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Comdolls

GBPCAD Looking at GBP to fall in regards to Cad this has been the year for commodity currencies and though cad has been the weakest of the com dolls yet when paired with GBP it has a been more stable, with GBP on going turmoil their currency has in a whipsaw motion with sudden burst of vol. Near the price range labeled expensive we have seen prices fail at this confluence area of recent highs, 1SD and the lower half of 250 pip quadrant we remain in a side ways market with 1.70 being fair value and 1.68 being cheap for this pair. We have seen 1.70 become an accumulation zone though one price leaves these zones price has rebounded with a weaker drive each time, this is followed by lower highs on the yellow short term rate of change and on price. Price has stayed around the long term white ROC line longer than usual if this continues we should see the bears take control of this pair. Looking at the IV rank indicator at the bottom we have seen IV rank steadily increase of the last few days though I have labeled it a sell at the moment it must cross 20-25 for this sell to be confirmed . Over all I am looking to take this pair from current levels to levels considered cheap . At the time of writing this YOY GBP is up 3.2 percent and cad is down 0.18%
Short
by RobinhoodFX
Will they be another recovery inbound Com dolls currenciesOver the past year we have seen ComDoll currencies have seen massive gain's over the last 6 months as we have seen the price of goods based on the US dollars go up as oil has been one of the only com's that have gone nowhere near flat. Recently, we have seen the Core Commodity Index stall out leading to smaller volatility in the face of a possible realization of a recovery during the summer of 2020. With the actualization of Covid-19 resurgence and lock downs whats the outlook in terms of commodity currencies? I would like to believe that looking at how the Core Commodity Index and USD will give us hits on where the ComDolls go. At the moment Oct 1 2020 , over the last 4 trading days we have seen the dollar drop 1.18% and the CCI level out at a 2 month low. Over the next few weeks the blow that was received to markets around the world in Feb wont be seen instead, I believe that we will see a 2nd " Recover stage" like what was seen after the CB announced all the tools they had to sstableize the economy. Well, we have come to the same issues and point that we were in 10 months ago with shutdowns crippling the economy the only difference is we know what to expect from the CB whatever they did in the past + more hence all the talk about a +2% inflation rate. What does that mean Currencies will get cheap across the world and real thing will become more expensive. As consumer currencies are sold to ever low levels. Hence my out look on the CCI is bullish and intern I am bullish currencies that are tied to base goods.
TVC:TRJEFFCRBLong
by RobinhoodFX
AUDJPY Possible Bearish Continuation Price floating below the long period SMA 200 (red) and trading under the weekly and daily pivot point already indicting bearish sentiment for this pair. Comdolls aren't doing well and the risk bets are not good so far which we can see from the price action in most of comdolls related pairs like au,uc,nu. Yen and dollar ruling over the market this week so far which let me think that this pair might drop further lower if market mode are in risk off.
Short
by jessi061
2
AUDCAD Possible Bilateral Chart Pattern: Ascending TriangleThis type of triangle chart pattern occurs when there are a resistance level and a slope of higher lows. What happens during this time is that there is a certain level that the buyers cannot seem to exceed. However, they are gradually starting to push the price up as evidenced by the higher lows. If you think bulls can take the ball away up to the horizontal line (resistance of ascending triangle) winning against bear and if you sentimentally think buyers can further dominate over sellers and price for this major pair should have more room upward then this idea might be for you. Loonie is still in pressure no matter lately how it dragging dollar (king) lower after some fundamental reason behind the state huge moolah printing of $2 trillion sentiments shifted crazy but we clearly know still oil haven't shown any good result. I reckon sentiment wise Aussie standing at such a point where it may even drag lower greenback in future days more then loonie. Overall I mean Aussie may combat in intensive strength against loonie in the coming weeks or month which let me think about this trade plan assuming there could be a price action way up to that resistance line of ascending triangle at least.
Long
by jessi061
3
USDCAD Weak Bear!Kinda feels like the bear has no much strength to even drag this pair further deeper. We have seen good gains on the comdolls from the beginning day of the week. Equity market did raise well and mostly TVC:DJI but talking back to comdolls at the moment bearish are weakening. Feels like there could be more probabilities for upside rather than the downside as long as this contagious virus doesn't stop pressurizing the world creating a further financial crisis that will not be ok thing for a currency like a loonie.
Long
by jessi061
5
AUDJPY Probabilities Price DirectionThis is an easy game to know how the global pandemic isn't settled yet and knowing how all big central banks honchos cooperated together to fight against this pandemic by deciding to lower OCR rates equally to combat against the corona virus. State & Europe are new continents who are for now struggling and combating strongly against this pandemic. I hope they win this battle soon but for now, commodities are hampered badly it seems a pity moment to even know how badly supply chain distortion has ruin commodities overall. Comdolls have very fewer probabilities at this hard period of time to even think that they may rise back. They need some pure remedy like " vaccine development " good reports to bring back optimistic. The move upward may only be some correction or retracement on price but it will be hard to think if it is an overall reversal in trend. We all know oil has been the most interesting commodity lately and knowing how it heavily plunged due to the pandemic case so I have not much good faith over comdolls bullish sentiment at least for now. One interesting thing which I would like to talk about is how New Zeland trying to combat strongly lately knowing how it cuts the rate below RBA (which was emergency cut in the weekend, Sunday) seeing that RBA has still room, for now, to get equal to its neighboring country which probably is a case market participant may price in lower for further remaining rooms for cuts (still 0.25 bp room left comparing to other). And lastly, how could I close my idea without mentioning our China which plays the main role over this global pandemic case. If you knew the more china in hurt or the escalation of spreading the virus rate and death counts then remember it will equally hurt Australia and Newzealand businesses as well so keep in that mind. Be sensitive over global risk news updates. This is all some beyond technical analysis thoughts from my side to this pair and if you find this idea valuable don't forget to support me with providing a thumps up! Peace :)
Short
by jessi061
3
EURNZD Bearish ToneI am feeling these pairs have some room lower to retracement watching over the sentiment. Bulls are getting exhausted aren't doing fine with upbeat and watching over the rising trendline and Fibonacci retracement level I assume there may have some pullback in this pair even if it won't be an overall reversal. Ya and hope you guys knew BOE just cut the rate by 50bp so be careful about the pound pairs and I also heard morning Chinese President Xi Jinping flew to the central city of Wuhan for a surprise visit, his first trip to the center of the epidemic since the health crisis erupted. His arrival in the virus-stricken city, which was locked down about a month-and-a-half ago, was a sign that conditions have improved so much that authorities deemed it safe for the country’s top leader to visit.
Short
by jessi061
1