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Silver Holds Near 13-Year High Amid Tariff UncertaintySilver held above $36.80 Friday, near 13-year highs, as renewed trade tensions supported safe-haven demand. Markets grew cautious after Trump announced plans to send tariff letters, and as the House passed his tax and spending bill, expected to widen the deficit by over $3 trillion. Silver’s gains were capped by a surprisingly stronger June US jobs report, which eased recession fears and reduced near-term Fed rate cut pressure. Resistance is at 37.50, while support holds at 35.40.
FOREXCOM:XAGUSD
by ChartMage
New tariffs are coming. How should gold respond?📰 News information： 1. 90-day tariffs are about to expire 2. New unilateral tariffs 3. Geopolitical situation 📈 Technical Analysis： On July 4th local time, there were constant turmoil in American politics and trade. Trump declared that the US government would send letters to trading partners that day to set new unilateral tariff rates, which would most likely take effect on August 1. He also revealed that the new tariff rates could soar to 70%. At the same time, Japan-US trade negotiations encountered obstacles, India planned to impose retaliatory tariffs on the United States, and the China-EU tariff war had also begun. At present, the news seems to be more favorable to the bulls. From a technical point of view, gold closed higher last week, showing that there is still upward momentum this week. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the pressure in the 3365 and 3375 - 3380 areas, and the 3400 mark is a key position where bulls and bears are fighting fiercely. Before breaking through this position, we must be alert to the risk of falling back after a high rise. Pay attention to the support of 3310-3305 and 3295-3285 below. If effective support is obtained, we can consider going long. If it breaks, it may go to 3270-3260. Gold jumped to 3342 at the opening of the Asian session and then fell back. 3345 is the key in the short term. The news may affect its subsequent trend. In the short term, pay attention to the suppression of 3345 on the upper side, and further to the strong resistance area of 3365-3380. If there is resistance and pressure, you can short at a high level. The impact of recent news is erratic, so enter the market with caution and be sure to set TP and SL strictly. 🎯 Trading Points： SELL 3330-3345 TP 3320-3310-3295 BUY 3310-3305 TP 3320-3330-3345 In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, confronting your mistakes, and strictly disciplining yourself. I hope my analysis can help you🌐. TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Allenbrowser-3
NFP continues to ferment, short-term trend dominated by bears📰 News information： 1. 90-day tariffs are about to expire 2. New unilateral tariffs 3. Geopolitical situation 📈 Technical Analysis： Good morning, bros. From a technical point of view, the overall trend of the daily line is a head and shoulders top. If the bulls do not recover 3360, the bears will still be the medium-term trend. The 4H MACD indicator is dead cross running. The best position for the day to deploy the short position again is 3330-3335, and the 1H chart keeps testing the 3305 first-line support, which may be broken in the short term. At present, 3295-3285 below is a relatively important short-term support. Once it falls below, it is expected to reach 3250, which is also the point I repeatedly emphasized in the morning. The intraday operation suggestion is to rebound shorting as the main, and to go long at lows as the auxiliary. Pay attention to the 3325-3335 support area on the upper side and the 3295-3285 support on the lower side. 🎯 Trading Points： SELL 3325-3335 TP 3315-3305-3295 BUY 3295-3285 TP 3305-3315-3325 In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, confronting your mistakes, and strictly disciplining yourself. I hope my analysis can help you🌐. FXOPEN:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Allenbrowser-3
XAU/USD : Get Ready for Another Fall ! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that, as expected from our previous analysis, when the price was trading around $3327, it climbed to the supply zone at $3345. After reaching this key level, strong selling pressure emerged, leading to a sharp drop in gold today down to $3296. This move played out exactly as anticipated, and now, if the price stabilizes below $3330, we could expect further downside pressure on gold. The Main Analysis :
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
2
XAU/USD) order block back up trand Read The captionSMC trading point update Technical analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe, focusing on a potential reversal from a key support/order block zone. Here's a full breakdown --- Chart Analysis – XAU/USD (1H) 1. Key Zone: Support Level / Order Block (Yellow Box) The price is currently testing a strong support zone that previously acted as a bullish order block (demand area). This zone is also near a diagonal trendline and a prior breakout level, adding confluence to the setup. 2. Reversal Anticipation (Black Zigzag Path) The chart suggests two possible scenarios from the support area: A bullish bounce leading price up toward: Target 1: 3,343.05 (near 200 EMA) Target 2: 3,364.62 (upper resistance) A break below the yellow support zone, triggering a deeper move toward: Key support: 3,247.55 3. RSI Oversold Signal RSI (14) is at 32.66, which is near oversold territory, signaling potential for a bullish reversal if buying pressure steps in. 4. EMA (200 - Blue Line) EMA at 3,330.95 currently acts as dynamic resistance. If price bounces from the order block, this EMA may serve as the first reaction level before further upside. Mr SMC Trading point --- Summary Bias: Bullish bounce if price holds above 3,296.04 (order block support). Entry Zone: Current price near 3,301 or confirmation bounce candle. Targets: TP1: 3,343.05 TP2: 3,364.62 Invalidation: Strong break and close below 3,296.04 may open the path to 3,247.55. RSI: Favoring reversal conditions (near oversold). --- Please support boost 🚀 this analysis)
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by SMC-Trading-Point
13
XAU/USD) support level back bullish trend Read The captionSMC trading point update Technical analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) on the 3-hour timeframe, suggesting a long trade idea with a clearly defined support zone and target projection. Here's the detailed breakdown: --- Chart Breakdown (3H - XAU/USD) 1. Support Zone (Yellow Box): Price reacted strongly to the 3,244–3,300 area, which is identified as a key support level. This area has historically seen demand and is now acting as a base for potential bullish continuation. 2. Falling Wedge Breakout: A falling wedge pattern has been broken to the upside, which is typically a bullish reversal signal. The breakout indicates a shift from the previous bearish momentum into bullish strength. 3. EMA 200 Confirmation: Price is now above the 200 EMA (3,333.347), supporting a bullish bias. This can act as dynamic support going forward. 4. RSI Momentum: RSI at 62.00, indicating growing bullish momentum without being overbought. The RSI has also broken above a previous local high, confirming strength. 5. Target Projection: The projected move (blue arrowed box) suggests a potential rally of +105.305 points (3.20%), targeting the 3,394.503 level. This level aligns with previous price structure and acts as the next major resistance. 6. Anticipated Price Path (Black Zigzag Line): Price is expected to pull back slightly, retesting the wedge breakout or support zone. After this retest, a bullish continuation toward the target point is projected. Mr SMC Trading point --- Summary: Bias: Bullish Pattern: Falling wedge breakout + support retest Entry Zone: Around 3,300–3,320 on a retest Target: 3,394.503 Invalidation: Strong break and close below 3,244.166 Confirmation: Bullish price action near support + sustained RSI strength Please support boost 🚀 this analysis)
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SMC-Trading-Point
14
XAUUSD: Market analysis and strategy on July 7Gold technical analysis Daily chart resistance 3360, support 3270 4-hour chart resistance 3345, support 3280 1-hour chart resistance 3325, support 3300. 3300 is now the short-term long-short dividing line. If it falls below, it will enter a new shock zone. Please pay attention to the 3300 support level before the NY market today! (The resistance level is 3320~3325). From the fundamentals, although the gold market has experienced a technical correction in the short term, gold will continue to maintain its status as a safe-haven asset under the continued uncertainty of US trade policy and complex geopolitical tensions. As Trump's tariff deadline (July 9) approaches, we should pay close attention to the development of US trade policy around August 1 (if the tariff policy is delayed to ease the demand for safe-haven assets, combined with the technical bearish information, gold will continue to find support below 3,300). SELL: 3300 SELL: 3325
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ActuaryJ
Silver sideways consolidation support at 3500The Silver price action continues to exhibit a bullish sentiment, underpinned by a prevailing rising trend. However, recent intraday moves indicate a corrective pullback, reflecting short-term consolidation within the broader uptrend. Key Technical Levels: Support: 3,500 – Primary support and previous consolidation zone; critical for maintaining bullish structure. 3,450 – Secondary support; potential downside target if 3,500 fails. 3,390 – Key lower support; aligns with a broader demand area. Resistance: 3,720 – Immediate upside resistance; first target on a bullish bounce. 3,790 – Intermediate resistance; aligns with recent swing highs. 3,850 – Long-term resistance target; marks the upper boundary of the current bullish channel. Scenario Analysis: Bullish Continuation (Base Case): A bounce from the 3,500 level would affirm the corrective pullback as temporary, with potential for a bullish continuation targeting 3,720, followed by 3,790 and 3,850 over a longer timeframe. Bearish Reversal (Alternative Scenario): A daily close below 3,500 would undermine the current bullish outlook and signal a deeper retracement, with downside risk toward 3,450 and potentially 3,390, where structural support may stabilize price. Conclusion: Silver remains structurally bullish, with the current pullback offering a potential entry point within the trend. The 3,500 level is the key pivot—holding above it supports further upside continuation, while a breakdown below would raise the risk of a deeper correction. Traders should watch for price action confirmation at this level to validate the next directional move. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:XAGUSD
by TradeNation
Gold corrective pullback support at 3268The Gold remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 3268 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 3268 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 3345 – initial resistance 3365 – psychological and structural level 3386 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 3268 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 3250 – minor support 3225 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the Gold holds above 3268. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by TradeNation
Gold Under Pressure After NFP Beat – More Downside Ahead?Moments ago, the US Non-Farm Payrolls surprised to the upside at 147K (vs 111K forecast), while the Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.1% (vs 4.3% expected) . This stronger-than-expected labor market data reinforces the idea that the Fed has no immediate reason to cut rates. As a result, the USD( TVC:DXY ) strengthened, and gold came under renewed selling pressure. If the dollar momentum continues, Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) may face further downside in the short term. In terms of Technical Analysis , Gold fell below the Resistance zone($3,350-$3,326) again after the announcement of US indices and is currently moving near the Support lines and 50_SMA(Daily) . In terms of Elliott wave theory , it seems that Gold has completed 5 impulsive waves in the one-hour time frame, and we should now wait for corrective waves . I expect Gold to fall again after the upward correction , and the Support zone($3,312-$3,290) could be the target. Note: Stop Loss (SL) = $3,365 Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅ ' like ' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by pejman_zwin
19
On Swing Traders’ Radar: Gold Pattern Alert on the Daily Chart!Dear Traders, In my daily gold analysis, I’m observing a Head and Shoulders pattern nearing completion. The neckline is currently positioned around the 3,247.00 level. If this neckline breaks to the downside, gold could potentially drop toward the 3,150.00 area. Since this is a one-day analysis—aligned with a swing trading style—it may take some time for the setup to fully play out. I meticulously prepare these analyses for you, and I sincerely appreciate your support through likes. Every like from you is my biggest motivation to continue sharing my analyses. I’m truly grateful for each of you—love to all my followers💙💙💙
TVC:GOLD
by TraderTilki
Crude oil $ukoil - Final falling oil has been a barometer of the financial market for the last decades. I look at the formations and I see that we will see a renewal of the bottom in the coming months, I will not say the reasons, you just need to wait a little. I've been talking about the fall for a long time, but it's not over yet. After the final fall, I expect a renewal of the highs, due to the worsening situation in the Middle East, this will be after September Best Regards EXCAVO
FX:UKOILShort
by EXCAVO
5
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Move Up Ahead! Last week, I already shared a bullish setup on WTI Crude Oil on a daily time frame. I see a strong intraday bullish confirmation today. After a test of an underlined blue support area, the price went up strongly and violated a resistance line of a bullish flag pattern on a 4H time frame. The market is going to rise more. Goal - 68.2 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
FX:USOILLong
by VasilyTrader
1
DeGRAM | GOLD formed a declining peak📊 Technical Analysis ● Price has slipped back beneath the inner rising-channel median and is now riding a fresh descending channel; repeated failures at 3 355 have carved a lower-high sequence. ● A clean hourly close under 3 308 would confirm loss of the late-June support shelf and open the next structural pivots at 3 248 (mid-May swing) and 3 202 (channel base / former demand). 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Firmer US payroll headline and another uptick in 2-yr real yields revived the dollar, while CFTC data show a second week of long liquidation in COMEX gold—dampening bid strength. ✨ Summary Sell rallies ≤3 330; sustained trade below 3 308 targets 3 248 → 3 202. Bias void on an H4 close above 3 355. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by DeGRAM
1
USOIL:Today's Trading Strategy Oil prices have signs of upward breakthrough at present, yesterday's trend broke the short - term narrow range of shock range, on the idea of retracting to do more. The more appropriate long point is 66-66.3, if short, the more appropriate point is 67-67.4, but the short position is recommended not to be too heavy, not to do less than the point. Trading Strategy: SELL@67-67.4 TP: 66-66.3 BUY@66-66.3 TP: 67.5-68 More detailed strategies and trading will be notified here ↗↗↗ Keep updated, come to "get" ↗↗↗
TVC:USOILLong
by Boooob_
Week Opens with a Sharp Sell-Off – But Is It Really Bearish?At the start of this trading week, Gold took a significant plunge to $3306, breaking below the critical $3300 support and reaching as low as the $329x area. While this sharp drop may seem alarming, it is unlikely to signal a sustained bearish trend. Instead, this move could be a liquidity sweep, a common occurrence before the market reaccumulates. 🌐 Macroeconomic Landscape Impacting Gold: US Inflation Continues to Cool: This offers the Federal Reserve more flexibility for potential easing in the near future. FOMC Minutes are Coming This Week: Traders are eagerly awaiting insights from the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes to gauge any hints of a rate cut. Gaza Tensions Ease Temporarily: With geopolitical tensions easing, the demand for safe havens like Gold may slightly decrease. 🔸 Additional Factors: Trump’s New Tax Bill: The passage of Trump's tax reform has put additional pressure on US public debt, potentially impacting market sentiment. US–China Trade War: Delays in negotiations between the US and China may reduce short-term risk appetite among traders. Market Consolidation: Overall, the market seems to be in a consolidation phase, with a potential breakout on the horizon in the coming sessions. 📉 Technical Focus – Continuation Pattern (CP) Emerges From a technical perspective, a Continuation Pattern (CP) is forming, which typically suggests a temporary pullback before the price resumes its primary trend. Here's a breakdown of key levels: 3,336 Resistance Rejected: After failing to break the 3,336 resistance level, Gold quickly fell through the 3,323 support, testing the important 3,303 zone. 3,293 Support Zone: If the 3,293 level fails to hold, the next downside target will likely be the deeper liquidity zone around 3,278. This level could trigger a more significant buying reaction, providing a potential opportunity for bulls to re-enter the market. 🔑 Key Levels to Watch: Buy Zone 3291-3289: Stop Loss (SL): 3287 Take Profit (TP): 3299, 3310, OPEN Buy Zone 3244-3246: Stop Loss (SL): 3238 Take Profit (TP): 3255, 3263, OPEN Sell Zone Scalping 3337-3339: Stop Loss (SL): 3343 Take Profit (TP): 3325, 3313, OPEN Sell Zone 3362-3364: Stop Loss (SL): 3367 Take Profit (TP): 3353, 3341, OPEN 📊 Conclusion: The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with strong support and resistance zones in play. The recent pullback offers potential opportunities for both buyers and sellers, depending on how the market reacts to key technical levels. The next few sessions will be crucial in determining whether the market breaks out of this consolidation, and traders should stay alert to adjust their strategies accordingly.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EliseLunaTraders
WEEK PLAN|Will This Gold Rally Collapse Into a Liquidity Trap ? Gold remains trapped between high-liquidity resistance and a strong order block below. While short-term bullish structure is forming, the weekly outlook remains complex due to upcoming high-impact events from the Fed and US labour data. Expect volatility and traps in both directions. 🧠 Fundamental Context FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wed 9 July): Market will look for rate cut clues. Unemployment Claims (Thu 10 July): A stronger labour market = stronger USD = bearish for gold. FOMC Member Waller Speaks (Thu 10 July): Any hawkish tone could cap gold upside. 📊 Key Zones Zone Role Notes 3,387 – 3,439 Sell Zone High liquidity, weak highs, ideal reversal trap 3,240 – 3,260 Buy Zone Strong OB, liquidity sweep, aligned with trendline support 3,365 Weekly High May reject or break based on macro catalyst 🛠️ Trade Setups (Entry Zones as Requested) ✅ 1. BUY GOLD Entry: 3,346 – 3,344 Stop Loss: 3,340 TP1: 3,356 TP2: 3,366 TP3: 3,376+ (Open Target) Rationale: Scalping long off micro demand, aiming for a short-term spike above liquidity. ✅ 2. BUY GOLD SCALPING Entry: 3,291 – 3,289 Stop Loss: 3,285 TP1: 3,299 TP2: 3,310 TP3: 3,320+ (Open Target) Rationale: Buy on breakout momentum before hitting higher sell-side zones. ✅ 3. SELL GOLD Entry: 3,389 – 3,391 Stop Loss: 3,396 TP1: 3,381 TP2: 3,371 TP3: 3,361 (Open Target) Rationale: Fade the breakout — fakeout zone targeting liquidity void beneath. ✅ 4. SELL GOLD Entry: 3,349 – 3,351 Stop Loss: 3,355 TP1: 3,339 TP2: 3,329 TP3: 3,319 (Open Target) Rationale: Short off weak rally, playing potential rejection near intraday high. 📅 This Week’s Events Date Event Likely Impact 9 July FOMC Minutes Fed tone → volatility spike 10 July Jobless Claims (233K) Strong number = gold downside 10 July FOMC Waller Speech Additional risk-on/risk-off flows ⚠️ Trading Strategy Use H1–H4 confirmations (CHoCH, BOS, FVG) before entries. Avoid entries 1h before and after red news. Focus on 3,260–3,439 range as key decision area for the week.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EliseLunaTraders
XAUUSD Below 3300 – Buying Opportunity or Trap? Gold Breaks Below 3300 – A Buying Opportunity or Sign of Deeper Correction? 🧭 Weekly Kickoff: Is the Sell-off Really That Dangerous? At the start of the week, gold experienced a sharp drop to 3306 USD, breaking through the psychological 3300 support level and testing the 329x region. However, this isn't necessarily a sign of a sustainable downtrend — it's more likely a liquidity sweep before the market consolidates again for a bigger move. 🌐 Macro Updates Impacting Gold: US inflation continues to ease, providing space for the Fed to loosen policy if needed. FOMC minutes due soon — markets will be closely watching for clues about possible rate cuts. Tensions in Gaza de-escalate temporarily, leading to a slight reduction in demand for safe-haven assets. Trump's new tax bill has been passed, adding pressure to US public debt. US–China trade war may be delayed — reducing short-term geopolitical pressure. In summary, we are in a consolidation phase, with a high probability of a breakout in the coming days. 📉 Technical Analysis – CP Pattern in Focus We are seeing a Continuation Pattern (CP), which generally signals that the current correction is a pause before the trend continues. After rejecting resistance at 3336, gold fell, breaking through the 3323 support and quickly testing the 3303 zone, a key short-term support. If gold breaks below 3293, the next target will be the 3278 USD liquidity zone, where strong buying could emerge. 📌 Key Trading Plan – 04 July 🔵 BUY ZONE 3294 – 3292 Stop Loss: 3288 Take Profit: 3298 → 3302 → 3306 → 3310 → 3315 → 3320 → 3330 🔴 SELL SCALP 3324 – 3326 Stop Loss: 3330 Take Profit: 3320 → 3316 → 3312 → 3308 → 3304 → 3300 🔴 SELL ZONE 3350 – 3352 Stop Loss: 3356 Take Profit: 3346 → 3340 → 3335 → 3330 → 3320 🧠 Market Sentiment Today The market is currently in a consolidation phase, likely trading sideways between 3320 and 3340. A breakout seems likely once the liquidity from the US holiday subsides. ✅ Primary Bias: Look to buy dips into support zones. ⚠️ Alternative View: Only consider selling if price clearly rejects key resistance levels. 💬 What’s Your View on Gold Today? Do you think gold will break through 3390 soon, or is there more room for a deeper correction towards 3270? 👇 Share your thoughts and analysis in the comments below!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
3
Rain or Ruin? Analyzing Wheat Prices During Precip Extremes1. Introduction: When Rain Means Risk for Wheat Traders Rain is life for wheat crops—until it isn’t. In the world of agriculture, water is essential, but extremes in precipitation can cause just as much harm as droughts. For traders in the wheat futures market, understanding this relationship between rainfall and price action is not just useful—it’s essential. Wheat is a crop with a long growth cycle, grown across diverse geographies like the U.S. Plains, the Canadian Prairies, Russia, and Ukraine. Each region has its own precipitation rhythm, and any disruption can ripple through the global supply chain. The question is: can weather signals—especially rainfall—be used to predict market behavior? This article dives into that question using a data-driven lens. We categorized precipitation data and measured how wheat futures returns responded to different rainfall environments. The results? Revealing, and at times, counterintuitive. 2. The Role of Rainfall in Wheat Production Wheat, especially spring and winter varieties, is particularly sensitive to soil moisture levels at key phases like germination, tillering, and heading. Too little rain in early development and the crop can fail to establish. Too much rain close to harvest? Risk of disease, sprouting, and quality degradation. Traders have long known that unexpected wet or dry weeks can trigger speculative surges or hedging activity. But how do these events influence actual futures returns? Before answering that, we need to translate rain into something traders can use: categories based on historical norms. 3. Methodology: Categorizing Rainfall and Measuring Market Response To understand how wheat prices respond to different levels of rainfall, we analyzed weekly precipitation data across global wheat-producing regions. We normalized the data using percentiles: Low Precipitation: Below the 25th percentile Normal Precipitation: Between the 25th and 75th percentiles High Precipitation: Above the 75th percentile We then matched this categorized weather data with weekly returns from wheat futures (symbol: ZW) to explore if price behavior systematically varied depending on how wet or dry a week had been. To test significance, we used a simple t-test comparing the mean returns of low-precip and high-precip weeks. The p-value (6.995E-06) revealed a compelling result: yes, there is a statistically significant difference. 4. Results: High Rainfall, Higher Price Volatility The data confirms that weeks with extreme rainfall—especially those with high precipitation—often align with more volatile wheat price movements. But here’s the twist: while low-precip weeks didn’t consistently show bullish returns, high-precip weeks correlated with negative or erratic returns. That makes sense when you think about harvest delays, rot, and declining grain quality. Traders watching forecasts for excessive rainfall should consider the implications for grain availability and price stabilization mechanisms. This is where speculative plays or hedging via options and standard or micro futures contracts can become especially useful. 5. Interpreting the Volatility: Why the Market Reacts to Rain Why does excessive rain lead to such uneven price behavior? The answer lies in uncertainty. Heavy rainfall often introduces multiple variables into the equation: planting delays, logistical bottlenecks, and downgraded wheat quality due to fungal infections. For example, a wet harvest can reduce protein content, pushing millers to seek alternatives—altering both demand and supply expectations simultaneously. This dual-sided pressure—reduced high-quality yield and uncertain export capability—tends to shake market confidence. Traders respond not just to the supply data but also to how much trust they place in the supply pipeline itself. 6. Futures Contracts: Navigating Risk with Position Size Control Traders looking to participate in wheat price action have two main CME-listed options: Standard Wheat Futures (ZW) Contract Size: 5,000 bushels Tick Size: 1/4 cent per bushel (0.0025) has a $12.50 per tick impact Margin Requirement: Approx. $1,700 (subject to change) Micro Wheat Futures (MZW) Contract Size: 500 bushels (1/10th the size of the standard contract) Tick Size: 0.0050 per bushel has a $2.50 per tick impact Margin Requirement: Approx. $170 (subject to change) Micro contracts like MZW offer a lower-cost, lower-risk way to trade wheat volatility—perfect for sizing into weather-related trades with precision or managing risk in a more granular fashion. Many traders use these contracts to test strategies during seasonal transitions or while responding to forecast-driven setups. 7. Visual Evidence: Price Behavior by Precipitation Category To visually represent our findings, we used box plots to show wheat weekly returns grouped by precipitation category: The shape of these distributions is revealing. High-precipitation weeks not only show lower average returns but also a wider range of possible outcomes—underscoring the role that rainfall extremes play in price volatility rather than just directional bias. We are also complementing this visual with a weather map that shows real-time precipitation patterns in major wheat-growing regions. This could help traders align weather anomalies with trading opportunities. 8. Final Thoughts: The Forecast Beyond Forecasts Precipitation isn’t just an agricultural concern—it’s a market catalyst. Our analysis shows that rainfall extremes, particularly heavy rain, create meaningful signals for wheat traders. The price response is less about direction and more about uncertainty and volatility, which is equally important when structuring trades. If you’re serious about trading wheat futures, don’t just watch the charts—watch the clouds. This article is one piece in our broader series on how weather influences ag futures. Stay tuned for the next one, where we continue to decode the atmosphere’s impact on the markets. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZW1!Education
by traddictiv
SILVER Will Go Lower From Resistance! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for SILVER. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 3,654.7. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 3,536.0 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:XAGUSDShort
by SignalProvider
6