28 Apr - XABCD Pattern Signals Potential UpsideRecently, the expected Head and Shoulders pattern seems to be delayed — and possibly invalidated — as buyers successfully defended the line at $3,287, pushing the price up to $3,319 on Friday. As a result, a new bullish setup has emerged.
On the 1-hour chart, an XABCD harmonic pattern has clearly formed, offering two upside targets:
Target 1: $3,367
Target 2: $3,435
On the downside, $3,260 is now acting as the critical level. A break below this point could open the door for lower prices.
For now, the bias is long until Target 1 at $3,367 is reached. Traders should monitor short-term sentiment closely: if signs of weakness or a shift appear, the price could reverse earlier.
Important to note: the Head and Shoulders pattern remains a risk if price falls below $3,260 after reaching $3,370 and moves toward the neckline at $3,237.
📍 Summary:
Idea: Go long toward $3,367.
Risk: Head and Shoulders pattern could still complete if bearish momentum returns.
Stay sharp and manage your risk accordingly!
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This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
Commodities
GOLD falls more than 40 Dollars, widening correction rangeSpot OANDA:XAUUSD unexpectedly accelerated its decline during the Asian trading session on Monday (April 28). The current price of gold is around 3,280 USD/ounce, down more than 40 USD on the day. The price of gold has gradually decreased compared to the intraday high of 3,336.98 USD/ounce reached at the beginning of the trading session.
The easing of trade tensions between China and the United States has weakened gold’s appeal as a safe haven. Gold prices have fallen more than 5% since breaking above $3,500 an ounce last Wednesday.
The latest developments around US-China trade relations and the release of key US macroeconomic data will trigger gold’s near-term price action. Market participants will be closely watching US economic growth and employment data this week.
The latest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that hedge fund managers cut their net long positions in gold futures and options to a 14-month low.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has dropped below the raw price of $3,300 and at its current position it could continue to decline further with a short-term target of around $3,245 where the price confluences with the upper edge of the price channel.
Although gold has fallen significantly from $3,500, looking at the overall chart, gold still has bullish conditions with support from EMA21 and the rising price channel as the long-term trend. On the other hand, the down trending RSI is also approaching the 50 level, in this case the 50 level is the closest support at present, indicating that there may not be much room for decline in the short term.
Once gold is back in action above the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it will be in position to rebound with a target of around $3,371 in the short term.
During the day, the bearish correction could continue but will be limited by the EMA21 and the price channel. Along with that, the bearish correction along with the main uptrend will be noticed by the following technical positions.
Support: $3,245 – $3,228 – $3,200
Resistance: $3,292 – $3,371
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3328 - 3326⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3332
→Take Profit 1 3320
↨
→Take Profit 2 3314
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3226 - 3228⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3222
→Take Profit 1 3234
↨
→Take Profit 2 3240
Bullish on USOILAs the chart shows, in the 1 - hour timeframe, USOIL is in an upward - trending channel 📈. The price fluctuates upwards between two trendlines. Despite pullbacks, the uptrend persists, suggesting short - term bullish dominance. Still, the frequent swings reveal ongoing bull - bear market battles.📈
⚡⚡⚡ USOIL ⚡⚡⚡
🚀 Buy@61.5 - 62.0
🚀 TP 63.5 - 65.0
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟
CRUDE OIL Move Down Ahead! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
USOIL was making a
Bullish correction but
It is in the downtrend
Overall, so as the price
Is hovering beneath the
Horizontal resistance
Of 64.80$ from where
We will be expecting a
Local bearish correction
Sell!
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4.28 Latest Gold Market Trend Analysis:
Core Viewpoint:
The gold market has entered a key long-short contention area after a sharp correction. The short-term trend will depend on the breakthrough direction of the 3260-3370 range. Investors are advised to adopt a range trading strategy and focus on the breakthrough of key support and resistance levels.
1. Key fundamental factors
Negative factors:
The US dollar continues to strengthen (the US dollar index rose 0.3%)
The easing of Sino-US trade tensions (China exempted some US goods from tariffs)
Weakened safe-haven demand (global geopolitical risks cooled down)
Potential bullish factors:
Uncertainty about the global economic outlook remains
If the US dollar corrects, it may boost gold prices
Technical buying at key support levels
2. Technical analysis
Daily level:
Key resistance: 3368-3370 (23.6% Fibonacci level)
Key support: 32 60-3280
Trend pattern: consolidation phase after high-level correction
MACD indicator: fast and slow lines cross, indicating short-term bearish
4-hour level:
Moving average system: MA5 (3315) and MA20 (3338) form suppression
Bollinger Band: Price runs below the middle track, and the lower track is supported at 3260
RSI indicator: close to the oversold area, need to be vigilant about technical rebound
3. Key price range
Upper resistance:
Short-term: 3315-3338
Strong resistance: 3343-3353
Key resistance: 3368-3370
Support below:
Short term: 3290-3300
Key support: 3260-3280
Strong support: 3200-3220
IV. Trading strategy suggestions
Interval trading strategy:
Buy low and sell high in the 3280-3330 range
If it breaks above 3330, you can go long with a light position, with a target of 3350-3370
If it breaks below 3280, you can consider going short, with a target of 3260-3220
Breakthrough trading strategy:
If it breaks through 3370, it may start a new round of rise
If it falls below 3260, it may accelerate the decline Go to 3200
Risk control:
Strictly set stop loss (50-80PIPS recommended)
Position control within 5%
Pay attention to the volatility opportunities before and after the opening of the US market every day
V. Focus on events
Economic data:
US GDP data
Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Non-agricultural employment data
Political events:
Progress of China-US trade negotiations
Geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe
News related to the US election
VI. Summary and suggestions
The gold market is currently at a critical turning point, and the large range of 3260-3370 will determine the future medium-term trend. Suggested investors:
Short-term traders: focus on trading opportunities in the 3280-3330 range
Medium-term investors: wait for the breakthrough confirmation of 3260 or 3370 before making a layout
Strict risk management: control positions and set stop losses
Gold remains bullish. But....Last week gold was very volitile. with big movements up to 700pips. During market closure gold got big pricegaps. Be carefull trading this volitile market.
Notice the longterm uptrend in the daily and weekly time frame. If we break it down to H2 we got a clear head and shoulder pattern. It will only be valid if gold manage to break the neckline of this pattern and break below the H2 FVG/support located around 3246 up to 3256. Confirmed break will send gold lower. If gold manage to break above the resistance trend our first bull target should be 3365 level.
I use Priceaction trading only.
Resistance: 3319, 3343, 3367, 3385
Support: 3294, 3246, 3232
XAUUSD correcting to its 4H MA200.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Bullish Megaphone pattern since the start of the year. Last week's rejection on its top (Higher Highs trend-line) has resulted into a break below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
This has technically been the signal that started the previous 2 Bearish Legs, which both bottomed upon touching the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and once the 4H RSI got oversold below 30.00.
As a result, we expect more downside, targeting 3160.
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Gold bullish sentiment coolsFrom the daily level, gold saw long profit taking at the 3500 mark, and the price retreated to 3260 at its lowest. Due to the increasing uncertainty of the market on tariffs, the market has seen a wide range of consolidation. From a technical perspective, the market will only strengthen again if it breaks through 3385 and stabilizes, and the adjustment space will be further expanded if it breaks below 3260!
From the 4-hour level, after the sharp drop of 3500-3260, the current market is under pressure and fluctuates below the middle track, with a range of 3370-3260 US dollars. At present, the Bollinger Bands continue to close, and the short-term market continues to maintain the range consolidation until the Bollinger Bands expand again and choose a new direction. Before the range is broken, you can sell high and buy low, and try to sell at high levels. If it breaks, choose to follow the trend.
Gold fell 70$ from its high in the Asian session. In terms of market sentiment, investors are emotionally complex, and some investors have profit-taking behavior, which led to a decline in the situation where gold opened high. From a short-term perspective, the strength of gold bulls is not very strong. Although gold opened higher on Monday for safe-haven trading over the weekend, it quickly fell back, indicating that gold bulls are not very confident at present. Gold short-term is still dominated by shorts.
The gold 1-hour moving average is still in a dead cross short arrangement, but if gold does not fall for a long time, then the gold 1-hour moving average may begin to turn upward, and the strength of gold shorts will decrease. Gold began to fall under pressure after 3336 in the Asian session, so gold will still be under pressure below 3336 during the day. If it breaks through 3336 strongly, then gold may start to rise in the short term, then we will adjust our thinking.
Key points:
First support: 3274, second support: 3260, third support: 3243
First resistance: 3325, second resistance: 3336, third resistance: 3358
Operation ideas:
Buy: 3260-3263, SL: 3252, TP: 3280-3290;
Sell: 3330-3333, SL: 3342, TP: 3310-3300;
XAUUSD H4 | Bullish Bounce OffBased on the H4 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 3245.68, a pullback support.
Our take profit is set at 3314, an overlap resistance
The stop loss is placed at 3212.68, a swing low support.
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DeGRAM | GOLD Held Support Level📊 Technical Analysis
Gold’s slide paused at $3 315; holding here keeps $3 500 – 3 520 in play.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
• PBoC has been buying for 5 months in a row.
• WGC expects strong demand from central banks in 2025.
• Trade wars, tensions in the Middle East and South Asia are causing risks that are increasing demand for gold.
• IMF warns new tariffs could slow growth, boosting safe-haven bids.
• Western ETFs had bought ≈240 t by mid-April.
• DXY is at 3-year lows and yields are down.
✨ Summary
Strong central-bank buying, renewed ETF inflows, softer USD yields and rising geopolitical risk align with chart support, favouring a rebound toward $3 500 – 3 520 while $3 315 holds.
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Heading into 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is risng towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st suport which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 65.64
1st Support: 57.71
1st Resistance: 71.18
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Weekly Market Forecast: Buy Stocks! Sell Oil! Buy Gold!In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Oil, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of April 28 - May 2nd.
Markets are looking tradeable again.
The indices look bullish, creating +FVGs as they move higher.
Oil has corrected a bearish impulse, so it could be poised to move lower from the Daily and Weekly -FVG.
Gold took a breather last week and could move higher from the Weekly +FVG it just created.
Let's go!
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GOLD BULLS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 3,281.65
Target Level: 3,346.60
Stop Loss: 3,238.35
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 2h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Is this still the ‘Top Trade’ of 2025? (WTI crude oil)It’s not a big secret actually- I’m talking about crude oil!
In the final week of 2024, the team and I highlighted two versions of the WTI crude oil weekly chart and asked ‘is this the top trade of 2024?’
Version 1 has already happened, WTI crude hit $55 per barrel, the downside objective of the smaller triangle pattern on the chart.
Version 2 showed a much larger triangle pattern (which we show again this week) and had a downside target of nearly $30! It would take a lot of conviction to ride the price that far down, but could crude oil still move a lot lower this year?
What’s interesting is that this is still one of the ‘less talked about’ situations in the market today because of the huge volatility seen in both stocks, forex and fixed income.
And I like that nobody’st talking about it - because you don’t want everyone in on it - that means the move could already be over.
Crude oil hit a five-year low. That’s meaningful.
Strong markets don’t hit 5-year lows, weak markets do. And we like to sell weak markets.
Of course, ‘oversold markets’ hit 5-year lows too - and that largely explains the ‘bottom feeders’ who bought WTI crude oil at $55.
Downside volatility got extreme owing to Trump’s tariffs and mean-reversion helped it rebound on news of the 90-day pause, much like stock markets.
I am completely open to the idea that $55 is a multi-year low and essentially marked the bottom. The huge Hammer reversal candlestick pattern adds weight to that idea.
But with the price having hit $65 last week, buying the lows is yesterday’s trade. What do we do today?
We will be looking to do what we said in Week 53 of 2024 in case crude oil turns out to be the ‘top trade of 2025’ as we imagined.
By the way, Brent crude oil has a very similar setup so this is not a ‘US oil’ thing.
There are two parts to trading ‘planning the trade, and trading the plan’.
There isn’t much use in making a plan, and not taking the trade.
There are always reasons not to take a trade- but if it’s a ‘good trade’ that fits the rules of your trading strategy, then those reasons are usually just ‘noise’.
WTI Crude (USO/USD)
Long term chart (weekly)
Trend: Down
Phase: Re-test of breakdown
Resistance = $70
Support = $55
Price action: Price has broken down, rebounded and is now testing the breakdown level, while under the 30-week moving average. Should the price break back over the broken long term rising trendline then we know the idea, or at least the timing on the idea is not right.
View: Bearish while under broken up-sloping long term support
GBPUSD - Big Move Setting Up - Elliott Wave AnalysisGBPUSD is currently unfolding a 5-wave impulsive move according to Elliott Wave Theory.
At the moment, we are in Wave 4, which typically corrects against the larger trend.
Key Points:
Wave 2 was a simple correction, so based on alternation, Wave 4 is expected to be more complex (likely an ABC structure).
Wave 4 often retraces to the 38.2% Fibonacci level — in this case, aligning perfectly with a long-term ascending trendline, providing additional confluence for a potential buy zone.
Trade Plan:
- Monitor the ABC correction for completion near the 38.2% retracement.
- Look for bullish confirmation (trendline break, bullish structure shifts, BOS, etc.).
- Entries will be considered after clear signs of bullish pressure.
- Stoploss: Below the lows formed during the Wave 4 correction.
Targets:
First Target: 1.3400 (450 pips)
Second Target: 1.3750 (800 pips)
Summary:
Patience is key during the Wave 4 correction. Once the setup confirms, this could offer a strong risk-reward opportunity within the overall bullish impulsive structure.
See our past GBPUSD setups below:
Swing 1:
Swing 2:
Swing 3:
XAUUSD Weekly-Daily-H4 Outlook – April 28, 2025"Gold’s Game: Range Trap... or Breakout Incoming?" 👀⚡
🔥 Macro + Micro Context:
Macroflow: No major macro catalysts today — market sentiment driven mostly by technicals, liquidity behavior, and late-week reactions.
Bias:
HTF (D1–W1): Still bullish-biased long-term, unless 3220–3235 breaks cleanly.
LTF (H4–M30): Currently trapped in a wide distribution range 3380–3260, showing signs of both liquidity sweeps and engineered traps.
Liquidity Dynamics:
Both upside and downside liquidity have been targeted multiple times. Equal highs/lows patterns forming, suggesting fakeouts are highly probable before any real move.
📈 STRUCTURAL RANGE:
🔵 Main Range:
• Top: 3380–3395 → major flip zone (premium side)
• Bottom: 3260–3280 → major demand zone (discount side)
📚 Inside the range:
• Liquidity is being farmed on both sides — expect fake spikes, stop hunts, and whipsaw moves before breakout.
🔑 H4 Key Zones (Above Current Price):
Level Type Notes
3380–3395 Major Supply + Flip Zone HTF orderblock + FVG + previous sell trap
3410–3415 Minor Supply Zone M30–H1 imbalance + small FVG
3448–3455 Major Premium Supply HTF OB + FIBO 1.618 extension + historical premium trap
3490–3500 ATH Area Strong psychological level + institutional interest
🔑 H4 Key Zones (Below Current Price):
Level Type Notes
3260–3280 Major Discount Demand Strong H1-H4 unmitigated OB + liquidity grab zone
3220–3235 HTF Reversal Demand Last HTF pivot for bullish bias
📊 Expected Scenarios:
Bullish Path:
Hold 3260–3280 → Break 3380–3395 → Target 3415 → Then 3450–3500 range sweep.
Bearish Path:
Fail at 3380–3395 → Sharp rejections back into 3280 → Potential crash toward 3235 and 3210.
👀 EYES ON:
Watch the 3380–3395 flip zone closely.
If price fails there with heavy wicks and low volume, bulls are trapped again.
If price holds above 3395–3415 cleanly, bulls regain control for 3450+.
🧠 FINAL MESSAGE:
"The best traders don’t predict. They prepare."
"Trap or breakout — it’s all about reaction, not prediction. Stay sharp, stay liquid, and don’t chase the donkey moves."
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XAUUSD Downtrend Continues- Is 3,175 the Next Stop?OANDA:XAUUSD is currently trading within a well-defined descending channel, with price action consistently forming lower highs and lower lows. This structure reflects sustained bearish momentum, and sellers continue to dominate the overall direction.
The recent upward move appears to be a technical rebound, with price approaching a potential resistance zone near the upper boundary of the channel. This area may now serve as a supply zone after acting as previous support, making it an important region for potential rejection.
If the resistance holds, a rejection here could lead to the continuation of the bearish trend, with a potential move targeting the support area around 3,175, aligning with the lower boundary of the descending channel.
However, failure to hold below this level could invalidate the bearish scenario and increase the likelihood of a retest toward the upper boundary of the channel.
Traders should monitor for clear rejection signals at resistance, such as bearish engulfing candles or strong rejection wicks, or alternatively, wait for breakout confirmation before considering a trend shift. As always, proper risk management remains essential.
XAUUSD - All Eyes on the Reaction Zone for Directional ClarityThe Gold Spot price chart shows a clear potential for price movement toward the highlighted reaction area between approximately $3,360 and $3,380. After reaching highs around $3,500 on April 22, gold has experienced a significant correction, forming a series of lower highs and lows. The current price action suggests that gold may be preparing for a rebound toward this critical reaction zone, as indicated by the upward green arrow. Once gold reaches this reaction area, traders will need to closely monitor price behavior for confirmation of whether this represents a temporary bounce in a larger downtrend or the beginning of a new push toward previous highs. Key technical indicators at this level will determine if gold has enough momentum to break through resistance and potentially retest recent highs, or if sellers will emerge again, forcing another leg down toward recent support levels around $3,270-$3,280.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
USOIL Opening Trends and Trading Strategies Next WeekTrend Analysis
As shown in the chart, in the 1 - hour time frame, USOIL is moving within an upward - trending channel 📈. This channel is defined by two trendlines, and the price is fluctuating upwards within it. Although there have been pullback trends during this period, the overall trend remains upward. This indicates that in the short term, the bullish forces are relatively dominant, driving the price to gradually climb 📈. However, the frequent price fluctuations also reflect a certain degree of game - playing between the bulls and bears in the market 🤺.
⚡⚡⚡ USOIL ⚡⚡⚡
🚀 Buy@61.5 - 62.0
🚀 TP 63.5 - 65.0
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟