Get started

Commodites

Weekly Momentum Analysis On Major Pairs (Wk29/2019)First Thing First: This analysis is for “general overview only” as it is solely based on price action. That’s why it is called momentum analysis in the first place. Support/Resistant, Volume, Macro nor any other factors are not used during write up. Refer to the individual pair analysis for a more comprehensive write up. XXX/USD: Slight Bearish Gold & Silver: Bullish XXX/JPY: Mixed Stock Indexes: Mixed/Slight Bullish (HK index is pointing sideway) BitCoin: Neutral
by SonicDeejay
Commodities short term bear long term bullHi all, Just a quick post to say: - I have been watching diversified commodity indexes recently as they provide meaningful diversification in any portfolio (generally a small % allocation is recommended) . - Over the past 9 years (as you can see) this has been in a strong and long-lived bear market. The bottom must be somewhere, below $13 is a good candidate for the bottom - and I will be a buyer at these prices. - Recently Iron ore, Palladium, Crude have been on a rally - which shows that there are signs of life at least. - Generally, commodities have been on a steep losing streak - which is even more drastic if inflation if considered - but rest assured that commodities both have value and are undervalued. I see Commodities as a valuable hedge against inflation / devaluation / debt crisis. All of these scenarios are taken increasingly seriously and are more than the ramblings of outsiders. In a crisis,when the banks and markets freeze up, those things with real-life immediate utility value will appreciate. Discussing financial shocks with a friend from an emerging economy recently, they described how their family stayed afloat by entering (when the writing was on the wall but the chips hadn't yet fallen) a contract for physical delivery of key consumer commodities. These were repackaged and then sold to the local community at the market price of the day. The lines were long and demand outstripped supply. Despite significant currency devaluation, extreme uncertainty, and social upheaval demand for basic necessities remained - as will be the case in all current and future crises. In a world that is in the grips of a major unfolding debt crisis I want at least a portion of my portfolio in things that you can "hold in your hand." Now, you can't hold an ETF in your hand. I will be buying physical precious metals (bullionstar dot com in Singapore) as no other commodities are really value dense or non-perishable enough for storage outside of specialised facilities. I intend to allocate 5% of my portfolio to this ETF below $13. Wish me luck
AMEX:DBCLong
by flyinkiwi10
Crude correction seems not to be complete yet - bearish signsThanks for viewing. It seems we are still in the primary wave 4 correction as there has just been a significant impulse wave failure. Wave 3 exceeded a 1:1 extension of wave (i) up and wave 3 met all its internal targets, however, the recent correction was not stopped before entering well into the wave (i) territory. This indicates that further correction is required, so what we might see is a truncated wave (v) top and another zig-zag correction into the $60s. It is a little early to set a target. If you are long and also under water now, you may want to consider exiting the trade on the next bounce for a small profit or at break-even as the coming dip will be similar in size to the previous zig-zag that wiped $10 off the price of crude. I will come out with a new chart with targets in a week or so, when there is a bit more price action. I will mainly be looking for strong bearish divergence on the RSI when the wave (v) is forming below, level, or just above the wave (iii) peak and when the wave (v) sub-waves are complete.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by flyinkiwi10
Gold long-term Technical AnalysisLower trend-line break. Strong chance of a price bounce to around the lower trend-line before commencing a steep decline to potentially make a 1:1 extension of wave A (primary) which would put the price down to $505 over the next 2 to 4 years. As this is a long timeline and a significant drop, I would tend to lock in profits along the way - as a full 1:1 extension may not be achieved and wave 2 and 4 corrections may complex, significant in size, and slow. If further confirmation is needed: a short trade can be entered on a break below $1045 (as that will confirm a >100% retracement of the weak corrective move (from 2016 to the present) and point to a significant correction. There is potential for gold to become bullish if the 2016 to present up-move emerges as a leading first wave diagonal - which will still be on the table if price remains above $1045 and then rallies. In this scenario a break above $1355 would indicate strong support for the view that prices can reach $1660+ in the medium term. Personally, I am backing the short view and believe it is more likely that the 2016 to present move was a weak corrective abc move that comes half-way into the retracement of the 2011 highs and that the gold price will return to near pre-2011 run-up levels (despite quite a lot of geopolitical uncertainty). I am not a professional and am sharing my own Technical Analysis (100% TA and no fundamental analysis undertaken) primarily to further my own education. I do not relish the thought of the economic pain that my view entails in regards to the gold mining industry and investors. Personally, I have recently become somewhat of a gold bug due to my involvement with cryptocurrency and declining faith in the fiat monetary system, and am looking to invest in physical gold but am waiting for the right price before going long.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by flyinkiwi10
Gold’s weekly outlook: June 05-09Gold posted incremental weekly gains of over $12 which was broadly on account of bad data coming out of America which helped subdue fears over a possible rate hike by the U.S Fed in this month. Week was again a range bound one with the prices traveling between $1259-$1272 until last day when gold broke through the ever crucial $1272 conclusively which helped in adding more gains. Weekly candle formed is yet again showing bullishness in the metal price for the coming week. On the chart – Gold was clearly in a bullish momentum as the dips towards $1259 were bought on all occasions with the weekly candle forming higher top and higher bottom which is considered to be a very positive sign for the metal. Gold was expected to break through the $1272 mark and enter into next trading range which it complied to. Circles in the chart denote the ranges gold can trade in, and the break into the 2nd circle indicates range expansion thus indicating more bullishness for the metal. With shapes favoring bullishness we have a scenario for it – Gold saw the dips towards $1259 bought on every occasion which suggested expansion of the range as in earlier week similar thing happened at $1247 levels. Gold broke through the resistance of $1272 on back of poor U.S data which helped the prices move into the next trading range denoted by the circle on the chart. With gold into the new trading range, prices might rise higher towards $1288 (A) as gaps in the chart will aid the movement to be brisk. If this level is taken out, prices are expected to move further higher to $1298 (B) which might act as a brief resistance since its a behavioral pattern when prices move towards new highs. If this price point is crossed, gold may edge higher towards $1307 (C) which is nearly the top of the trading range/circle and good resistance is expected here. On a side note, there is a bearish scenario available but its very unlikely. Still a bearish trade can be initiated if prices break $1259 (1) which may lead to further downfall towards $1233 (2), and if this support area gives way the prices might find its feet near $1216 (3) which is lowest point of the circle/trading range and a good support for the metal. Better than above is to trade the range of $1259-$1273 on a bearish note that is to sell under $1273 for the target of $1259 if a trade on bear side is to be taken at all. Bullish View – Bulls were in charge as the prices created higher top and higher bottom which is extremely positive. Clearly bets on the bullish side were visible since dips to $1259 were bought thrice which was followed by incremental gains as such pattern suggests with a close way higher above $1272. Another aspect which denotes bullishness is the fact gold closed above the overlapping resistance of $1278 and a clear break into the next trading range. This buying pressure may continue with gold expected to create new highs in the coming week also confirmed by the pattern formation of triple bottom. On larger terms, Gold remains in bullish bias with prices expected to move higher in the trading range of $1270-$1308. Possible trades are on the bullish side, Gold can be bought near $1280 for the targets of $1288 and $1298 with a stop loss placed below $1273. Longer term target $1307. If we see a fall in prices it can be bought near $1269-$1273 for the above targets with a stop loss placed below $1259. Short trades are unlikely, though gold can be sold under $1259 for targets of $1233 and $1216 with a stop loss placed above $1273. Better trading option on the short side is to trade the range of $1259-$1273, that it selling gold under $1273 for the target of $1259 with a stop loss placed above $1280.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
Iron ore bulls, don’t jump the gunWe do see a strong inverse head and shoulder breakout on the weekly chart, however, still it is premature to say that a major trend reversal has happened. This is because the descending trend line drawn from the Feb 2013 and Dec 2013 high is yet to be breached. Once breached on the weekly chart, the bulls could call a long-term trend reversal. Note – Failure to take out the trend line followed by a dip below neckline support would be bad news for Iron ore and the Aussie dollar.
I
by TipTVFinance
1
CAT is On Its Last LifeCaterpillar is known for being a global economic bellwether, and considering it recent stock performance you'd think economic activity is alive and well. Unfortunately, this is not the case. In fact, despite CAT "beating" its recent Q3 earnings estimates (which rely heavily on accounting gimmicks), the global mining and construction company reported that all is not well while lowering its forward guidance. Chairman and C.E.O Doug Oberhelman said "economic weakness throughout much of the world persists and, as a result, most of our end markets remain challenged." He further went on to say, "in North America, the market has an abundance of used construction equipment, rail customers have substantial number of idle locomotives, and around the world there are a significant number of idle mining trucks." It's important to know that global sales have contracted for nearly three straight years, and trouble with their business began once the massive commodity bubble began to pop in 2011. CAT v Deutsche Bank Tracked Commodities The fundamentals prove negative for the stock going forward. At 47.93x trailing 12M earnings, the stock is grossly inflated over its 5-year average of 16.93 - where many of the company's industry peers currently reside. We currency foresee further weakness throughout the global economy, especially in China. Although, the Chinese government is fight tooth and nail, running deep monthly budget deficits, we do not expect China to regain its previous growth expansion before a financial crisis breaks out - PBoC boots net liquidity to the financial sector by 1.06 trillion CNY, or a 2,022 percent increase YoY. The People’s Bank of China has increased net liquidity to the financial sector by a staggering +2,022% year-to-date, to 1.06 trillion CNY. If you want to learn more follow @Macro_View on TWTR and go to macroview.co to get on our waiting list to subscribe.
NYSE:CATShort
by MacroView_Research
Gold – Daily chart is a mess!Gold’s daily chart is a mess as we have an expanding channel formation, whose upper end is still acting as a support/resistance. We have a rising trend line that was breached on August 8 and since then multiple attempts to get back above the same on daily closing basis have failed. And now we also have a symmetrical triangle formation. Amid all this the money flow index is dropping, which goes down well for the bears when viewed in light of multiple failed attempts to retake rising trend line. Selling is seen gathering pace once $1337 is breached (symmetrical triangle support). The metal could target $1300 in this case On the higher side, bulls are advised to wait for a convincing close above $1363.
FX:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance