Copper - the hot topic this weekUS is planning to implement tariffs on copper imports at a scale of 50%. It's an interesting move, which might not make much sense. Let's dig in.
MARKETSCOM:COPPER
COMEX:HG1!
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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Commodities
THE LONG SHOT 〉POTENTIAL OUTLOOKAs illustrated, I'm trying to visualize how a potential continuation impulse could look like during " Bullish July " and toward the end of the year (depending on how aggressive buyers step in; specially central banks and institutions).
As you can see on this Daily chart, price respected a long term trend line + is forming higher lows, funneling into a shorter and shorter range of accumulation.
This is a very strong bullish behavior; when price gets tighter and tighter respecting a resistance level, but making higher lows. It tends to indicate that price is accumulating and "loading" (sort of speak).
Now, analyzing gold from the fundamental aspect, one MUST align those factors with price. In other words: DOES IT MAKE SENSE TO BE BULLISH OR "THINK" PRICE COULD RISE?
Well, ask yourself and do the research on the following (but not limited to) questions:
1. How is the US dollar doing? (Since it is the world's "reserve" currency)
2. Are the interest rates in the USA favoring the economy?
3. How is the world economy as a whole doing?
- inflation in the top world powers and important economies?
4. How is international trade policy looking like for the world?
- Positive or negative? Are countries happy with each other currently, trading without any issues? (Or maybe... there's a tariff war and a trade war goin on?...)
5. Politically speaking, is the general public UNITED or POLARIZED? (politics is a key fundamental aspect for the price of gold, as it either adds to uncertainty and tensions, or it calms things down).
6. Geopolitically speaking (and most importantly); is the "conflict" (war) ending, getting better, resolving? ...
7. Where is the money going and flowing? Black rock, vanguard, and other top hedge funds; where are they investing their money? ( because central banks keep BUYING gold... )
Those are some of many many questions one must study and understand, in order to align the technical aspects of the price of the yellow metal.
If any question/factor DOES NOT POINT to bullishness in price, then the technical and price projection of any analysis starts to have weakness.
On the other hand, if the fundamental factors and questions in play INDEED POINT toward an uncertain situation, adding bullishness to the price, any analysis and bullish projection simply has those aspects to its favor.
--
GOOD LUCK!
persaxu
Gold Trade Setup – Long Invalidated, Watching Retest for ShortGold has been consolidating between $3,200 and $3,500, recently pressing against a descending resistance line that has rejected price several times. I was favoring the upside, but our long setup was invalidated — the stop loss at $3,330 was hit.
Price is now retesting ascending support, and I'm shifting focus to a short opportunity, using our previous long entry level (~$3,333) as a key area of interest for entries.
Here’s the updated plan:
Short Entry: Around $3,333
Stop Loss: $3,340
Take Profit: $3,303
Remaining cautious but opportunistic — the larger structure is vulnerable and could break further if support fails.
NATURAL GAS Best buy opportunity of the Channel Up.Natural Gas (NG1!) touched yesterday the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the 1.5-year Channel Up, marginally below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and is reacting so far today with a bullish tone.
If this evolves in a full-scale rebound, then technically it will be the pattern's new Bullish Leg. The previous one rose by +161.12% and a repeat of that will take this Leg back to the top of the Channel Up.
Our Target is marginally below that mark, on the 2.5 Fibonacci extension level at 6.800.
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SILVER (XAGUSD): Correction is Over?!
It looks like Silver has finally completed a consolidation within
a wide horizontal parallel channel on a daily.
A new higher high formation today indicates coming growth.
Because if its Friday, I suggest looking for trend-following buy from Monday.
Let the market close above the underlined resistance to let it set a Higher Close
as well.
Look for buying after a pullback, aiming at 38.0 as the first goal.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Nasdaq Surges to New Highs – 23,200 and 24,000 in Sight? (READ)By analyzing the Nasdaq chart on the weekly timeframe, we can see that the index is currently trading around the 22,700 zone and has followed the main analysis perfectly so far — continuing to print new all-time highs.
According to the original outlook, as long as the index holds above 22,150, we can expect further bullish continuation toward the next targets at 23,200 and 24,000.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
XAUUSD - Sell or Buy ? Hello everyone, great to see you again!
Today, OANDA:XAUUSD remains under notable pressure as the U.S. continues to signal a tougher trade stance. The latest move: the U.S. President announced a 50% import tariff on copper and a potential 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals, following a previous tariff notice ranging from 25% to 40% sent to 14 countries — including Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia.
This isn’t just about protectionism. These measures fuel fears of global inflation, supply chain disruptions, and a broader economic slowdown. With surging prices in raw materials and essential goods, consumers may be forced to cut back spending, a classic warning sign for future growth.
In this environment, investors had hoped gold would shine again as a safe haven asset. However, the recent bullish momentum has been underwhelming, signaling ongoing market hesitation.
📉 On the H4 chart, XAUUSD is being squeezed into a descending pattern, which typically carries a high probability of a downside breakout. If the current support fails, the next target could fall below the 32xx area.
On the flip side, if supportive news emerges — such as a hint of rate cuts from the Fed — gold must break above the $3,335 level to revive bullish sentiment.
🔎 What do you think? Will gold break lower — or bounce back? Drop your thoughts below!
GBPJPY - Multi-Year Short Update! In our last setup for GBPJPY, we identified a massive diagonal pattern, with price completing wave 4 and preparing for a multi-year drop into wave 5.
Since then, price has played out exactly as forecasted — we've seen a clean impulse lower for wave 1, followed by an ABC correction for wave 2, which looks to have now completed.
This sets the stage for the next major leg — wave 3 of 5 — which historically carries the most power and momentum.
📉 See monthly chart here:
📊 GBP/JPY Wave‑3 Trade Idea
Background:
We’ve completed wave 1 down and wave 2 up (ABC correction).
GBPJPY is now positioned to start a powerful wave 3 down — the most impulsive leg in an Elliott sequence.
🔍 Current Price Action:
Price is rejecting major resistance (previous wave A high + shaded zone)
Structure shows a completed 5-wave move up within C, suggesting exhaustion.
A clean ascending trendline (red) has formed under wave v — a break here signals the first confirmation.
Option 1 – Aggressive Entry:
- Trigger: Break and close below the red trendline (~198.00–197.80 zone) on the daily.
- Entry: On candle close below trendline
- Stop Loss: Above recent high ~199.80 and then breakeven once we move lower
Option 2 – Conservative Entry (preferred):
- Trigger: Trendline break + correction
- Entry: On bearish confirmation and then a correction to indicate further downside
- Stop Loss: Above recent high ~199.80 and then breakeven once we move lower
Take Profit Levels:
- TP1: 192
- TP2: 180
- TP3: 175
- Final Target: Trail for extended move toward wave (3) lows (could be 10,000+ pips over long term)
🔐 Invalidation:
Daily close back above 200.00 or impulsive rally beyond the pink resistance zone invalidates the short bias in the short term.
✅ Summary:
This is a high-conviction, structure-backed setup with:
- Wave count + Fib confluence
- Bearish structure at key resistance
- Confirmation-based trigger (trendline break + retest)
- Excellent long-term risk-to-reward profile
📂 Previous GBPJPY Setups (Track Record):
📌 Free Setup (Big Picture Outlook) – Multi-Year Shorts Incoming (Wave 4 Completion)
✅ Swing 1 – 1,200 Pips (VIP GBPJPY Long)
✅ Swing 2 – 1,000 Pips (VIP GBPJPY Short)
✅ Swing 3 – 1,100 Pips (VIP GBPJPY Short)
✅ Swing 4 – 700 Pips (VIP GBPJPY Short)
Silver Spot to $136/oz then $477/ozThis could take multiple years to play out, my gold call 2-3 years ago was dead on. All I'm using are multi-fib confluences and the assumption that currency debasement and global liquidity will continue to increase over time. I am riding silver for the long haul. Watch Gold and for DXY bottoming pattern. Silver and Crypto move when DXY enters a momentum shift to the upside. Silver to $136-150 then $477-500 eventually.
Gold Roadmap=>Short termGold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) currently appears to have broken through the Resistance zone($3,350-$3,325) .
The Resistance zone($3,350-$3,325) was broken with the help of the Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern , the upper line of this classic pattern having served as an important resistance line for us in previous ideas .
In terms of Elliott wave theory , Gold has completed the Double Three Correction(WXY) within the Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern . It is currently completing the next five impulse waves . Wave 5 of these waves could end in the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
I expect Gold to rise to the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , and of course, given the momentum of gold approaching PRZ , we can also look for Short positions in PRZ .
Note: Stop Loss (SL) = $3,329
Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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Silver bullish breakout support at 3686The Silver remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a continuation breakout within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 3686 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 3686 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
3814 – initial resistance
3865 – psychological and structural level
3920 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 3686 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
3645 – minor support
3590 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the Silver holds above 3686. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Absolutely beautiful to see our 1h chart idea playing out perfectly. After completing the bearish targets earlier this week, we had the ema5 cross and lock below 3306 opening the swing range.
- This played out perfectly hitting the first swing range level and doing exactly what it say son the tin giving the full swing into 3306 just like we highlighted.
We will now look for ema5 lock above 3306 for a continuation into the bullish targets above or failure to lock will see rejections into the lower Goldturns for suport and bounce.
If it continues to fail breakout above, into the first Bullish target, then we are likely to see the full swing range tested on the rejections.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3358
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3358 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3389
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3389 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3416
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3416 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3439
BEARISH TARGETS
3330 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3330 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3306 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3306 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3283 - DONE
3254
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
USOIL Will Go Lower! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 66.917.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 62.519 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Crude Oil Trade Idea: Intraday mechanicsNYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1!
Bigger Picture:
Traders should note that news headlines do not always drive the price action. More often, news outlets look for narrative to align with the price action.
Previously, it was about the supply glut and worsening demand due to an uncertain outlook. Now the latest news flow is about Aramco OSP rising, OPEC+ adding another 548K bpd in August — higher than anticipated 411K — of the wounding of involuntary cuts. News outlets now view this as signs of demand growth and low inventories.
What has the market done?
Market has consolidated, building acceptance around microComposite Volume Point of Control at 65.50 (mcVPOC). Market then broke out of this balance.
What is it trying to do?
Market is building value higher; 2-day mcVPOC is at 68.29.
How good of a job is it doing?
Market is holding support and has tested resistance multiple times. It has also held support.
What is more likely to happen from here?
Further movement higher as long as it holds above support and yearly open confluence in the short term.
Key Levels:
• Resistance zone: 68.95 - 68.85
• pHi: 68.87
• 2-day VPOC: 68.29
• pSettlement: 68.38
• yOpen: 67.65
• Support zone: 67.70 - 67.50
• pLow: 67.89
Primary Scenario:
Crude oil pit session begins with open auction in yesterday’s range. Prices move lower to test prior day's low, 2-day balance support in confluence with yearly open. Prices push back higher towards yesterday's settlement and 2-day Volume Point of Control (VPOC) at 68.33.
Secondary Scenario:
Crude oil pit session begins with open auction in yesterday’s range. Market consolidates and chops around pSettlement and 2-day VPOC. Market takes out overnight high, fails to go further higher, and reverts lower. Settles below overnight low, however staying above prior low to continue one-time framing higher for the regular trading hours (RTH).
Gold - Sell inboundGold is looking very promising for another sell off. we are already showing signs that price has intent to move lower with some lower timeframe break of structure.
Just waiting for a manipulation now of the most recent highs put in before price moves lower.
Let's see if we get an entry tonight.
Gold: Market analysis and strategy on July 11Gold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance: 3375, support: 3285
Four-hour chart resistance: 3360, support: 3310
One-hour chart resistance: 3345, support: 3324.
For the current market trend, pay attention to the resistance of 3340-3345 on the upper side during the day. This is the high point concentration area that has suppressed the upward trend of gold prices many times in the early stage. If it is treated as a volatile market, sell at highs in the 3340~3345 range. If it breaks through 3345, it may trigger stop-loss buying and continue to rise to the 3355~3360 area.
The key support below is still at 3310, but from the 1-hour chart, the trend is rising in steps, and the short-term support is around 3324. Buy back here. After the Asian market was blocked near the previous high of 3345, it entered a short-term correction, and the long and short saws. It is suitable for fast in and out, and follow up and buy after breaking through 3345.
Buy: 3324near
Buy: 3310near
Buy: 3345near
Sell: 3344near
Gold 30Min Engaged ( Reversal Entry's Detected )Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout
🩸Bullish Reversal 3285 : 3272 Zone
🩸Bearish Reversal 3326 : 3334 Zone
➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority
➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected.
The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size.
Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation.
🔥 Tactical Note:
We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention.
The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
Gold 30Min Engaged ( Reversal Entry's Detected )
Gold fluctuates, consolidation in the 3330-3310 range📰 News information:
1. Waller meeting on interest rate cuts
2. Trump tariff issues
📈 Technical Analysis:
Waller will participate in the meeting in more than two hours and pay attention to whether there is any news of interest rate cut. The key is to operate around the 3330-3310 range. Continue to pay attention to the support of 3310-3305 at night. If gold falls below 3310,-3305 again, the downward trend will continue, and it is expected to touch 3280 again, or even 3250. If it rebounds above 3330, it is likely to continue to rise.
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, facing your mistakes, and exercising strict self-discipline. I share free trading strategies and analysis ideas every day for reference by brothers. I hope my analysis can help you.
TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
GOLD SWING LONG|
✅GOLD is trading in a strong
Long-term uptrend along the
Rising support line so we are
Bullish biased and after the price
Breakout of the local opening wedge
We we will be expecting a
Further bullish move up
LONG🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Natural Gas - The Epic Reversal? Natural gas had an astonishing move to the upside. Closing up over 5% today.
This volatility can make all tarders head spin if youre not used to it.
Why did Nat gas pop today?
Partly from being oversold and into really good technical support, Natural gas inventories were released today at 10:30am.
The inventories showed a smaller build than the market expected which implies stronger demand. 56B consensus vs 53B actual.
This could potentially be the start to a new bullish trend.
Names like EQT & AR hit some major support today. Some call options on these names have been accumulated.
XAGUSD Analysis : Squeeze + Curved Support Break + Bearish SetupThe XAGUSD 4-hour timeframe presents a structurally rich bullish setup, displaying signs of smart money accumulation and directional bias toward a potential breakout. Price action is currently compressing beneath a major horizontal resistance, supported dynamically by a Black Mind Curve, indicating progressive demand absorption by larger players.
This structure — characterized by rounded, ascending support and multiple rejections off a flat resistance — resembles a re-accumulation cup-like formation beneath a key supply level. These conditions often precede high-probability breakouts, driven by liquidity engineering and retail trap setups.
🔍 Key Technical Elements:
🟢 1. Black Mind Curve Support (Dynamic Demand Zone)
The curved trendline support represents an institutionally significant accumulation level, respected over multiple sessions. Note the price’s consistent reaction at this curved support, producing long lower wicks and bullish engulfing candles — both signs of liquidity grabs followed by strong buyer commitment.
This curve essentially acts as a visual footprint of algorithmic buying interest — creating a controlled, higher-low structure leading into the resistance wall.
🔵 2. Major Horizontal Resistance Zone (~37.20–37.40)
This level has served as a historical sell-side liquidity pool, having rejected multiple attempts to break higher over the past weeks. Each approach has been met with selling pressure, but the gradual compression of price against this zone hints at an impending breakout. Repeated testing of resistance with higher lows builds pressure — a classic ascending re-test model.
🟡 3. Break of Structure (BOS) Levels: Confirmation Zones
Minor BOS (~36.20): Confirmed. Indicates bullish intent and short-term trend shift.
Major BOS (~35.80): The ultimate invalidation level. If broken, the bullish thesis is compromised, and price may re-enter the lower consolidation zone.
A bullish BOS above 37.40 would mark a true breakout and open the door to 38.00+ levels.
🔴 4. Liquidity & Smart Money Behavior
The long wicks and deep retests into the Black Mind Curve suggest stop-loss hunts and liquidity inducement. Institutions often use such zones to trap breakout traders early, accumulate orders below swing lows, and then reverse the move. The price action around July 3–10 reflects this behavior clearly.
⚫ 5. Volume & Momentum Consideration
While not shown in the chart, volume confirmation is critical here. A breakout above resistance should ideally be supported by increased volume and momentum divergence on RSI/MACD. A failure to confirm could indicate a fakeout trap, which is not uncommon in commodity markets like Silver.
📌 Strategic Trade Scenarios:
🟢 Bullish Continuation Setup:
Trigger: Break and 4H candle close above 37.40 resistance
Retest Entry: Wait for price to retest broken resistance (now support) with bullish confirmation (engulfing, pin bar, etc.)
Targets:
TP1: 38.00 (psychological round number)
TP2: 38.60–38.90 (measured move target from structure base)
TP3: 39.50 (extension target)
Invalidation: Break below 36.00 with strong bearish volume
🔻 Bearish Rejection Scenario:
Trigger: Sharp rejection from resistance zone followed by breakdown below the Black Mind Curve and BOS levels
Confirmation: Close below 36.20 with high volume
Targets:
TP1: 35.80
TP2: 35.20 (curve base)
TP3: 34.80 (range bottom liquidity zone)
Invalidation: Return above 36.80 after rejection
📘 Market Context & Professional Insight:
This is a high-probability continuation pattern in a bullish macro context. With interest rates stabilizing and commodity demand remaining firm, silver often trails gold in performance but catches up with volatility. Traders must watch the behavior around the resistance level, as that’s where smart money will show their hand.
Institutional traders typically accumulate below resistance and engineer a breakout with controlled price action — and this chart is a textbook display of that setup. The Mind Curve structure mimics Wyckoffian schematics in the re-accumulation phase.
Timing is crucial — breakout traders should be patient and disciplined, avoiding premature entries before a valid confirmation of strength.
✅ Conclusion:
Silver (XAGUSD) is approaching a critical juncture. The chart structure suggests an imminent breakout above major resistance, supported by institutional behavior along the Black Mind Curve Support. However, traders must remain agile — watch for breakout confirmation or signs of a false move followed by distribution.
This chart embodies a calculated bullish bias, and offers a great risk-to-reward opportunity for both trend followers and breakout traders.