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GBPCHF Long OpportunityHopefully like last week, I won't make any impulsive entry. COT report shows 28% increase in CHF shorts while GBP being predominantly strong for months. MACD (Daily) also shows very weak bearish move, usually, after a weak bearish/bullish move, even a small push results in good movement to the opposite side. Again, nothing is confirmed and I might be 200% wrong but it's worth trying this one. Once, price reaches 50%, I will move to lower time frame for entry opportunity.
Long
by TB_M
EURNZD-4H-BULLISH CONTINUATION OF TRENDEURNZD analyzes currency pairs using a mix of fundamental and technical analysis, supplemented with some sentiment indicators such as the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), external and endogenous factors (EXO and ENDO), and seasonal trends. Let’s break down the analysis: 1. Fundamental Analysis LEI, EXO, ENDO: All are improving, which suggests strengthening fundamentals potentially for the EUR against the NZD. The overall trend of improvement in these indicators supports a bullish fundamental outlook for the EUR relative to the NZD. SCORECARD 3:(COMBINATION OF FUNDAMENTALS SCORE) Shows a mix of bullish and bearish sentiment but leans bullish in the final score. 2. Sentiment COT-FILP: This sentiment indicator leans towards bearish, as non-commercial long positions are increasing and short are decreasing. This suggests that traders, perhaps the larger speculative ones, are entirely convinced of the bullish scenario or are positioning long. 3. Seasonal: Indicates a typical pattern of an initial retracement in the first week followed by bullish sentiment. This aligns with some natural ebb and flow seen in currency pairs due to cyclical economic factors. 4. Technical Analysis Trend: Bullish, suggesting that recent movements support a continuation of upward momentum for EURNZD. Diversions: These are in sync, which likely means there is an upward momentum. Continuation and Reversal Patterns: You can noted a bullish continuation pattern and no significant reversal patterns, which typically suggests that the current trend (upward, in this case) is likely to continue. Overall Bias Despite some bearish sentiment from the COT report and mixed signals of SCORECARD 3, the fundamental improvements and supportive technical patterns lead to a predominantly bullish final score and overall bias. Interpretation and Trading Strategy Given the bullish fundamentals, supportive technical patterns, and despite some bearish sentiment signals, the recommended position seems to be leaning towards a bullish stance on the EURNZD. However, it would be prudent to consider risk management strategies, given the mixed sentiment signals: Entry Point: Look for temporary retracements on daily fvg and 50% fib retracement as potential entry points, especially in the first week if the seasonal pattern holds. Stop-Loss: Set stop-loss orders below key technical levels to protect against unforeseen reversals, particularly since the COT and FUNDAMENTAL SCORECARD show some bearish sentiment. Take-Profit: Establish profit targets at technically and fundamentally significant levels, considering both recent highs and any resistance levels identified by your technical analysis. As always, keep monitoring the market for any changes in fundamentals and sentiment that could affect the validity of this analysis.
Long
by AamirZahirali
XAUUSD │GOLD BULLS OR BEARS WHO WILL WIN? We continued to see that bull strength throughout the week. If the daily timeframe trend stays true, we will see price break the all-time high eventually but it is not resistance free rallying. We just tapped into a supply zone that caused a meltdown of 5%. Therefore, this psychological level will probably see some fighting between bulls and bears before it is broken. However, keep in the back of your mind that the four-hour timeframe is still bullish, just because we tapping into that strong zone doesn’t necessarily mean sell off, we will look to trade the pullback but will not assume a reversal until a break of four hour strong lows. The 15 minute timeframe is still bullish I have yet to see a change of character but the candles printing are indicative of a pullback so we will monitor to see if prices indicates whether it wants to reverse or if it is just correcting before the next leg up. The 5-minute timeframe is also still bullish but is printing lower highs while maintaining the high low, which is also indicative of a correction. I will need to see a break of structure lows to consider trading the pullback. Final Thoughts The big boys are net short on GOLD according to the COT data but a combined non-reportable, non-commercial and commercial are leaning towards bulls. However, as I always say, the trend is your friend and until I see my long-term timeframe structure violated I am assuming the market is just pulling back to continue bullish. COT REPORT www.tradingster.com
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Austin_Palmer
Why we should not be trapped in the current situation.Essential and robust reasons for a bullish move: 1-RATE CUTS are coming soon! Everyone knows it, but big players want you to be a SELLER! ( THEY BUY). 2. The COT date confirms this! (Commercials are BUYERS! While non-commercials (poor trapped traders) are sellers). 3. Many strong support lines, levels, and patterns push the price up. ( Head and shoulder, two strong trend lines). 4. New US statistics are now revealing the negative situation in the USA after all those strange and positive data during January. www.tradingster.com
Long
by Forextudent
Short oil @ 90.60 with a stop on close above 92.4Commercials are max short and both Large & Small speculators are long. Today looks like a reversal day. Everyone is expecting $100+ www.bloomberg.com "Oil surged to a 10-month high — extending a powerful rally that may rekindle inflation — as supply cuts from OPEC+ tightened the market, with Saudi Arabia’s energy minister shying away from any change in course. Global benchmark Brent topped $95 a barrel for the first time since November, advancing for a fourth day after Saudi Arabia and Russia curtailed production. The tighter market has ignited a flurry of predictions that $100 oil could soon return in a roster than runs from industry heavyweights such as Chevron Corp. Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth to traditional bears at Citigroup Inc.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by abrahamfaure
Three Headwinds to Send Crude Oil Into Free FallNot too long ago, Gasoline prices rattled American car drivers with a price tag of USD 5 a gallon. And now, much to their delight, gasoline prices have eased to USD 3.50 a gallon. Slump in crude prices which influences gasoline has plunged by one-third over the last twelve months. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate ("WTI") trades around USD 70. Rattled US consumers, underwhelming Chinese recovery, and robust supply will drag crude oil prices down even further in the near term at least until OPEC+ meeting on June 4th. Barring an OPEC+ “shock-and-awe” intervention, crude oil will continue losing steam. This paper argues that a short position in CME Micro WTI Crude Oil expiring in July (MCLN2023) with an entry of USD 71.90 a barrel with a target of 64.80, and hedged by a stop loss at 75.60, is likely to yield a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.9x. RATTLED BUT RESILIENT. US CONSUMER SENTIMENT IS WEAKENING. Oil prices face massive headwinds in the near term in line with frail U.S. consumer sentiment. It slumped to a six-month low as a debt ceiling drama fuelled worries about the economic outlook. The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of consumer sentiment index clocked 57.7 pointing to the lowest reading since last November and down from 63.5 in April. Consumer sentiment tumbled 9% wiping out over half of the gains achieved after the all-time historic low from last June. While current macroeconomic data show little sign of recession, consumers’ worry about the economy escalated this month. Expectations for the economy a year from now sank 23% from last month. Longer term expectations contracted 16% highlighting that consumers concerns that economic downturn will not be shortlived. Consumers have demonstrated resilience thus far. But their anticipation of a recession will trigger to cut spending when signs of weakness emerge. An unresolved banking crisis and a prolonging debt ceiling drama paint a dismal picture for US consumers. It will amplify if debt default drama continues this week with rising likelihood of default and the resulting economic consequences. UNDERWHELMING CHINESE RECOVERY The much-anticipated economic rebound never occurred, but to describe it as underwhelming might be an understatement. Broad economic indicators point to weakening instead of recovery. Industrial production and retail sales missed forecasts. Unemployment rate among youth set a record high of 20.4%. A frail global economy adds to China’s gloom. High inflation and elevated rates in China’s key destination countries have slashed demand for Chinese products. Exporters at China’s largest trade fair reported a drop in overseas orders. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment, which have helped to offset the slump in property investment, both slowed in April from the previous month, a sign of more subdued government spending and weak business confidence. The property market remains weak despite early signs of a pickup in housing sales. Consumers are reluctant to borrow. China’s home price growth slowed in April. Indicators show slowing momentum in home purchases despite Government’s effort to prop up the real estate. China’s housing starts is at its lowest when compared over the last 10 years. Property investment shrank more than 16% in April YoY even though home sales grew. Construction of new homes continued to decline. New household loans, posted the first decline in 12 months in April 2023, suggesting that residents repaid more than they borrowed. NOT WEAK DEMAND BUT UNSEEN ROBUST OIL SUPPLY More than Expected Supply Given the gloomy headlines, it is easy to fall prey to the notion that demand is the problem. The real problem is too much supply, argues Javier Blas of Bloomberg. Unexpected production is primarily coming from OPEC+ countries despite promise of supply cuts. Many oil producing nations are unknowingly participants of the prisoner's game. Demand Remains Steady The IEA raised its forecast for 2023 global oil demand by 400,000 bpd, setting a record daily consumption of 102 million barrels. In short, demand remains resilient. IEA’s optimism may be misplaced, and oil demand growth might soften. But its forecast accounts for pessimistic diesel outlook. Presently, the oil market has all its eyes on Washington. The US gulps two out of every ten barrels pumped worldwide. But America is not the oil market. Its consumption lead has narrowed significantly. In 2023, the combined consumption of China and India (21.4 million bpd) is expected to be larger than the US (20.3 million bpd). The real hurdle holding back an oil rally is supply. The need for cash in producing nations forces them to pump more. These countries are trying to make up for lost revenues by ramping up volumes to compensate for what they are losing due to lower prices. MANAGED MONEY ARE BEARISH AT LEVELS UNSEEN SINCE 2011 Net position of non-commercial players is at its most bearish levels since 2011 across a combination of major oil contracts. Non-commercial participants include hedge funds, proprietary trading groups, asset managers, among others. Other Reportable Positions represent open interest by large participants that trade their own accounts and do not fit into any other category. TRADE SETUP Amid gloomy outlook and strong headwinds, this paper posits that a short position in CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures expiring in July (MCLN2023) with an entry of USD 72.00 with a target of 64.80, and hedged by a stop at 75.60, is likely to deliver a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.9x. • Entry: 71.90 USD/barrel • Target: 64.80 USD/barrel • Stop: 75.60 USD/barrel • Profit at Target: USD 710 • Loss at Stop: USD 370 • Reward-to-risk: 1.9x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:MCLN2023Short
by mintdotfinance
The CFTC has failed since 24th January to publish COT data.The CFTC has failed since 24th January to publish COT data. “Following the ION cyber-related incident, reporting firms are continuing to experience some issues submitting timely and accurate data to the CFTC. As a result, the weekly Commitments of Traders (CoT) report that normally would have been published on Friday, February 17, will be postponed." www.cftc.gov COT data is retail's chance to look at the big boys' positions. They can look at ours any time they like. They are our bankers. This report is important, right now, with BTC at a crucial level. It tells us what the big boys did in BTC last week, Why have they not got a replacement report process going in 3 weeks? For a LEGAL reporting requirement? Ask your representative maybe? If you are US.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Paul_Varcoe
79
Narrow Focus Delivers Greater ImpactFamous American Author Alfred Paul Ries once said, “Good things happen when you narrow your focus”. Global macro conditions and monetary environment could make that quote apt for US equity market investing too. Given the backdrop of price behavior, this case study argues that a spread trade comprising of Long Dow Jones Index and short S&P 500 index provides a potential reward to risk of 1.01. The charts above clearly point to the strong performance in Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA Index, a narrow market index comprising of 30 stocks) relative to the broader S&P 500 index (an index of 500 stocks). SECTOR WEIGHTINGS Based on sector weights as published by S&P Global on 31/Oct, the table below sets out the comparative analysis of the two indices. Information Technology - DJIA: 19.5%, SPX: 26.3%, Difference: -6.8%, DJIA Significantly Underweight Information Technology Health Care - DJIA: 22.2%, SPX: 15.3%, Difference: +6.9%, DJIA Significantly overweight Healthcare Financials - DJIA: 16.2%, SPX: 11.4%, Difference: +4.8%, DJIA Overweight Financials Consumer Discretionary - DJIA: 13.3%, SPX: 10.9%, Difference: +2.4%, DJIA Overweight Consumer Discretionary Industrials - DJIA: 13.9%, SPX: 8.3%, Difference: +5.6%, DJIA Significantly Overweight Industrials Communication Services - DJIA: 2.9%, SPX: 7.5%, Difference: -4.6%, DJIA Underweight Communication Services Consumer Staples - DJIA: 7.5%, SPX: 6.9%, Difference: +0.6%, DJIA Overweight Consumer Staples Energy - DJIA: 3.6%, SPX: 5.4%, Difference: -1.8%, DJIA Underweight Energy Utilities - DJIA: 0%, SPX: 3%, Difference: -3%, DJIA Underweight Utilities Real Estate - DJIA: 0%, SPX: 2.6%, Difference: -2.6%, DJIA Underweight Real Estate Materials - DJIA: 0.9%, SPX: 2.5%, Difference: -1.6%, DJIA Underweight Materials The DJIA has heavier weightage to Health Care, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Consumer Staples with underweight on Technology, Telecommunications, Utilities and Real Estate sectors. We live in times of unprecedented pace of monetary conditions tightening with high interest-rate expected right through 2023 until policy pivots creating fears of looming recession and continuing geo-political conflicts. Against such a backdrop, historically Financials and defensive sectors such as Consumer Staples, Industrials, and Health Care have outperformed rate-sensitive and growth sectors such as Technology, Real Estate and Telecommunications. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The CME Micro E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures ( MYMZ2022 ) completed a golden crossover (10d & 200d MA) on 9/Nov. A golden crossover is generally seen as a bullish signal of an uptrend. Furthermore, the MYMZ2022 closed above the R1 for the pivot indicator on 25/Nov. If this level holds, this price point could act as a support level. RSI for MYMZ2022 exhibits an overbought market condition with RSI at 71.25 as of closing 25/Nov. The stochastic indicator also points to the market having overbought with a reading of 97.74. Notably, the stochastic indicator displayed an intersection on 8/Nov which points to a potential reversal in the uptrend. Meanwhile, the MESZ2022 is currently trading below the long-term (200-day) moving average and has not had a golden crossover yet. MESZ2022 also failed to breach R1 of the standard pivot twice and closed below it on 25/Nov. The pivot R1 and the long-term moving average both point to strong resistance at this level. RSI was 61.86 as of 25/Nov. The stochastic indicator shows that MESZ2022 is overbought with a reading of 94.16. Notably, the stochastic indicator displayed an intersection with the 3-day SMA signaling a potential reversal in the uptrend. According to Goldman Sach’s 2023 Equities Outlook, they expect equities to cool off from their current rally in 2023. This is supported by historical performance during similar economic conditions. Moreover, both DJIA and S&P500’s technical signals also point to them being overbought. This could mean a correction is due for both of them. However, the DJI stands on a much stronger footing, technically, as it finds support at the long-term MA that it intersected this month. As such, the Dow is expected to be more resilient than the S&P 500 during the impending correction. COMMITMENT OF TRADERS’ REPORT According to CME’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report, S&P 500 traders have established net long positions. Dealers had long OI of 17.4% compared to short OI of 16.1%. Asset Managers and institutional investors had a long OI of 40.3% compared to 22.1% short. By contrast, Dow futures had dealer/intermediary long OI of 35.3% compared to 16.3% short. While institutions were 22.3% long compared to 8.9% short. Notably, leveraged positions for S&P 500 had 26.6% short OI against 6.5% long while DJI had a roughly balanced 22.3% for long and 21.4% for short. Charting DJIA/SPX shows that the ratio rallied in October and broke through all the resistances for the pivot indicator. November saw the ratio cool off. Both RSI and Stochastic indicator cooled off during this and currently stands neutral. The stochastic indicator recently displayed a crossover which could indicate a reversal in the downtrend. If the ascending channel highlighted below maintains, then a DJIA and SPX spread trade would be viable over the next few months. Take profit could be set as R1 and R2 of the pivot indicator. Stop loss could be set at the Pivot point. In the chart these levels have been adjusted by accounting for the 20-day historical volatility. IF HISTORY IS ANY GUIDE Analysing the ratio over the long-time frame we can see that the rally over the past month is not unexpected. The DJI/SPX ratio rallied during past instances of Quantitative Tightening as well. For instance, during 2018-19, with tightening monetary conditions, the ratio rallied to 9.363 compared to a low of 8.233 in 2016. The ratio also spiked after the tightening in 2006-08 from a low of 8.447 to a high of 10.075. Also in 2000-01, from a low of 6.984 to 9.691. Considering that the Fed has hiked rates in an aggressive manner this time around, the rapid rise in this ratio is also not unexpected. From past data, we can see that the ratio does not peak until the peak of the hiking cycle or a few months after that. From Fed statements we can see that although the pace of hikes is expected to slow, a pivot is not expected anytime soon. TRADE SET UP To establish market neutral spread trade at inception, a ratio of 7:6 lots (DJI:SPX) is required with a long position on 7 lots of DJI and a short position on 6 lots of SPX. The ratio of 7:6 ensures that the exposure to DJI and SPX is neutral with equivalent notional on each position. As such, 7 lots of Micro E-mini Dow Jones Average Futures March Expiry ( MYMH3 ) will be required which have a required margin of $750 each for a total of $5,250. Each contract of MYMH3 provides exposure to $0.5 x Dow Jones Index. Six (6) lots of Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures March Expiry ( MESH3 ) will be required which have a required margin of $750 each for a total of $6,360. Each contract of MESH3 provides exposure to $5 x S&P 500 Index. After factoring in margin credits, the anticipated total margin required for this trade is $12,000. The total notional for the trade would $120,000 SPX spread against $119,689 on DJI based on prices as of closing on 25/Nov. This case study suggests entering the spread trade at the current DJI/SPX ratio of 8.522 with a target ratio of 8.671. This would yield profit of $2,140. Where the trade is held to second target of 8.806 it would yield a profit of $4,054. In case the trade goes sour and the ratio contracts, we would exit the trade at the level of 8.236 which would result in a loss of $4,026. This leads to a reward to risk ratio of 0.53 for the first target and 1.01 for the second target. SPREAD TRADE MARGIN CME offers margin credits for spread trades. Clearing brokers might charge differently from the Exchange imposed margins. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of the future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by mintdotfinance
Bitcoin CME Report for 10 Jan to 17 Jan and AnalysisCME Overview: Bitcoin and crypto, in general, have had a major run starting most significantly since the start of the new year. BTC1! Is the Bitcoin Chicago Merchantile Exchange Futures trading and comprises institutional trading of Bitcoin. The report that comes out on Fridays shows the actions that occurred by position from the previous Tuesday to the Tuesday before that. Basically, showing a week-long snapshot of institutional positions on Bitcoin and in this idea post from Tuesday 10 Jan to Tuesday 17 Jan which is back-dated by 3 days. Bitcoin CME Report for Tuesday 10 Jan 2023 to Tuesday 17 Jan 2023: From the 10th to the 13th of January price increased from $17.1k to $19.9k before a 2-day break for the weekend. Most notably from Monday the 16th and Tuesday the 17th the CME gapped up, meaning that the close price from Friday (CME closes for weekend trading) the price of Bitcoin increased from $19.9k and opened on Monday at $20.9k. This creates a “Gap”, and by rule, gaps do not have to be filled how ever probability says they have a higher fill rate than not fill rate. That gap has now been reduced from $20.4k to $19.9k but largely still exists. In this period we see that Dealers and Intermediaries (The Exchanges / Brokerages) reduced their longs by 100 positions while still maintaining 3600 short positions. This is very different from what usually occurs in relation to lower timeframe price action as we see Dealers and Intermediaries usually adjusting their positions more regularly to catch the Major Moves Asset Managers still largely out of Position: The other interesting figure from a more accurate perspective is how out of position the Asset Managers have been in the last year plus as they began heavily building longs at the highs in the fall of 2021 and now they have begun to heavily increase their positions in this weeklong period by a further 800 positions. This means that compared to short positions Asset Managers and Institutions are 95.8% Long. Dealers and Intermediaries are still Short: To bring this into perspective Dealers and Intermediaries are still 94.69% Short having heavily shorted in the fall of 2021 and then built and continuously added major shorts from April and from the Summer of 2022, continuously increasing their positions until now. Summary: This most recent COT report is interesting as it shows Asset Managers and Institutionals building longs at the same time as we have good market movement to the upside. This means that we are potentially seeing Asset Managers and Institutionals breaking their losing streak of being out of position consistently in the past 18 months or so. The major move-up in Crypto has been driven by extreme bearish sentiment and heavy shorting in the market as every continuous move-up is met by heavy shorting from retail actors thus providing more liquidity to move price upwards. The gap is down at $19.9k and is still in place and breaking any significant structure above still gives the opportunity for the market to capitalize on taking out later longs that got into position over $20k. The upside move is still in play until support is broken, a new gap that could be formed come the Monday open on Jan 23rd would potentially provide an incentive for market movement as we open the week. Our recommendation is simple, the upside should continue until we have a significant break of structure. Late Longs have not been significantly punished as heavier liquidity is building below us.
CME:BTC1!
by TrendmasterOfficial
2
Wheat Futures Ready to Pop Again. Same Signal to Start 2020 BoomCOT Data is signaling that Wheat Futures ( CBOT:ZW1! ) are ready to pop after a few months of declines and chop As it currently stands, this is the shortest the Large Speculators have been on Wheat since 2020 where it bottomed at 589'4 to rally all the way as high as 1422'0. By no means do I expect a similar rally to ensure, but this does illustrate how oversold the large speculators are and what the consequences of that can be. I'm looking for a technical long reversal entry on the daily chart to enter the trade and then use sound risk management thereafter Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart, use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Rudeadam18
Euro ready to continue decline - according to COT Data COT Data is pointing to the Euro ( CME:6E1! ) to continue its fall after seen a brief rally For the last couple months, the large speculators have been accumulating so much Euro that is is becoming over-crowded (See the green line in the NET COT FO graph on the weekly chart). A small catalyst could send this currency back into a downward spiral, fueled by the speculators being overly long. I will be looking for my proprietary reversal signal to enter the trade and use sound risk management thereafter Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart , use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
CME:6E1!Short
by Rudeadam18
Gold is VulnerableGold has fallen below the 50-month MA (thick blue), 200-month MA (red), and is below all of the major monthly, weekly, and daily moving averages. It’s in a well-established downtrend channel after a major double top breakdown with a retest. The green line pointed to by the green arrow was a potential major uptrend line which was broken and retested. The next major trend line is the line pointed to by the purple arrow which is next to the 100-month MA (yellow). This is a logical support/target area. The Commitments of Traders (COT) report from last week show that commercials (Producer/merchant), swap dealers, and managed money are net long by a significant margin and that “Other reportables” have taken the other side of trade. I’m not sure who all these “other reportables” are but I’m sure retail traders would fall in this category. Normally the big dogs are not all on the same side of the trade but when they are, it kind of makes coming to a conclusion about likely direction based on the COT report a lot easier. Position: Short 2 micros since this morning at 1641. stops: 1645 and 1652 targets: 1625 and 1503
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Skipper86
6
LONG CRUDE - Trading with COT dataCOT Data is pointing to Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! or AMEX:USO ) being primed to pop after it's seasonal downturn This is a great example where money management is key as well as not blindly using the COT data as the sole reason for entry. Personally, I have a proprietary daily chart indicator I use to enter trades where COT data is giving signals. Crude Oil has been declining all the way down since June despite COT data that is telling us it is ready to go up (My proprietary indicator did not once provide a buy signal throughout that time period). I'm looking closely for a short-term signal to enter off of this week Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart , use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Rudeadam18
S&P Still Primed to Continue HigherCOT data is signaling a great buy opportunity in CME_MINI:ES1! despite all the talks of this "bear rally" peaking and a coming recession The COT data has had us in this trade for the last couple months - just 1 SPY Call profited over $2,000. Personally, I took profits last week in accordance to my trading system. However, with the COT data still pointing heavily long, I'm looking for the daily chart to signal a long entry this week Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson for meats, Cargill and General Mills for grains, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them (trade against) when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy (Green shading), look to sell when it hits 0 (red shading) - I use both a short-term and long-term lookback - When the small speculators are at max positions as well, it's further proof to get in the trade (shading gets darker) - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario). This is very common with Gold for example Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart, use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (I have a proprietary reversal signal I use) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize) - If the trend is against you on both a Weekly and Daily chart, the short and long term Index must both be signaling to trade. If the trade fails, look to reverse the position and go with the trend
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Rudeadam18
Long Crude! - Trading with the COT ReportThis is a great example of how to trade the COT Index and Net positioning - Commercials for crude oil are almost always net short (Think of all the big oil companies hedging their product) but in this instance, they are less net-long than they have been in quite some time (Not since November 2016). Look on the daily chart for an entry - be patient - remember your stops. I also like that the macro trend is positive. Added bonus - a great way to hedge your prices at the pump. Note: Trading the COT simply tells you when we're in a bullish/bearish environment. An entry still needs to be made based on price behavior. Additional Note: Look how accurate the COT Index has been on Crude (Red and Green highlighting on the lower chart) Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart, use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Rudeadam18
2
Long Wheat (ZW) - COT Thrust Signal (Read for Explanation)CBOT:ZW1! A bit of a unique chart setup here - typically I trade based solely on the max positioning of the commercials (See below for an explanation of what that means). However, I will occasionally look for a buy when the Net positioning of commercials has accelerated recently (Indicated by black bars in the COT indicator at bottom of the chart). For this trade, use the daily chart for an entry using your favorite technical indicator (if it triggers!). Note: Crop Progress report on Monday Risk: There has been some recent heavy selling making this slightly counter trend Additional Note: Look how accurate the COT Index has been on calling highs and lows for Wheat (Green and Red highlighting on the bottom indicator). And no, I did not optimize the settings to get this to occur. Helping Materials to Understand What I'm Talking About (I have this on all my ideas now) COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0. The black bars show when the index is moving rapidly and can also trigger a trade) - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart , use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here)
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Rudeadam18