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Commitmentsoftraders

A GOOD TIME TO BUY PUT OPTIONS ON EURJPY!We forecast a gradual demand for the JPY on the premise of global economic uncertainties. This idea is supported by almost 50% decline in net short positions of large speculators on the JPY since May 2022 from negative 110k to 54k. However, speculative positions on the Euro recently flipped to the negative to dampen the optimism of a recovery on the Euro. BoJ has alluded to signs of recovery in Japan's economy. Worthy of note was BOJ Gov Kuroda's statement: "Must be vigilant to impact of financial, currency market moves and their impact on Japan's economy, prices". The technical trigger of price below the previous month's low inspired our interest in buying 30 days PUT options @138.00
Short
by dynamiquebd
BUY IN THE LONGTERM ALONG THE DESCENDING CHANNELThe Euro Area GDP expanded by 0.6% on quarter in Q1 2022, twice a 0.3% growth in the previous estimate, and above a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in Q4. Improved export activities. Exports increased 0.4% while imports fell 0.6%. Concerns around the war in Ukraine resulting in inflationary pressures on food prices and supply disruptions The ECB is set to end 8 years of negative interest rates, in an attempt to curb record inflation, which is likely to weigh on consumer spending and investment. The European Commission expects the EA GDP growth at 2.7% for 2022. ECB President Lagarde reaffirmed plans to hike rates twice this summer. The Euro Dollar Exchange Rate - EUR/USD is expected to trade at 1.04 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts' expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 1.00 in 12 months' time. Net positions of large speculators declined significantly by 112% to negative sentiment in the futures market on the 14th of June 2022. We expect to hold 3 months Call contracts along the lower bands of the descending channel
Long
by dynamiquebd