GOLD (XAUUSD): Intraday Analysis & Bullish Outlook
As I posted earlier, Gold successfully violated a significant
horizontal intraday/daily horizontal resistance.
Retesting the broken structure, the market continued growing.
The price started to respect the boundaries of a rising wedge pattern.
I believe that we can anticipate a further bullish continuation within that next week.
The final destination for the buyers is 2716 resistance.
With a high probability, it will be reached soon.
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Commodities
Technical Analysis of Spot Gold (XAU/USD) – January 12, 2025The #gold market continues its upward trend, and in lower timeframes, positive signs of further upward movement are visible. Based on the updated chart data, the following analysis is provided:
Overall Market Overview
The 4-hour chart of spot gold prices shows successful attempts to maintain levels above key support zones. The addition of the Ichimoku cloud in this analysis provides further insight into the trend direction. Currently, the price is near the critical resistance level of $2,700, with the market showing a strong inclination to break through this level.
Trend Analysis Using Ichimoku
The Ichimoku cloud indicates a strong bullish trend:
The price is above the Ichimoku cloud, signaling a strong uptrend.
The Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen lines also have an upward slope, providing support for the price.
The gap between the price and the Ichimoku cloud indicates dynamic support around the $2,650 level.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Support Levels:
The first strong support is around the $2,650 range, further reinforced by the Ichimoku cloud.
The second support is observed around $2,620, which is highly significant.
Resistance Levels:
The first resistance lies in the $2,700 range. Breaking this level could lead to an acceleration in the uptrend.
The second resistance is observed at $2,760, a critical level for continuing the bullish movement.
Bullish Scenario
If the price can break above the $2,700 resistance and stabilize in this range, the next bullish targets will be around $2,760. The positive slope of the Ichimoku lines and the overall uptrend increase the likelihood of this scenario.
Bearish Scenario
If the price fails to break through the $2,700 resistance, a price correction toward the $2,650 support level may occur. If this support level breaks, the price could drop to $2,620 or even lower levels.
Summary and Conclusion
Based on the current analysis, the overall gold market trend is still bullish. The $2,700 level plays a crucial role in determining the market’s next direction. Breaking this resistance could push the market toward higher targets, while falling below the $2,650 level may signify the start of a corrective phase.
Recommendation: For traders and investors, closely monitoring the key levels and analyzing trading volumes alongside tools like RSI and MACD can help identify entry and exit points effectively.
USOIL TRADE SETUP ALERT!USOIL TRADE SETUP ALERT!
Market Sell Liquidity Sweep Complete!
Now, we're waiting for:
WEEKLY FVG (Fair Value Gap) RETEST
Strategy:
SELL ENTRY: If market retests above FVG, we'll take a sell entry till FVG.
BULLISH TRADE: If market approaches the bullish FVG, we'll take a long trade.
Get ready to trade!
Weekly Insights: Euro/Dollar and Gold Analysis
Hello, fellow traders! I hope you’re all doing well. Today, we want to share some insights and observations from the past week that might help you navigate the markets.
Euro/Dollar: We’re seeing some outflows in put options with a strike price of $1.05, which are already in the money and have intrinsic value. Additionally, there’s been a resale of put options at the $1.02 strike. This suggests a sentiment shift—at the very least, we might be witnessing a halt in the downward movement. So, keep an eye on this pair, it could be setting up for a bounce.
Gold: On the gold front, there’s been aggressive buying of call spreads with targets around $2950-$3000. However, this seems a bit too straightforward and obvious—buying after a price increase at high levels doesn’t scream insider trading or strong sentiment. It feels more like a speculative play, and honestly, it’s pretty apparent. The sentiment here is Neutral.
GOLD Under Pressure! SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on GOLD and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 2662.9 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 2650.4
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GOLD Technical Analysis! SELL!
My dear friends,
GOLD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 2689.3 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clearshort signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 2658.9
Recommended Stop Loss - 2707.9
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Gold has initially broken through, can it continue to rise?
Gold is currently at a critical technical node, with prices fluctuating around $2,689. From the current trend. Since the bottom of $2,584.83, the price of gold has gradually risen, forming a clear upward channel, with the top and bottom of the channel providing strong support and resistance to the price.
At present, the price of gold has approached the upper edge of the channel, and this position also intersects with the downward trend line. It can be seen that the $2,689-2,710 area is both the top resistance of the upward channel and the strong pressure area of the downward trend line. The breakthrough or obstruction of this technical intersection will have a decisive impact on the short-term trend of gold.
If the price of gold breaks through the suppression of the downward trend line (the key point is $2,719), it will further open up the upside space, with the target looking at the $2,750-2,760 area, and even have the opportunity to reach higher levels. This trend may require strong fundamental support, such as a weaker dollar, increased geopolitical uncertainty, or safe-haven demand caused by a global economic slowdown.
If the gold price is blocked and falls back in the $2689-2710 area, it may trigger a round of adjustments. The short-term target may fall back to the middle track of the rising channel near $2660, and the further support level can focus on the $2615-2600 area. This decline may be driven by the strengthening of the US dollar index, the signal of the Federal Reserve or the improvement of market risk sentiment.
The current gold price has formed a certain consolidation near the key resistance area, showing the hesitation of both long and short sides in the market. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes in trading volume and whether there is a clear breakthrough pattern.
The price structure shows that gold may be close to the overbought area at the current position, which further increases the risk of a correction.
Overall, spot gold is currently at a key choice point in the technical pattern, and both long and short sides are fighting fiercely in the $2689-2710 area. Breaking through the downward trend line will strengthen the confidence of bulls, and if it is blocked and falls back, it may step back on the key support. Traders need to pay close attention to changes in market momentum, and at the same time combine fundamental dynamics for risk management and decision optimization.
Long operation suggestion: If the gold price successfully breaks through the downward trend line (stands firmly above $2,719), you can consider chasing long, with the target set at $2,750-2,760, and the stop loss point at $2,680.
Short operation suggestion: If the gold price is blocked and falls back in the current area, the short order target can be set at $2,660, further looking at $2,615, and the stop loss is set above $2,700.
From the long-term trend, gold is still in a volatile upward channel, but it is necessary to be wary of the suppression of the downward trend line. Breaking through this line will verify the continuation of the bullish pattern, otherwise it may usher in a deeper adjustment.
BRIEFING Week #2 : Beware of the long term TopHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
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Phil
USOIL Will Go Down From Resistance! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 76.573.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 72.081 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
crypto is crypto, but do you need to buy corn? - If the trend line breaks, this is the beginning of a bullish trend.
- a Formulated is Golden Cross Moving Average
- the reason for the rise in corn prices is the decrease in the EU corn harvest in 2024/25. This is the third consecutive year of poor harvest.
If you have anything to add, please write in the comments.
What is an ETF? | The Modern Investor’s Secret WeaponWhy ETFs Are Like a Financial Swiss Army Knife ?
Warren Buffett famously stated that 90% of his wife’s inheritance would go into one simple investment: a low cost S&P 500 index fund, likely an ETF (Exchange Traded Fund). ETFs, which now manage over $13 trillion in assets worldwide, combine the benefits of diversification and simplicity by bundling various stocks, bonds, or other assets into a single investment product.
1. Understanding ETFs
ETFs allow you to invest in a collection of assets that often track specific indices, sectors, or asset classes. Key benefits include:
- Diversification: Gain broad exposure without picking individual stocks.
- Liquidity: Trade ETFs like stocks throughout the trading day.
- Transparency: Daily disclosure of holdings ensures clarity about your investments.
Passive investing with ETFs has surged in popularity over active strategies due to lower fees and higher transparency
2. The Impact of Fees
While ETFs are cost effective, they do charge fees (expense ratios).Even small differences in fees can compound significantly over time, reducing long term returns:
- A 0.05% fee might cost $6K over 20 years on a $100K investment growing at 10% annually.
- A 1.00% fee could cost $112K over the same period.
Thus, keeping costs low is critical, especially for long-term investors.
What qualifies as “low cost”?
- Under 0.10%: Very low, often for funds tracking major indices.
- 0.10%–0.25%: Still affordable, typically for niche or strategy-focused ETFs.
- Above 0.50%: High; these funds require careful evaluation to justify their costs.
3. Leading ETF Providers
Major ETF providers dominate the industry:
- BlackRock (iShares): $3.2 trillion AUM, 452 funds, 0.30% average fees.
- Vanguard: $3 trillion AUM, 86 funds, 0.09% average fees, known for reinvesting profits to lower costs.
- State Street (SPDR): $1.5 trillion AUM, 158 funds, 0.27% average fees, creator of the first US-listed ETF (SPY)
4. Top ETFs by Popularity
Some ETFs hold significant assets due to their simplicity, reliability, and low fees :
- S&P 500 funds (SPY, VOO, IVV): Track the largest US companies
- Total US Market (VTI): Covers small, mid, and large-cap US stocks
- Thematic Funds (VUG, VTV): Focus on growth or value stocks
- Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): Heavy on tech companies like Apple and Microsoft
- Bond ETFs (BND, AGG): Represent the US investment-grade bond market
These ETFs serve as essential building blocks for diversified portfolios
5. Concentration in US Markets
US indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are increasingly dominated by a handful of companies:
- The top 10 stocks make up 39% of SPY and 52% of QQQ.
- Companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon account for 34% of the S&P 500.
While this concentration can amplify gains in bull markets, it also increases vulnerability during downturns.
6. Exploring Specialized ETFs
Beyond broad-market funds, ETFs can target specific regions, sectors, or investment strategies. Choosing the right ETF mix depends on your financial goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. For simplicity, Warren Buffett recommends sticking to an S&P 500 index fund, while globally diversified options like VT are also available.
Final Takeaway
ETFs have revolutionized investing with their low costs, transparency, and accessibility. Whether you're a beginner or a seasoned investor, understanding what's inside the ETF and how it aligns with your strategy is key to building a successful portfolio.
SILVER BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
Bearish trend on SILVER, defined by the red colour of the last week candle combined with the fact the pair is overbought based on the BB upper band proximity, makes me expect a bearish rebound from the resistance line above and a retest of the local target below at 28.676.
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#HBAR easy target coming soon.I had talked about #HBAR couple years ago when price was couple of pennies.
Looking at H4 chart for COINBASE:HBARUSD with same KRI technique, 1.272 extension will be .46 cents and 1.618 extension will be .55 cents with the support at .23 cents
There are lot of positive news for HBAR lately so jump on the wagon before it moons.
Easy TP: .46 and .55 cents with support .23 cents
AUDJPY - Short SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels.
In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D and 1W key liquidity level and left untouched level lower, this indicates on probable distribution Wyckoff range.
But to take more statistically probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and in this case we can notice sign of weakness (reaching the middle of the range), so potentially there is a higher probability to see price lower.
Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Gold to USD (XAU/USD) Analysis - 1-Hour Timeframe
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance Levels:
The $2660 level serves as the immediate resistance near the current price.
Higher resistance levels are located at $2680 and $2700, both of which could act as strong barriers.
Support Levels:
The $2640 level is acting as a key support, currently being tested by the price.
If $2640 breaks, the next support lies at $2620, followed by a stronger support level at $2600.
Trend Overview:
A short-term uptrend has been visible since December 23rd, suggesting bullish momentum.
Currently, the price is correcting around the $2640 level, which might provide a good buying opportunity if the support holds.
Trade Idea: Buy Opportunity
If the price respects the $2640 support level and forms bullish reversal candlesticks (e.g., a hammer or bullish engulfing candle), a buy position can be considered.
Targets:
Target 1: $2660
Target 2: $2680
Stop Loss (SL):
Below $2635 (5 dollars below the key support).
Scenario for Support Break:
If the price breaks below $2640 and stabilizes below this level, it might move toward $2620 or even $2600.
In this case, it’s better to wait for a new confirmation before entering a position.
Conclusion: The $2640 support level is crucial in determining the next direction for gold. A proper stop loss and adherence to risk management strategies are essential for navigating this trade effectively.
GOLD 1H AND 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Smashing finish to the week with our chart ideas playing out perfectly.
After confirming ema5 lock above 2661 earlier this week, we clearly stated 2681, as our next target, which we confirmed again yesterday. This was hit perfectly today completing our target.
We then had ema5 lock above 2681, opening 2697. This was also hit perfectly to the dot just now. PERFECTION!!!!
Our 4H chart below also played out perfectly
EMA5 cross and lock above 2655 on the 4h chart opened 2694, which was hit perfectly also completing this chart idea.
We will now come back Sunday with our updated Multi time-frame analysis, Gold route map and trading plans for the week ahead.
Have a smashing weekend!! And once again, thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Copper Short: Targeting Key Support at $4.17Copper is showing signs of exhaustion after recent bullish momentum, prompting a short setup on the 15-minute timeframe. Price action aligns with a potential retracement toward the $4.17 zone, where a critical support level resides.
Why This Trade?
• The overextended rally suggests a short-term pullback.
• Technical indicators point to weakening momentum, making the $4.17 price zone an attractive target.
Plan:
Manage risk effectively, take partials along the way, and let the trade play out toward support. Always remember: stay disciplined and pay yourself along the way.
XAU/USD Short Trade Setup | Entry 2690.766 | SL 2700 RR: 1:10Executed a short position on XAU/USD with a strategic entry at 2690.766. Using my standard market structure analysis, I identified a solid resistance level and potential downside momentum. Placing a stop loss at 2700 to manage risk and targeting 2593.019 for a solid risk-to-reward ratio. Ensuring a calculated approach with every trade.
THE KOG REPORT - NFPTHE KOG REPORT – NFP
This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price.
We’ve had an extremely decent week on the markets so please take it easy and remember the trade comes after they have made the move. Let them take it to where they want, wait for the exhaustion, identify the reversal, and then look for the trade. Most likely, the best trades come next week!
We have the breakout we were looking for out of the 2650-55 region which has now flipped. The resistance above is sitting at 2680-85 and above that 2695-2700. This level needs to be watched, a RIP here and we could see this come all the way back down into the order region again 2655-60 with extension of the move. This region for us would represent an opportunity to take the long trade back for the shorter capture.
On the flip, if they take this down during the move, we’ll be looking at the levels below shown on the chart, 2660-55 is a key level, our bias stands at 2645 in extension of the move. These levels may give us opportunities to then long back up if the higher levels are untouched!
Although all our bullish targets completed yesterday, we’ll share the Red box levels below as a guide for the intra-day strategy.
KOG’s Bias for the day:
Bullish above 2645 with targets above 2685, 2694 and 2700
Bearish on break of 2645 with targets below 2635
RED BOXES
Break above 2691 for 2700, 2702, 2710 in extension of the move
Break below 2675 for 2668, 2655 and 2645 in extension of the move
The circled question marks on the chart are our hot spots!
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG