirm our bearish thesis, Bitcoin has to drift below the most recent low at 18 540 USD. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. The weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
20
Bitcoin - Debunking the mythDay after day, we tell ourselves that bullish market forecasts are getting increasingly ridiculous. Unfortunately, however, every bounce up in the market seems to produce more irrational thoughts among market participants. We often encounter statements about Bitcoin being headed to 100k USD, 200k USD, 500k USD, or even much higher. The same applies to other cryptocurrencies. Indeed, people have been writing us and predicting new all-time highs for Ethereum and Bitcoin, four-digit valuation for XRP, and other things we consider outright stupid in the current environment. However, how do these valuations hold in the bigger scheme of things? People making outlandish calls do not seem to bother about this question. Therefore, we decided to answer it today. Based upon the data from the World Federation of Exchanges (which encompasses all significant stock market exchanges with over 58 000 companies), the equity market capitalization stands at 122.94 trillion USD. The current market cap of all cryptocurrencies is slightly above 1 trillion USD; at its peak, the market cap stood at 3.009 trillion USD. The current supply of Bitcoin is about 19 147 400 units. Meanwhile, the supply for Ethereum is approximately 122 323 191 units, and for XRP, about 49 826 021 773 units. Now, let's put in perspective the current valuation and cryptocurrency supply. BTC - approximate units = 19 147 400 ETH - approximate units = 122 323 191 XRP - approximate units = 49 826 021 773 BTC - the (approximate) current market cap = 411 bn. USD ETH - the (approximate) current market cap = 214 bn. USD XRP - the (approximate) current market cap= 17.6 bn. USD Altogether, these three cryptocurrencies account for more than 50% of the (whole) cryptocurrency market cap. However, what would be the value of their market cap if predictions about sky-high valuations were due to become real? BTC at 100 000 USD = 19 147 400 x 100 000 = 1.91 trn. USD BTC at 200 000 USD = 19 147 400 x 200 000 = 3.82 trn. USD BTC at 500 000 USD = 19 147 400 x 500 000 = 9.57 trn. USD ETH at 10 000 USD = 122 323 191 x 10 000 = 1.22 trn. USD ETH at 20 000 USD = 122 323 191 x 20 000 = 2.44 trn. USD XRP at 100 USD = 49 826 021 773 x 100 = 4.98 trn. USD XRP at 1000 USD = 49 826 021 773 x 1000 = 49.8 trn. USD After the calculation, it is evident that at 500k USD for Bitcoin, the whole market cap would be higher by over 8 trillion USD (when taking into account just increase in BTC). That is about an 800% increase for the entire cryptocurrency market (not taking into account an increase of other 20 000 cryptocurrencies). With Ethereum at 10 000 USD, the market cap would grow by another 1 trillion USD, which is again not a tiny number; additionally, the 20 000 price tag would double that figure. Finally, in the case of XRP at 100 USD, the market cap (just for XRP) would be valued at 4.98 trillion USD (which is already multiple times higher than the current market cap of BTC). At 1000 USD, the XRP market cap would be approximately 49.8 trillion USD. It does not take much common sense to realize these valuations are immense, especially when compared to the global equity market capitalization based on the World Federation of Exchanges data. In our opinion, these and many similar predictions about cryptocurrencies reversing to the uptrend and continuing higher are doomed to fail. Our views are based on fundamental and technical factors described in previous and attached articles. Accordingly, we remain bearish on Bitcoin and stick to our price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. Illustration 1.01 The picture shows the total market cap of cryptocurrencies and its decline of 66% from ATH. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic are bullish. However, they are getting overvalued very quickly. MACD is neutral. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bullish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows simple support and resistance levels for BTCUSD. The breakout above the immediate resistance will bolster the bullish case for BTC in the short-term. However, we stick to our bearish outlook beyond that. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are neutral/slightly bullish. DM+ and DM- stay bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
95
Bitcoin - Breakout below 19 000 USD confirms our bearish thesisYesterday, Bitcoin dropped below the support level at 19 526 USD. Then later, the price continued below 19 000 USD, halting its movement at a low of 18 540 USD. These developments are negative for Bitcoin and further confirm the bearish thesis we laid out in our previous articles. At the same time, there was no significant change in fundamental or technical factors, allowing us to stick to our bearish outlook and price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. Although with mounting evidence of the global economy slowing down, we think the price of Bitcoin will drift far below our price targets. Indeed, we believe Bitcoin will test 10 000 USD in the coming months. Despite that, we would first want to see our price targets being hit. After that, we will reassess the situation and set new price targets. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the 5-minute chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates yesterday's quick price action that led to Bitcoin plunging below the 19 000 USD price tag. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame. Illustration 1.02 The chart above shows three bearish breakouts, which also confirm our bearish thesis. However, the most recent breakout was retraced; ideally, we want to see the price drop and stay below the immediate support/resistance. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates the spike in volume, which is another bearish development. Ideally, from here, we would like to see volume increase accompanying a declining price. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
40
Ethereum - Pump and dump on a horizonSeptember 2022 brings many exciting events for the stock and cryptocurrency markets alike. However, we will pay close attention mainly to two events in particular. The first event we will pay attention to is the “merge” with the soft deadline on the 19th of September 2022; the merge will see the current execution layer being combined with a new consensus layer. As a result, Ethereum will transit from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. That, in turn, will eliminate the need for energy-intensive mining and give Ethereum a competitive edge against other cryptocurrencies. While the transition is significant from an environmental and technological point of view, it is less significant from a trading perspective. It does not change the fact that the FED will continue to increase interest rates to battle inflation (which will subsequently weigh on the economy and lead to risk aversion). Additionally, the distribution of ETHW tokens (Ethereum on the old proof-of-work protocol) raises our concerns. Because of these “out of the thin air” tokens, we think there might be an initial increase in the price of Ethereum (especially before the merge). However, we expect a potential bounce to be temporary and newly created tokens to be dumped on the market together with Ethereum (after the merge). Our bearish view is also supported by technical factors, which show very low liquidity in the market. Simultaneously, several technical indicators point to the downside for ETHUSD. Because of that, we stick to our price target at 1 000 USD and 900 USD Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of ETHUSD. The green arrow indicates a price increase. The red arrow indicates a volume decrease. These developments, occurring simultaneously, often foreshadow a trend reversal (in this case, a trend of a lesser degree). Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD is neutral; however, if it breaks above 0 points, it will bolster the bullish case in the short term. DM+ and DM- perform whipsaws, while ADX contains a relatively low value. Overall, the daily time frame is mixed. Illustration 1.02 The image above displays the daily chart of ETHUSD and simple support/resistance levels. Ideally, we would like to see a breakout below the short-term support; that will bolster the bearish case for Ethereum. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and Stochastic are slightly bullish. MACD is neutral. DM+ and DM- stay bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is less bearish than a week ago. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows the weekly chart of ETHUSD and two moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates the natural retracement toward the 20-week SMA. Ideally, we would like to see the price stay below this average. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
21
LITECOIN -8/9/2022-• Symmetrical triangle on daily chart • Breakout could be in either direction • Target distance from breakout point is distance between highest and lowest point in the triangle • 30 in this case (69.86-39.86) • Triangle is shrinking so we are close to breakout • Scenario 1: bearish breakout around 50 +/-, target is 20 +/- • Scenario 2: bullish breakout around 60 +/-, target is 90 +/- Note: Ideally, volume tends to decrease as the triangle shrinks and get close to breakout. So I added a volume indicator below the chart to highlight this idea. Advice: It is recommended not to rush and place orders before getting clear confirmation of a successful breakout. Keep in mind that breakouts can sometimes be fake.
COINBASE:LTCUSD
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
2
Weekly Analysis BTC via Ichimoku by TheSocialCryptoClubHappy midweek, As usual, here is our analysis of the week looking at a glance at the daily chart of BINANCE:BTCUSDT using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator with traditional settings. We used in support other indicators that we developed and released Open Source, you can find them at the end of the analysis. Trend: Kumo has been consistently red for 12 days and expanding (about 6%). The Ichimoku pattern indicates a general downtrend with a sideways bias over the very long term. The Kijun Trend indicator continues to indicate looking for short positions. Heikin-Ashi: Heikin-Ashi confirmed the bearish price movement: almost always red candles since the top of the Kumo was touched. Supports and resistances: - 25000.00 by Fibonacci - 24600.00 Tenkan Weekly - 23400.00 Chikou cusp level or flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan - 22400.00-22600.00 Chikou cusp level or flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan - 20200.00 Chikou cusp level or flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan - 20000.00 psychological threshold - 19100.00-18900.00 level cusps Chikou or flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan - 17080.00level cusps Chikou or flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan - 12700.00from the waves of Hosoda - 11000.00-13000.00 level cusps Chikou or flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan For the various static price structures, you can refer to the chart where the structures identified by the flat moments of Tenkan, Kijun, Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B on different timeframes, also Chikou for the daily time frame, are plotted. Also, recall that the various Ichimoku lines serve as dynamic price structures: the Tenkan Sen (short term), the Kijun Sen (medium term) as well as the Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B (long term). Fibonacci: The Fibonacci levels on the Daily still show us a positive long-term sentiment and places the 0 to the upside on 75000.00. Price is moving away from the 1 level. Conclusion: Since the 25000.00 level was touched The situation has changed considerably and a clear downtrend is present. Hosoda waves indicate a downtrend target in the last ABC pattern found: 19252 (target reached), 18463.75, 18196.25, 17140. From a fundamental point of view, and in general markets, the situation is of general downtrend considering the FED's economic policy, the European energy crisis, and a slowdown in the Asian market. It is important to assess the close of the week and during the week on the following price structures: - Bullish/Lateral: 21800.00 - Bearish: 18100.00 Altcoin Cycle: For Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Cycle we can consider the weekly variation: - Total cryptocurrency market capital: Decreased - Dominance of BTC: Decreased. - Price of BTC: Decreased. - Alt cycle expectation: Stable. Thanks for your attention, happy to support the TradingView community. Indicators used: Analysis Tool Kijun Trend Indicator Ichimoku Support and Resistance Chikou Support and Resistance
by TheSocialCryptoClub
Ethereum - "Uber-bullish merge" narrative is nonsense In our previous article, we dismissed nonsense about the “uber” bullish effect of the Merge on Ethereum. However, we also stated that we would not rule out a temporary bounce in the price while expecting it to have little to no effect on the overall trend direction. Today, we again stick to this narrative and remain bearish on ETHUSD. We have no reason to change our bias as fundamental factors will continue to weigh on risk assets in the coming months. Additionally, technical indicators are worsening, which suggests more trouble ahead. Finally, as if it was not enough, a slowing global economy will lead to more risk aversion among assets like cryptocurrencies. Due to that, we maintain our price targets for ETHUSD at 1 000 USD and 900 USD. Though, we have to note that we are growing increasingly bearish on the pair and expect it to drift below our price targets over time. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the most recent developments on the daily chart of ETHUSD. Yellow arrows indicate three bearish breakouts and one bullish retracement. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. MACD is neutral. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of ETHUSD and two simple moving averages. Yellow arrows indicate bullish and bearish crossovers. The current constellation of moving averages is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, Stochastic, MACD, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
47
DXY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 07092022DXY RETURNS TO WHERE IT STARTED THE JOURNEY. 2000 TO 2023 MONTHLY LOOK. Is There a Buy-and-Hold Strategy in Forex? While currencies rarely rally against one another in the same sense that stocks do, there are viable reasons for experienced traders to engage in buy-and-hold strategies in forex trading. Traders who understand the long-term economic trends in one country versus another can buy-and-hold a currency for months or years in order to recognize profit from their trade. Buy-and-hold forex trading can also happen in conjunction with other investments, such as an American investor buying stock in a European company. Carry trade refers to a trader selling a currency that provides a low-interest return rate in order to purchase a currency that provides a high-interest return rate. Traders consider central bank policies, global sentiments, and trends in unemployment rates when adopting a long-term forex investment strategy. from www.investopedia.com NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
TVC:DXYLong
by volkancetin
2
Ethereum - Wake up call is ringing!We have been warning about the unsustainable rally in the cryptocurrency market for a while now. Indeed, for several weeks, we have been pointing out bearish developments on the chart of Ethereum and Bitcoin. However, only a week ago, we proposed the idea that the bear market rally reached its peak, and, as if it was not enough, we also said a 50% decline was looming over Ethereum. Today, we continue to stick to this assessment for Ethereum, which is mainly influenced by bearish fundamental factors like high-interest rates, quantitative tightening, and the prospect of a severe global recession. Due to the persistence of these factors, we have no reason to change our bearish medium-term and long-term views on the market. For the short-term, we are growing increasingly bearish on ETHUSD. In the past 24 hours, Ethereum fell 8%, breaking below the immediate support and reaching bearish territory. This development is particularly bearish as it coincides with the RSI breaking below 70 points and other technical indicators turning bearish. Accordingly, we stick to our price target of 1 000 USD. Illustration 1.01 In our previous idea, we said that ideally, we would like to see a drop in price accompanied by a build-up in volume to confirm our thesis; soon after that, a drop in price and a spike in volume occurred. Now, we would like to see more price decline and a further increase in volume. Ethereum is down approximately 15% from its recent peak. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- are due to perform bearish crossover, which will further bolster the bearish case for ETHUSD. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 The setup we introduced recently remains valid. Indeed, the bearish signal was triggered when the price broke below the immediate support. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI is bearish. MACD points to the upside but stays in the bearish zone. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
18