GOLD BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
GOLD pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is obviously rising on the 1D timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 2,762.245 because the pair overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Commodities
Gold Options Activity Point to Continuing RallyNot a single macro portfolio manager was fired for adding gold to their portfolio over the last two years. Such has been gold’s stunning performance. Will Gold’s ascent continue?
Narratives and numbers signal unstoppable and solid bull run in gold for now.
BULL CASE REMAINS INTACT AND IS INTENFISYING
This paper will not delve much into fundamentals. We have covered it previously in Gold to Shine Bright on Fundamentals, Seasonality & Sentiments . In that we highlighted the three main forces at play: (a) Continued central bank purchases, (b) Rising consumer demand in China & India, and (c) Trump administration’s fiscal policies favouring gold.
In addition to the above, US Dollar weaponization, De-dollarisation fears, and Tariff tensions, serve as additional tailwinds. TradingView Wizard, Konhow , has comprehensively covered the historical impact of tariffs on Gold in his recent paper and video .
SENTIMENTS HAVE SURRENDERED IN FAVOR OF RISING GOLD
This research note will not dive into the weeds of technical analysis either. TradingView’s Technical Analysis dashboard summarises it all elegantly.
TradingView
Momentum is in favour. Oscillators are neutral indicating little risk of price reversal. Overall, sentiment remains bullish gold.
Gold prices as represented by CME Micro Gold Futures front month contract formed a golden cross on 10th January 2025. Since then, prices are up 8.5% as of 13th February 2025. Current prices are well above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day DMAs.
RSI is in overbought zone. Expect some pull back in gold prices from time to time on profit taking. But the upward trend is undeniable. The MACD shows that Gold momentum continues to be on the rise but with waning bullishness.
Readers can access the entire library of technical ideas focussing on Gold on TradingView’s Gold Ideas Page ideas page .
OPTIONS MARKETS ARE SIGNALLING A SOLID BULL RUN AHEAD
This paper aims to unpack recent activity in CME gold options market and its impact on prices. No contrary signals there either. Options market also signal bullish gold.
QuikStrike is a free-to-use tool for registered participants on the CME Group website. The tool provides a vast range of analytics to guide portfolio managers & traders to better comprehend the underlying market. Each report comes with a helpful user-guide to describe the data covered within the report.
Some key takeaways below:
Open Interest Profile page shows that as of close of markets on 11th February 2025, total call open interest (“OI” for short) stood at 634,815 lots across all expiries and strikes. Aggregate put IO totalled up to 357,305 lots resulting in a put-call ratio (p/c ratio) of 0.56.
Calls are options contract that represent a bullish view. While puts are contracts representing bearish outlook. At 0.56 p/c ratio, there are twice as many bullish positions for each bearish one.
Source: CME QuikStrike
Most Active Strikes allow portfolio managers and traders to analyse top strikes with shifts in open interest. Table below shows top 10 strikes registering the largest change in open interest between 4th February and 11th February.
Starting first with the Calls (left section of the table below), participants have been building up open interest in strikes 4000, 3200, 3250, 4500, 4032, and 3,975.
Call options have also booked reduction in open interest at strikes 3000, 3075, 3100 and 3025. On a net-basis, open interest is up 10,312 lots across these top ten strikes over various expiries this year.
Source: CME QuikStrike
Puts (right section of the table above) shows rising build up in open interest for strikes ranging from 2740 to 2880.
Collectively, this indicates that market participants are rooting for gold prices to rise through USD 3,000/oz and to even rally past USD 4,500/oz. Will that happen? Only time will tell.
Given that risk managers are establishing puts at such high levels point to strong support for gold prices at current levels.
In a nutshell, current prices are not only formidably comfortable but the potential to rise is also highly probable.
Shifting the attention to volatility, the CME Group also offers CVol which is another free-to-use tool. Portfolio managers and traders can visualise implied volatility behaviour on this tool.
Source: CME CVol
The GCVL which is the Gold CVol index shows implied volatility at 17.65 and with a positive skew of 1.08. Implied volatility easing even at an elevated prices indicates that market participants are comfortable at current price levels and do not foresee immediate large price moves.
Skew on the CVol tool is defined as Up Var minus Down Var. Up Var is the likelihood of the price rising while Down Var measures the likelihood of prices falling. A positive skew shows that the market is pricing a higher likelihood of rising prices relative to a down move.
FUND FLOWS INTO GOLD ETF IS UP 47% YOY
Among its rich set of features, TradingView also shows daily ETF fund flows . GLD is the prominent ETF commanding assets under management (AUM) of USD 80.65 billion.
This time last year, GLD ETF showed AUM of USD 54.77 billion. Fund inflows have spiked 47.25% over the past 12 months.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
With fundamentals, sentiment, options market, and fund flows all pointing to a price that is set to rise, this paper posits a long position using CME Micro Gold Futures expiring on 28th April 2025 (MGCJ2025) based on the following entry, exit levels and the reward-to-risk ratio:
• Entry: USD 2,900/oz
• Target: USD 3,100/oz
• Stop: USD 2,800/oz
• P&L at Target (USD per lot): +2,000 ((3,100 – 2,900) x 10)
• P&L at Stop (USD per lot): -1,000 ((2,800 – 2,900) x 10)
• Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2x
Please note that Each Micro Gold Futures contract provides an exposure to 10 troy ounces.
Both standard-sized gold futures (GC) and the newly launched 1-ounce gold futures offer avenues to express bullish sentiment on the yellow metal. This comprehensive suite of gold futures is tailored to enhance flexibility and precision, empowering investors to capitalize on market opportunities effectively.
CME Group lists a raft of products covering a range of asset classes more accessible while also enabling granular hedging for portfolio managers.
Portfolio managers can learn more on how to access these micro products by visiting CME Micro Products page on CME portal to discover micro-sized contracts to gain macro exposures.
In collaboration with the CME Group, TradingView has launched The Leap trading competition. New and upcoming traders can hone and refine their trading skills, test their trading strategies, and feel the thrill of futures trading with a vibrant global community through this paper trading competition sponsored by CME Group using virtual money and real time prices.
The competition lasts another 15-days. Please join the 48,000+ others who are actively honing their trading skills using virtual money. Click here to learn more.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bullish reversalWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 70.40 which is an overlap support.
Stop loss is at 69.20 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support that aligns close to the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit is at 73.32 which is a swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Silver H1 | Bullish rise to extend higher?Silver (XAG/USD) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 32.17 which is an overlap support.
Stop loss is at 31.85 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 32.63 which is a swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to the 70.00 support area.Colleagues, the situation is quite complicated, so I assume that the price is in a combined correction. At the moment I expect the completion of wave “B” in the 77.00 area, then the completion of wave “C” in the 70.00 support area.
Complex compound corrections are always quite unpredictable, so I recommend not to forget about SL and lot calculation.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Gold's Comeback: Buy the Dip or Stay Cautious?Hello everyone! How do you think we should trade gold today?
Yesterday, gold experienced a sharp decline, but it quickly regained its bullish momentum, recovering to $2,915 at the time of writing—marking a 100+ pip rebound within the day.
In the short-term analysis, we can see that gold has broken out of the falling wedge pattern and established a new support zone, as highlighted on the charts. The price moving above the EMA 34 and 89 is a positive sign, indicating bullish momentum.
Based on my technical analysis and personal assessment, in the short term, I continue to favor a buy strategy, targeting a take-profit (TP) level at $2,940, with a stop-loss (SL) at $2,892.
What about you? What’s your outlook on gold today? Drop a comment and let’s discuss!
GOLD (XAUUSD): One More Bullish Confirmation?!
After the release of the yesterday's US news, Gold went up again
Analyzing a 4H time frame, I see a completed inverted head and shoulders pattern.
Probabilities are high that growth will continue.
Goals: 2931 / 2942
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
USOIL USOIL is showing a potential sell opportunity following a breakout of the upward trend on the 30-minute timeframe. This signals a possible shift in momentum toward the downside.
Trade Setup:
🔻 Sell Entry Zone: 73.000 – 73.300
🔻 Resistance Level: 73.700 (Key level to watch for invalidation)
Target Levels:
✅ Target 1: 72.300
✅ Target 2: 71.670
✅ Target 3: 70.780
If price respects the resistance zone and fails to break above 73.700, we could see a continuation to the downside toward the listed targets. Confirmation from price action will strengthen the setup before executing trades.
XAUUSD M15 I Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is currently at our sell entry at 2921.35-2919, a pullback resistance close to the 61.8% Fibonacci projectio and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Our take profit will be at 2909.26, a pullback support.
The stop loss will be placed at 2931.62, above the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au
Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Gold price stabilizes at 2900, will test historical highs againGold rose sharply to 2909 in the late trading, breaking through the 2900 mark and closing stable. The daily line rebounded and closed. Gold returned to the long structure channel. After the daily line pulled back to the MA5/7-day moving average, the NY market closing price stood above the 2900 mark again. The moving average still remained open upward, and the price ran along the middle and upper track of the Bollinger Band channel!
In the short-term four-hour chart, gold retreated and tested the lower track of the Bollinger Band at 2865/63, forming a V-shaped reversal. With the reversal of the price, the MA10/7-day moving average re-formed a golden cross and the price closed above the middle track of the Bollinger Band at 2897. The RSI indicator retreated to the 50 value of the middle axis and then stabilized and turned upward!
The hourly moving average opened upward and the price extended the MA10-day moving average upward. In intraday trading, the main thing is to buy at low prices during callbacks, and secondly, consider selling at high prices! The overall rhythm is to buy at low prices during intraday pullbacks, and then sell after the European and American markets hit the key resistance level or historical high!
Last night's CPI data still failed to play a key role in the gold market. Under the premise of a big negative, gold only fell rapidly and then pulled back. The market volatility caused by the data did not continue! Although the CPI data is negative, the price of gold has bottomed out and rebounded by more than 30 US dollars. Bulls still hold on to the key position. On the market, gold looks more like it has rebounded after the last wave of bottoming! In the short term, the bulls are still quite strong!
The current price is still above the short-term moving average, and there is no condition for the top. In the short term, gold is just adjusting and has not broken down. It will naturally continue to rise after the adjustment. This clarifies the direction of our future layout. In the later stage, we will continue to buy when the opportunity arises. The lower point is still focused on the 2886 point. There are many false breakthroughs in the market recently. Conservative operation points can be selected near 2880!
Key points:
First support: 2893, second support: 2886, third support: 2876
First resistance: 2916, second resistance: 2923, third resistance: 2936 Operation ideas:
BUY: 2886-2889, SL: 2878, TP: 2910-2920;
SELL: 2925-2928, SL: 2937, TP: 2910-2900;
COTTON Cash CFD Commodities Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Thieves, 🤑 💰🐱👤🐱🏍
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the COTTON Cash CFD Commodities Market market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise placing Place Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at the recent / nearest low level Using the 2H timeframe (65.700) swing trade basis.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯:
1st Target - 68.000 (or) Escape Before the Target
Final Target - 71.000 (or) Escape Before the Target
Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
COTTON Cash CFD Commodities Market is currently experiencing a bullish trend,., driven by several key factors.
🌳Fundamental Analysis
Supply and Demand: Global cotton production is expected to decline by 1.5% in 2024-25, while consumption is forecasted to increase by 2.5%.
Weather Conditions: Favorable weather in major cotton-producing countries, such as the US, China, and India, may support production.
🌳Macroeconomic Analysis
Global Economic Growth: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global economic growth to slow down to 3.2% in 2024, which may impact cotton demand.
Trade Tensions: Ongoing trade tensions between the US and China may influence cotton trade and prices.
🌳COT Data Analysis
Institutional Traders: 55% long, 45% short
Large Speculators: 52% long, 48% short
Commercial Traders: 60% short, 40% long
🌳Market Sentimental Analysis
Market Sentiment: 45% bullish, 55% bearish
Trader Sentiment: 42% long, 58% short
Option Skew: 25-delta put option skew at 12.5
🌳Positioning Data Analysis
Bullish Trend: 40% likely.
Bearish Trend: 60% likely.
Neutral Trend: 10% likely.
🌳Overall Outlook
However, some analysts predict a bullish continuation, targeting 71.000. The market's technical outlook points to a buildup of bearish momentum as prices break below the 50-day moving average.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
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People still want to invest in gold.World gold prices at times dropped sharply when inflation data in the US heated up. Specifically, the consumer price index (CPI) in January 2025 increased by 0.5%, higher than the forecast increase of 0.3%.
This information has reinforced the message of the US Federal Reserve (FED) not to rush to reduce interest rates due to the unstable economy.
"Higher-than-expected CPI in the US put pressure on gold prices and market expectations for any interest rate cuts were almost extinguished."
The recovery of world gold prices from lows in the past two days shows that investors continue to favor having a safe asset to combat inflationary pressures.
Gold and Silver Out of Sync-Extreme Sentiment and Runaway Movesgold and silver futures chart analysis and why gold may no longer predictably be used to time the silver moves at this period in time; though there are several ways for silver to reach 37-43 and ultimately 50, as gold is likely set to overshoot 3000.
Trade Idea: XAUUSD Short (SELL STOP)Technical Analysis:
1. Daily Chart:
• RSI at 76.04 is in the overbought territory, indicating a potential reversal.
• MACD shows bullish momentum but is at a high level, suggesting a possible pullback.
• The price has reached a key resistance area around 2905.74 after a strong bullish run.
2. 15-Min Chart:
• RSI at 60.94 is approaching overbought conditions.
• MACD shows weakening bullish momentum, hinting at a potential reversal.
• Price has made a lower high compared to the previous peak, indicating bearish divergence.
3. 3-Min Chart:
• RSI is neutral but showing signs of divergence.
• MACD is flattening, suggesting momentum is fading.
• Price action shows a failure to break above the recent high.
Fundamental Analysis:
• Gold is at a historically high level, increasing the probability of profit-taking and a corrective pullback.
• Recent bullish momentum may face resistance due to overbought technical indicators.
• There are no significant fundamental drivers supporting a continued rally at this resistance zone.
Trade Details:
• Entry: 2905.00 (Near the resistance level, anticipating a reversal)
• Stop Loss (SL): 2915.00 (Above the recent high, to avoid false breakouts)
• Take Profit (TP): 2885.00 (Key support area and maintaining a 2:1 RRR)
Reasoning:
• The overbought RSI on the Daily and 15-min charts suggests limited upside potential.
• The resistance at 2905.74 aligns with historical levels, increasing the likelihood of a reversal.
• Bearish divergence and fading momentum support a short position with a favorable risk-reward setup.
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
2 Tale of Commodities: US Crude $USOIL and $COPPERUS Crude Oil is stuck in a long consolidation pattern with the price stuck between 85 $ and 65 $. With Crude Oil unable to break the sideways consolidation pattern Dr Copper is making new highs in a recent month. On the weekly price chart of the world’s most traded commodity i.e. Crude Oil where we see a consolidation for more than 12 months. With new US administration the Crude output is estimated to go up, which will put downward pressure on the Crude Prices $USOIL. TVC:USOIL prices will most probably remain range bound within the 0.612 and 0.5 Fib retracement levels with prices ranging between 80 $ and 65 $.
But we see the prices of Dr. Copper remain in a bullish trend over the last 5 years. At a Macroeconomic level CAPITALCOM:COPPER prices are a leading indicator of the strength of the economy. With Stock market index making new highs across markets CSEMA:S&P , IG:NASDAQ , TVC:DEU40 and macro economy doing well, CAPITALCOM:COPPER prices are expected to remain strong.
So Long CAPITALCOM:COPPER , neutral $USOIL.
USOIL 1H Analysis: Bullish Breakout or Reversal?📊 WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) 1H Chart Analysis 🛢️🚀
Current Market Status
Open: 73.33
High: 73.36
Low: 73.25
Close: 73.26 (-0.11%) 🔻
200 EMA: 72.40
Key Observations
✅ Strong Uptrend 📈
Price is trading above the 200 EMA (red line), indicating bullish momentum.
Recent candles show higher highs and higher lows, confirming upward movement.
✅ Consolidation Zone 📊
Price is currently in a range (orange box), suggesting a potential breakout.
Market is forming small candles, indicating indecision before a bigger move.
✅ Projected Breakout 🚀
The chart shows an anticipated bullish breakout above $74.00 - $74.85 target area (gray box).
If the price breaks above resistance, it may rally towards the next psychological level $75.00+.
❌ Risk Zone (Stop Loss Area) ⚠️
Support zone (bottom of the orange box) at $72.78 - $73.15.
If price breaks below this level, a bearish reversal could happen.
Trading Outlook
💡 Bullish Bias 📈: Look for a breakout above $73.50 - $74.00 for a long entry.
⚠️ Bearish Reversal Risk: A break below $72.78 may invalidate the bullish setup.
🔥 Potential Move:
🚀 Upside Target: $74.85 - $75.00+
🛑 Stop Loss: Below $72.78
Gold Analysis – Potential Pullback Within Ascending ChannelKey Observations:
Current Price: $2,900.48
Recent High: $2,907.29
200 EMA (Red Line): $2,758.59 (Strong support level)
Projection: Price may correct lower towards the channel’s lower boundary (~$2,875)
Analysis:
📊 Short-Term Bearish: A pullback could happen before further upside if the trend holds. If price breaks below the channel, a deeper correction towards the 200 EMA might follow.
🔍 Trading Idea: Traders might look for buying opportunities at the lower trendline (~$2,875-$2,880) if price shows support.