DXY.GBPUSD.GOlD.Day 4 2025.No major news with today being a bank holiday in the US which affects the DXY ( Dollar Index).I do not expect sharp moves heading into the NY session with majority of the big players waiting for tomorrow's financial readings so as to understand better the current economic health in the states.Today looks like a continuation of yesterday's trend with the dollar performing fairly good.
We are currently testing fresh lows in this pair which has been in a downtrend since turn of November.Looking to test the previous low which was broken @ 1.23200.Price currently at 1.22700 at time of writing.
After a stellar year for Gold with the precious metal gaining more than 5000 pips it's time for a fresh year.We have been ranging in the 2600-2700 region for the past one month and if prices are to react soon then we need to breakout of the orderblock above.Waiting for NFP data tomorrow to breakout and get fresh moves for the coming week.Price @ 2665 at time of writing...break above 2670 takes us to 2686.
Commodities
DXY.GBPUSD.GOlD.Day 4 2025.No major news with today being a bank holiday in the US which affects the DXY ( Dollar Index).I do not expect sharp moves heading into the NY session with majority of the big players waiting for tomorrow's financial readings so as to understand better the current economic health in the states.Today looks like a continuation of yesterday's trend with the dollar performing fairly good.
We are currently testing fresh lows in this pair which has been in a downtrend since turn of November.Looking to test the previous low which was broken @ 1.23200.Price currently at 1.22700 at time of writing.
After a stellar year for Gold with the precious metal gaining more than 5000 pips it's time for a fresh year.We have been ranging in the 2600-2700 region for the past one month and if prices are to react soon then we need to breakout of the orderblock above.Waiting for NFP data tomorrow to breakout and get fresh moves for the coming week.Price @ 2665 at time of writing...break above 2670 takes us to 2686.
TORXF breaking out for short term upside to 23 Hello Everyone,
Have spotted a bullish pattern on the chart that can take the prices to 23 in the short while.
Points to note:
> Breaking out from Symmetrical Triangle
> Forming rectangle pattern
> Rising volumes on the breakout.
> Hammer spotted
Important levels:
Support: 19.4 (lower trendline of the triangle)
Resistence: 23 (supply zone confirmed twice previously)
Entry Levels: 20-20.25 (weekly close above the triangle)
Exit Levels: 19.3 or trail with EMA 100 once it breaches 21 levels.
Risk to Reward: Optimal Entry 20 – Target 23 = Almost 4x Reward to Risk
WTI - The fate of oil with Trump's policies!WTI oil is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour time frame and is moving in its upward channel. In case of a downward correction towards the demand zone, the next opportunity to buy oil with a suitable risk reward will be provided for us.
Being in the supply zone of oil will provide us with the possibility of selling it with reimport at a suitable risk.
The price of US crude oil futures (WTI) reached $75 per barrel, marking its highest level in the past three months. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), US oil inventories dropped by 4 million barrels last week. If this reduction is confirmed by official data, inventories would reach their lowest levels since 2014. The severe cold in the United States has increased fuel demand and heightened risks of production disruptions, while Europe is also facing harsh winter conditions.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s tighter sanctions on Iran, combined with a global supply reduction and persistent cold weather, could pave the way for further increases in oil prices.
Last year, crude oil prices declined due to weak demand from China and oversupply. Market analysts predict that oil prices will remain under pressure in 2025. In its November report, the International Energy Agency projected that global oil demand would grow by less than one million barrels per day in 2025, a significant decline compared to the two-million-barrel-per-day increase seen in 2023.
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) forecasts that Brent crude prices will drop to $70 per barrel this year due to expectations of increased oil supply from non-OPEC+ countries, which could offset global consumption growth.
In a December note, BMI stated that the global oil market would likely face an oversupply in the first half of 2025 as new and substantial production from the US, Canada, Guyana, and Brazil enters the market. However, if OPEC+ implements its voluntary production cut plans, this oversupply could exert even more downward pressure on prices.
BMI also highlighted that the outlook for global demand in 2025 remains unclear, stating, “Global demand for oil and gas continues to face uncertainty, with sustained economic growth and rising fuel consumption potentially offset by the impacts of trade wars, inflation, and declining demand in developed markets.”
Additionally, the recent disruption of Russian gas flows to several European countries by Ukraine on the first day of the new year has added further uncertainty to global markets. As long as this situation persists, gas prices are expected to remain elevated. Citi Bank also noted that colder weather in the US and Asia during the remaining winter months could keep prices at high levels.
According to the Financial Times, Donald Trump, who will assume office on January 20, is set to take control of one of the most powerful economic governance tools, capable of significantly enhancing America’s influence abroad. This tool is unmatched since the Cold War.
However, the US economic framework remains flawed due to poor coordination and conflicting political priorities, presenting Trump with significant challenges in developing and implementing it. Unlike Joe Biden’s efforts to create a multifaceted geopolitical approach similar to China’s, the US economic framework suffers from issues in coordination and goal-setting.
SILVER Will Go Higher From Support! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for SILVER.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 30.244.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 31.757 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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WTI Oil H4 | Falling towards an overlap supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 72.65 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 71.20 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support.
Take profit is at 74.85 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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GOLD SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
Bearish trend on GOLD, defined by the red colour of the last week candle combined with the fact the pair is overbought based on the BB upper band proximity, makes me expect a bearish rebound from the resistance line above and a retest of the local target below at 2,630.641.
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Gold H4 | Overlap resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementGold (XAU/USD) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 2,674.08 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 2,699.00 which is an overlap resistance that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 2,631.36 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Hellena | GOLD (4H): SHORT to the support area (2540).Colleagues, the previous forecast has gone stale and I decided to take a fresh look.
Waves are redrawn, but the target remains the same - the support area 2540.100. This is the minimum of wave “W” of the senior order.
In addition, before starting the upward movement the bulls need to gain strength. This means that the combined correction is still in progress.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
World gold prices may go up even more.Gold held steady after a strong rally in the previous session amid President-elect Donald Trump’s insistence that US interest rates need to be cut further and China’s second consecutive month of gold purchases.
Gold’s rally eased slightly after the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released a report showing rising prices in the service sector. Accordingly, the ISM service sector price index rose sharply from 58.2 points last month to 64.4 points in December.
Inflation in the US has recently been forecast to increase again, making the US Federal Reserve (Fed) more cautious with the ongoing interest rate cut cycle.
The stronger USD has put pressure on gold. The DXY index jumped from 108.15 points at the same time of the previous session to 109.24 points.
GOLD hits 4-week high, eyes on NFP and Trump inaugurationOANDA:XAUUSD hit a near four-week high, although minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting suggested it could take a more hawkish stance as inflationary pressures continue to mount.
As of the time of writing, spot gold is currently trading at around 2,659.78 USD/ounce. It rose to yesterday's high of $2,670.01, its highest since December 13.
It's worth noting that the previously released December private jobs report was weaker than expected, giving the market some confidence that the Federal Reserve may not be too cautious in cutting interest rates this year. .
ADP's national jobs report showed the U.S. economy added 122,000 private-sector jobs last month, while economists had expected a gain of 140,000.
A separate report from the Labor Department showed 201,000 people filed for unemployment benefits last week, below expectations of 218,000.
The more important factor is the US nonfarm payrolls data released on Friday, which is expected to change 163,000 jobs; Any data significantly higher than this number will have a negative impact on gold.
Markets will now be fully focused on the US Nonfarm Payrolls Data and Donald Trump's January 20 inauguration, where they expect Trump to announce a series of policy initiatives.
Minutes from the Fed's Dec. 17-18 meeting showed that officials expect inflation to ease this year but acknowledged the risk of continued price pressures, especially as they assess the potential impact from Trump's policy.
Trump's proposed tariffs could fuel inflation in the US, complicate the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates and could pressure gold prices.
However, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said inflation will continue to decline in 2025 and allow the central bank to lower interest rates further, albeit at an uncertain pace.
Gold is considered an inflation hedge, but high interest rates have reduced the appeal of this non-returning asset, and in contrast to a low interest rate environment, gold will be the top choice.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is still temporarily limited by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level, although yesterday's trading day there were times when it briefly jumped above this level.
However, overall, the trend is still neutral with price movements gradually moving towards the top of the purple price triangle.
However, with the current position, gold has conditions to increase in price with support from EMA21, POC Volume profile and the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level. In the event that gold breaks the $2,664 level it is likely to increase further with a target then around $2,693 in the short term, a 0.382% Fibonacci retracement point.
During the day, neutral bias with bullish positioning conditions will be brought into focus again by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,634 – 2,640USD
Resistance: 2,664 – 2,693USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2683 - 2681⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2687
→Take Profit 1 2676
↨
→Take Profit 2 2671
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2637 - 2639⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2533
→Take Profit 1 2644
↨
→Take Profit 2 2649
Market analysis, waiting for a breakthroughAfter falling from 2790 to 2536, gold has been running in a contracting triangle pattern with gradually falling highs and gradually rising lows. After nearly two months of consolidation, the current market has reached the end of the triangle. No matter which direction the market breaks in the future, there will be a good unilateral market. Please pay attention to whether the non-agricultural data on Friday and the CPI inflation data next week will form a breakthrough opportunity.
Although gold broke through the new high yesterday, it still did not stand firm but fell back and broke the high again. Then the high point did not turn into support and still formed suppression. Gold is expected to form a triple top structure in 1 hour. Gold fell under pressure at 2670 yesterday, waiting for 2670 to continue selling at highs!
First support: 2651, second support: 2642, third support: 2626
First resistance: 2669, second resistance: 2676, third resistance: 2685
Operation ideas
BUY: 2646-2648, SL: 2637, TP: 2670-2680;
SL: 2668-2670, SL: 2679, TP: 2650-2640;
Potential bullish reversal?WTI oil (XTI/USD) has reacted off the pivot which could indicate a double bottom pattern which might lead to a potential price to the the 1st resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 72.98
1st Support: 71.99
1st Resistance: 74.22
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
HTF Directional Bias for CL
I like the fact that price traded higher into a premium and found rejection off the Volume Imbalance 50% CE level as it clears the BSL above the PDHs.
Currently price is trading inside the wick from the Mon 06 Jan 2025 and looks to have reached as low as the 25% quadrant level.
My bias for CL is Bearish as I am looking at the two PDLs in discount above the D BISI which should act as a draw for price to reach lower and clear that SSL at 73.11 and 72.70 From there I could expect price to dip into the D BISI and reject possibly off the high or 50% CE level.
Heading into 127.2% Fibonacci resistance?The Gold (XAU/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 2,676.20
1st Support: 2,644.09
1st Resistance: 2,700.39
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
CRUDE OIL IN H4 DOUBLE TOP, WILL PRICE REVERT TO ITS MEAN?With a weakening crude oil price and double top created on H4, will this cause the price of the commodity to fall and revert to its mean?
N.B!
- USOIL price might not follow drawn lines . Actual price movement may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#usoil
#crudeoil
#wti
#brentoil
Potential bullish rise?The Silver (XAG/USD) has reacted off the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 29.85
1st Support: 29.50
1st Resistance: 30.70
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
LET THE BULLISH BREAKOUTS CONTINUE!!!!I tend to Thrive in a Trending market. And these are moves I have been waiting for. Looking like Gold will continue to push bullish and make new highs. Bears are trying to push price down but it is not working. Everything is balanced in the area it is in. So price and easily break out and continue with its trend.
XAG/USD (Silver) Wedge BreakoutThe XAG/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Wedge Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Wedge After Confirmation.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 29.42
2nd Support – 29.04
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Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower. On the daily chart, the MACD has fallen below the zero line, signaling continued selling pressure. If the 60-day moving average support level is broken, it would be prudent to prepare for a drop toward the monthly 5-day moving average and potentially the 120-day moving average, depending on market conditions.
However, with the U.S. stock market closed today and the futures market closing early, trading is expected to be light, and the trend direction will likely become clearer after Friday’s non-farm payroll data release. On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and Signal lines have moved below the zero line, indicating stronger selling pressure. Sell-side strategies are recommended, and given the early market closure, taking quick profits would be advisable.
Oil
Oil faced resistance near its previous high and closed with a bearish candle. Due to the rapid surge toward its previous high, a short-term correction appears inevitable. Maintaining support at the 240-day moving average will be crucial. The need to align short-term moving averages such as the 20-day and 60-day with current price levels suggests a period of price and time correction is likely.
On the 240-minute chart, a long upper wick has formed, resembling the head of a head-and-shoulders pattern. A neckline could form near the 240-day moving average, potentially leading to a rebound that forms the right shoulder. Given the wide divergence between the MACD and Signal lines from the zero line, another attempt at an upward move seems plausible. Buying on dips near key support levels is the preferred strategy.
Gold
Gold closed higher. The daily chart indicates a consolidation phase within a range, and market conditions suggest that trends will become clearer after Friday’s non-farm payroll data. Currently, a buy signal is visible on the daily chart, meaning any downward move may require a sharp decline, potentially driven by Friday’s data or next week’s CPI report.
On the 240-minute chart, the buy signal remains intact. Buying on dips is advisable, although the divergence between the MACD and Signal lines is relatively small. For gold to gain momentum, a significant breakout with a strong bullish candle would be essential. For now, range-bound strategies are recommended, favoring selling at highs rather than chasing prices upward.
Today's Market Notes
The U.S. stock market is closed today, and the futures market has an early close. With reduced volatility, a mixed and range-bound market is expected. Please trade with caution and aim for success!
■ Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 21,270 / 21,190 / 21,155 / 21,065 / 20,990
-Sell Levels: 21,410 / 21,500 / 21,550
Oil - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 72.80 / 71.90 / 71.00
-Sell Levels: 73.60 / 74.40 / 74.80 / 75.20
Gold - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 2,670 / 2,665 / 2,661 / 2,654 / 2,649
-Sell Levels: 2,686 / 2,693 / 2,704 / 2,710
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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