EURNZD analyzes currency pairs using a mix of fundamental and technical analysis, supplemented with some sentiment indicators such as the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), external and endogenous factors (EXO and ENDO), and seasonal trends. Let’s break down the analysis: 1. Fundamental Analysis LEI, EXO, ENDO: All are...
We continued to see that bull strength throughout the week. If the daily timeframe trend stays true, we will see price break the all-time high eventually but it is not resistance free rallying. We just tapped into a supply zone that caused a meltdown of 5%. Therefore, this psychological level will probably see some fighting between bulls and bears before it is...
Essential and robust reasons for a bullish move: 1-RATE CUTS are coming soon! Everyone knows it, but big players want you to be a SELLER! ( THEY BUY). 2. The COT date confirms this! (Commercials are BUYERS! While non-commercials (poor trapped traders) are sellers). 3. Many strong support lines, levels, and patterns push the price up. ( Head and shoulder, two...
Commercials are max short and both Large & Small speculators are long. Today looks like a reversal day. Everyone is expecting $100+ www.bloomberg.com "Oil surged to a 10-month high — extending a powerful rally that may rekindle inflation — as supply cuts from OPEC+ tightened the market, with Saudi Arabia’s energy minister shying away from any change in...
Not too long ago, Gasoline prices rattled American car drivers with a price tag of USD 5 a gallon. And now, much to their delight, gasoline prices have eased to USD 3.50 a gallon. Slump in crude prices which influences gasoline has plunged by one-third over the last twelve months. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate ("WTI") trades around USD 70. Rattled US...
The CFTC has failed since 24th January to publish COT data. “Following the ION cyber-related incident, reporting firms are continuing to experience some issues submitting timely and accurate data to the CFTC. As a result, the weekly Commitments of Traders (CoT) report that normally would have been published on Friday, February 17, will be postponed." ...
Famous American Author Alfred Paul Ries once said, “Good things happen when you narrow your focus”. Global macro conditions and monetary environment could make that quote apt for US equity market investing too. Given the backdrop of price behavior, this case study argues that a spread trade comprising of Long Dow Jones Index and short S&P 500 index provides a...
CME Overview: Bitcoin and crypto, in general, have had a major run starting most significantly since the start of the new year. BTC1! Is the Bitcoin Chicago Merchantile Exchange Futures trading and comprises institutional trading of Bitcoin. The report that comes out on Fridays shows the actions that occurred by position from the previous Tuesday to the Tuesday...
COT Data is signaling that Wheat Futures ( CBOT:ZW1! ) are ready to pop after a few months of declines and chop As it currently stands, this is the shortest the Large Speculators have been on Wheat since 2020 where it bottomed at 589'4 to rally all the way as high as 1422'0. By no means do I expect a similar rally to ensure, but this does illustrate how oversold...
COT Data is pointing to the Euro ( CME:6E1! ) to continue its fall after seen a brief rally For the last couple months, the large speculators have been accumulating so much Euro that is is becoming over-crowded (See the green line in the NET COT FO graph on the weekly chart). A small catalyst could send this currency back into a downward spiral, fueled by the...
Gold has fallen below the 50-month MA (thick blue), 200-month MA (red), and is below all of the major monthly, weekly, and daily moving averages. It’s in a well-established downtrend channel after a major double top breakdown with a retest. The green line pointed to by the green arrow was a potential major uptrend line which was broken and retested. The next...
Leveraged Funds, Asset Managers and Non commercial are pushing the market to the downside. Keep your stops tight things would get real ugly in a blip. Don't hold long positions. Look at the COT report here:
COT Data is pointing to Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! or AMEX:USO ) being primed to pop after it's seasonal downturn This is a great example where money management is key as well as not blindly using the COT data as the sole reason for entry. Personally, I have a proprietary daily chart indicator I use to enter trades where COT data is giving signals. Crude Oil has...
COT data is signaling a great buy opportunity in CME_MINI:ES1! despite all the talks of this "bear rally" peaking and a coming recession The COT data has had us in this trade for the last couple months - just 1 SPY Call profited over $2,000. Personally, I took profits last week in accordance to my trading system. However, with the COT data still pointing...
This is a great example of how to trade the COT Index and Net positioning - Commercials for crude oil are almost always net short (Think of all the big oil companies hedging their product) but in this instance, they are less net-long than they have been in quite some time (Not since November 2016). Look on the daily chart for an entry - be patient - remember your...
CBOT:ZW1! A bit of a unique chart setup here - typically I trade based solely on the max positioning of the commercials (See below for an explanation of what that means). However, I will occasionally look for a buy when the Net positioning of commercials has accelerated recently (Indicated by black bars in the COT indicator at bottom of the chart). For this...
Great time to buy /ES or SPY as commercials are net long at extreme levels
Going over the CME Gap that exists above us as well as the current Price Action. BTC failing it's swing was a great short after we short squeezed to the level. Swings, S/Rs, and Demand Zones are being respected perfectly. Scalping in this zone don't do anything except look for mechanical failures and retests/gains. Low liquidity expected. Lose or gain the...