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Can Corn Rally Ahead of the USDA Report?Corn Seasonal Trends in Play: Short September corn from 6/13-7/27. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 33 cents, or $1,650 per one 5,000-bushel contract. Fundamentals: Yesterday’s crop progress showed deteriorating crop conditions (though still better than last year at this time) with good/excellent ratings at 67%, a 3% decline. This has led to overnight relief as we inch closer to Thursday’s USDA report which will cover planted acres and quarterly stocks. The range of estimates for acres comes in from 88.4-91.0 million. In March the USDA was at 89.5. The average estimate for US corn stocks as of June 1 is 4.345 billion bushels. In last years report we were at 4.111. Technicals (September): The market dipped lower yesterday, taking out the Thursday lows but there wasn’t much follow through selling, which led to a rally off the lows into the afternoon. We would not be surprised to see the relief continue into Thursday’s USDA report, with resistance levels coming in near 680ish and more significantly 700ish. The upper end would be a retracement of last week’s secondary breakdown point and represents the 100-day moving average, not to mention the psychological significance. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 678 ¼-684 ½**, 697-701**** Pivot: 645-652 ½ Support: 624-630****, 589 ¼*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Copper's Parabolic Move UnstableThere is no doubt copper's move is substantial as chart chasers crowd on a few group think narratives: Inflation is around the corner. Is it? Headline inflation in the United States in 1.47 percent. To put that in perspective, it's down four percent from July 2008 highs of 5.4 percent. To add further perspective to that, inflation is cyclical. It has risen, from previously declining, into every U.S. recession (except two) is seven decades. Each of those bouts ended up in a deflationary recession. Copper prices, and the narrative of higher inflation, is coinciding with a much stronger DXY. Due to global central planning to weaken their respective currencies, the dollar has remained rather strong. Either the dollar plummets or copper does. Unless the greenback breaks through 92.50, the 2011 bull market continues higher, pending more Q.E. from the Federal Reserve. China is growing. Not really. Internal data suggests China is growing less than half of its official growth figure. Fiscal stimulus is a possibility, but the Communist government has a long-standing affective of pumping liquidity and generating fiscal deficits to inflate on asset bubble to another. In a note from July 2013, I said "The excessive liquidity in China has led to a huge redundancy in investments and speculation, and this has contributed to excess capacity in both manufacturing and infrastructure. This inefficiency of channeling the free-flowing liquidity undermines China's development." This will continue. The People’s Bank of China has increased net liquidity to the financial sector by a staggering +2,022% year-to-date. The commodity burst has finally reached a bottom. Really? Too early to tell, especially if growth continues to slow. Price discrepancy is way out of wack. With a z-score on the daily and weekly of over 2.5, price will have to come down. RSI is at 87, while the stochastic indicator is highly overbought. Copper does have momentum on its side, but near-term could see a pullback to 2.30 to consolidate.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by MacroView_Research
XAUUSD. Excellent place for adding longsXAUUSD, also known as Gold, may not have bottomed yet but it is very close to some excellent levels for addning long positions! I´ve already bought a small piece at 1270 and will keep adding longs as soon as Golld will get closer to 1250 (if it will of course). As per this chart, if the fork bottoms are broken, Daily 200 MA will be next important barrier and 61.8& fibo should be the ultimate wall for this sudden but heavily expected dump. Wave B if finishing, time for a final correction wave C
FX:XAUUSDLong
by captain_smollett
6
XAUUSD : Long and Short PossiblitiesAddendum to previous chart. 1281- 1285 provides huge supply. Break of rising wedge can lead gold towards around 0.5 fib 1235 retrace. Dovish News can provide more strength to pull gold towards 1300 region. We can see huge commercial short covering if retrace do not happen and this might fuel bull run even more. IR hike can trigger fall towards 1150. If not then bounce towards channel top. We may see huge manipulation Pre and Post FOMC. Trade Carefully. Good Luck Wish you all Million Dollar
FX:XAUUSD
by robus
1
Brent outlook Resistance – 48.26, 49.10, 49.81 Support – 47.36, 46.74, 46.16 Brent’s bearish price RSI divergence seen on the daily chart is likely to keep bulls at the bay so long as prices do not see a day end closing above $49.81. This coupled with rejection at 5-DMA and 10-DMA in Asia risks sending prices lower to support at $47.36, under which losses could be extended to $46.74. However, bears should watch out for a break above $48.63 (this week’s high) as such a move would add credence to a rebound from weekly 5-MA seen yesterday and expose hurdle at $49.81.
FX:UKOIL
by TipTVFinance