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Pound shows little reaction as BoE holds ratesThe British pound is showing limited movement on Thursday. GBP/USD is up 0.15%, trading at 1.2515 in the North American session at the time of writing. The Bank of England kept the cash rate unchanged at 5.25% for a sixth straight time in a widely expected move. The British pound dropped slightly after the announcement but then recovered. The breakdown of the vote by the nine members of the MPC was noteworthy, as two members voted for a 0.25% cut, with seven voting to hold rates. At the April meeting, the vote was eight members in favor of a hold and one voting to cut rates by 0.25%. The meeting minutes made reference to the split vote and also noted a “range of views” among MPC members over inflation risks. Governor Bailey still has a solid majority but if additional MPC members veer away from Bailey’s stance, it will complicate his job and could affect his credibility. The markets were hoping that the BoE would use today’s meeting to signal a rate cut in June, much in the way that the European Central Bank essentially confirmed a June rate cut at its April meeting. Bailey said that “a change in the bank rate in June has neither been ruled out or a fait accompli”. Bailey also stated that the BOE could start to cut before the Federal Reserve, which has delayed plans to lower rates due to rising inflation in the US. The BoE would prefer to have the Fed move first, otherwise a BoE rate cut will hurt the British pound which could result in higher inflation. The Fed has put the brakes on plans to lower rates as inflation as proved stickier than expected. Fed members have said that monetary policy needs to remain restrictive and Boston Fed president Susan Collins said on Wednesday that inflation will take more time to fall than expected and added “there is no pre-set path for policy”. The Fed has been pouring cold water on rate cut expectations although the markets still expect two rate cuts before the end of the year. GBP/USD dropped below support at 1.2468 and put pressure on support at 1.2440 1.2497 and 1.2525 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Euro can’t find its footing after ECB pauseThe euro continues to stumble and is down for a fourth straight day. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0653, down 0.67%. The euro has fallen 1.7% this week as the US dollar continues to flex its muscles against the major currencies. The European Central Bank maintained the deposit rate at 4% for a fifth straight time on Thursday, as expected. Interest rates remain at record levels but Lagarde & Co. provided fresh hints that policy makers are looking to lower rates at the June meeting. The economic background appears favorable for a rate cut. Eurozone inflation has dropped to 2.4%, close to the 2% target and the economy is barely growing. ECB members, including those with more hawkish views, have been hinting at a June rate cut. The ECB statement echoed this view, saying if its confidence increases that inflation is moving towards the target “in a sustained manner”, then a rate cut would be appropriate. At her press conference, ECB President Lagarde noted that several members had voted in favor of a rate cut on Thursday. Lagarde added that the ECB could make a cut even if inflation remained above 2%, if the ECB was confident that inflation was moving in the right direction. It’s a very different story in the US, where the Federal Reserve is dealing with a surprisingly strong US economy. March nonfarm payrolls crushed expectations and US inflation climbed to 3.5%, up from 3.2% and above the forecast of 3.4%. Fed members are sounding hawkish and the markets have slashed rate cut expectations. After the hot US inflation report, Boston Fed President Collins said that the Fed may need to cut rates less than previously expected and New York Fed President Williams said there was “no clear need to adjust policy in the very near term”. The markets have lowered the odds of a June cut to just 24%, compared to 54% a week ago. A September cut was priced in at 91% a week ago but that has dropped to 72%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0651. Below, there is support at 1.0597 1.0749 and 1.0813 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
USD/JPY breaks above 146, Tokyo Core CPI dips to 2.8%USD/JPY has posted small gains on Friday, enough to push above the symbolic 146 line. On the data calendar, Tokyo Core CPI dipped lower and Fed Chair Powell addresses the Jackson Hole Symposium later today. Japan released the Tokyo Core CPI earlier today. This is the first inflation release of the month, making it a key event. In August, Tokyo Core CPI rose 2.8% y/y, down from 3.0% in July and just under the consensus estimate of 2.9%. Despite the drop in inflation, the indicator has remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for some fifteen months. Earlier in the month, the so-called "core-core index", which excludes fresh food and energy, remained at 4.0%. This points to broad inflationary pressure and raises questions about the BoJ's insistence that inflation is transient. The BoJ has said it will not exit its ultra-loose monetary policy until wage growth rises enough to keep inflation sustainable around 2%. Still, the markets have been burned before by the BoJ making unexpected moves and are on guard for the BoJ tightening policy, especially with the yen at very low levels. The markets are keeping a close eye on the Jackson Hole symposium, with Fed Chair Powell and BoJ Governor Ueda both attending. Powell delivers a key speech on Friday and Ueda will participate in a panel discussion on Saturday. If either one provides insights into future rate policy, it could mean some volatility from USD/JPY on Monday. What does the Fed have planned? That depends on which Fed member is addressing the media. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on Thursday that he didn't see a need to raise rates further, absent any unexpectedly poor data, but added that the Fed wouldn't be lowering rates anytime soon.  However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said that rate increases might still be necessary. The Fed is likely to pause at the September meeting, but what happens after that is unclear. USD/JPY is facing resistance at 146.41, followed by 147.44 There is support at 145.54 and 144.51
by OANDA