XAUUSD consolidating awaiting the bullish break-out.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern, with its most recent Higher Low being priced on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). Since November 25, it has been stuck in range within the 1D MA100 and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As pre the RSI, this is a consolidation before the bullish break-out that will confirm the new Bullish Leg. A similar RSI consolidation around its MA trend-line was last seen during Gold's last Higher Low formation (June 07 - 27).
The break-outs Target was Resistance 1, so that is our Target again (2790). If however for any reason the price closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA100, we will be quick to take the small loss and on the counter go short, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 2500.
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Commodities
Gold: A Beacon in Economic UncertaintyGold: A Beacon in Economic Uncertainty
Gold has long been a symbol of stability, value, and security. In today’s turbulent economic and political environment, its role as a safe-haven asset is more critical than ever. Global events, ranging from monetary policy shifts to geopolitical crises, are shaping the price of this precious metal. What does the future hold for gold, and what does it mean for investors?
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A Safe Haven in Chaotic Times
During periods of global uncertainty, when financial markets grapple with volatility, gold remains one of the most sought-after assets. Recent events, such as the government crisis in France, fiscal policy uncertainties in the United States, and OPEC+ decisions to extend oil production cuts, have highlighted its enduring appeal.
Gold is often viewed as a stabilizer amid market turmoil, especially when investors are concerned about rising inflation and economic slowdowns. In Europe, the European Central Bank’s plans for further interest rate cuts enhance the attractiveness of assets like gold, which serve as a hedge against currency devaluation.
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Macroeconomic Trends Supporting Gold Prices
1. Monetary Policy and Real Interest Rates
Both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are adopting dovish stances, which bodes well for gold prices. In an environment of low real interest rates—where inflation outpaces bond yields—investors increasingly turn to gold as a protective asset.
2. Growing Demand for Gold
Central banks worldwide, particularly in China and India, are ramping up gold purchases, increasing global reserves. This reduced market supply acts as a catalyst for price growth.
3. Geopolitical Tensions
Political crises, such as budget impasses in the U.S. and uncertainty in the European Union stemming from France’s leadership challenges, drive investors toward safe-haven assets, lifting gold's value.
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Gold in the Digital Age
Modern technologies like blockchain are revolutionizing gold investment. Tokenization is making the gold market more accessible, blending the stability of traditional assets with the flexibility of digital solutions. Individual and institutional investors are increasingly leveraging these advancements, recognizing their potential to shape the future of the gold market.
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Forecast: Will Gold Hold Its Shine?
Experts predict that gold will remain in the spotlight in the coming years. Anticipated developments include:
- Further interest rate cuts in Europe and the United States.
- Rising geopolitical and political tensions, increasing demand for protective assets.
- Sustained high demand from central banks and financial institutions.
In the long term, gold appears to be an excellent hedge against inflation and market volatility.
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Conclusion
Gold, throughout history, has been synonymous with value and security. Amid today’s global economic and political challenges, its role is more crucial than ever. Investors should view gold not only as a means of capital preservation but also as a cornerstone of a well-diversified investment portfolio.
Is gold part of your financial strategy? In times of uncertainty, it may be precisely what you need for stability and peace of mind.
All Stars Aligned: Bitcoin, Gold, Fiat, and DebtThis post explores the idea that Bitcoin, often referred to as "digital gold," might one day replace gold as the preferred store of value.
Gold’s price (shown in yellow) has traditionally been sensitive to inflation, which is influenced by money printing, as indicated by the US M2 money supply (shown in white on the chart). Geopolitical and economic insecurity also drives demand for gold, the "safe-haven" metal. To add further context, I've also included US debt (shown in red).
The chart reveals that the market seems to have found some form of equilibrium at current levels, with gold’s price finally tracking the M2 money supply and debt parameters closely. Interestingly, Bitcoin (shown in orange) has mirrored this behavior in a similar fast-paced manner.
Around the $3,000 mark for gold and near $100,000 for Bitcoin, both assets are aligning with the money supply and debt trends. This suggests that any further price increases could be limited unless additional money is printed or debt increases. Of course, a Black Swan event could disrupt this equilibrium at any time.
I also used TradingView’s Correlation Coefficient tool to examine the relationship between Bitcoin and gold. The correlation is impressively high at 0.87, indicating an almost perfect alignment between the two assets.
The chart supports the idea that Bitcoin is tracking gold closely, strengthening the notion that Bitcoin could indeed be positioning itself as the "digital gold" of the future.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!
Market Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Faces Continued StrugglesMarket Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Faces Continued Struggles
Crude oil is showing bearish signs and might decline below $66.80.
Important Takeaways for Oil Price Analysis Today
- Crude oil prices failed to clear the $70.00 region and started a fresh decline.
- There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $67.50 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to clear the $70.00 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh decline below the $68.80 support.
The price even dipped below the $67.80 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls are now active near the $66.80 level. A low was formed at $66.78 and the price is now consolidating losses. If there is a fresh increase, it could face resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $70.10 swing high to the $66.78 low.
There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $67.50. The first major resistance is near the $67.80 level, above which the price could rise and test the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $70.10 swing high to the $66.78 low at $68.80.
Any more gains might send the price toward the $69.60 level. Conversely, the price might continue to move down and revisit the $66.80 support. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is $66.00.
If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $63.50. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $61.20 support zone.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Market Analysis: Gold ConsolidatesMarket Analysis: Gold Consolidates
Gold price is consolidating above the $2,600 support zone.
Important Takeaways for Gold Price Analysis Today
- Gold price started a recovery wave from the $2,610 zone against the US Dollar.
- A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance at $2,650 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $2,610 zone. The price remained in a bullish zone and started a recovery wave above $2,620.
There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $2,635. The bulls pushed the price above the $2,640 zone. Finally, the price climbed as high as $2,650 before the bears appeared. The price is now consolidating below $2,650.
There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,613 swing low to the $2,650 high, and the RSI is stable above 50.
Initial support on the downside is near $2,632. The first major support is near the $2,628 zone. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,613 swing low to the $2,650 high. If there is a downside break below the $2,628 support, the price might decline further.
In the stated case, the price might drop toward $2,612. Any more losses might push the price toward the $2,600 level. Immediate resistance is near the $2,650 level.
There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2,650. The next major resistance is near the $2,655 level. An upside break above the $2,655 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,670. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,685 level.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
WTI recovered slightly, the outlook tilted to the downsideWTI TVC:USOIL increased slightly in the Asian trading session on Monday (December 9), trading around 67.50 USD/barrel. Oil prices fell sharply last Friday, closing near their lowest level, mainly due to expected declines in global demand.
However, expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December increased following the release of US nonfarm data. According to CME Group's FedWatch, federal funds rate futures trading points to the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. point in December was nearly 90%, which will provide some support for oil prices.
Currently, uncertainty about the geopolitical situation increased again at the weekend, making the medium-term recovery of oil prices still not optimistic. In the short term, crude oil traders need to continue to observe whether the pressure brought about by the geopolitical situation on the supply side will support oil prices to continue to recover. Essentially, this week will continue to focus on changes in inventory data and whether demand-side pressures ease. This week, the financial market in general and the crude oil and WTI crude oil trading market in particular will focus on US CPI data.
On the daily chart, WTI TVC:USOIL although it recovered slightly in the opening Asian trading session today (December 9), it still has all the technical factors supporting bearish expectations.
With the long-term trend being noticed by the price channel followed by the short-term price channel, it has both a long-term and short-term trend of decreasing prices. On the other hand, WTI crude oil is also under main pressure from EMA21 along with the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level.
In the short term, if WTI crude oil is sold below 65.28USD, there will be a prospect for a new downtrend to open, and the technical point of 68.34USD is the closest resistance currently.
The relative strength index also maintained price activity below the 50 level, which should be considered a negative signal for WTI crude oil technically.
During the day, the technical outlook for WTI crude oil on the daily chart leans bearish with notable points listed below.
Support: 66.44 – 65.28USD
Resistance: 68.34 – 69.51USD
Ending a sideway week, pay attention to CPI dataDuring the Asian trading session on Monday (December 9), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery rose significantly then fell back, with gold prices hitting an intraday high of $2,650.62/ounce on the Asian market. Gold prices have now dropped and are trading at 2,636 USD/ounce.
Bloomberg reported that China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the first time in seven months and that the rapid collapse of the Syrian government further undermined stability in the Middle East. These two factors boosted gold prices on Monday but of course it only had a very short-term impact.
The People's Bank of China released data on December 7 showing that China's gold reserves at the end of November 2024 were 72.96 million ounces and at the end of October were 72.8 million ounces. As of April this year, China's central bank had increased its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months, helping support rising gold prices.
However, the Chinese central bank's purchases (about 5 tons) are relatively small compared to monthly purchases since the beginning of this year.
Traders watched developments in Syria over the weekend after President Bashar al-Assad fled as rebels took control of the capital Damascus.
The United States struck dozens of Islamic State targets in central Syria on Sunday, as President Joe Biden warned that Assad's fall could lead to a resurgence of Islamic extremism.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Although gold has had a week of stable price fluctuations with mostly sideways accumulation, in general on the daily chart it still moves with the main trend leaning towards the possibility of price decline.
With the main trend being noticed by price channel and pressure from EMA21 along with the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level and horizontal resistance of 2,644USD in the short term. On the other hand, the relative strength index (RSI) is moving sideways below the 50 level, which can be considered a negative signal for gold technically.
In the near term, if gold takes its price action below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, it could fall a bit further to $2,606 – $2,600 in the short term. Additionally, a new bearish cycle is likely to be opened once the $2,600 raw price level is broken below, confirmed by price activity below the 0.786% Fibonacci level followed by a target of around $2,538.
As long as gold remains within the price channel, below the EMA21 and below the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement, it remains bearish on the daily chart, and the highlights are listed below.
Support: 2,606 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,644 – 2,663USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2690
→Take Profit 1 2679
↨
→Take Profit 2 2674
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2585
→Take Profit 1 2596
↨
→Take Profit 2 2601
Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to support lvl 63.5 (Wave 3).Colleagues, the last forecast is still active, but I thought it was worth doing another one that will show more clearly what is happening now.
In my opinion, the price is still in wave “2” of low order, but in a three-wave correction.
This means that wave “2” (black, lower wave) should not update the level of 73.114, but it can update 71.695, although this condition is not necessary.
As a result, I still believe that the price will continue its downward movement, although it is in a prolonged correction.
There are 2 possible courses of action:
1) The riskier one is to open a short position on the market.
2) Conservative - wait for the price to rise, and enter with less risk.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Pay attention to the trading range of 2625~2657Weekend news shows that the People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings by 160,000 ounces again after six months. After more than 13 years of civil war, Syrian opposition forces seized control of the capital Damascus on Sunday. The martial law crisis in South Korea continues to ferment. In the short term, bullish opportunities have increased.
On the one hand, the market will continue to pay attention to news related to the geopolitical situation, but more attention may be focused on the US November CPI data to be released this week. Investors need to pay attention to changes in market expectations. Although the situation in Syria may boost safe-haven buying in the short term, it should be noted that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the conflict between Israel and Hamas may usher in a ceasefire, which may suppress the trend of gold prices.
The MA10/7-day moving average of gold still remains flat, the price is running above the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the RSI indicator continues to adjust the central axis. The Asian session opened high and touched 2648, and the Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart also closed. It is expected to continue to fluctuate widely at the beginning of the week. Intraday trading will first look at the 2625/2657 range adjustment, and short-term thinking game of selling high and buying low.
The risk aversion sentiment of gold rose over the weekend, but the rise of gold did not continue. It continued to rise and fall, so it is still difficult for gold bulls to stir up big waves. Wait for the rebound to continue to short.
Gold continued to fluctuate in 1 hour, and the moving average still crossed downward and diverged. Gold has not broken through 2657 under the risk aversion situation, so gold will continue to short at highs below 2657.
First support: 2625, second support: 2616, third support: 2603
First resistance: 2657, second resistance: 2668, third resistance: 2677
Trading strategy:
According to the first resistance/support, sell high and buy low in the range of 2625~2657. The focus above is 2668.
Safe Haven Volume-Weighted Cross-Asset Correlation Insights1. Introduction
Safe-haven assets, such as Gold, Treasuries, and the Japanese Yen, are vital components in diversified portfolios, especially during periods of market uncertainty. These assets tend to attract capital in times of economic distress, serving as hedges against risk. While traditional price correlation analyses have long been used to assess relationships between assets, they often fail to account for the nuances introduced by trading volume and liquidity.
In this article, we delve into volume-weighted returns, a metric that incorporates trading volume into correlation analysis. This approach reveals deeper insights into the interplay between safe-haven assets and broader market dynamics. By examining how volume-weighted correlations evolve across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes, traders can uncover actionable patterns and refine their strategies.
The aim is to provide a fresh perspective on the dynamics of safe-haven assets, bridging the gap between traditional price-based correlations and liquidity-driven metrics to empower traders with more comprehensive insights.
2. The Role of Volume in Correlation Analysis
Volume-weighted returns account for the magnitude of trading activity, offering a nuanced view of asset relationships. For safe-haven assets, this is particularly important, as periods of high trading volume often coincide with heightened market stress or major economic events. By integrating volume into return calculations, traders can better understand how liquidity flows shape market trends.
3. Heatmap Analysis: Key Insights
The heatmaps of volume-weighted return correlations across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes provide a wealth of insights into the behavior of safe-haven assets. Key observations include:
Gold (GC) and Treasuries (ZN): These assets exhibit stronger correlations over weekly and monthly timeframes. This alignment often reflects shared macroeconomic drivers, such as inflation expectations or central bank policy decisions, which influence safe-haven demand.
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
These findings highlight the evolving nature of cross-asset relationships and the role volume plays in amplifying or dampening correlations. By analyzing these trends, traders can gain a clearer understanding of the market forces at play.
4. Case Studies: Safe-Haven Dynamics
Gold vs. Treasuries (GC vs. ZN):
Gold and Treasuries are often considered classic safe-haven assets, attracting investor capital during periods of inflationary pressure or market turbulence. Volume-weighted return correlations between these two assets tend to strengthen in weekly and monthly timeframes.
For example:
During inflationary periods, both assets see heightened demand, reflected in higher trading volumes and stronger correlations.
Geopolitical uncertainties, such as trade wars or military conflicts, often lead to synchronized movements as investors seek safety.
The volume-weighted perspective adds depth, revealing how liquidity flows into these markets align during systemic risk episodes, providing traders with an additional layer of analysis for portfolio hedging.
5. Implications for Traders
Portfolio Diversification:
Volume-weighted correlations offer a unique way to assess diversification benefits. For example:
Weakening correlations between Gold and Treasuries during stable periods may signal opportunities to increase exposure to other uncorrelated assets.
Conversely, stronger correlations during market stress highlight the need to diversify beyond safe havens to reduce concentration risk.
Risk Management:
Tracking volume-weighted correlations helps traders detect shifts in safe-haven demand. For instance:
A sudden spike in the volume-weighted correlation between Treasuries and the Japanese Yen may indicate heightened risk aversion, suggesting a need to adjust portfolio exposure.
Declining correlations could signal the return of idiosyncratic drivers, providing opportunities to rebalance holdings.
Trade Timing:
Volume-weighted metrics can enhance timing strategies by confirming market trends:
Strengthening correlations between safe-haven assets can validate macroeconomic narratives, such as inflation fears or geopolitical instability, helping traders align their strategies accordingly.
Conversely, weakening correlations may signal the onset of new market regimes, offering early indications for tactical repositioning.
6. Limitations and Considerations
While volume-weighted return analysis offers valuable insights, it is essential to understand its limitations:
Influence of Extreme Events:
Significant market events, such as unexpected central bank announcements or geopolitical crises, can create anomalies in volume-weighted correlations. These events may temporarily distort the relationships between assets, leading to misleading signals for traders who rely solely on this metric.
Short-Term Noise:
Volume-weighted correlations over shorter timeframes, such as daily windows, are more susceptible to market noise. Sudden spikes in trading volume driven by speculative activity or high-frequency trading can obscure meaningful trends.
Interpretation Challenges:
Understanding the drivers behind changes in volume-weighted correlations requires a strong grasp of macroeconomic forces and market structure. Without context, traders risk misinterpreting these dynamics, potentially leading to suboptimal decisions.
By recognizing these limitations, traders can use volume-weighted correlations as a complementary tool rather than a standalone solution, combining it with other forms of analysis for more robust decision-making.
7. Conclusion
Volume-weighted return analysis provides a fresh lens for understanding the complex dynamics of safe-haven assets. By integrating trading volume into correlation metrics, this approach uncovers liquidity-driven relationships that are often missed in traditional price-based analyses.
Key takeaways from this study include:
Safe-haven assets such as Gold, Treasuries, and the Japanese Yen exhibit stronger volume-weighted correlations over longer timeframes, driven by shared macroeconomic forces.
For traders, the practical applications are clear: volume-weighted correlations can potentially enhance portfolio diversification, refine risk management strategies, and improve market timing. By incorporating this type of methodology into their workflow, market participants can adapt to shifting market conditions with greater precision.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
USOUSD (OIL), key support remains in play Thanks for checking our latest update. Today we are looking at oil on its daily chart.
The key questions we are asking today from a technical perspective are: Will we see key support continue to hold, and will the rough looking ending diagonal pattern confirm, setting off a new rally? Or could sellers finally break the discussed key support area, setting off a new leg lower?
Key support: $67 - $66.50.
As always, traders must remain vigilant and stay abreast of the latest updates from OPEC and geopolitical influences, as these factors can significantly impact the market.
Good trading from Eightcap.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Dec 09 - Dec 13]Last week, international OANDA:XAUUSD almost went sideways in a range from 2,613 - 2,657 USD/oz.
The US economy created 227,000 jobs in November, slightly surpassing economists' forecasts. At the same time, wages increased faster than expected. However, the unemployment rate increased again to 4.2%. However, these data show that the US labor market has been tending to recover, creating momentum for the FED to consider delaying interest rate cuts in the context of higher inflation, especially is when Mr. Trump is about to take office as President of the United States.
Thus, there may not be much room for gold prices to increase because the FED cuts interest rates. Therefore, gold prices will need additional catalysts from geopolitical factors, central banks increasing gold purchases, etc.
Short-term gold prices in general and next week's gold prices in particular will still be in a state of tension between concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions and Mr. Trump's strong tariff measures, causing US Treasury bond yields to increase. , creating strength for the USD and limiting the rise in gold prices.
📌Technically, on the H4 chart, we can see that the moving average ema89 is moving sideways, the gold price continues to accumulate sideways in a narrow range. Accordingly, the resistance level to pay attention to is around the 2720 mark, the support level to pay attention to is around the 2535 mark. Gold prices will create a clear trend when breaking through these two resistance levels.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,600 – 2,606USD
Resistance: 2,663 – 2,644USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2721 - 2719⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2725
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2534 - 2536⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2530
GOLD SHOWING WEAKNESS, MAY LIKELY BE A SELL...A gold bullish rally into the highlighted area followed by another rejection will likely see gold declining towards 2500 in coming days. However, a close above 2720 will indicate gold's readiness to continue its bullish run.
N.B!
- XAUUSD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#gold
#xauusd
Bullish rise?The Silver (XAG/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 30.06
1st Support: 27.99
1st Resistance: 32.49
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bearish drop?The Gold (XAU/USD) is reacting off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as an overlap support.
Pivot: 2,666.69
1st Support: 2,529.22
1st Support: 2,529.22
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Falling towards pullback support?USO/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 66.96
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 65.52
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 68.66
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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What about DXY?I haven't updated my DXY analysis for a while. So let's dust it off.
The last update was in September when the atmosphere was changing in a way that we couldn't predict the US Election clearly and for a short period, the market thought the results wouldn't be as it is today. That was why I was a bit bearish on DXY. By getting closer to Election Day the clouds were going away and it got easier for the market to see the outcome. So, it strengthened the dollar while weakening the Gold as we expected the geopolitical tensions to cool off.
What's next?
For now, I see the 10-year bond yield can show a bit more weakness to come just below 3.99%. Then after that, we should update our analysis and see what comes next. But I think ~4% is low for now and after that, I like to see a jump back up. In this short-term correction DXY would follow the 10-year bond yield and most probably come into the range of 104 to 105. That's also can be a small driver for Gold to go higher a bit.
USOIL, Where is the best zone to long?Greetings, traders! Welcome to this USOIL market analysis, where we focus on identifying higher-probability trading opportunities.
In this video, I start by analyzing the yearly down to the daily charts, highlighting key trading zones, and discussing the confirmations we look for to optimize our swing entries.
If you like the breakdown, boost the idea and follow to receive more ideas.
Trade safely
Trader Leo
Bullish on Gold and Silver
Do you remember the previous post? 😉
Gold and silver moved as we expected. They showed some weakness in reaching the "Nice areas..." I highlighted this in the previous chart.
So what's next?
As I think we will see another rate cut from the US Fed I think that would be a decent driver for Gold and Silver to get a bit more stronger and don't go lower than the "Nice areas" that I highlighted.
For Silver, I see a very good potential for a move higher towards $36 (I hope before February) and for Gold, I think we can expect a bit more strength from buyers to push Gold to $3000 this year on a slow and steady pace.
Stay tuned for the next updates . . .