Gold📌 🔻 Sell Scenario (If Price Stabilizes Below 2900)
Entry: Below 2885
Stop Loss: Above 2905
Target 1: 2855
Target 2: 2830
Target 3: 2800
Success Probability: 75% (High probability due to overbought conditions and strong resistance)
Summary
✅ Key Resistance Zone: 2942.65 - 2952.88
✅ Key Support Zone: 2850 - 2825
✅ Primary Scenario: Price correction towards 2850 - 2825 before continuing the uptrend
✅ Alternative Scenario: If 2942 breaks, a rise towards 2975 - 3000 is likely.
Commodities
POWELL SPEECH AND XAUUSDPowell’s Testimony Today: What It Means for Gold
Gold is trading at record highs, breaching $2,942/oz, as markets gear up for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress today. His remarks will likely set the tone for gold and broader market movements in the coming weeks.
What’s Driving Gold Right Now?
1️⃣ Safe-Haven Demand: Uncertainty around U.S. trade policies, including new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, has pushed investors toward gold as a hedge against economic turbulence.
2️⃣ Dollar Strength vs. Gold: A stronger dollar can weigh on gold prices, while dovish signals from the Fed typically weaken the dollar, supporting gold.
3️⃣ Inflation Risks: Rising inflation expectations due to tariff-driven cost pressures may also influence gold, which is traditionally seen as an inflation hedge.
What to Expect from Powell’s Testimony
Powell’s testimony is critical because it will give markets a clearer view of how the Fed plans to navigate the current economic challenges.
📊 Scenario 1 – Dovish Signal:
If Powell emphasizes patience in rate adjustments, focusing on the need for stability amidst trade policy uncertainties, gold could rally further. A dovish tone would likely weaken the dollar and increase demand for gold as a safe haven.
📊 Scenario 2 – Hawkish Signal:
If Powell shifts the narrative toward combating potential inflationary pressures, it could signal a more aggressive Fed stance. This might strengthen the dollar and lead to a pullback in gold prices.
Why This Matters for Traders
Gold is at a critical inflection point, and Powell’s tone could either reinforce the current uptrend or trigger a correction.
Watch how the market reacts to his comments on inflation, tariffs, and economic risks. His stance could influence gold’s direction not just today but for weeks ahead.
Key levels to watch: $2,950 (immediate resistance) and $2,900 (support). A breakout above resistance could open doors to new highs, while a break below support might signal short-term bearish momentum.
Stay tuned and be prepared for potential volatility. Powell’s testimony is one of those market-moving events that traders simply cannot ignore.
#gold #Fed #trading #Powell #forex #marketupdate
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Tariff policy can increase inflation in the USDespite turning down today, world gold prices still maintain an upward trend due to concerns about global trade conflicts provided by US President Donald Trump's new tax regimes.
Gold price on February 12: Suddenly plummeted, buying price of gold pieces decreased by 1.3 million VND/tael photo 2
World gold price chart on December 2. (Photo: kitco.com)
Currently, gold is still affected by tariffs and statements by US Federal Reserve Chairman (FED) Jerome Powell.
US President Donald Trump's announcement of 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, produced without exceptions or exemptions, has raised the stakes on conflicting trade stocks.
The FED Chairman said that the FED is in no hurry to cut interest rates when the economy is still strong and inflation is still above the target level of 2%.
🔥 GOLD SELL 2890 2892 🔥
✔️TP1: 2880
✔️TP2: 2870
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫 SL: 2901
Silver Steady Amid US Tariffs, China Retaliation, and EU Trade WSilver trades around $31.8 per ounce on Wednesday, steady as safe-haven demand rises after Trump’s 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, with more expected. China’s retaliatory tariffs take effect today, while Germany warns of an immediate EU response to US tariffs. Silver is also supported by strong industrial demand, particularly in renewables, and ongoing supply shortages.
Technically, the first resistance level will be 32.50 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 33.00 and 33.50. On the downside, 31.40 will be the first support level. 30.90 and 30.20 are the next levels to observe if the first support level is breached.
Gold Falls from $2,940 Peak Amid Fed’s Hawkish StanceGold fell below $2,900 per ounce on Wednesday, extending losses after hitting a record $2,940. The drop followed Fed signals that rate cuts aren’t imminent, shifting focus to US inflation data. While inflation hedging supports gold, the Fed’s stance limits its appeal. Safe-haven demand remains strong amid Trump’s tariffs, trade war fears, and geopolitical tensions, with Israel threatening to end the Gaza ceasefire. Dovish central banks and rising gold purchases also provide support, while India’s gold leasing rates hit record highs.
Technically, the first resistance level will be 2949 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 2975 and 3000. On the downside, 2885 will be the first support level. 2830 and 2760 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.
Gold📉Probability of a Drop from 2912:
🔹 In lower timeframes (15m to 1h): 70% probability of a downward correction at least to 2887.
🔹In higher timeframes (4H to Daily): 50% probability of a deeper decline towards 2860.
🔹 If 2912 is broken and price stabilizes above it:** The probability of an upward move to 2940 increases.
📌 Summary:
If the price breaks and stabilizes above 2912, the upward trend is likely to continue. However, if it gets rejected at this level, a downward correction towards 2887 and even 2860 may occur.
USOIL BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are targeting the 69.83 level area with our short trade on USOIL which is based on the fact that the pair is overbought on the BB band scale and is also approaching a resistance line above thus going us a good entry option.
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USOUSD, OilUSOUSD is still in a downtrend. The price still has a chance to test the 74.49-74.9 level. If the price cannot break through the 74.9 level, it is expected that the price will go down. Consider selling the red zone.
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
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Sharing a strategyFor my scalping or Intraday trade, I created this pine script combining various indicator (namely the famous Alphatrend by @KivancOzbilgic, Previous Day Close and 52WeeksHigh/Low) into one indicator.
If price goes above the PDC and Alphatrend is a buy then I will make quick long trade. If price goes below the PDC and Alphatrend is a sell then I will make quick short trade. I added a percentage based on PDC to give me where I need to put my stoploss. Not really important as I always have proper risk reward ratio but it comes handy most of the time.
XAUUSD M30 I Bearish ContinuationBased on the M30 chart, price has broken below our sell entry level at 2,894.83, which aligns with a previous support turned resistance. confirming a potential bearish continuation.
A retest of this level may present further downside opportunities, with our take profit set at 2,882.29, near a key support zone.
The stop loss is placed at 2,909.01, above a recent swing high, ensuring the trade remains valid while allowing for market fluctuations.
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XAUUSD:11/2 Today's Market Analysis and Strategy30-minute resistance 2935, support 2915
1-hour resistance 2950, support 2900
Currently, the rising channel is complete, RSI is not overbought (about 65), and there is still room for upward movement.
Focus on the support strength of the 2910-2915 range. If it holds, it will remain bullish.
Note: If it breaks through 2950 during the day, it may accelerate towards 3000; if it pulls back to around 2900, it will attract long-term buying funds to enter the market.
Personal opinion: Gold is likely to continue to fluctuate upward, and the Asian and European sessions may test 2950-2960$, mainly buying on dips
Gold plunges, can it break the upward trend?Gold finally fell on the daily line. After setting a record high of 2942 yesterday, the RSI indicator showed an overbought price for the first time and returned to the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. The latest MA10/7-day moving average stopped at 2875/2853, and the daily line began to fall and adjust. The four-hour chart and the hourly chart moving average are glued together, the hourly chart Bollinger Band is flat, and the RSI indicator turns downward and is below the central axis. The trading is based on a wide range of fluctuations during the day.
If the US market meets the negative expectations of CPl data, the band decline is likely to be established, and you can continue to pay attention to the layout of the band short opportunity. If the data does not meet expectations and forms a significant positive, you need to pay attention to the second test of the previous high of the gold price. At present, the daily line has turned downward, and the main idea during the day is to sell at a high price and wait for adjustments.
Recently, due to the resurgence of the trade war, the market's risk aversion has pushed gold to continue to refresh historical highs. The technical side shows a long arrangement, and there is no historical reference pressure. Therefore, the trend judgment is more about paying attention to some real-time signals in the market in a timely manner. The short-term indicators are seriously overbought, and there is a need for adjustment. This decline is also beyond expectations! Therefore, the next operation idea is very clear. Relying on the daily defensive moving average to go long, and breaking the position to go short and bearish.
From a short-term perspective, gold has also entered the stage of adjustment, but the adjustment is also very beneficial to our later layout, because only adjustment can better buy! At present, the gold price has reached the support of the moving average, and the price is also staying near the 2881 line. The short-term adjustment obviously feels the support below. For this, the gold adjustment market will gradually come to an end, and the rising wave will follow!
Key points:
First support: 2882, second support: 2861, third support: 2844
First resistance: 2913, second resistance: 2926, third resistance: 2942
Operation ideas:
BUY: 2878-2881, SL: 2869, TP: 2900-2920;
SELL: 2918-2921, SL: 2929, TP: 2890-2880;
FED Chairman's testimony before CongressGold prices fell from historic levels as investors evaluated Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's congressional testimony and new trade policy statements from US President Donald Trump.
Market sentiment is mainly influenced by two important developments. First, President Donald Trump's announcement on Sunday of plans to impose 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, with no exceptions or exemptions, has raised concerns about potential trade conflicts.
Second, FED Chairman Jerome Powell's hearing also had a big impact on market developments. In his opening speech, Mr. Powell emphasized that the FED remains cautious in cutting interest rates, citing the solid economy and inflation continuously exceeding the FED's 2% target.
Investors are closely watching Mr. Powell's two-day testimony for clues about upcoming monetary policy, especially in the context of consumer price index (CPI) data about to be released. If inflation is higher than expected, market expectations of two interest rate cuts this year could be challenged.
The decline in gold prices from record highs also reflects profit-taking activities after a strong increase since mid-December, with an increase of about 370 USD, equivalent to 14.25%. This adjustment shows that investors are taking advantage of profit-taking opportunities, while reassessing the outlook for monetary policy and trade risks.
Bullish bounce off pullback support?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
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The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish momemtum to extend?The Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the pivot which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 2,873.49
1st Support: 2,839.87
1st Resistance: 2,917.79
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Gold Sweeps before Major PlaysWait if you looking for the move! Cause price will give us some type of validation of what it wants to do. It can remain bullish and break through this area or it can pull back and grab some liquidity before continuing. We just have to wait for the killzones to show up a clearer read.
USOIL Trade Log - CPI Session
USOIL Short Trade Setup – CPI Session Incoming 🚨
- Instrument: West Texas Oil (USOIL)
- Timeframe: 4-Hour
- Risk: 1% max due to CPI volatility
- Risk-Reward Ratio: Minimum 1:2
Key Technical Analysis:
1. Price has reached a strong resistance zone within the 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG) and is showing signs of rejection.
2. The Kijun Weekly and 4H levels align with this area, increasing the probability of a reversal.
3. Market structure has been bearish overall, with a clear Break of Structure (BOS) and internal liquidity grabs.
CPI Session Volatility Warning:
- With the CPI release incoming, expect aggressive moves and potential liquidity sweeps before directional commitment.
- If price runs liquidity above the FVG and shows strong bearish confirmations, this becomes a high-probability short.
- Manage risk carefully – no need to overexpose with CPI in play.
Trade Plan:
- Entry: Within the 4H FVG upon bearish confirmation.
- Stop Loss: Above the FVG high to avoid CPI wicks.
- Take Profit: At least 1:2 RRR, ideally targeting recent lows.
Stay sharp, play the reaction, and don’t force the trade if the setup invalidates. CPI is where weak hands get rinsed! 💀
Bearish drop?XAG/USD is rising towards the resistance which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 32.00
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 32.53
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 31.46
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which is a pullback support
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Gold Cup and Handle?Gold doesn't seem to move even with high Inflation data in the past months, possibly because the Crypto market is eating slowly it's market.
However it seems like there is potential Cup and Handle which might lead to Gold prices around 2500$ Ounce in the next few years.
A possible catalyst might be invasion of Ukraine, since Gold performs quite well during wars - however I truly Hope this never happens.
Just posting this here so I can keep track of it in the future, will update it if there is any news ahead.
XAU/USD Bullish Breakout – Gold Eyes $2,928 & Beyond!🔥 XAU/USD Analysis – February 4, 2025 🔥
📈 Current Price: $2,842.18 (+0.98%)
📊 Trend: Bullish momentum inside an ascending channel
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
🔵 Resistance: $2,928.75 – If this level breaks, expect further upside movement! 🚀
🔵 Support: $2,729.13 – Strong demand zone; watch for pullbacks.
🔴 EMA 200: $2,534.85 – Long-term bullish confirmation above this level! ✅
📉 Possible Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Case: Price continues the uptrend, targeting $2,928.75 next. If broken, gold could see $3,000+ soon! 🎯🔥
⚠️ Bearish Case: A rejection from resistance could lead to a pullback towards $2,800-$2,730.
💡 Final Thoughts:
The bullish momentum is still strong, and dips could be buying opportunities! 📊👑 Watch for price action near key levels.
📢 Gold bulls, are you ready for new highs? 🚀💰