Get started

Commodities

WEEK PLAN|Will This Gold Rally Collapse Into a Liquidity Trap ? Gold remains trapped between high-liquidity resistance and a strong order block below. While short-term bullish structure is forming, the weekly outlook remains complex due to upcoming high-impact events from the Fed and US labour data. Expect volatility and traps in both directions. 🧠 Fundamental Context FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wed 9 July): Market will look for rate cut clues. Unemployment Claims (Thu 10 July): A stronger labour market = stronger USD = bearish for gold. FOMC Member Waller Speaks (Thu 10 July): Any hawkish tone could cap gold upside. 📊 Key Zones Zone Role Notes 3,387 – 3,439 Sell Zone High liquidity, weak highs, ideal reversal trap 3,240 – 3,260 Buy Zone Strong OB, liquidity sweep, aligned with trendline support 3,365 Weekly High May reject or break based on macro catalyst 🛠️ Trade Setups (Entry Zones as Requested) ✅ 1. BUY GOLD Entry: 3,346 – 3,344 Stop Loss: 3,340 TP1: 3,356 TP2: 3,366 TP3: 3,376+ (Open Target) Rationale: Scalping long off micro demand, aiming for a short-term spike above liquidity. ✅ 2. BUY GOLD SCALPING Entry: 3,291 – 3,289 Stop Loss: 3,285 TP1: 3,299 TP2: 3,310 TP3: 3,320+ (Open Target) Rationale: Buy on breakout momentum before hitting higher sell-side zones. ✅ 3. SELL GOLD Entry: 3,389 – 3,391 Stop Loss: 3,396 TP1: 3,381 TP2: 3,371 TP3: 3,361 (Open Target) Rationale: Fade the breakout — fakeout zone targeting liquidity void beneath. ✅ 4. SELL GOLD Entry: 3,349 – 3,351 Stop Loss: 3,355 TP1: 3,339 TP2: 3,329 TP3: 3,319 (Open Target) Rationale: Short off weak rally, playing potential rejection near intraday high. 📅 This Week’s Events Date Event Likely Impact 9 July FOMC Minutes Fed tone → volatility spike 10 July Jobless Claims (233K) Strong number = gold downside 10 July FOMC Waller Speech Additional risk-on/risk-off flows ⚠️ Trading Strategy Use H1–H4 confirmations (CHoCH, BOS, FVG) before entries. Avoid entries 1h before and after red news. Focus on 3,260–3,439 range as key decision area for the week.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EliseLunaTraders
XAUUSD Below 3300 – Buying Opportunity or Trap? Gold Breaks Below 3300 – A Buying Opportunity or Sign of Deeper Correction? 🧭 Weekly Kickoff: Is the Sell-off Really That Dangerous? At the start of the week, gold experienced a sharp drop to 3306 USD, breaking through the psychological 3300 support level and testing the 329x region. However, this isn't necessarily a sign of a sustainable downtrend — it's more likely a liquidity sweep before the market consolidates again for a bigger move. 🌐 Macro Updates Impacting Gold: US inflation continues to ease, providing space for the Fed to loosen policy if needed. FOMC minutes due soon — markets will be closely watching for clues about possible rate cuts. Tensions in Gaza de-escalate temporarily, leading to a slight reduction in demand for safe-haven assets. Trump's new tax bill has been passed, adding pressure to US public debt. US–China trade war may be delayed — reducing short-term geopolitical pressure. In summary, we are in a consolidation phase, with a high probability of a breakout in the coming days. 📉 Technical Analysis – CP Pattern in Focus We are seeing a Continuation Pattern (CP), which generally signals that the current correction is a pause before the trend continues. After rejecting resistance at 3336, gold fell, breaking through the 3323 support and quickly testing the 3303 zone, a key short-term support. If gold breaks below 3293, the next target will be the 3278 USD liquidity zone, where strong buying could emerge. 📌 Key Trading Plan – 04 July 🔵 BUY ZONE 3294 – 3292 Stop Loss: 3288 Take Profit: 3298 → 3302 → 3306 → 3310 → 3315 → 3320 → 3330 🔴 SELL SCALP 3324 – 3326 Stop Loss: 3330 Take Profit: 3320 → 3316 → 3312 → 3308 → 3304 → 3300 🔴 SELL ZONE 3350 – 3352 Stop Loss: 3356 Take Profit: 3346 → 3340 → 3335 → 3330 → 3320 🧠 Market Sentiment Today The market is currently in a consolidation phase, likely trading sideways between 3320 and 3340. A breakout seems likely once the liquidity from the US holiday subsides. ✅ Primary Bias: Look to buy dips into support zones. ⚠️ Alternative View: Only consider selling if price clearly rejects key resistance levels. 💬 What’s Your View on Gold Today? Do you think gold will break through 3390 soon, or is there more room for a deeper correction towards 3270? 👇 Share your thoughts and analysis in the comments below!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
3
Rain or Ruin? Analyzing Wheat Prices During Precip Extremes1. Introduction: When Rain Means Risk for Wheat Traders Rain is life for wheat crops—until it isn’t. In the world of agriculture, water is essential, but extremes in precipitation can cause just as much harm as droughts. For traders in the wheat futures market, understanding this relationship between rainfall and price action is not just useful—it’s essential. Wheat is a crop with a long growth cycle, grown across diverse geographies like the U.S. Plains, the Canadian Prairies, Russia, and Ukraine. Each region has its own precipitation rhythm, and any disruption can ripple through the global supply chain. The question is: can weather signals—especially rainfall—be used to predict market behavior? This article dives into that question using a data-driven lens. We categorized precipitation data and measured how wheat futures returns responded to different rainfall environments. The results? Revealing, and at times, counterintuitive. 2. The Role of Rainfall in Wheat Production Wheat, especially spring and winter varieties, is particularly sensitive to soil moisture levels at key phases like germination, tillering, and heading. Too little rain in early development and the crop can fail to establish. Too much rain close to harvest? Risk of disease, sprouting, and quality degradation. Traders have long known that unexpected wet or dry weeks can trigger speculative surges or hedging activity. But how do these events influence actual futures returns? Before answering that, we need to translate rain into something traders can use: categories based on historical norms. 3. Methodology: Categorizing Rainfall and Measuring Market Response To understand how wheat prices respond to different levels of rainfall, we analyzed weekly precipitation data across global wheat-producing regions. We normalized the data using percentiles: Low Precipitation: Below the 25th percentile Normal Precipitation: Between the 25th and 75th percentiles High Precipitation: Above the 75th percentile We then matched this categorized weather data with weekly returns from wheat futures (symbol: ZW) to explore if price behavior systematically varied depending on how wet or dry a week had been. To test significance, we used a simple t-test comparing the mean returns of low-precip and high-precip weeks. The p-value (6.995E-06) revealed a compelling result: yes, there is a statistically significant difference. 4. Results: High Rainfall, Higher Price Volatility The data confirms that weeks with extreme rainfall—especially those with high precipitation—often align with more volatile wheat price movements. But here’s the twist: while low-precip weeks didn’t consistently show bullish returns, high-precip weeks correlated with negative or erratic returns. That makes sense when you think about harvest delays, rot, and declining grain quality. Traders watching forecasts for excessive rainfall should consider the implications for grain availability and price stabilization mechanisms. This is where speculative plays or hedging via options and standard or micro futures contracts can become especially useful. 5. Interpreting the Volatility: Why the Market Reacts to Rain Why does excessive rain lead to such uneven price behavior? The answer lies in uncertainty. Heavy rainfall often introduces multiple variables into the equation: planting delays, logistical bottlenecks, and downgraded wheat quality due to fungal infections. For example, a wet harvest can reduce protein content, pushing millers to seek alternatives—altering both demand and supply expectations simultaneously. This dual-sided pressure—reduced high-quality yield and uncertain export capability—tends to shake market confidence. Traders respond not just to the supply data but also to how much trust they place in the supply pipeline itself. 6. Futures Contracts: Navigating Risk with Position Size Control Traders looking to participate in wheat price action have two main CME-listed options: Standard Wheat Futures (ZW) Contract Size: 5,000 bushels Tick Size: 1/4 cent per bushel (0.0025) has a $12.50 per tick impact Margin Requirement: Approx. $1,700 (subject to change) Micro Wheat Futures (MZW) Contract Size: 500 bushels (1/10th the size of the standard contract) Tick Size: 0.0050 per bushel has a $2.50 per tick impact Margin Requirement: Approx. $170 (subject to change) Micro contracts like MZW offer a lower-cost, lower-risk way to trade wheat volatility—perfect for sizing into weather-related trades with precision or managing risk in a more granular fashion. Many traders use these contracts to test strategies during seasonal transitions or while responding to forecast-driven setups. 7. Visual Evidence: Price Behavior by Precipitation Category To visually represent our findings, we used box plots to show wheat weekly returns grouped by precipitation category: The shape of these distributions is revealing. High-precipitation weeks not only show lower average returns but also a wider range of possible outcomes—underscoring the role that rainfall extremes play in price volatility rather than just directional bias. We are also complementing this visual with a weather map that shows real-time precipitation patterns in major wheat-growing regions. This could help traders align weather anomalies with trading opportunities. 8. Final Thoughts: The Forecast Beyond Forecasts Precipitation isn’t just an agricultural concern—it’s a market catalyst. Our analysis shows that rainfall extremes, particularly heavy rain, create meaningful signals for wheat traders. The price response is less about direction and more about uncertainty and volatility, which is equally important when structuring trades. If you’re serious about trading wheat futures, don’t just watch the charts—watch the clouds. This article is one piece in our broader series on how weather influences ag futures. Stay tuned for the next one, where we continue to decode the atmosphere’s impact on the markets. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZW1!Education
by traddictiv
SILVER Will Go Lower From Resistance! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for SILVER. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 3,654.7. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 3,536.0 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:XAGUSDShort
by SignalProvider
6
GOLD BUY M15 Gold (XAU/USD) 15-Minute Chart Analysis – July 7, 2025 Trade Setup: The chart shows a bullish trade setup based on a potential reversal from a "Weak Low" support area around 3304. After forming a BOS (Break of Structure) and a small consolidation (highlighted box), price is expected to move higher. Entry: Long position initiated slightly above the consolidation zone. Stop Loss (SL): Set at 3304, just below the recent weak low support. Target (TP): Final target at 3326, where a key resistance level lies. Key Levels: Support Zone: 3304 (Weak Low) Resistance Levels: 3317.5 3222.9 3326.2 (Final Target) Market Structure Notes: CHoCH (Change of Character) indicates potential shift to bullish momentum. Price is expected to form higher highs and higher lows on its way to the target.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Sniperfx05
Falling towards pullback support?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 63.73 1st Support: 56.03 1st Resistance: 71.20 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDLong
by ICmarkets
Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?XAU/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level too ur take profit. Entry: 3,324.16 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 3,344.28 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Takeprofit: 3,295.40 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:XAUUSDShort
by VantageMarkets
Crude Oil Eyes Bullish Breakout – Demand Zone Holding StrongCrude Oil (USOIL) is forming a potential bullish reversal structure on the 1H timeframe, supported by repeated bounces from a well-respected demand zone. Price currently consolidates below the key resistance level with a visible expanding channel, hinting at possible volatility and breakout. 🔹 Trade Idea: I’m waiting for a clear break and close above 66.50 for a valid long entry. The setup remains invalid unless price confirms this breakout. 🔹 Technical Highlights: - Strong demand zone held price multiple times - Formation of higher impulses with retracements aligning well with Fibonacci levels - Market structure suggests a continuation toward upper targets if 66.50 is broken with momentum 🔹 Trade Plan: - Buy Above: 66.50 (breakout confirmation) - Stop Loss: 64.40 (below demand zone and structure support) - Target: 69.00 (near 2.272 Fibonacci extension) ⚠️ Note: No entry unless 66.50 is broken convincingly. Setup favors disciplined execution only on confirmation.
TVC:USOILLong
by ClearTradingMind
WTI Oil H4 | Heading into a pullback resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) could rise towards a pullback resistance and potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 68.28 which is a pullback resistance. Stop loss is at 70.90 which is a level that sits above the 50% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 63.86 which is a pullback support that aligns closely with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:USOILShort
by Tradu
XAUUSD H1 I Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H1 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 3301.42, a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fib projection. Our take profit is set at 3330.92, a pullback resistance. The stop loss is placed at 3274.83, a swing low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:XAUUSDLong
by Tradu
Gold Gains Strength as the Dollar Wobbles – What’s Next?Hello, my dear friends – let’s take a fresh look at gold after yesterday’s moves! At the moment, gold is trading steadily around 3,345 USD as the market awaits tonight’s highly anticipated U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report. Yesterday’s ADP data caused a mild shake in sentiment, showing the first drop in private sector employment in over two years. This immediately fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve could move to cut interest rates sooner than expected — putting pressure on the U.S. dollar and offering support to gold as a non-yielding safe haven. Meanwhile, the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) has slipped to its lowest level in nearly three years, making dollar-denominated assets like gold more attractive to international investors. On top of that, lingering geopolitical tensions and ongoing strong central bank buying continue to reinforce gold’s role as a long-term store of value. From a technical perspective on the H4 timeframe, gold is showing a very tight structure after breaking out of a prolonged downtrend channel. Price is currently consolidating between 3,330 and 3,360 USD, with a clearly defined bullish formation: higher highs and higher lows — a strong signal that the uptrend is starting to take shape again. The key level to watch now is 3,358 USD. If price breaks above this level with convincing buying momentum, I expect gold to enter a new bullish leg toward 3,390 – 3,407 USD, aligning with the Fibonacci 1.618 extension — often a magnet for price during strong trends. On the other hand, if there’s a short-term pullback, the support zone around 3,327 – 3,318 USD will be critical, offering a potential re-entry point for buyers looking to ride the next wave up. This is not a phase for impulsive decisions — but it’s definitely not a moment to be passive either. The breakout could come fast, and only prepared traders will be ready to act.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Smith_TradingFX
9
TRADING KNOWLEDGE – MOVING AVERAGE (MA)The Moving Average (MA) is a popular technical indicator that helps smooth out price data to better identify market trends. MA doesn't predict the future but helps traders clearly see the current direction of the market. 🔍 2 Main Types of MA: 🔔 SMA (Simple Moving Average): The average of closing prices over a set period (e.g., SMA 20 = average of the last 20 candles). 🔔 EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Similar to SMA but gives more weight to recent prices, making it more responsive to market changes. 📈 What is MA used for? 📍Trend Identification: 💡Upward sloping MA → Uptrend 💡Downward sloping MA → Downtrend 📍Trading Signals: 💡Price crossing above MA → Buy signal 💡Price crossing below MA → Sell signal 📍Combining Two MAs (Short & Long Term): 💡Short MA crosses above long MA → Buy signal (Golden Cross) 💡Short MA crosses below long MA → Sell signal (Death Cross)
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RyderForex
GOLD Short From Resistance! Sell! Hello,Traders! GOLD is weaker than we Expected and failed to break The key horizontal level Around 3360$ and we are Now seeing a bearish rejection So we are locally bearish biased And we will be expecting a Further bearish move down Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by TopTradingSignals
7
Looking for catalysts - Gold Outlook July 7 - July 11, 2025All about last week you can find here: FX_IDC:XAUUSD Gold is currently seeking fresh catalysts this week. 🧐 While the economic calendar appears light for this time of year, a lack of economic data doesn't mean nothing is happening. Geopolitical events, especially tariff wars or other flashpoints, remain significant. Are there increasing signs for peace in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas? 🕊️ This week Gold could take advantage from an exisiting reversal head and shoulders pattern and painting pitchfork in the chart shows possibillities for Upside targeting $3400. ## Geopolitical News Landscape 🌍📰 Israel / Iran ⚔️🛑☢️ After fierce clashes in June, a **ceasefire** began June 24. 🇮🇷 Iran's Supreme Leader reappeared July 6, claiming victory 🎤. Tehran has now **banned IAEA inspectors** ❌🔍. Over 900 Iranians reportedly killed ⚰️. 🔮 Outlook: ⚠️ Nuclear tensions growing, diplomacy frozen 🧊. Regional powers remain on high alert 🚨. India / Pakistan 🗻🔫🕌 Tense calm in Kashmir 😐. India launched its sacred **Amarnath Yatra** 🕉️ under heavy security 🛡️. Pakistan killed 30 militants near the Afghan border ⚔️, while China 🐉 admitted sharing intel 📡. 🔮 Outlook: Diplomatic track stays open 🕊️, but **border flare-ups** and water disputes 💧 remain volatile 🔥. Gaza Conflict 💣🏘️🕊️ Israel launched deadly airstrikes ✈️, including one on a beach café ☕🏖️ killing 22. Dozens more died 💔. IDF admitted accidental strikes on aid sites 🚚❌. U.S.-led talks seek a **60-day truce** 🤝. 🔮 Outlook: Ceasefire possible 🛑, but **humanitarian crisis** worsening 🚨🩺. Trust remains fragile 💔. Russia / Ukraine ⚔️ Zelenskyy 🇺🇦 and Trump 📞 discussed new air defense aid 🎯. Russia answered with **massive drone strikes** on Kyiv 🚁🔥. NATO boosts arms shipments 🔫 and backs Ukraine’s domestic weapons production 🏭. 🔮 Outlook: War grinds on ⚙️. No peace in sight, with **global stakes** rising 📈. U.S. / China Trade War 💼📦🔥 With new tariffs looming 📆💣, Treasury said “multiple deals” are near 🤝. Trump claimed a **partial deal with China** 🐉, though tariffs remain high 📊. 🔮 Outlook: More piecemeal deals 🍰, but a **full-scale trade reset** looks unlikely before elections 🗳️. 🌍 Global Trade War 📉🚢💸 Trump’s shifting tariffs 🎯 hurt global growth 🌐. Markets hit record highs 📈 but investment chills ❄️. The 💵 dollar had its sharpest 6-month drop 📉 in decades. 🔮 Outlook: Businesses remain cautious ⚠️. **Supply chains** reroute 🔄. No global rebound without clarity 🔍. Trump vs. Powell 💥🏛️📉 Trump demanded Powell’s resignation ❌📉, accusing him of weak rate policy 📊. Powell held firm 🧊, citing inflation risks 📈. Trump eyes replacements 👀🪑. 🔮 Outlook: Fed independence 🏛️ under fire 🔥. **Rate policy** may get politicized ahead of 2025 elections 🗳️. 📈 U.S. Inflation 🛒💰🧾 Inflation slowed to 0.1% 🐢, but tariffs raised prices on appliances 🔌 (+4.3%) and toys 🧸. Fed projects 3% inflation by year-end 📊. 🔮 Outlook: As **tariffs bite** 🦷, inflation likely to climb 📈. Fed stays cautious 🧐 on cuts. Technical View 📐📈 Analysis Period: May 25 - June 6, 2025 | Forecast: June 7-11, 2025 1. ICT (Inner Circle Trader) Methodology Analysis 🧠 Market Structure Higher Timeframe Bias: The chart shows a clear bullish market structure with higher highs and higher lows from the major low around 3,250. 🐂 Current Structure: Price is in a consolidation phase after reaching highs near 3,370, showing potential distribution. ⚖️ Key ICT Concepts Identified: Fair Value Gap (FVG): Multiple gaps visible during the strong rally from 3,250 to 3,370. 💨 Order Blocks: Significant demand zone around 3,250-3,260 level (major accumulation area). 📦 Liquidity Zones: Buy-side liquidity above 3,370 (recent highs). 💸 Sell-side liquidity below 3,320 (recent consolidation lows). 📉 Market Maker Models: Classic accumulation-manipulation-distribution pattern visible. 🔄 Session Analysis: London Session: Shows strong directional moves. 🇬🇧 New York Session: Continuation of trends with increased volatility. 🗽 Asian Session: Consolidation and range-bound behavior. 🌏 2. Gann Analysis 🧙‍♂️ Gann Angles & Time Cycles: Primary Trend: 1x1 angle supporting the bullish move from 3,250. ↗️ Resistance Angles: 2x1 and 3x1 angles providing resistance around current levels. 🚧 Time Cycles: 7-day cycle showing completion around June 2-3. 🗓️ 14-day cycle suggesting potential reversal window June 7-9. ⏳ Gann Price Levels: Major Support: 3,250 (1/8 level). 🛡️ Current Resistance: 3,370 (7/8 level). 🛑 Next Target: 3,400 (full octave completion). 🎯 Geometric Relationships: Price squared relationship suggests 3,380-3,400 as natural resistance. 📐 Time-price balance indicates consolidation period before next major move. 🕰️⚖️ 3. Fibonacci Analysis ✨ Retracement Levels (from 3,250 low to 3,370 high): 23.6%: 3,341.6 38.2%: 3,324.2 50.0%: 3,310.0 61.8%: 3,295.8 78.6%: 3,265.6 Extension Levels: 127.2%: 3,402.6 161.8%: 3,444.2 200.0%: 3,490.0 Current Analysis: Price has respected the 23.6% retracement level multiple times. ✅ Strong support confluence at 38.2% level (3,324). 💪 Extension targets suggest potential move to 3,402-3,444 range. 🚀 4. Institutional Levels Analysis 🏦 Psychological Levels: 3,300: Major round number providing support. 💯 3,350: Mid-level resistance. 📊 3,400: Next major psychological target. 🎯 Institutional Order Flow: Accumulation Zone: 3,250-3,280 (heavy institutional buying). 💰 Distribution Zone: 3,350-3,370 (profit-taking area). 💸 Breakout Target: 3,400+ (next institutional objective). ⬆️ Volume Analysis: High volume on the initial move up from 3,250. 📈 Decreasing volume during consolidation (typical distribution pattern). 📉 Volume expansion needed for breakout confirmation. 💥 5. Cycle Timing Analysis ⏰ Short-Term Cycles: 3-day cycle: Currently in compression phase. 🤏 7-day cycle: Completed around June 2-3. ✅ 14-day cycle: Due for completion June 7-9. ⏳ Medium-Term Cycles: Monthly cycle: Bullish momentum phase. ⬆️ Quarterly cycle: In expansion phase. 🌟 Cycle Projection: Next major cycle turn expected June 7-9. 🔄 Potential for either breakout or correction during this window. 🤞 6. FORECAST: June 7-11, 2025 🔮 Primary Scenario (60% probability): Bullish Breakout 🚀 Target 1: 3,400-3,410 Target 2: 3,440-3,450 Catalyst: Break above 3,370 with volume. 💥 Timeline: June 7-9 initial move, June 10-11 extension. Secondary Scenario (35% probability): Corrective Pullback ⬇️ Target 1: 3,320-3,325 (38.2% Fibonacci) Target 2: 3,300-3,310 (psychological support) Catalyst: Failure to break 3,370 resistance. 🚫 Timeline: June 7-8 decline, June 9-11 consolidation. Low Probability Scenario (5% probability): Deep Correction 📉 Target: 3,280-3,290 (61.8% Fibonacci) Catalyst: Major risk-off sentiment. 😱 Timeline: Extended throughout the week. 7. Key Assumptions & Risk Factors 🤔 Bullish Assumptions: Continued institutional accumulation at current levels. 🏦 Breakout above 3,370 with confirming volume. ⬆️ Favorable macroeconomic backdrop for gold. 🌍 Weakness in USD supporting gold prices. 💵 Geopolitical tensions maintaining safe-haven demand. 🕊️ Bearish Risk Factors: Profit-taking at psychological 3,400 level. 🤝 Stronger USD due to economic data. 💹 Reduced safe-haven demand. 📉 Technical failure at key resistance levels. 🚧 Central bank policy shifts. 🏛️ 8. Trading Recommendations 💡 Entry Strategies: Bullish Setup: Buy on pullback to 3,340-3,345 with stop below 3,320. 🎯 Breakout Play: Buy break above 3,372 with stop below 3,350. 🚀 Conservative: Wait for retest of 3,324 support area. patiently 🧘 Risk Management: Position Size: Limit to 2-3% of portfolio per trade. 📏 Stop Loss: Always use stops below key support levels. ⛔ Take Profit: Scale out at Fibonacci extension levels. 💰 Key Levels to Watch: Immediate Resistance: 3,365-3,370 🛑 Support: 3,340-3,345 🛡️ Breakout Level: 3,372 🚀 Major Support: 3,320-3,325 💪 9. Conclusion ✅ The XAUUSD chart presents a constructive bullish setup with multiple confluences supporting higher prices. The completion of various cycles around June 7-9 suggests a potential catalyst for the next major move. While the primary bias remains bullish targeting 3,400+, traders should remain alert to the possibility of a corrective pullback to test lower support levels. 🧐 The institutional accumulation pattern, combined with favorable Gann angles and Fibonacci projections, supports the bullish thesis. However, proper risk management is essential given the potential for volatility around key psychological levels. ⚠️ Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by Wick-Sniper
2
Down the road - Gold Outlook June 30 - July 24, 2025FX_IDC:XAUUSD 📰 The past weeks has been a wild ride for gold prices, caught between the fiery conflict in the Middle East and a deluge of crucial economic data from the U.S. 📈 Adding to this, a detailed technical analysis provides a deeper look into gold's immediate future. **Geopolitical Drama Unfolds & Peace Prevails!** 🕊️ ceasefire negotiations. Initially, gold was shrouded in uncertainty 🌫️ due to the Iran-Israel war, with markets bracing for potential U.S. involvement and a full-blown escalation. Daily tit-for-tat attacks between Iran and Israel kept everyone on edge, and the question of U.S. intervention remained a nail-biter 😬, though President Trump did announce a 14-day "timeout". Then came the dramatic twist on June 21st: "Operation Midnighthammer" saw the U.S. unleash bunker-buster bombs on Iranian uranium enrichment facilities. 💥 Short time later, the U.S. declared mission accomplished, stating their goal of destroying these sites was achieved, and no further attacks would follow. Iran's response, "Operation Annunciation of Victory," on the following Monday, involved missile strikes on U.S. military bases in Qatar and Iraq. 🚀 Interestingly, these attacks were pre-announced, allowing for safe evacuations and thankfully, no casualties. 🙏 The biggest surprise came from President Trump as he declared, "Congratulations world, it's time for peace!" 🎉 He then brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which, despite being fragile, largely held, leading to the war's end.🤝 Both nations, as expected, officially claimed victory – a common move to satisfy their citizens. 🏅 Personally, I was genuinely surprised that the U.S.President mediated ceasefire, actually brought the conflict to a close – but it's a welcome outcome! 🙏 **Economic Data & Fed's Steady Hand** 💹🏛️ The cessation of hostilities triggered a steady downward slide in gold prices from June 24th to 27th. ⬇️ This dip initially met some market resistance but it ultimately prevailed, especially with the release of mixed U.S. economic data, which, despite being varied, was generally interpreted positively by the market. The spotlight also shone on the Federal Reserve, with several representatives speaking and Fed Chair Jerome Powell undergoing a two-day Senate hearing. 🎤👨‍⚖️ Powell meticulously explained the Fed's rationale for holding interest rates steady, despite market pressures. 🤷 However, recent whispers suggest the Federal Reserve might actually cut rates in September! 😮 ## Geopolitical News Landscape 🌍📰 India / Pakistan Pakistan rejected claims that it supported militant groups active in Indian Kashmir. India issued a formal protest but reported no fresh border clashes during the week. Outlook 🔮: De-escalation is possible in the short term. However, unresolved disputes over water rights (Indus Treaty) could reignite tensions. Gaza Conflict Heavy Israeli airstrikes killed dozens in Gaza, including civilians near aid centers. The UN warned that U.S.-backed aid systems are failing. Humanitarian corridors remain blocked. Outlook 🔮: Ceasefire talks may resume in July, but success depends on international pressure and safe humanitarian access. Russia / Ukraine Russia advanced 36 sq mi in eastern Ukraine, deploying outdated T-62 tanks. Ukraine reinforced defensive lines, aided by Western military packages. Outlook 🔮: The front remains volatile. Sustained Western support will be key to halting further Russian gains. U.S. – China Trade War A breakthrough deal was signed for China to fast-track rare-earth exports to the U.S. Talks on tech transfer and tariffs continue behind closed doors. Outlook 🔮: A phased de-escalation is possible, but deep trust issues linger, especially over semiconductors and AI. 🌐 Global Trade War Several countries, including Brazil and Thailand, imposed fresh restrictions on Chinese imports, echoing the U.S. stance. Global supply chains remain fragmented. Outlook 🔮: Trade blocs like the EU and Mercosur may take on greater importance as countries hedge against rising protectionism. Trump vs. Powell Fed Chair Powell resisted political pressure, stating rate cuts are unlikely before September. Trump called him “stubborn” and demanded immediate easing. Outlook 🔮: The Fed’s independence is under strain. If Trump wins re-election, major policy shifts could follow. 📈 U.S. Inflation Despite tariffs, core inflation remains elevated. Powell warned of persistent price pressures. Trump insists the Fed should cut rates to boost growth. Outlook 🔮: A rate cut later in 2025 is possible—if labor market data weakens. Until then, inflation will remain politically explosive. ## Technical View 📐📈 **Current Market Context:** Gold plummeted to $3,273.67 USD/t.oz on June 27, 2025, marking a 1.65% drop from the previous day, which confirms the strong bearish momentum. The price action shows a significant retreat from recent highs around $3,400. **ICT (Inner Circle Trader) Methodology Analysis:** * **Market Structure:** The trend is clearly bearish, with a definitive break of structure (BOS) to the downside. * **Order Blocks:** Several bearish order blocks have been identified at prior resistance levels, specifically in the $3,380-$3,400 range. * **Fair Value Gaps (FVG):** The aggressive sell-off has created multiple imbalances, particularly in the $3,350-$3,320 range. * **Liquidity Pools:** Buy-side liquidity above $3,400 has been swept. Sell-side liquidity is now accumulating below the $3,270 lows, which is the current target zone. * **Session Analysis:** The London session showed aggressive selling, followed by a continuation of bearish momentum in the New York session. The Asia session could see consolidation or further declines. * **Smart Money Concepts:** Heavy selling pressure suggests "smart money" distribution. There's been strong bearish displacement from $3,380 down to $3,270, indicating the market is currently in a "sell program" phase. **Gann Analysis:** * **Gann Angles & Time Cycles:** The primary 1x1 Gann angle has been broken, pointing to continued weakness. Key price squares indicate resistance at $3,375 (25²) and support at $3,249 (57²). Daily cycles suggest a potential turning point around June 30-July 1, while weekly cycles indicate continued pressure through early July. * **Gann Levels:** * Resistance: $3,375, $3,400, $3,481 (59²) * Support: $3,249, $3,136, $3,025 **Fibonacci Analysis:** * **Key Retracement Levels (from recent swing high to low):** * 78.6%: $3,378 (Strong resistance) * 61.8%: $3,348 (Key resistance zone) * 50.0%: $3,325 (Psychological level) * 38.2%: $3,302 (Minor resistance) * 23.6%: $3,285 (Current area of interest) * **Fibonacci Extensions (Downside Targets):** * 127.2%: $3,245 * 161.8%: $3,195 * 261.8%: $3,095 * **Time-Based Fibonacci:** The next significant time cluster is July 2-3, 2025, with a major cycle completion expected around July 15-17, 2025. **Institutional Levels & Volume Analysis:** * **Key Institutional Levels:** * Major Resistance: $3,400 (psychological + institutional) * Secondary Resistance: $3,350-$3,375 (order block cluster) * Primary Support: $3,250-$3,270 (institutional accumulation zone) * Major Support: $3,200 (monthly pivot area) * **Volume Profile Analysis:** * High Volume Node (HVN): $3,320-$3,340 (fair value area) * Low Volume Node (LVN): $3,280-$3,300 (potential acceleration zone) * Point of Control (POC): Currently around $3,330 **Central Bank & Hedge Fund Levels:** Based on recent COT data and institutional positioning, heavy resistance is seen at $3,400-$3,430, where institutions likely distributed. An accumulation zone for "smart money" re-entry is anticipated at $3,200-$3,250. **Cycle Timing Analysis:** * **Short-Term Cycles (Intraday):** Bearish momentum is expected to continue for another 12-18 hours. A daily cycle low is likely between June 29-30, with a potential reversal zone on July 1-2 for the 3-day cycle. * **Medium-Term Cycles:** The current weekly cycle is in week 3 of a 4-week decline. The monthly cycle indicates a mid-cycle correction within a larger uptrend. For the quarterly cycle, Q3 2025 could see a major low formation. * **Seasonal Patterns:** July-August is typically a weaker period for gold ("Summer Doldrums"). September has historically been strong for precious metals ("September Effect"), setting up for a potential major move higher in Q4 2025 ("Year-End Rally"). **Trading Strategy & Levels:** * **Bearish Scenario (Primary):** * Entry: Sell rallies into the $3,320-$3,350 resistance zone. * Targets: $3,250, $3,200, $3,150. * Stop Loss: Above $3,380. * **Bullish Scenario (Secondary):** * Entry: Buy support at $3,250-$3,270 with confirmation. * Targets: $3,320, $3,375, $3,400. * Stop Loss: Below $3,230. **Key Events to Watch:** * **US PCE Data:** Fresh downside risks could emerge ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data release. * **Fed Communications:** Any hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve could further pressure gold. * **Geopolitical Developments:** Ongoing global events could trigger safe-haven demand. **Conclusion:** The technical picture for gold suggests continued short-term weakness, with the metal testing its 2025 trend line at $3,290 following last week's rejection at the $3,430 resistance. However, the longer-term outlook remains constructive, given gold's robust performance year-to-date. Key support at $3,250-$3,270 will be crucial in determining the next significant price movement. **Upcoming Week's Economic Calendar (June 29 - July 4, 2025):** 🗓️🌍 🗓️ Get ready for these important economic events (EDT) * ** Sunday , June 29, 2025** * 21:30 CNY: Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 49.6, Previous: 49.5 * ** Monday , June 30, 2025** * 09:45 USD: Chicago PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 42.7, Previous: 40.5 * ** Tuesday , July 1, 2025** * 05:00 EUR: CPI (YoY) (Jun) - Forecast: 2.0%, Previous: 1.9% * 09:30 USD: Fed Chair Powell Speaks * 09:45 USD: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 52.0, Previous: 52.0 * 10:00 USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 48.8, Previous: 48.5 * 10:00 USD: ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jun) - Forecast: 70.2, Previous: 69.4 * 10:00 USD: JOLTS Job Openings (May) - Forecast: 7.450M, Previous: 7.391M * ** Wednesday , July 2, 2025** * 08:15 USD: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) - Forecast: 80K, Previous: 37K * 10:30 USD: Crude Oil Inventories - Forecast: -5.836M * ** Thursday , July 3, 2025** * Holiday: United States - Independence Day (Early close at 13:00) 🇺🇸⏰ * 08:30 USD: Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) - Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.4% * 08:30 USD: Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast: 239K, Previous: 236K * 08:30 USD: Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) - Forecast: 129K, Previous: 139K * 08:30 USD: Unemployment Rate (Jun) - Forecast: 4.2%, Previous: 4.2% * 09:45 USD: S&P Global Services PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 53.1, Previous: 53.1 * 10:00 USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 50.3, Previous: 49.9 * 10:00 USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jun) - Forecast: 68.7 * ** Friday , July 4, 2025** * All Day: Holiday - United States - Independence Day 🎆 **Gold Price Forecast for the Coming Week** 🔮💰 Given last week's market movements, there's a strong likelihood that the downward trend in gold prices will continue.🔽 However, fresh news can always flip the script! 🔄 As of now, I expect gold to dip further to $3255 by mid-next week. Yet, a brief rebound towards $3300 isn't out of the question before a potential drop to $3200 by week's end or early the following week. 🤞 Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by Wick-Sniper
Tariff and oil volatility converge on July 9 Tuesday, July 9 marks a key deadline for two major market-moving events. Tuesday is the official deadline for U.S.–EU trade negotiations. While a full deal is off the table, the EU hopes to secure a last-minute "agreement in principle" to avoid a threatened 50% U.S. tariff on some European exports. President Trump’s history of moving deadlines adds uncertainty. Traders might like to watch for sharp intraday moves in EUR/USD and European equities tied to tariff risk. OPEC’s International Seminar also kicks off on the 9th in Vienna. Energy ministers and CEOs from BP, Shell, and others will speak on oil supply, investment, and long-term strategy. Crude has been volatile in July, and any signs of supply shifts or policy changes could drive WTI and Brent in either direction.
EURONEXT:N100
by BlackBull_Markets