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Colombia

Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 42 - USDCOP - (14th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing USDCOP, starting from the 3-Month chart. If you want to learn more, check out my TradingView profile.
by Road_2_Funded
Ecopetrol runs for dividend dateDisconting the bad beguining for the colombian market caused for the present President of Colombia, I think in this moment de main company of the country, "Ecopetrol" $EC is supporting in the short term by tecnical and fundamental issues. Fundamental view is product of the great result of 2022 FY and its consecuen big dividend, around 30% at current price. By the technical side, the today close price permits conclude that 61,8% fibonacci retracement (last bull leg) is supporting the idea for bullish future that maybe will go to the gap´s area of 13.55 that overlaps the 200 daily MA. Other items are the horizontal resisitnce area 10.60 (red line) and the proyection of an equal leg regard previus bullish swing(white arrow). RSI near 50 and MACD at the positive side and going up... Target price Min. 13.55 Max. 14.40
NYSE:ECLong
by MOAM
It's the 1990s in LatinmericaIt's all been said and done! Finish him! Latinamerica is going back to the 80s while the developed world heads to the moon. “They live different kinds of lives outside of the city” For a while, everything was turned into entertainment and people did not want to bother themselves with difficult issues. It was only at the last minute that we found out how to use all these new technologies for better purposes than just killing time. My biggest concern is all the people who do not live in our city. Those we lost on the way. Those who decided that it became too much, all this technology. Those who felt obsolete and useless when robots and AI took over big parts of our jobs. Those who got upset with the political system and turned against it. They live different kind of lives outside of the city. Some have formed little self-supplying communities. Others just stayed in the empty and abandoned houses in small 19th century villages.
Short
by axelrodd
2
Colombia slowly but surely on the road to hyperinflationThe inherent weaknesses produced by the pandemic in Latin America have produced the propitious scenario for a new hyperinflation to take place in the region, in this case in Colombia. This nation that around its history and its abundance of natural resources has been subjected to the old history of the Dutch disease. in such a way that its industrial and technological development sectors have always been depressed. which logically implies that there is a brain drain and a growing commercial imbalance with respect to the United States and now China. The rulers who are nothing more than a kleptotractic class, who since the beginning of the nation has been bolted to power, have never offered a structural change, also because the legal and structural incentives of the economy prevent political and social change, Consequently, the economic deterioration has been associated with an internal enemy during the more than 50 years of civil conflict and lately the blame has been placed on the immigration of Venezuelans and on Venezuela itself (external enemy). All these representations already mentioned have implied for the nation a walking on stakes, which cannot produce more than a process of hyperinflation in the medium term. It should be noted that the country's international gold reserves have been depressed by 60% during the pandemic and that the state also assumed new loans that increased the external debt with respect to GDP from 49.5% in 2019 to 54.8% according to the latest report, which implies that in less than 18 months it has increased by a factor of 10.71%. This aforementioned scenario, logically implies that there are some accused systemic risks within the Colombian economy. It is worth mentioning that the hydrocarbon exploitation and tourism sectors have been depressed for almost a year due to the collapses in the price of crude oil and a significant decrease in tourism due to the pandemic, since these are the most fluid sources of international foreign exchange for the country. Colombia must take a more serious stance in order to get out of this quagmire, it is not useful for foreign investment or for investor confidence that every two by three they are reformulating trade rules and bureaucracy, the Colombian people will end up going through the gillotine to their rulers sooner or later when there is a depression in the cost of living and a significant decrease in purchasing power as projected in this analysis. I will finish by explaining the technical part, what we observe in a projection in an equidistant channel; In it, we observe 3 elements, a temporary one that is based on tracing the most significant points of change in the trend or strong movements, in order to postulate a temporary projection of when the next inflationary peak will occur, this is close to the end of 2024, but is can produce sooner. On the other hand, the price is in the upper part of the channel, the only way to reverse this scenario is for the price to correct strongly and touch the lower part of the channel or break it, but it seems that this will not happen. rather it seems that it will look for the technical level of the 3.61 of fibonacci. in less than 3 years. Therefore, it is a bad time to make medium-term investments in the country. I will end by observing that the country can get out of this scenario, if there is a structural change in the long and medium term in the ways in which the country's economy produces and if the government decides to reduce externalities and make more territorial presence in the country. On the other hand, it is important to have simplified fiscal rules for internal and external investment, under conditions that promote competition between both types of investment, it could be a requirement that such investment must be by mixed law and promote the development and industrialization of the field. ; However, a change in the internal dynamics of drug trafficking and the use of public spending must be fostered. since public spending encourages social immobility, due to the large number of subsidies. To clarify whether the private sector is encouraged with mixed investment (this is understood as foreign and internal investment, the latter understood as state and private), macroeconomic solutions will be given in the medium term. This will imply a flow of capital and a decrease in structural unemployment, since official data say that there is much less unemployment than in reality, since informality is arbitrarily measured within this standard. español las debilidades inherentes producidas por la pandemia en latinoamerica, han producido el escenario propicio para que se produzca una nueva hiperinflacion en la region, en este caso en colombia. esta nacion que alrededor de su historia y por su abundancia de recursos naturales a estado sometida a la vieja historia de la enfermedad holandesa. de tal manera que sus sectores industriales y de desarrollo tecnologico siempre han estado deprimidos. lo que implica de un modo logico que exista una fuga de cerebros y un desbalance comercial creciente respecto a estados unidos y ahora china. los gobernantes que no son mas que una clase cleptotractica, que desde los inicios de la nacion ha estado atornillada al poder, nunca han ofrecido un cambio estructural, tambien debido a que los incentivos legales y estructurales de la economia impiden un cambio politico y social, en conseuencia, el deterioro economico ha estado asociado a un enemigo interno durante los masd de 50 años de conflicto civil y ultimamente se le achaca la culpa a la inmigracion de venezolanos y ala propia venezuela(enemigo externo). todas estas representaciones ya mencionadas, han implicado para la nacion un caminar sobre estacas, que no puede producir mas que un proceso de hiperinflacion a medio plazo. cabe recalcar que las reservas de oro internacionales del pais se han deprimido en un 60% durante la pandemia y que ademas el estado asumio nuevos prestamos que incrementaron la deuda externa con respecto al pib del 49.5% en 2019 a 54.8% segun el ultimo reporte, lo que implica que en menos de 18 meses se ha aumentado en un factor del 10.71%. este escenario mencionado anteriormente, implica de un modo logico que exista unos riesgos sistemicos acusados, en el seno de la economia colombiana. cabe mencionar que los sectores de la explotacion de hidrocarburos y turismo se han deprimido por casi un año debido a los desplomes en el precio del crudo y una disminucion significativa del turismo debido a la pandemia, pues estas son las fuentes mas fluidas de divisas internacionales para el pais. colombia debe asumir una postura mas seria para poder salir de este atolladero, no sirve para la inversion extrajera ni para la confianza del inversor que cada dos por tres esten reformulando las reglas comerciales y la burocracia, el pueblo colombiano terminara pasando por la gillotina a sus gobernantes tarde o temprano cuando se produzca una depresion del costo de vida y una disminucion significativa del poder adquisitivo como la proyectada en este analisis. terminare explicando la parte tecnica, lo que observamos en una proyeccion en un canal equidistante; en la observamos 3 elementos uno temporal que se basa en trazar los puntos mas significativos de cambio de la tendencia o movimientos fuertes, para asi postular una proyeccion temporal de cuando se dara el siguiente pico inflacionario, este esta cerca de finales del 2024, pero se puede producir antes. por otra parte, el precio se encuentra en la parte superior del canal, el unico modo de revertir este escenario es que el precio corrija con fuerza y toque la parte mas inferior del canal o lo rompa, pero parece que no va ocurrir esto. mas bien parece que buscara el nivel tecnico del 3.61 de fibonacci. en menos de 3 años. por lo cual es mal momento para realizar inversiones a medio plazo en el pais. terminare por observar que el pais puede salir de este escenario, si existe un cambio estructural a largo y medio plazo en los modos en que la economia del pais produce y si el gobierno decide reducir las externalidades y hacer mas presencia territorial en el pais. por otra parte, es importante tener unas reglas fiscales simplificadas para la inversion interna y externa, en condiciones que propicien una competencia entre ambos tipos de inversion, podria ser un requisito que dicha inversion deba ser por ley mixta y propiciar el desarrollo e industrializacion del campo; sin embargo, debe propiciarse un cambio en las dinamicas internas sobre el narcotrafico y el uso del gasto publico. pues el gasto publico propicia una inmovilidad social, debido a la gran cantidad de subsidios. para aclarar si se incentiva el sector privado con inversion mixta(esto entendido como inversion extrajera y interna esta ultima entendida como estatal y privada), las soluciones macroeconomicas se daran en el medio plazo. lo que implicara un flujo e capitales y disminucion del desempleo estructural, puesto que los datos oficiales dicen que existe un desempleo mucho menor que el que en realidad existe, ya que se mide arbitrariamente la informalidad dentro de este estandar.
Long
by TrumpMakeBitcoinGreatAgain
7
Buy $EC - NRPicks 28 MarEcopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated oil and gas company. The company operates through Exploration and Production; Transportation and Logistics; refining, petrochemical and biofuel segments. It is engaged in the exploration, production and sale of oil and gas. It also transports and distributes hydrocarbons and by-products. An oil giant in Colombia that despite a decline in its income and profits during 2020, is estimated to increase its profits from 228% by 2021 as the global economy is re-opened. $EC has just announced its plan to achieve zero carbon emissions by 2050, reducing direct and indirect emissions from energy purchases by 25%, and reducing total emissions associated with the value chain by 50%. - Revenue 14B - EBITDA 2020 4.54B - P/S 1.69 - Dividend Yield 7.01% Technical: - Uptrend - Potential focus on the Energy sector - Average RSI levels - Price 10% above MA50 - Possible Breakout at $14
NYSE:ECLong
by NewroadTrader
Buying Colombia equity here. $ICOL Colombia is a high-beta EM country running a twin-deficit. These exposures turned bullish in November when the dollar started falling more precipitously, and the global risk backdrop improved. Dollar weakness is good for commodity exporting EM's, who price commodities in dollars. Moreover, Colombia provides significant beta to Oil prices, which are evidently bullish at the current time. The chart above shows ICOL overlaid with USDCOP (inverted.) We believe it is worth starting a SMALL position in Colombia here, playing a reversal to the top of the daily Bollinger band.
ILong
by MT-Macro
COP risk premium low in EM space=> Here we are tracking a break to the upside in USDCOP with a target of 3223 => This flow is trading the recent underperformance in Columbia and playing it against USD strength via inflation and bond to equity flows. => This should be a quick and sharp move with low political risk in Columbia and upside in Oil prices being capped for now.(edited) => If risk rises globally we see COP getting hammered and experiencing real pain with the knife being stuck in because of the low carry and less hawkish BanRep(edited) => Good luck to those few who are trading this cross
Long
by ridethepig