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Interest rate expectations and geopolitics still drive GOLDOANDA:XAUUSD corrected after rising sharply as the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next week increased significantly after the release of US CPI data. CME Group's "FedWatch" tool shows traders see a 98.5% chance the Fed will cut another 25 basis points at its December 17-18 meeting, a significant increase from the 86% chance before CPI data is released. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year in November, both in line with market expectations. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones previously expected this number to increase an average of 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year. Excluding food and energy costs, the US core CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in November and was up 0.3% month-over-month. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones on average expect core CPI to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 3.3% year-over-year. The market is now focusing on today's (Thursday) US Producer Price Index (PPI) data to shed more light on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut roadmap. Geopolitical news once again boosted OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold corrected after approaching the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and temporary upside was limited by this technical level. However, in terms of overall structure, the gold price has enough technical conditions to increase after breaking the falling price channel and bringing the main activity above the EMA21 line. Along with that, the Relative Strength Index also rose above 50, which should be considered a positive signal for the bullish outlook of gold prices. On the other hand, gold is likely to open a new bullish cycle when it breaks above the $2,730 level of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement then the target is the Volume profile POC point, more so the $2,761 level and all-time highs. era established earlier. During the day, the technical outlook for gold is bullish with notable points listed below. Support: 2,700 – 2,693 – 2,676USD Resistance: 2,730 – 2,742 – 2,761USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2741 - 2739⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2745 →Take Profit 1 2734 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2729 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2669 - 2671⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2665 →Take Profit 1 2676 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2681
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Gold Supported by Fundamentals, Testing Key Technical ResistanceTechnical Analysis Gold is trading at $2,719, approaching a critical resistance level at $2,735 (Fib 0.786). A breakout above this resistance could pave the way for further upside toward $2,743 and $2,758, marking significant levels for long-term trend continuation. On the daily chart, the price has held firmly above the 50-day SMA, supported by a bullish RSI, indicating the potential for continued strength. - Key Resistances : - $2,735 (Fib 0.786). - $2,743 and $2,758. - Key Supports : - $2,700 (short-term support). - $2,693 (Fib 0.618). In the short term, gold has encountered resistance at $2,720 and shows signs of a possible pullback. The RSI in the overbought zone suggests that a correction toward $2,700 and potentially $2,693 is likely before any continuation to the upside. --- Fundamental Analysis Gold prices remain near two-week highs, supported by geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and expectations for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy. Markets are now pricing a 95% chance of a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed next week , per the CME FedWatch tool, with a further 22% chance of another cut in January. Key Developments Driving Gold: 1. Chinese Central Bank Gold Buying: The People's Bank of China resumed gold purchases in November, adding 160,000 fine troy ounces to its reserves. This significant move has bolstered global gold demand and added upward momentum to prices. 2. Middle East Geopolitical Tensions: The collapse of the Syrian government and subsequent military actions by Israel have increased investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset. 3. US Inflation Data (CPI): November's CPI data showed a 2.7% YoY increase, aligning with expectations and reinforcing the case for rate cuts. The core inflation rate remained stable at 3.3%. These figures have kept gold's bullish momentum intact. --- Upcoming Data to Watch The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the US, scheduled for release tomorrow, will provide further clues about inflation trends. - Forecasts: - Core PPI m/m: 0.2% (previous: 0.3%). - PPI m/m: 0.2% (previous: 0.2%). - Unemployment Claims: 221K (previous: 224K). Potential Scenarios for PPI: 1. Stronger-than-expected PPI (above 0.2%): Higher PPI could indicate persistent inflationary pressures, potentially boosting the US Dollar and pressuring gold prices lower. In this case, gold may test short-term supports at $2,700 or $2,693. 2. Weaker-than-expected PPI (below 0.2%): A weaker PPI could further strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts, weakening the US Dollar and providing additional upside for gold. A breakout above $2,735 would open the path toward $2,743 and $2,758. --- Conclusion Gold remains strong in the long term, with $2,735 as a critical resistance level. A breakout above this level could trigger a rally to $2,743 and $2,758. However, in the short term, the price is expected to correct to $2,700 or $2,693 before resuming its uptrend. The upcoming PPI report is pivotal and will shape market sentiment ahead of the Fed's rate decision next week. Recommendation Monitor the PPI report and Fed commentary closely. A pullback to $2,700 may offer a buying opportunity, with targets set at $2,743 and $2,758 if bullish momentum persists.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by uPaSKaL
15
Hellena | GOLD (4H): Long to resistance area of 2717.733.Colleagues, the previous forecast is still active, but I decided to make a new one to show in more detail what exactly is going on. I believe that the price is in a five-wave upward movement and now we are expecting a lower and middle-order wave “3”. Therefore, I believe that the upward movement will continue and the price will reach the level of 2717.733. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Hellena_Trade
38
USOIL Bullish Breakout: Wedge Pattern Analysis on H4On the H4 timeframe, USOIL has breakout above a wedge pattern, signaling a potential shift toward bullish momentum. The breakout is visually projected using an orange-colored box, highlighting the zone where the price successfully moved above the wedge's upper boundary. This breakout indicates an increase in buying pressure, suggesting that the price may trend higher in the near term. The next key resistance levels to watch are 71.3 and 72.2, which align with significant historical price zones and are set as profit targets. Caution is advised, as a reversal that pushes the price back into the wedge would invalidate this bullish outlook. It is advisable to place a stop-loss just below the wedge’s upper boundary. Disclaimer: This analysis is part of a trading plan and does not constitute trading advice. Technical analysis is probabilistic in nature and does not guarantee profitability. Always implement proper risk management in every trading decision.
TVC:USOILLong
by DNP-FX
XAUUSD: 11/12 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis Daily resistance 2725, support below 2627 Four-hour resistance 2704, support below 2676 Gold operation suggestions: 4-hour chart bottomed out and rebounded, it is expected that the probability of falling below the 4-hour low of 2675 is not high, then look for opportunities above 2675 to continue to arrange long orders, and there may be opportunities to short if the daily high of 2704 is not broken. Radicals can try it, and admit defeat and exit after breaking the daily high of 2704 From the current 4-hour analysis, the upper short-term pressure focuses on 2700-2720, and the lower short-term focus is on the 2676 first-line support. The operation is mainly based on retracement and long Pay attention to avoid the time of CPI news release to prevent hitting SL due to high market liquidity BUY:2660near BUY:2678near The strategy only provides trading directions. Since it is not a real-time trading guide, please use a small SL to test the signal.
TVC:GOLDLong
by ActuaryJ
GOLD NEXT MOVEDear Friends, Let’s take a closer look and trade accordingly. From the chart, we are witnessing a promising setup as the price has successfully broken out of the consolidation phase, reaching the $2726 level. Theoretically, based on Elliott Wave Theory, the pair is currently moving within Wave 4, a corrective wave following the completion of Wave 3, which closed below the $2722 level. What’s next? The price is likely to test a key liquidity zone, building momentum for a strong Wave 5, targeting $2758—a compelling and significant resistance level. Good luck, and may you achieve abundant profit:)
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trader-Briannnn
Gold → Breaking through channel resistance. New ATH target?Hello everyone! Ben here! Today, gold has officially broken out of the price channel, while the bulls are striving to maintain control, defending the key support level around 2665. This level was formed in the context of a weakening USD after signs of correction. The precious metal is now facing significant growth potential, with the opportunity to distribute prices at local highs in the near future. Macroeconomic factors are playing an essential role in supporting gold prices. Concerns over rising tensions in the Middle East continue to drive safe-haven demand, making gold a highly sought-after asset. Meanwhile, the U.S. jobs report released last Friday has fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might consider cutting interest rates in its December policy meeting, which is generally a positive signal for gold prices. However, gold's growth outlook still faces short-term challenges. Investors are currently awaiting key inflation reports, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). Both reports are expected to provide critical signals for the Fed's monetary policy direction and could create substantial market volatility. From a technical perspective, the main trend remains bullish, but prices are currently testing strong resistance. To reinforce upward momentum, gold needs to break out of this resistance zone and sustain above it. If this happens, prices could quickly move to new highs. However, if prices fail to break through, a retest of key support areas around 2677 (Fibonacci 0.618) and 2663 (Fibonacci 0.5) should be anticipated before the uptrend can continue. Share your evaluations and questions about XAUUSD so we can discuss further!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
1
XAUUSD H4 | Bullish Bounce Off?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 2675.12, which is an overlap support close to the 38.2% Fibo retracement. Our take profit will be at 2720, a swing high resistance. The stop loss will be placed at 2641, which is a pullback support level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by FXCM
Gold Analysis Today DECEMBER 12, 2024 Strong Growth or Collapse?SPDR Gold Trust Gold Fund bought 2.59 tons of gold yesterday, December 11 Important resistance: 2733 - 2740 - 2750 Important support level: 2680 - 2675 - 2700 XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD trading strategy around price area: BUY XAUUSD around 2700-2701 Stoploss: 2695 Take Profit 1 : 2710 Take Profit 2: 2720 Take Profit 3: 2730 “If there is a break through the 2728 area during the day, we should watch to sell around the 2749-2750 area in a long-term channel.” SELL XAUUSD around 2749-2750 Stoploss: 2756 Take Profit 1 : 2745 Take Profit 2: 2740 Take Profit 3: 2733 Note: Always install Stoploss in all cases to be safe!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
ANALYSIS OF GOLD TREND TODAY, DECEMBER 12, 2024: UP OR DOWN?Technical Analysis from the Chart: The price has broken through the previous descending trendline (yellow line) and is now in a recovery trend. Currently, the price is approaching a strong resistance zone at $2,710 - $2,725, an area where selling pressure has been prominent in the past. Key Levels: Main Resistance: $2,710 - $2,725 (previous highs and key Fibonacci zone). Nearby Support: $2,680 (MA200 and Fibonacci 0.618). Strong Support: $2,650 (previous lows and psychological support level). Indicators: RSI: Currently near the overbought zone, signaling a potential price pullback in the short term. Stochastic: In the overbought zone and showing signs of a possible reversal. Price Action Pattern: The price is currently testing a strong resistance zone. If it fails to break through, there is a chance it will correct back to support. Trading Strategy for XAUUSD in the Current Price Range: SELL XAUUSD around the $2,720 - $2,721 zone: Stoploss: $2,726 Take Profit 1: $2,715 Take Profit 2: $2,710 Take Profit 3: $2,700 “If the price breaks above $2,728, look for a sell around $2,749 - $2,750 in a longer-term channel.” BUY XAUUSD around the $2,679 - $2,680 zone: Stoploss: $2,674 Take Profit 1: $2,685 Take Profit 2: $2,690 Take Profit 3: $2,700 Note: Always set a stoploss in every trade to ensure safety! @Henrybillion wishes you a successful trading day!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Henrybillion
1
GOLD just passed $2,700, pay attention to CPI dataWednesday (December 11) on the Asian market, OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery increased again in the short term. Gold price has just surpassed the important milestone of 2,700 USD/ounce, reaching the highest level of the day as of the time this article was completed at 2,703.65 USD/ounce. Attention is turning to the US consumer price index (CPI) today (Wednesday) and the producer price index (PPI) on Thursday, both data will be important in influencing the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates. According to market surveys, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to increase 0.3% in November, with year-on-year increases expected to be 2.7% and 3.3%, respectively. %. Overall and core producer prices in the United States are expected to increase 0.2% month-on-month in November, with year-over-year increases of 2.6% and 3.2%, respectively. CPI data in line with expectations is unlikely to hinder interest rate cuts, but if the data shows inflation progress is slowing, the likelihood of a third consecutive rate cut by the Fed may decrease. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "FedWatch Tool" shows that the futures market expects an 86% chance that Fed Chairman Powell and his colleagues will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at their meeting on August 17-18. /12. In addition, gold prices also skyrocketed when the Chinese central bank resumed gold purchasing activities. Meanwhile, the geopolitical situation plays an important role and still has many potential risks after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was overthrown. Gold is considered a safe investment during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty and tends to appreciate in low interest rate environments. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has initial conditions for a bullish outlook as it broke out of the falling price channel after a long period of sideways accumulation. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index also rose above the 50 level, which should be considered a positive signal for the future growth prospects as it will move towards the 75-100 area. With that, EMA21 which was the previous resistance has now become the most notable support. Gold prices are pushed above the original price level of 2,700 USD, keeping price activity above the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level will provide conditions for a new bull cycle with the target then around 2,730 USD where the Fibonacci retracement is located. 0.236%, more than the Volume Profile POC level. During the day, gold has all the technical conditions to increase in price and is temporarily limited by the original price of 2,700 USD. The notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,693 – 2,676 – 2,663USD Resistance: 2,700 – 2,730USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2721 - 2719⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2725 →Take Profit 1 2714 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2709 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2659 - 2661⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2655 →Take Profit 1 2666 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2671
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
XAUUSD - Gold Monthly TargetOverview: Gold and silver have outperformed most other "safe haven" assets. These precious metals are ending the year with remarkable gains. Investors have flocked to them as hedges against inflation and market volatility, helping to drive their values upward. Price: The Bull trend started back in March! (2040). Nine months of continued bullish price actions and blue candles and the price has topped all the way to 2800. Last month (November) we saw gold drop to 2500 finding support. Today gold is back on track creating higher highs in the intraday timeframes. Monthly: The Cup and handle pattern. On the monthly gold is currently in the cup and handle bull run. Pay attention to the Fibb retracement levels. Gold has already touched the 50% and found support at the .618. With the current volume and bullish momentum, gold could easily find the strength to break higher and reach the target (3500) in the next 3-4 months Monthly Pattern Target: 3560 Key Levels: Resistance: 2750 3150 Support: 2500 2600
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by nikdobii
XAUUSD - 4hr Bum n Run updateLong story short... The market is currently playing inside the zone 2625-2655. (30pip range) Gold should maintain above 2615. a Close below this level counld invalidate the Bump and run pattern and continue with more bearish pressure. Its NFP week and you know the USD has been gaining strength. Wait for the breakout above 2655 before entering another Buy. We need strong bullish candles with high volume to make this setup a low-risk trade. The targets are still the same: Targets: 1 - 2685 (quarter 3 high) 2 - 2710 (target 1) 3 - 2750 (target 2) 4 - ATH
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by nikdobii
2
2024-12-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil futures - Neutral. Having a hard time being bullish inside trading ranges and unexpected moves higher. Volume is utter trash and yet market broke above last weeks high and the bear trend line. Bulls want 71 next but I would not be surprised if we go down to 68 or even 67 again. comment: Daily chart shows the trading range which is still contracting but the very small break above last weeks high is a start for the bulls. Buying at previous resistance inside a trading range is always a bad trade. I’d rather wait if bulls come around big time on a pullback and see if it has strong momentum and can break above 70.5. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 67 - 71 bull case: Bulls made a small higher high and now want 71 next. The rally is not particularly strong and the volume is also atrocious. I don’t have many arguments for the bulls here. Invalidation is below 66.27 bear case: Bulls have not printed more than 2 consecutive bull bars for almost 2 months now. Bears see that, previous resistance 70.5 from last week and still a bear trend line close enough. They have much more reasons to sell this, than bulls have for buying it. Invalidation is above 70.6. short term: Neutral. I wait for one side to gain momentum again but my bar for the bulls is higher than for the bears. I don’t have an opinion on where this goes next. For me it’s 50/50 if we go down to at least 69 or higher to 71. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10 : Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year. current swing trade : Nope trade of the day: Tough. Long was obviously right but there were so many trend lines that could have been resistance, it was much more reasonable to not take the longs than to hope for a breakout above multiple trend lines.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
XAUUSD BuySetupHi everyone. As we broke the structure stronger than previous one with higher volume, so I think this trend is going to continue to meet the weekly orderblock. I think this area is good to set an order. This order has a tight SL, so please consider the risk management. I'll send another setup for this entry in the comment below. don't forget to check it ;) Dear traders, please support my ideas with your likes and comments to motivate me to publish more signals and analysis for you. Best Regards Navid Nazarian
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by NavidNazarian
GOLD → Retest 2720. CPI ahead, what to expect?FX:XAUUSD is coming out of a long consolidation and testing 2688. Bulls are trying to keep the defense above this zone, but the risks are increased by the publication of CPI... Gold was boosted by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and renewed buying of gold reserves by China. Amid looming tariffs announced by Trump and weakening labor market conditions, the US inflation report will be crucial in determining the Fed's easing trajectory in the coming months. Further upside for gold prices hinges on the release of US CPI data, which is likely to set the pace for US Fed action early next year. Technically, gold is heading towards broad range resistance as well as the 2720 liquidity zone. The chances of reaching the target are high, but a sharp approach and high news volatility could trigger a false breakout. Resistance levels: 2705, 2720 Support levels: 2688, 2675, 2658 The CPI data may trigger both a rise in the dollar and a deep correction, depending on the interpretation of the current US economy. Gold may react accordingly, but it all depends on the actual data. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSD
by RLinda
24
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Piptastic day on the charts once again, with our chart idea playing out to perfection!!!! We were able to track and trade the entire move up from Monday confirmed with ema5 lock for each gap target. Yesterdays update finished off with ema5 cross and lock above 2679 opening 2697. - This target was completed perfectly today followed with further cross and lock above 2697 opening 2712, which was also hit today completing this chart idea. We can now move over to our 4H chart idea to continue to track the movement should it decide to push further up, until we share our new 1H chart idea on our Sunday update. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2645 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2645 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2661 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2661 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2679 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2679 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2697 - DONE As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
17
TradeCityPro | WTI Analysis Fundamental and Technical Insights👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel! Let’s step away from the crypto space and analyze West Texas Intermediate (WTI) from both technical and fundamental perspectives. 🌍 Fundamental Overview Supply Dynamics: U.S. shale oil production and OPEC+ decisions are key drivers. Escalating tensions in the Middle East, such as the Israel-Gaza conflict or Iran-related sanctions, pose significant risks to global oil supply. Demand Trends : Economic growth and seasonal fluctuations influence demand, but the rise of renewables signals a gradual reduction in reliance on crude oil. Geopolitical Factors : The Middle East, a hub for major oil producers, heavily impacts markets. Regional conflicts often lead to price spikes due to supply concerns. Macroeconomic Trends : A stronger U.S. dollar and rising interest rates suppress oil demand, while inflationary pressures support higher prices. Recent instability in the Middle East has heightened market volatility, underlining WTI's sensitivity to geopolitical events. 🕒 4-Hour Time Frame In the 4-hour timeframe, WTI has been trending downward, nearing a key daily support level at 66.938, which has held multiple times and may attract buyers, shifting momentum. 📈 Long Position Trigger wait for the 4-hour trendline breakout and trigger confirmations, such as RSI exceeding 73.48. The current 4-hour candle breaking the trendline could signal entry. 📉 Short Position Trigger if the candle is rejected and turns red with strong bearish momentum or breaks below 66.938, it could trigger a sell opportunity in the market. 📝 Final Thoughts This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by tradecitypro
6