9.5 Gold short-term operation strategy1: US debt. Since 2022, out of concern about US debt, central banks around the world have chosen to increase their gold holdings to balance the structure of foreign exchange reserves. In the past two years, the amount of gold purchased has doubled, and the scale is still expanding.
2: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates. After the interest rate cut, more US dollar liquidity will be provided to the market, and more funds will return to the gold market, which has never happened in the rise of gold in the past two years.
3: Risk hedging. As the best risk hedging tool, gold will increase significantly in asset allocation during the economic downturn. China is the largest consumer of gold. For every 10% drop in gold prices, China's gold demand will increase by 16%. Once gold falls sharply in September, the central bank may return to the market with a large number of orders.
Regarding the theory of US economic recession, there have been whistleblowers one after another since August. The plunge in global stock markets on August 2 was Sam's Law, and the plunge in the Nikkei 225 index on Tuesday this week, and the decline in gold/crude oil all triggered the recession indicator of US economist Rosenberg.
At this stage, the recession of the US economy is still in the imagination stage. The US August employment report will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on September 6. The market is overreacting to the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July. Once the unemployment rate rises in August, it may trigger the reduction of arbitrage trading funds and cause market stampede.
Before that, the US will release the August ADP employment data today. The previous value was 125,000, and the market estimated 145,000. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 31 will be announced at 20:30. The previous value was 231,000, which was not much different from the estimated 230,000.
This is just the appetizer. The hard dish is the US non-farm employment data on Friday. Last month, the global market avalanche was triggered by the non-farm data. The sharp decline in non-farm data last month should be bullish for gold, but the market trend suddenly turned from the expected Fed rate cut to the US economic recession, causing indiscriminate panic selling. This time everyone's eyes are on the non-farm data.
Today, we will pay more attention to the changes in the technical structure. The data only serves as a guide. Emotions will be reflected in the price in advance. On Wednesday, the gold price accelerated its decline in the European session, falling from a low of $2495 to $2471, a drop of nearly $25, but the continuity was extremely poor. The US session recovered and returned to the $2500 line.
In recent times, the gold price has been on a roller coaster ride, and basically there is little continuity. After a sharp drop, there is a sharp rise, and after a sharp rise, there is a sharp drop. This morning, the price was at $2498. After the rebound in the US session last night, it closed above the support point of 2491. The upper pressure is still collectively at $2507. The break of this position will temporarily end this round of small-scale adjustment.
From the 1-hour structure, the price rebounded after two dips to the 2470 USD line, forming a staged double bottom. There are two positions above that are of particular interest. One is the 2500 USD line with the pressure of 2507 USD as the boundary, that is, to hold 2506-07 and continue the weak shock. The support below is 2491. Only when it is lost here can it be opened for the second time.
In addition, if the rebound is strong and breaks through 2507 USD, the rebound will further continue to the range of 2512-14. The rebound here should pay attention to the decline after the rapid pullback. Don't chase the market in the past few days. If you see a rise, you will have more callbacks. If you see a fall, you will often be shorted. If you see a rise, you will look for pressure positions to go short. If you see a fall, you will look for support positions to go long. Don't treat the box shock as a unilateral one.
Therefore, my idea for gold today is to continue to look for a decline with 2507 Qingyuan as the pressure. First, pay attention to 2492 below, followed by 2485 USD and 2485 USD. The formation of this unilateral market will be postponed to the non-agricultural data tomorrow night or the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on September 17. Before that, it will mainly be a roller coaster wash.
